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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference of the incompressibility, skewness and kurtosis of nuclear matter from empirical pressures in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Within the Bayesian statistical framework we infer the incompressibility K 0 , skewness J 0 and kurtosis Z 0 parameters of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) at its saturation density ρ 0 using the constraining bands on the pressure in cold SNM in the density range of 1.3ρ 0 to 4.5ρ 0 from transport model analyses of kaon production and nuclear collective flow in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. As the default option assuming the K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 have Gaussian prior probability distribution functions (PDFs) with the means and variances of 235±30, -200±200 and -146±1728 MeV, their posterior most probable values are narrowed down to 192$^{+12}_{-16}$ MeV, -180$^{+100}_{-110}$ MeV and ${\mathrm{200}}_{-250}^{+250}$ at 68% confidence level, respectively. The results are largely independent of the prior PDFs of J 0 and Z 0 used. However, if one adopts the strong belief that the incompressibility K 0 has a uniform prior PDF within its absolute boundary of 220–260 MeV as one can find easily in the literature, the posterior most probable values of K 0 , J 0 and Z 0 shift to ${K}_{0}=22{0}_{-0}^{+6}$ MeV, ${J}_{0}=-39{0}_{-70}^{+60}$ MeV and ${Z}_{0}=60{0}_{-200}^{+200}$ MeV, respectively. While the posterior PDFs of the SNM EOS parameters depend somewhat on the prior PDF of K 0 used, the results from using different prior PDFs are qualitatively consistent. The uncertainties of all three parameters are significantly reduced especially for the J 0 and Z 0 parameters compared to their current values.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Plutonium Decorporation in a Female Nuclear Worker Treated with Ca-DTPA after Inhalation Intake

The present work models plutonium (Pu) biokinetics in a female former nuclear worker. Her bioassay measurements are available at the US Transuranium and Uranium Registries. The worker was internally exposed to a plutonium-americium mixture via acute inhalation at a nuclear weapons facility. She was medically treated with injections of 1 g Ca-DTPA on days 0, 5, and 14 after the intake. Between days 0 and 20, fecal and urine samples were collected and analyzed for 239 Pu and 241 Am. Subsequently, she was followed up for bioassay monitoring over 14 y, with additional post-treatment urine samples collected and analyzed for 239 Pu. The uniqueness of this dataset is due to the availability of: (1) both early and long-term bioassay data from a female with plutonium intake; (2) data on chelation therapy for a female; and (3) fecal measurement results. Chelation therapy with Ca- and/or Zn-salts of DTPA is known to aid in reducing the internal radiation dose by enhancing the excretion of plutonium and americium from the body. Such enhancement affects plutonium biokinetics in the human body, posing a challenge to the internal dose assessment. The current radiation dose assessment practice is to exclude the data affected by Ca-DTPA from the analysis. The present analysis is the first to explicitly model the chelation-affected bioassay data in a female by using a newly developed chelation model. Thus, the bioassay data collected during and after the Ca-DTPA administrations were used for biokinetic modeling and dose assessment. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to investigate model parameter uncertainty, based on the bioassay data and assumed prior probability distributions. A χ 2 /nData (number of data points) ≈ 1 was observed in this study, which indicates self-consistency of the data with the model. Results of this study show that the worker’s 239 Pu intake was 12 Bq, with a committed effective dose to the whole-body of 1.2 mSv and a committed equivalent dose to the bone surfaces, liver, and lungs of 37.8, 9.1, and 0.8 mSv, respectively. This study also discusses the worker’s dose reduction due to chelation treatment.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reno

Reno is a tool for creating, visualizing, and analyzing system dynamics models in Python. It additionally has the ability to convert models to PyMC, allowing Bayesian inference on models with variables that include prior probability distributions.

Martindale, Nathan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2021

X-ray computed tomography using partially coherent Fresnel diffraction with application to an optical fiber

A reconstruction algorithm for partially coherent x-ray computed tomography (XCT) including Fresnel diffraction is developed and applied to an optical fiber. The algorithm is applicable to a high-resolution tube-based laboratory-scale x-ray tomography instrument. The computing time is only a few times longer than the projective counterpart. The algorithm is used to reconstruct, with projections and diffraction, a tilt series acquired at the micrometer scale of a graded-index optical fiber using maximum likelihood and a Bayesian method based on the work of Bouman and Sauer. The inclusion of Fresnel diffraction removes some reconstruction artifacts and use of a Bayesian prior probability distribution removes others, resulting in a substantially more accurate reconstruction.

Levine, Zachary H. (ORCID:000000029928276X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

An entropy-based debiasing approach to quantifying experimental coverage for novel applications of interest in the nuclear community

This manuscript proposes a novel information-theoretic approach to the quantification of experimental relevance, i.e., coverage, to achieve optimal data assimilation results for nuclear engineering applications. Specifically, this work posits the need for a new metric, called coverage (q C ) of an application’s quantity of interest, i.e., eigenvalue or power peaking for an advanced reactor concept, defined herein as the theoretically maximum achievable reduction in the quantity’s uncertainty given measurements from a pool of experiments in a manner that is independent of the data assimilation procedure employed. Currently, reduction in a quantity’s uncertainty is strongly biased by the underlying assumptions of the assimilation procedure to account for the under-determined nature of such problems and the similarity criterion employed to identify relevant experiments. To address this challenge, this work has developed a coverage metric, q C , based on mutual information, which establishes a new conceptual framework for assessing coverage, one that is independent of the model parameters and responses degree of variations in both the experimental and application domains, i.e., linear vs non-linear, and their prior uncertainty distributions, i.e., Gaussian vs. non-Gaussian. The q C is an entropic measure capable of addressing coverage for general nonlinear problems with non-Gaussian uncertainties and inclusive of the measurement uncertainties from multiple experiments. Numerical experiments from manufactured analytical problems as well as a set of benchmarks from the ICSBEP handbook are employed to demonstrate its theoretical and practical performance as compared to the c k -based experiment selection methodology, commonly employed in the neutronic community. The manuscript then employs other well-known adaptations to existing data assimilation methodologies for nonlinear and non-Gaussian problems capable of achieving the coverage posited by q C .

Bayesian data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dimensional Reduction for Sampled Priors and Application to Photometric Redshift Distributions

A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest q from some data D involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p$($q$,$n$|$D$) $\propto$ $\mathcal{L}$($D$|$q$,$n$)$p$(q)$p$($n$), where n are some nuisance parameters with a separable prior. In some cases, the nuisance parameters are high-dimensional, and their prior p(n) is itself defined only by a set of samples that have been drawn from some other MC. The MC for the posterior will typically require evaluation of p(n) at arbitrary values of n, i.e., one needs to provide a density estimator over the full n space from the provided samples. But the high dimensionality of n hinders both the density estimation and the efficiency of the MC for the posterior. We describe a solution to this problem: a linear compression of the n space into a much lower-dimensional space u, which projects away directions in n space that cannot appreciably alter $\mathcal{L}$. The algorithm for doing so is a slight modification to principal components analysis, and is less restrictive on p(n) than other proposed solutions to this issue. We demonstrate this “mode projection” technique using the analysis of 2-point correlation functions of weak lensing fields and galaxy density in the Dark Energy Survey, where n is a binned representation of the redshift distribution n(z) of the galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing DESI DR1 full-shape analyses using HOD-informed priors

We present an analysis of DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) that incorporates Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors into Full-Shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum based on cosmological perturbation theory (PT). By leveraging physical insights from the galaxy-halo connection, these HOD-informed priors on nuisance parameters substantially mitigate projection effects in extended cosmological models that allow for dynamical dark energy. The resulting credible intervals now encompass the posterior maximum from the baseline analysis using gaussian priors, eliminating a significant posterior shift observed in baseline studies. In the ΛCDM framework, a combined DESI DR1 FS information and constraints from the DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) — including Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index — yields Ω m = 0.2994 ± 0.0090 and σ 8 = 0.836$^{+0.024}_{-0.027}$, representing improvements of approximately 4% and 23% over the baseline analysis, respectively. For the w 0 w a CDM model, our results from various data combinations are highly consistent, with all configurations converging to a region with w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This convergence not only suggests intriguing hints of dynamical dark energy but also underscores the robustness of our HOD-informed prior approach in delivering reliable cosmological constraints.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning earthquake ground motions via conditional generative modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose an artificial intelligence (AI) spectrogram generator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM). CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, when postprocessed with phase information, capturing spatially continuous Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) as well as properties such as P and S arrivals, and waveform durations, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that extracts latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. Here, we report that CGM-GM demonstrates potential for complementing physics-based simulations and non-ergodic empirical ground motion models, as well as shows promise in seismology and beyond.

geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

A multi-step nucleation process determines the kinetics of prion-like domain phase separation

Compartmentalization by liquid-liquid phase separation (LLPS) has emerged as a ubiquitous mechanism underlying the organization of biomolecules in space and time. Here, we combine rapid-mixing time-resolved small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) approaches to characterize the assembly kinetics of a prototypical prion-like domain with equilibrium techniques that characterize its phase boundaries and the size distribution of clusters prior to phase separation. We find two kinetic regimes on the micro- to millisecond timescale that are distinguished by the size distribution of clusters. At the nanoscale, small complexes are formed with low affinity. After initial unfavorable complex assembly, additional monomers are added with higher affinity. At the mesoscale, assembly resembles classical homogeneous nucleation. Careful multi-pronged characterization is required for the understanding of condensate assembly mechanisms and will promote understanding of how the kinetics of biological phase separation is encoded in biomolecules.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Milling stability identification using Bayesian machine learning

This paper describes automated identification of the milling stability boundary using Bayesian machine learning and experiments. The Bayesian machine learning process begins with the user’s initial beliefs about milling stability. This “prior” is a distribution that uses all available information, which may be based only on experience or may be informed by physics-based model predictions. Experiments are then completed to update this prior by calculating the “posterior,” a modified probabilistic description of the milling stability limit based on the new information. The approach is demonstrated and results are presented for both numerical and experimental cases.

Karandikar, Jaydeep↗
DOE OSTI2021

ARENA: Asynchronous Reconfigurable Accelerator Ring to Enable Data-Centric Parallel Computing

The next generation HPC and data centers are likely to be reconfigurable and data-centric due to the trend of hardware specialization and the emergence of data-driven applications. In this work, we propose ARENA – an asynchronous reconfigurable accelerator ring architecture as a potential scenario on how the future HPC and data centers will be like. Despite using the coarse-grained reconfigurable arrays (CGRAs) as the substrate platform, our key contribution is not only the CGRA-cluster design itself, but also the ensemble of a new architecture and programming model that enables asynchronous tasking across a cluster of reconfigurable nodes, so as to bring specialized computation to the data rather than the reverse. We presume distributed data storage without asserting any prior knowledge on the data distribution. Hardware specialization occurs at runtime when a task finds the majority of data it requires are available at the present node. In other words, we dynamically generate specialized CGRA accelerators where the data reside. The asynchronous tasking for bringing computation to data is achieved by circulating the task token, which describes the dataflow graphs to be executed for a task, among the CGRA cluster connected by a fast ring network. Evaluations on a set of HPC and data-driven applications across different domains show that ARENA can provide better parallel scalability with reduced data movement (53.9 percent). Compared with contemporary compute-centric parallel models, ARENA can bring on average 4.37× speedup. The synthesized CGRAs and their task-dispatchers only occupy 2.93mm 2 chip area under 45nm process technology and can run at 800MHz with on average 759.8mW power consumption. ARENA also supports the concurrent execution of multi-applications, offering ideal architectural support for future high-performance parallel computing and data analytics systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report Summarizing the Mechanical Properties of a Large ODS Ferritic Alloy Ingot by Forging at High Temperatures for Future Mother Tube Production

Oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) ferritic alloys are considered the benchmark fuel cladding and core structural material in advanced nuclear energy reactors that require high-temperature strength and creep properties and resistance to radiation damage. The ODS ferritic alloys including 14YWT are produced by mechanical alloying (MA), which is time-consuming and is associated with high manufacturing costs that are not beneficial to being used in advanced nuclear energy reactors. This report summarizes the accomplishments in FY24 in the INM program for producing an ODS ferritic alloy by high-deformation, high-temperature processing of reactive and ferritic alloy powders for advanced reactor fuel cladding applications. Following four hot forging experiments, it was concluded that several significant challenges were encountered that were difficult to overcome. These challenges were related to using high annealing temperatures for pressure assisted sintering processes to produce dense microstructures, but the high annealing temperatures result in long range diffusion of Ti through the bcc Fe lattice and react with the YIG particles that are distributed on the prior surfaces of the ferritic alloy powders. In addition, it was determined that the high deformations induced by forging at high temperatures were not very effective for fracturing the reactive YIG particles into smaller particles and distributing them into the interior of the ferritic alloy powders. Spark plasma sintering was attempted for shortening the time at high temperatures, which led to full densification but the microstructure characterization results still showed that Ti atoms diffused over long distances in the bcc Fe lattice and reacted with the YIG particles. Finally, a short 30 minute high intensity ball milling experiment was conducted on blended 14WT and YIG powders for inducing severe deformations that caused the initially spherical powders of 14WT decorated with the YIG particles on the surfaces to transform to flakes and fracturing of YIG particles into smaller particles that were incorporated into the bcc Fe lattice. Two forgings were performed with the high intensity milled powders: first annealing for 20 minutes at 850ºC followed by forging and second annealing for 20 minutes at 1,100ºC followed by forging. At 850ºC, Ti atoms are effectively immobile, thus allowing for densification albeit incomplete. The deformation by forging after annealing for 20 minutes at 1,100ºC favored dynamic recrystallization processes that led to nano-size grains with very high stored energy due to high dislocation density. The corresponding VH data showed significant hardening that correlated with estimated strengthening of ~1650 MPa. This hybrid processing approach combining high intensity ball milling of powder with annealing and forging showed the most promise for producing an oxide dispersing strengthened ferritic alloy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Weakly Informed Priors for FLEX Data

On behalf of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has reviewed the development and use of “weakly informed prior” (WIP) probability distributions to obtain industry-wide failure probability and rate distributions for portable “FLEX” equipment, as documented in the Pressurized Water Reactor Owner’s Group (PWROG) report, FLEX Equipment Data Collection and Analysis (PWROG 18043-P) by MM Degonish. The review includes a description of the methods used by the PWROG analysts. It also includes an implementation of those methods for comparison purposes and an implementation of two constrained-noninformative (CN) distributions for further WIP comparisons. The report documents several issues that the review identified in the development of the WIP distributions. They relate to the quality and representativeness of the current portable “FLEX” component data, the choice of informed distributions for related installed components, and the lack of verification for the factors chosen to weaken the information from the installed components. Two errors occurred in the computations: the posterior distribution of the WIP was used to modify the WIP itself, resulting in a lack of independence between the WIP and the data; and an error was made in the conversion of WIP mean and variance values to beta distributions. The INL reviewers think the WIP distributions presented in the report are untenable for use in risk assessments at the present time because of these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗