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DOE OSTI2022

FutureTense

Protective vaccines and reliable diagnostics are essential tools for controlling viral diseases. However, the efficacy of these tools can be diminished by mutations in viral genomes. The delay between the emergence of new viral strains and the redesign of vaccines and diagnostics allows for continued viral transmission. Is it possible to address this challenge by computationally predicting viral genome sequence evolution? Can we “future-proof” vaccines and diagnostics by targeting both current and anticipated future sequence variants? While predicting viral evolution is still an unsolved, “grand challenge” problem in biology, the large, and rapidly growing, number of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences provide an opportunity to quantify the ability of machine learning to predict viral genome sequence evolution. Towards this end, we have developed a simple computational model for predicting viral evolution at the level of individual nucleotides. The key metric for quantifying the per-base, prediction accuracy for viral evolution is the Mann-Whitney U statistic (or, equivalently, the area under the receiver operator curve). Since the Mann-Whitney U statistic is not a differentiable function, existing deep leaning packages (like Pytorch and Keras/TensorFlow) are not useful, as they require that the accuracy metric/objective function be analytically differentiable with respect to the model parameters. To overcome this challenge, we have implemented custom software, “FutureTense”, that can train a machine learning model by maximizing the non-differentiable Mann-Whitney U statistic. This software trains a machine learning model by exploring along the direction of the discrete gradient of the Mann-Whitney U statistic in the model parameter space. Parallel computing and genome sequence-specific optimizations are used to accelerate model training. The resulting machine learning model learns the observed high C->U mutation rates in the SARS-CoV-2 genome (which are potentially induced by host defenses) and provides prediction accuracies that are significantly better than one would expect from random chance. While predicting viral evolution is still quite far from a solved problem, the surprising performance of this simple model gives hope that the accuracy of predicting viral genome evolution can be further increased by more sophisticated approaches.

Gans, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning enables reconstruction of past fire regimes from charcoal-derived fire intensity and fuel composition

Background Fire is a foundational ecological process that shapes ecosystem structure, diversity, and resilience. Quantifying paleofire regime attributes such as frequency, severity, and intensity is essential for understanding the historical range of variability in fire behavior and its ecological effects. While frequency and severity are often reconstructed in paleofire studies, quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity remain limited. Recent work has shown that maximum pyrolysis temperature—a proxy for fire intensity—and plant species type can be inferred from charcoal using transmission Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. However, the sample preparation for transmission FTIR is destructive and time-consuming, limiting application and reuse of materials for other analyses. We evaluated reflectance FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive alternative for reconstructing combustion temperature and plant species from laboratory-generated charcoal. We also examined the influence of contrasting airflow environments (ambient air versus nitrogen-rich) on pyrolysis temperature and plant species reconstruction prediction accuracies and compared predictive performance between a novel, neural network–based deep learning model with the traditional modern analogue technique (MAT) using k-nearest neighbor functions. As proof of concept, we apply our enhanced methodology to ancient charcoal to demonstrate applicability at improving long-term fire regime reconstructions and the ability to link paleofire records with contemporary fire ecology. Results Our analysis shows that transmission and reflectance FTIR spectra yield comparable spectral profiles. However, sample preparation for reflectance FTIR is minimal and non-destructive, unlike transmission FTIR which is destructive. We demonstrate that oxygen environments improved reconstruction accuracy relative to nitrogen-rich conditions. Finally, our deep learning neural network (DL) achieved testing accuracies of 98.7% for temperature and 96.2% for species identification, outperforming MAT’s k-NN approach (89.8% and 65.9%, respectively). A Shapley importance analysis identified 5 key spectral regions that greatly influenced the model’s temperature or species categorization. When applied to ancient charcoal, our results show historic fires from the most recent past primarily burned at low intensities (400–500 °C), reflective of natural fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Our results corroborate charcoal morphology data that suggests all ancient charcoal originated from burned woody plant types. Conclusions By combining reflectance FTIR spectroscopy with a deep learning approach, we provide the first accuracies high enough to confidently identify both species and temperature from laboratory-produced charcoal, improving quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity and fuel composition from paleofire records. This opens a wide range of research into the link between fire and larger drivers (i.e., climate or human) and greater ecological understanding of fire regimes beyond that of burn scars or recent observations. These methodological improvements have direct relevance for fire management by improving interpretation of historical fire behavior, informing fuel–fire relationships, and providing a scalable analytical framework applicable to both long-term ecological studies and contemporary fire science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Applied Machine-Learning Models to Identify Spectral Sub-Types of M Dwarfs from Photometric Surveys

M dwarfs are the most abundant stars in the Solar Neighborhood and they are prime targets for searching for rocky planets in habitable zones. Consequently, a detailed characterization of these stars is in demand. The spectral sub-type is one of the parameters that is used for the characterization and it is traditionally derived from the observed spectra. However, obtaining the spectra of M dwarfs is expensive in terms of observation time and resources due to their intrinsic faintness. We study the performance of four machine-learning (ML) models—K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Probabilistic Random Forest (PRF), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)—in identifying the spectral sub-types of M dwarfs at a grand scale by deploying broadband photometry in the optical and near-infrared. We trained the ML models by using the spectroscopically identified M dwarfs from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release (DR) 7, together with their photometric colors that were derived from the SDSS, Two-Micron All-Sky Survey, and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. We found that the RF, PRF, and MLP give a comparable prediction accuracy, 74%, while the KNN provides slightly lower accuracy, 71%. We also found that these models can predict the spectral sub-type of M dwarfs with ~99% accuracy within ±1 sub-type. The five most useful features for the prediction are r - z, r - i, r - J, r - H , and g - z, and hence lacking data in all SDSS bands substantially reduces the prediction accuracy. However, we can achieve an accuracy of over 70% when the r and i magnitudes are available. Since the stars in this study are nearby (d ≲ 1300 pc for 95% of the stars), the dust extinction can reduce the prediction accuracy by only 3%. Finally, we used our optimized RF models to predict the spectral sub-types of M dwarfs from the Catalog of Cool Dwarf Targets for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite, and we provide the optimized RF models for public use.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural network surrogate models for equations of state

Equation of state (EOS) data provide necessary information for accurate multiphysics modeling, which is necessary for fields such as inertial confinement fusion. Here, we suggest a neural network surrogate model of energy and entropy and use thermodynamic relationships to derive other necessary thermodynamic EOS quantities. We incorporate phase information into the model by training a phase classifier and using phase-specific regression models, which improves the modal prediction accuracy. Our model predicts energy values to 1% relative error and entropy to 3.5% relative error in a log-transformed space. Although sound speed predictions require further improvement, the derived pressure values are accurate within 10% relative error. Our results suggest that neural network models can effectively model EOS for inertial confinement fusion simulation applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Continuous integration data-driven platform of industrial-scale subsurface storage for real-time analytics

This project helped address the growing need for efficient and scalable models to support geological carbon and energy storage, which are crucial for achieving net-zero emissions. Traditionally accurate high-fidelity numerical models have been used to simulate relevant storage processes under a handful of processes, however such models are computationally demanding, making uncertainty quantification impractical. Consequently, we first developed a machine learning framework, based on Graph Neural Operators (GNOs), to improving the accuracy of model predictions for a fixed computational budget. We then developed an Ensemble of Improved Neural Operators (ENO), which uses bagging and Monte Carlo dropout techniques, to further improve prediction accuracy. Lastly, we developed the way to explain progressive transfer learning methods to reduce the amount of training data and computational cost of training (i.e., reduce trainable parameters) when using our models for multiple storage sites. Our numerical investigation, which used real-world case studies, demonstrated that our framework can significantly improve the safety and efficiency of geological storage operations, with potential applications in other domains such as geothermal reservoirs and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs: Preprint

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A sorghum practical haplotype graph facilitates genome‐wide imputation and cost‐effective genomic prediction

Abstract Successful management and utilization of increasingly large genomic datasets is essential for breeding programs to accelerate cultivar development. To help with this, we developed a Sorghum bicolor Practical Haplotype Graph (PHG) pangenome database that stores haplotypes and variant information. We developed two PHGs in sorghum that were used to identify genome‐wide variants for 24 founders of the Chibas sorghum breeding program from 0.01x sequence coverage. The PHG called single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with 5.9% error at 0.01x coverage—only 3% higher than PHG error when calling SNPs from 8x coverage sequence. Additionally, 207 progenies from the Chibas genomic selection (GS) training population were sequenced and processed through the PHG. Missing genotypes were imputed from PHG parental haplotypes and used for genomic prediction. Mean prediction accuracies with PHG SNP calls range from .57–.73 and are similar to prediction accuracies obtained with genotyping‐by‐sequencing or targeted amplicon sequencing (rhAmpSeq) markers. This study demonstrates the use of a sorghum PHG to impute SNPs from low‐coverage sequence data and shows that the PHG can unify genotype calls across multiple sequencing platforms. By reducing input sequence requirements, the PHG can decrease the cost of genotyping, make GS more feasible, and facilitate larger breeding populations. Our results demonstrate that the PHG is a useful research and breeding tool that maintains variant information from a diverse group of taxa, stores sequence data in a condensed but readily accessible format, unifies genotypes across genotyping platforms, and provides a cost‐effective option for genomic selection.

Jensen, Sarah E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the effect of density functional choice and van der Waals treatment on predicting the binding configuration, loading, and stability of amine-grafted metal organic frameworks

Metal organic frameworks (MOFs) are crystalline, three-dimensional structures with high surface areas and tunable porosities. Made from metal nodes connected by organic linkers, the exact properties of a given MOF are determined by node and linker choice. MOFs hold promise for numerous applications, including gas capture and storage. M2(4,4′-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3′-dicarboxylate)—henceforth simply M2(dobpdc), with M = Mg, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, or Zn—is regarded as one of the most promising structures for CO2 capture applications. Further modification of the MOF with diamines or tetramines can significantly boost gas species selectivity, a necessity for the ultra-dilute CO2 concentrations in the direct-air capture of CO2. There are countless potential diamines and tetramines, paving the way for a vast number of potential sorbents to be probed for CO2 adsorption properties. The number of amines and their configuration in the MOF pore are key drivers of CO2 adsorption capacity and kinetics, and so a validation of computational prediction of these quantities is required to suitably use computational methods in the discovery and screening of amine-functionalized sorbents. In this work, we study the predictive accuracy of density functional theory and related calculations on amine loading and configuration for one diamine and two tetramines. In particular, we explore the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE) functional and its formulation for solids (PBEsol) with and without the Grimme-D2 and Grimme-D3 pairwise corrections (PBE+D2/3 and PBEsol+D2/3), two revised PBE functionals with the Grimme-D2 and Grimme-D3 pairwise corrections (RPBE+D2/3 and revPBE+D2/3), and the nonlocal van der Waals correlation (vdW-DF2) functional. We also investigate a universal graph deep learning interatomic potential’s (M3GNet) predictive accuracy for loading and configuration. These results allow us to identify a useful screening procedure for configuration prediction that has a coarse component for quick evaluation and a higher accuracy component for detailed analysis. Our general observation is that the neural network-based potential can be used as a high-level and rapid screening tool, whereas PBEsol+D3 gives a completely qualitatively predictive picture across all systems studied, and can thus be used for high accuracy motif predictions. We close by briefly exploring the predictions of relative thermal stability for the different functionals and dispersion corrections.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2024

Universal correlation for falling film evaporation heat transfer coefficients of water and seawater

Horizontal falling film evaporators are widely utilized in desalination industries to increase fresh water supply. However, universal correlations for seawater falling film evaporation under varied operational and geometrical conditions are simply unavailable in open literature. Thus, this study aims to develop such a universal correlation for both plain and enhanced tubes. The detailed heat transfer mechanisms are reviewed, and rational parameters are incorporated to develop the universal correlation. A dataset of 994 data points from 9 sources covering a wide range of conditions was compiled. These conditions include Reynolds numbers from 10 to 7235, heat fluxes from 7.7 to 208 kW/m -2 , saturation temperatures from 278 to 401 K, salinities from 0 to 60 gsalt kg -1 water, tube diameters from 15.8 to 50.8 mm, and liquid feeder height to diameter ratios from 1 to 2.25. Upon analysis, it was found that most of the recommended existing correlations exhibited poor predictive accuracy, as evidenced by larger MADs. The developed correlation in this study demonstrated the best predictive accuracy for the entire dataset, yielding a MAD of 16.8 % and an R 2 of 0.82. Furthermore, the performance of the new correlation was individually assessed across a broader spectrum of operational and design conditions, reflecting the individual conditions’ influences with an overall MAD of 20 %.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating explainable transfer learning for battery lifetime prediction under state transitions

Battery lifetime prediction at early cycles is crucial for researchers and manufacturers to examine product quality and promote technology development. Machine learning has been widely utilized to construct data-driven solutions for high-accuracy predictions. However, the internal mechanisms of batteries are sensitive to many factors, such as charging/discharging protocols, manufacturing/storage conditions, and usage patterns. These factors will induce state transitions, thereby decreasing the prediction accuracy of data-driven approaches. Transfer learning is a promising technique that overcomes this difficulty and achieves accurate predictions by jointly utilizing information from various sources. Hence, we develop two transfer learning methods, Bayesian Model Fusion and Weighted Orthogonal Matching Pursuit, to strategically combine prior knowledge with limited information from the target dataset to achieve superior prediction performance. From our results, our transfer learning methods reduce root-mean-squared error by 41% through adapting to the target domain. Furthermore, the transfer learning strategies identify the variations of impactful features across different sets of batteries and therefore disentangle the battery degradation mechanisms and the root cause of state transitions from the perspective of data mining. These findings suggest that the transfer learning strategies proposed in our work are capable of acquiring knowledge across multiple data sources for solving specialized issues.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking DFT Accuracy in Predicting O 1s Binding Energies on Metals

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is a powerful tool for probing the electronic structure and composition of materials, particularly metals and metal oxides of relevance to solar cells and catalysis. Density functional theory (DFT) is often used to support XPS peak assignments, but its reliability for predicting oxygen species is not well established. Here, we compile a large data set of experimental oxygen binding energies and evaluate corresponding DFT predictions. We find that as the binding energies of metal-bound atomic oxygen species increase, especially above ≈530 eV, there is a general decrease in the accuracy of DFTpredicted values. Thus, high-binding-energy atomic oxygen species, such as those proposed as active for selective Ag-catalyzed epoxidation, are less well represented. The chemical nature of the oxygen species also influences accuracy, with molecularly bound species more reliably captured across the entire range of energies. These findings illustrate the limitations of DFT for interpreting XPS spectra and provide a benchmark for improving computational methods.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanical loading prediction through accelerometry data during walking and running

ABSTRACT Currently, there is no way to assess mechanical loading variables such as peak ground reaction forces (pGRF) and peak loading rate (pLR) in clinical settings. The purpose of this study was to develop accelerometry‐based equations to predict both pGRF and pLR during walking and running. One hundred and thirty one subjects (79 females; 76.9 ± 19.6 kg) walked and ran at different speeds (2–14 km·h −1 ) on a force plate–instrumented treadmill while wearing accelerometers at their ankle, lower back and hip. Regression equations were developed to predict pGRF and pLR from accelerometry data. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation was used to calculate prediction accuracy and Bland–Altman plots. Our pGRF prediction equation was compared with a reference equation previously published. Body mass and peak acceleration were included for pGRF prediction and body mass and peak acceleration rate for pLR prediction. All pGRF equation coefficients of determination were above 0.96, and a good agreement between actual and predicted pGRF was observed, with a mean absolute percent error (MAPE) below 7.3%. Accuracy indices from our equations were better than previously developed equations. All pLR prediction equations presented a lower accuracy compared to those developed to predict pGRF. Walking and running pGRF can be predicted with high accuracy by accelerometry‐based equations, representing an easy way to determine mechanical loading in free‐living conditions. The pLR prediction equations yielded a somewhat lower prediction accuracy compared with the pGRF equations.

Veras, Lucas↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generating An Advanced Cross-section Library For HTGR Pebble Bed Depletion Calculations Using Reduced-Order Model Generation Techniques

For code development, Advanced Reactor Technologies - Gas Cooled Reactors Program (ART-GCR) rely on a collaboration with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, but the cross sections generation and the methodology definition is part of this program area goals. Based on previous studies in FY23, the size of microscopic cross section libraries increases rapidly with the number of tabulations, requiring significant amount of memory and drastically slowing down the Griffin calculations when evaluating cross sections via the multivariate linear interpolation approach. Rising to these challenges, this work investigates constructing Reduced-order Models (ROMs) for the multi-group microscopic cross sections to accelerate the cross section evaluation in Griffin. A database of multigroup cross sections is first collected considering all possible parameters that a designer could change for optimization. Down-selection of the ROM techniques afterward shows Deep Neural Network (DNN) as the best candidate when jointly consider memory efficiency, predictive accuracy, computational cost, scalability, flexibility and ease of implementation of the algorithms in comparison to the multidimensional interpolation. This work develops a specific interface that enables the cross section predictions using pre-trained DNN models into Griffin leveraging the existing ROM capabilities. DNNs have been trained for all isotopes for use in Griffin. Preliminary Griffin testing shows that DNNs exhibit exceptional predictive accuracy and the use of DNNs provides orders of magnitude improvement in memory efficiency compared to conventional interpolation techniques. With such ROM techniques, it holds great promise to further increase the fidelity of the Pebble Bed Reactor (PBR) simulation by increasing the number of tabulations/state variables during cross section evaluation, while maintaining the computational cost affordable in Griffin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

ACES-GNN: can graph neural network learn to explain activity cliffs?

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have revolutionized molecular property prediction by leveraging graph-based representations, yet their opaque decision-making processes hinder broader adoption in drug discovery. This study introduces the Activity-Cliff-Explanation-Supervised GNN (ACES-GNN) framework, designed to simultaneously improve predictive accuracy and interpretability by integrating explanation supervision for activity cliffs (ACs) into GNN training. ACs, defined by structurally similar molecules with significant potency differences, pose challenges for traditional models due to their reliance on shared structural features. By aligning model attributions with chemist-friendly interpretations, the ACES-GNN framework bridges the gap between prediction and explanation. Validated across 30 pharmacological targets, ACES-GNN consistently enhances both predictive accuracy and attribution quality for ACs compared to unsupervised GNNs. Our results demonstrate a positive correlation between improved predictions and accurate explanations, offering a robust and adaptable framework to better understand and interpret ACs. This work underscores the potential of explanation-guided learning to advance interpretable artificial intelligence in molecular modeling and drug discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.

Tayal, Kshitij↗