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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of Structures and Atomization Energies of Coinage Metals, (M)n, n < 20: Extrapolation of Normalized Clustering Energies to Predict the Cohesive Energy

The geometries of the group 11 coinage metals (n = 2-20) were optimized to determine the lowest energy isomers for each cluster size, singlets for even numbers and doublets for odd numbers. For copper and silver, 2-D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 6. For gold, 2D (planar) geometries were favored up to n = 13. Normalized clustering energies were plotted as a function of cluster size (n-1/3, for n = 4-20) with various DFT functionals and the CCSD(T)-F12b method and were extrapolated to predict the bulk cohesive energy. In the case of copper and silver, there is excellent agreement between the cohesive energies predicted at the CCSD(T)-F12b level of theory and the experimental values. For gold, the CCSD(T)-F12b values needed to be corrected for spin-orbit relativistic effects to obtain good agreement with experiment. Electronic properties including the HOMO-LUMO gaps for the even clusters and the spin densities for the odd clusters were calculated. The lowest gap is predicted to occur for n = 16 where the HOMO and LUMO are very similar in shape.

Persuad, Rudradatt R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Self-Diffusion Prediction for Lennard-Jones Fluids in Pores

Predicting the diffusion coefficient of fluids under nanoconfinement is important for many applications including the extraction of shale gas from kerogen and product turnover in porous catalysts. Due to the large number of important variables, including pore shape and size, fluid temperature and density, and the fluid–wall interaction strength, simulating diffusion coefficients using molecular dynamics (MD) in a systematic study could prove to be prohibitively expensive. Here, we use machine learning models trained on a subset of MD data to predict the self-diffusion coefficients of Lennard-Jones fluids in pores. Our MD data set contains 2280 simulations of ideal slit pore, cylindrical pore, and hexagonal pore geometries. We use the forward feature selection method to determine the most useful features (i.e., descriptors) for developing an artificial neutral network (ANN) model with an emphasis on easily acquired features. Our model shows good predictive ability with a coefficient of determination (i.e., R 2 ) of ~0.99 and a mean squared error of ~2.9 × 10 –5 . Finally, we propose an alteration to our feature set that will allow the ANN model to be applied to nonideal pore geometries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced predictability of Eastern North Pacific Tropical cyclone activity using the ENSO Longitude Index

Past studies have indicated that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a major role in the interannual variability of Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The primary mechanism being the eastward displacement of the warm pool during an El Nino, which carries warm water into that basin thereby creating favorable oceanic conditions. Despite this, the question of whether an accurate knowledge of ENSO enhances seasonal predictabiity of Eastern Pacific hurricanes has not been addressed specifically. In this study, we show that unlike traditional indices of ENSO, the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI) is able to predict Eastern Pacific hurricane activity at significant lead times. By capturing changes in the location of deep convection and associated thermocline processes more accurately, ELI explains the most variability in the upper-ocean heat content in the main development region of the Eastern Pacific basin compared to other ENSO indices. These results have substantial implications for operational seasonal forecasts of Eastern Pacific hurricanes.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting images for the dynamics of stellar clusters ( π-DOC ): a deep learning framework to predict mass, distance, and age of globular clusters

ABSTRACT Dynamical mass estimates of simple systems such as globular clusters (GCs) still suffer from up to a factor of 2 uncertainty. This is primarily due to the oversimplifications of standard dynamical models that often neglect the effects of the long-term evolution of GCs. Here, we introduce a new approach to measure the dynamical properties of GCs, based on the combination of a deep-learning framework and the large amount of data from direct N-body simulations. Our algorithm, π-DOC (Predicting Images for the Dynamics Of stellar Clusters) is composed of two convolutional networks, trained to learn the non-trivial transformation between an observed GC luminosity map and its associated mass distribution, age, and distance. The training set is made of V-band luminosity and mass maps constructed as mock observations from N-body simulations. The tests on π-DOC demonstrate that we can predict the mass distribution with a mean error per pixel of 27 per cent, and the age and distance with an accuracy of 1.5 Gyr and 6 kpc, respectively. In turn, we recover the shape of the mass-to-light profile and its global value with a mean error of 12 per cent, which implies that we efficiently trace mass segregation. A preliminary comparison with observations indicates that our algorithm is able to predict the dynamical properties of GCs within the limits of the training set. These encouraging results demonstrate that our deep-learning framework and its forward modelling approach can offer a rapid and adaptable tool competitive with standard dynamical models.

Chardin, Jonathan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting the Dissolution Rate of Borosilicate Glasses using QSPR analysis based on molecular dynamics simulations

Quantitative Structure Property Relationship (QSPR) analysis based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is a promising approach for establishing the composition-property relationships of glass and other materials with complex structures. A series of 20 borosilicate and boroaluminosilicate glasses have been modeled by using MD simulations with recently developed effective potentials. Short- and medium-range structures of these glasses were analyzed and, based on these structural information, QSPR analysis of the initial dissolution rate (r0) was made and compared with measured r0 at 90°C and pH 9 using various structural descriptors such as percentage of bridging oxygen species, network connectivity and average ring size. The structural descriptors, Fnet, containing energetic information such as single bond strength and other structural information were also used. It was found that overall network connectivity, average ring size and Fnet give reasonable predictions of the r0 of studied glasses, given the conditions that the glasses are homogeneous and dissolve congruently. Modifying glass compositions to account preferential release of modifiers gives a better prediction for incongruently dissolving glasses. The results were compared with our recent work of predicting glass dissolution behavior from compositions using the topological-constraints-based models.

Du, Jincheng↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Modular System for Increasing Predictiveness for Extreme Climate Predictions

We know that climate change is poised to reshape our world, but we lack clear enough predictions about precisely how. The preponderance of these changes is associated with human activity, specifically the emission of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. Problematically, projections of climate change continue to be marred by unacceptably large uncertainties which hamper informed decision-making and cost society a chance to adapt proactively and effectively. These uncertainties stem from deficiencies in predictions of future greenhouse gas emissions, but also from inaccuracies in the representation of the physical models used to predict the climate response to such emissions. The uncertainties in projections associated with the inaccurate representation of climate physics, chemistry and biology are similar to those that plagued the first global climate models developed fifty years ago, despite more than a factor 10 8 increase in computer performance. Our transformational question is then, how can the accuracy of climate projections be dramatically improved by applying recent advances in the computational and data sciences to train the models with the wealth of data being constantly collected about the ongoing changes in the climate system?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid AI-ML and FE-based Digital Twin Predictive Modeling Framework for a PWR Coolant System Components: Updates on Multi-Time-Series-3D-Location Dependent Usages Factor Prediction

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plants (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition, the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Requiring frequent NDE inspections may lead to frequent NPP shutdowns which can lead to power outages and additional NDE inspection cost-related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing a more digital approach such as using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. The DT framework is based on limited experimental data, Artificial-intelligence (AI)-Machine-Learning (ML) and multiphysics-computationalmechanics such as finite element- (FE) based models. Given the real-time thermal-hydraulic process measurements from several existing plant sensors, the overall goal of the DT framework is to predict the cumulative usages factors or equivalent fatigue lives in real time and at any random 3D location of the components. This includes inaccessible locations such as inside the thickness or location of a component. This prediction can be at thousands to millions of 3D point clouds or locations like conventional FE-based models, but without running an FE model in real time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Predicting Material Response with Large Number of Parameters: Application to Creep Prediction in Ferritic-Martensitic Steels Using Combined Crystal Plasticity and Grain Boundary Models

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework for the physics-based model prediction of material response with a large number of parameters. The application problem presented in this work is that of predicting creep in Grade 91 steel at 600°C. The material response is defined with a physically based microstructural model with constitutive equations emulating several observed phenomena in Grade 91 and embodied into an explicit geometry mesoscale finite element model for prior austenite grains and grain boundaries. Creep within the grains and in grain boundaries are represented by crystal plasticity for dislocation motion and a physics-based model for cavity growth and nucleation, respectively. The creep behavior of this material is influenced by several parameters, some of which have a wide range of variation based on experimental data. UQ combined with microstructural modeling can discover the core microstructural causes of experimental variability, leading to improved materials with lower variability in critical long-term material properties. In this study, we investigate the model's uncertainty to identify material properties that may be modified during production to increase creep life and analyze different components of the crystal plasticity model for improvements. For this purpose, a quantity of interest is defined as time to minimum creep rate, which correlates well to the creep failure of the material. A deep neural network model was trained and validated to be used as a surrogate for the finite element model. Then, a variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed on the surrogate model to find the Sobol indices of the input parameters in respect to the output quantity of interest. The Sobol indices are used to reduce the dimensionality of the model. Generalized polynomial chaos expansion is used on the reduced basis models to propagate the uncertainty from the input parameters to the quantity of interest using the deep neural network surrogate model. These results are benchmarked against uncertainty propagation using Monte Carlo simulations. In conclusion, the UQ performed through the reduced basis model captures almost all the uncertainty in the model with significantly fewer simulations, making it possible to perform the UQ directly via simulations with the finite element model rather than surrogate machine-learned models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control for Urban Traffic Signals with Stability Guarantees

Traditional traffic signal control focuses more on the optimization aspects whereas the stability and robustness of the closed-loop system are less studied. This paper aims to establish the stability properties of traffic signal control systems through the analysis of a practical model predictive control (MPC) scheme, which models the traffic network with the conservation of vehicles based on a store-and forward model and attempts to balance the traffic densities. More precisely, this scheme guarantees the exponential stability of the closed-loop system under state and input constraints when the inflow is feasible and traffic demand can be fully accessed. Practical exponential stability is achieved in case of small uncertain traffic demand by a modification of the previous scheme. Simulation results of a small-scale traffic network validate the theoretical analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗
DOE OSTI2020

A First–Principles–Based Sub–Lattice Formalism for Predicting Off–Stoichiometry in Materials for Solar Thermochemical Applications: The Example of Ceria

Theoretical models that reliably can predict off-stoichiometry in materials via accurate descriptions of underlying thermodynamics are crucial for energy applications. For example, transition-metal and rare-earth oxides that can tolerate a large number of oxygen vacancies, such as CeO 2 and doped CeO 2 , can split water and carbon dioxide via a two-step, oxide-based solar thermochemical (STC) cycle. The search for new STC materials with a performance superior to that of state-of-the-art CeO 2 can benefit from predictions accurately describing the thermodynamics of oxygen vacancies. The sub-lattice formalism, a common tool used to fit experimental data and build temperature-composition phase diagrams, can be useful in this context. Here, sub-lattice models are derived solely from zero-temperature quantum mechanics calculations to estimate fairly accurate temperature- and oxygen-partial-pressure-dependent off-stoichiometries in CeO 2 and Zr-doped CeO 2 . Physical motivations for deriving some of the “excess” sub-lattice model parameters directly from quantum mechanical calculations, instead of fitting to minimize deviations from experimental and/or theoretical data, are identified. As a result, important limitations and approximations of the approach used are specified and extensions to multi-cation oxides are also suggested to help identify novel candidates for water and carbon dioxide splitting and related applications.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting CaO-(MgO)-Al2O3-SiO2 glass reactivity in alkaline environments from force field molecular dynamics simulations

In this investigation, force field-based molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been employed to generate detailed structural representations for a range of amorphous quaternary CaO-MgO-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-SiO{sub 2} (CMAS) and ternary CaO-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}-SiO{sub 2} (CAS) glasses. Comparison of the simulation results with select experimental X-ray and neutron total scattering and literature data reveals that the MD-generated structures have captured the key structural features of these CMAS and CAS glasses. Based on the MD-generated structural representations, we have developed two structural descriptors, specifically (i) average metal oxide dissociation energy (AMODE) and (ii) average self-diffusion coefficient (ASDC) of all the atoms at melting. Both structural descriptors are seen to more accurately predict the relative glass reactivity than the commonly used degree of depolymerization parameter, especially for the eight synthetic CAS glasses that span a wide compositional range. Hence these descriptors hold great promise for predicting CMAS and CAS glass reactivity in alkaline environments from compositional information.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting zeolites’ stability during the corrosion of nuclear waste immobilization glasses: Comparison with glass corrosion experiments

During the long-term corrosion of nuclear waste glasses under nuclear waste disposal conditions, the precipitation of zeolitic phases has been linked to a delayed acceleration in glass corrosion (known as “Stage III”). Hence, predicting the thermodynamic propensity for zeolites to form upon the dissolution of nuclear waste glasses is key to ensure their long-term performance. Here, we compile a unified, internally-consistent thermodynamic database “clay20” to estimate the stability of clay and feldspar phases relevant to nuclear waste immobilization glasses, including beidellite(Mg, Ca, Na, K), kaolinite, montmorillonite(Mg, Ca, Na, K), nontronite(Mg, Ca, Na, K), saponite(Ca, Na, K), and albite. Based on this, we report a geochemical modeling method allowing us to predict the stability of secondary phases (including zeolites, calcium–silicate–hydrate gels, and clays) upon the dissolution of nuclear waste immobilization glasses. We show that this approach offers a realistic description of the stability of the secondary phases forming during the dissolution of two archetypical model nuclear glasses (namely, the International Simple Glass, ISG, and WVUTh-203) under conditions relevant to nuclear waste disposal (T = 90°C, p = 1 bar) as a function of pH. We find that the formation of silica and clay secondary phases is thermodynamically favored at low pH (pH < 10), whereas, in contrast, zeolite (analcime) and calcium–silicate–hydrate phases are favored at high pH (pH > 10.5). This suggests that thermodynamics (i.e., not solely kinetics) plays a key role in determining the range of solution pH wherein stage III corrosion may occur, i.e., when zeolite formation is favored.

Zhen-Wu, Bi Yun↗