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A Bayesian inference process for system logistical planning is presented which provides a method for incorporating actual failures with prediction data for an ongoing and improving reliability estimates. The process uses the Weibull distribution, and provides a means for examining and updating logistical and maintenance support needs.
The February 1996 flare of 3C279 peaked at the highest gamma-ray intensity ever recorded for this object. Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), Advanced Satellite For Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA), Roentgen Satellite (ROSAT), International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE), Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) and 18 ground-based observatories participated in observations at various times during January and February 1996. The CGRO EGRET and RXTE light curves are correlated during the flare without any lag larger than the temporal resolution of about 1 day. We present simultaneous spectral energy distributions prior to and near the flare peak. The gamma-rays vary by more than the square of the observed infrared-optical flux change, which poses some problems for specific blazar models.
Pulsed inductive plasma accelerators are spacecraft propulsion devices in which energy is stored in a capacitor and then discharged through an inductive coil. The device is electrodeless, inducing a current sheet in a plasma located near the face of the coil. The propellant is accelerated and expelled at a high exhaust velocity (order of 10 km/s) through the interaction of the plasma current and the induced magnetic field. The Faraday Accelerator with RF-Assisted Discharge (FARAD) thruster[1,2] is a type of pulsed inductive plasma accelerator in which the plasma is preionized by a mechanism separate from that used to form the current sheet and accelerate the gas. Employing a separate preionization mechanism allows for the formation of an inductive current sheet at much lower discharge energies and voltages than those used in previous pulsed inductive accelerators like the Pulsed Inductive Thruster (PIT). A benchtop FARAD thruster was designed following guidelines and similarity performance parameters presented in Refs. [3,4]. This design is described in detail in Ref. [5]. In this paper, we present the temporally and spatially resolved measurements of the preionized plasma and inductively-accelerated current sheet in the FARAD thruster operating with a Vector Inversion Generator (VIG) to preionize the gas and a Bernardes and Merryman circuit topology to provide inductive acceleration. The acceleration stage operates on the order of 100 J/pulse. Fast-framing photography will be used to produce a time-resolved, global view of the evolving current sheet. Local diagnostics used include a fast ionization gauge capable of mapping the gas distribution prior to plasma initiation; direct measurement of the induced magnetic field using B-dot probes, induced azimuthal current measurement using a mini-Rogowski coil, and direct probing of the number density and electron temperature using triple probes.
The first meeting of the Behavioral Health and Performance (BHP) Standing Review Panel (SRP) was held in Houston, TX on November 1-3, 2009. Our task was to assess the Integrated Research Plan (IRP) related to the fields covered in the SRP charge (see section VIII). Having considered and discussed the extensive materials distributed prior to the meeting, and the highly informative briefings by the NASA BHP Human Research Program (HRP) personnel during the site visit, the SRP agreed that the IRP is comprehensive and was developed carefully. Question and answer periods with the presenters were particularly productive and helpful to the SRP. The presenters' willingness to share information and positive responses to the SRP's suggestions were greatly appreciated. Although the IRP and related documents are impressive, the SRP does have a number of recommendations regarding both the overall plan and its component parts.
These slides describe the data analysis methods that are used to determine inputs for probabilistic risk models supporting the Space Shuttle Program. Other applications can follow a similar path probably using different data sources. Statistical approaches are different and not addressed here. Topics included here: 1) Prior Distribution; 2) Likelihood Data; 3) Bayesian Updating; and 4) Uncertainty and Error. Note: This is a high-level discussion and is not intended to be a tutorial.
The increasing availability of precipitation observations from space, e.g., from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the forthcoming Global Precipitation Measuring (GPM) Mission, has fueled renewed interest in developing frameworks for downscaling and multi-sensor data fusion that can handle large data sets in computationally efficient ways while optimally reproducing desired properties of the underlying rainfall fields. Of special interest is the reproduction of extreme precipitation intensities and gradients, as these are directly relevant to hazard prediction. In this paper, we present a new formalism for downscaling satellite precipitation observations, which explicitly allows for the preservation of some key geometrical and statistical properties of spatial precipitation. These include sharp intensity gradients (due to high-intensity regions embedded within lower-intensity areas), coherent spatial structures (due to regions of slowly varying rainfall),and thicker-than-Gaussian tails of precipitation gradients and intensities. Specifically, we pose the downscaling problem as a discrete inverse problem and solve it via a regularized variational approach (variational downscaling) where the regularization term is selected to impose the desired smoothness in the solution while allowing for some steep gradients(called 1-norm or total variation regularization). We demonstrate the duality between this geometrically inspired solution and its Bayesian statistical interpretation, which is equivalent to assuming a Laplace prior distribution for the precipitation intensities in the derivative (wavelet) space. When the observation operator is not known, we discuss the effect of its misspecification and explore a previously proposed dictionary-based sparse inverse downscaling methodology to indirectly learn the observation operator from a database of coincidental high- and low-resolution observations. The proposed method and ideas are illustrated in case studies featuring the downscaling of a hurricane precipitation field.
We present the details of the Bayesian analysis of the planetary microlensing event MOA-2016-BLG-227, whose excess flux is likely due to a source/lens companion or an unrelated ambient star, as well as of the assumed prior distributions. Furthermore, we apply this method to four reported planetary events, MOA-2008-BLG-310, MOA2011-BLG-293, OGLE-2012-BLG-0527, and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950, where adaptive optics observations have detected excess flux at the source star positions. For events with small angular Einstein radii, our lens mass estimates are more uncertain than those of previous analyses, which assumed that the excess was due to the lens. Our predictions for MOA-2008-BLG-310 and OGLE-2012-BLG-0950 are consistent with recent results on these events obtained via Keck and Hubble Space Telescope observations when the source star is resolvable from the lens star. For events with small angular Einstein radii, we find that it is generally difficult to conclude whether the excess flux comes from the host star. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the lens star by measuring its proper motion relative to the source star to determine whether the excess flux comes from the lens star. Even without such measurements, our method can be used to statistically test the dependence of the planet-hosting probability on the stellar mass.
A multilateral, web-based symposium, featuring ISS Increment 66 investigations will be held on December 14, 15 and 16, 2021 beginning at 0600 CST each day. The purpose of this event is for Principal Investigators to present their science objectives, testing approach, and measurement methods to agency scientists, managers, and other investigators. Participation is encouraged to gather a global picture of the science planned to be performed on ISS during Increment 66. Please note that only Increment 66 new investigations and those that have not been covered by previous science symposia will be included. We will be in touch with the investigations’ POCs to confirm the presentations and identify the speakers as we develop the preliminary agenda for the Symposium. The agenda and additional details will be distributed prior to the symposium. Presentations will be organized by discipline and will be allotted 15 minutes to highlight the main contributions of their experiment. There will be a short question and answer period after each discipline group session is complete. Please include back-up material as needed. The presentations may be made available to ISS crew members as review material for on-orbit science preparation and/or public outreach activities. Therefore, please ensure a comprehensive presentation (additional back-up material may be provided). The presentations should briefly cover the following: - Science background and hypothesis - Investigation goals and objectives - Measurement approach - Importance and reason for ISS - Expected results and how they will advance the field - Earth benefits/spin-off applications Please note that all presentations and discussions should be limited to content approved for export and information that can be shared with participants and the general public.
The evolutionary system of mineralogy relies on varied physical and chemical attributes, including trace elements, isotopes, solid and fluid inclusions, and other information-rich characteristics, to understand processes of mineral formation and to place natural condensed phases in the deep-time context of planetary evolution. Part I of this system reviewed the earliest refractory phases that condense at T > 1000 K within the turbulent expanding and cooling atmospheres of highly evolved stars. Part II considers the subsequent formation of primary crystalline and amorphous phases by condensation in three distinct mineral-forming environments, each of which increased mineralogical diversity and distribution prior to the accretion of planetesimals >4.5 billion years ago. (1) Interstellar molecular solids: Varied crystalline and amorphous molecular solids containing primarily H, C, O, and N are observed to condense in cold, dense molecular clouds in the interstellar medium (10 < T < 20 K; P < 10−13 atm). With the possible exception of some nanoscale organic condensates preserved in carbonaceous meteorites, the existence of these phases is documented primarily by telescopic observations of absorption and emission spectra of interstellar molecules in radio, microwave, or infrared wavelengths. (2) Nebular and circumstellar ice: Evidence from infrared observations and laboratory experiments suggest that cubic H2O (“cubic ice”) condenses as thin crystalline mantles on oxide and silicate dust grains in cool, distant nebular and circumstellar regions where T ~100 K. (3) Primary condensed phases of the inner solar nebula: The earliest phase of nebular mineralogy saw the formation of primary refractory minerals that solidified through high-temperature condensation (1100 < T < 1800 K; 10−6 < P < 10−2 atm) in the solar nebula more than 4.565 billion years ago. These earliest mineral phases originating in our solar system formed prior to the accretion of planetesimals and are preserved in calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions, ultra-refractory inclusions, and amoeboid olivine aggregates.
While representation learning has been central to the rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, a key problem remains in making the learnt representations meaningful. For this the typical approach is to regularize the learned representation through prior probability distributions. However such priors are usually unavailable or are ad hoc. To deal with this, recent efforts have shifted towards leveraging the insights from physical principles to guide the learning process. In this spirit, we propose a purely dynamics-constrained representation learning framework. Instead of relying on predefined probabilities, we restrict the latent representation to follow overdamped Langevin dynamics with a learnable transition density — a prior driven by statistical mechanics. We show this is a more natural constraint for representation learning in stochastic dynamical systems, with the crucial ability to uniquely identify the ground truth representation. We validate our framework for different systems including a real-world fluorescent DNA movie dataset. Here, we show that our algorithm can uniquely identify orthogonal, isometric and meaningful latent representations.
The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.
We develop single-event risk Prior probability distributions based on historical and heritage data. The Priors can be used to bound single-event effects risk for testing, part selection and design.
Multichannel satellite image data, available as LANDSAT imagery, are recorded as a multivariate time series (four channels, multiple passovers) in two spatial dimensions. The application of parametric empirical Bayes theory to classification of, and estimating the probability of, each crop type at each of a large number of pixels is considered. This theory involves both the probability distribution of imagery data, conditional on crop types, and the prior spatial distribution of crop types. For the latter Markov models indexed by estimable parameters are used. A broad outline of the general theory reveals several questions for further research. Some detailed results are given for the special case of two crop types when only a line transect is analyzed. Finally, the estimation of an underlying continuous process on the lattice is discussed which would be applicable to such quantities as crop yield.
A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.
A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.
Wildfires represent a critical environmental hazard with multifaceted implications for ecosystems, communities, and public health [1]. The escalating frequency and intensity of wildfires globally have intensified the urgency for robust segmentation methodologies to facilitate effective mitigation, response, and recovery strategies [2]. Accurate wildfire segmentation is pivotal for delineating fire boundaries, assessing progression patterns, and prioritizing resource allocation during emergency scenarios. Furthermore, precise segmentation enables stakeholders, including policymakers, environmental scientists, and emergency responders, to formulate evidence-based strategies, thereby minimizing socio-economic disruptions and ecological degradation. Consequently, advancing wildfire segmentation techniques through innovative technological interventions remains a paramount research imperative. Although foundational in wildfire segmentation, traditional deterministic models exhibit inherent limitations that compromise their efficacy in dynamic and uncertain environments. These models often operate on rigid algorithms prioritizing deterministic classifications, thereby overlooking the inherent complexities and uncertainties associated with wildfire behavior and satellite data variability. Such deterministic frameworks tend to produce oversimplified representations that fail to capture the intricate nuances of evolving fire dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and environmental interactions [1]. Consequently, the deterministic approach’s propensity for uncertainty collapsing [1, 3] hampers the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of segmentation outcomes in real-world scenarios. Contrastingly, stochastic models offer a more nuanced and adaptable framework for wildfire segmentation. By integrating probabilistic elements into the modeling paradigm, stochastic approaches, particularly probabilistic approaches such as variational auto encoders (VAEs) [4], facilitate comprehensive uncertainty assessment, enabling researchers to quantify and incorporate uncertainties into segmentation outcomes effectively. This probabilistic nature empowers stochastic models to encapsulate variability, account for data inconsistencies, and adapt to evolving environmental conditions, enhancing segmentation accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Embracing stochastic methodologies thus catalyzes advancements in wildfire science by fostering a more holistic, adaptive, and resilient segmentation framework. Despite VAEs demonstrating significant promise in various applications, they come with inherent limitations that have garnered attention within the machine learning community. One of the primary drawbacks lies in their reliance on static priors, which essentially assume a fixed distribution for latent variables, thereby limiting the model’s flexibility to capture complex data structures effectively [5]. This static nature leads to suboptimal representations, especially when dealing with complex and high-dimensional data. Additionally, VAEs often struggle with generating sharp and realistic samples, a phenomenon commonly referred to as mode collapse [5, 7, 6]. Furthermore, the optimization process in VAEs, which involves balancing the reconstruction loss and the regularization term, can sometimes be challenging to fine-tune [7]. In recent efforts to address these shortcomings, alternative approaches like Vector Quantized Variational Auto encoders(VQ-VAEs) [7], address the challenges by incorporating discrete latent variables and leveraging techniques that enhance the quality and diversity of generated samples while maintaining efficient training dynamics. VQ-VAEs propose a dynamic prior distribution generation mechanism that diverges from the static priors commonly associated with traditional VAEs. This dynamic approach allows for more adaptive and context-aware latent variable representations, thereby potentially capturing complex data structures more effectively. Unlike autoregressive prior models such as PixelCNN, which, despite their ability to model dependencies across data dimensions, suffer from significant computational inefficiencies and lack flexibility in handling diverse datasets. In our work, we propose to use a generative quantum-compatible approach to help alleviate the shortcomings of autoregressive prior model in VQ-VAEs. Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a viable alternative prior model that can learn prior distributions in a faster and more flexible manner. In this research endeavor, we meticulously curate a state-of-the-art dataset leveraging satellite MODIS data in conjunction with VIIRS fire masks, derived from Fire Radiative Power (FRP), thereby encapsulating diverse wildfire scenarios and environmental contexts. We developed a conditional VQ-VAE architecture with the RBM prior model that is trained in a supervised manner for segmenting wildfire masks. This innovative approach synergistically harnesses deep learning capabilities, enabling the generation of segmentation maps characterized by heightened precision, granularity, and contextual relevance. Furthermore, replacing the autoregressive prior learning method proposed by the original VQ-VAE with a prior density approximation via quantum-compatible RBM facilitates expedited inference processes, augments flexibility in prior sampling, optimizes computational efficiency and establishes a groundbreaking benchmark in wildfire segmentation methodologies.
Formulas for estimating the probability of failure when testing reveals no errors are introduced. These formulas incorporate random testing results, information about the input distribution, and prior assumptions about the probability of failure of the software. The formulas are not restricted to equally likely input distributions, and the probability of failure estimate can be adjusted when assumptions about the input distribution change. The formulas are based on a discrete sample space statistical model of software and include Bayesian prior assumptions. Reusable software and software in life-critical applications are particularly appropriate candidates for this type of analysis.
Double soaking (DS) is a thermal processing route intended to produce austenite–martensite microstructures in steels containing austenite‐stabilizing additions and consists of intercritical annealing (primary soaking), followed by heating and brief isothermal holding at an increased temperature (secondary soaking), and quenching. Herein, experimental dilatometry during DS of a medium‐manganese (Mn) steel with nominally 7 wt% Mn and an ultralow residual carbon concentration, in combination with phase‐field simulations of austenite formation during secondary soaking, is presented. The feasibility of maintaining heterogeneous Mn distributions during DS is demonstrated and insight is provided on the effects of the secondary soaking temperature and prior Mn distribution on the ferrite‐to‐austenite phase transformation during the secondary soaking portion of the DS treatment.