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At least 73 records · Page 4

Accuracy of Tilt Rotor Hover Performance Predictions

The accuracy of various methods used to predict tilt rotor hover performance was established by comparing predictions with large-scale experimental data. A wide range of analytical approaches were examined. Blade lift was predicted with a lifting line analysis, two lifting surface analyses, and by a finite-difference solution of the full potential equation. Blade profile drag was predicted with two different types of airfoil tables and an integral boundary layer analysis. The inflow at the rotor was predicted using momentum theory, two types of prescribed wakes, and two free wake analyses. All of the analyses were accurate at moderate thrust coefficients. The accuracy of the analyses at high thrust coefficients was dependent upon their treatment of high sectional angles of attack on the inboard sections of the rotor blade. The analyses which allowed sectional lift coefficients on the inboard stations of the blade to exceed the maximum observed in two-dimensional wind tunnel tests provided better accuracy at high thrust coefficients than those which limited lift to the maximum two-dimensional value. These results provide tilt rotor aircraft designers guidance on which analytical approaches provide the best results, and the level of accuracy which can be expected from the best analyses.

Felker, Fort F.↗

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

Predictions of Cockpit Simulator Experimental Outcome Using System Models

This study involved predicting the outcome of a cockpit simulator experiment where pilots used cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. The experiments were run on the NASA Ames Research Center multicab cockpit simulator facility. Prior to the experiments, a mathematical model of the pilot/aircraft/CDTI flight system was developed which included relative in-trail and vertical dynamics between aircraft in the approach string. This model was used to construct a digital simulation of the string dynamics including response to initial position errors. The model was then used to predict the outcome of the in-trail following cockpit simulator experiments. Outcome included performance and sensitivity to different separation criteria. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are noted.

Sorensen, J. A.↗

A Recursive Multi-step Machine Learning Approach for Airport Configuration Prediction

Airport configuration selection is a complex decision-making process that involves several operational and human factors. In this paper we propose a novel recursive multi-step machine learning (ML) approach to predict airport configuration. The multi-step approach guarantees stability of the predicted configuration by taking as input the configuration predicted at the previous time step. The features of the proposed model include weather data, future arrival and departure counts and current configuration. Due to the importance of arrival and departure counts in predicting the airport configuration, arrival counts are calculated using landing time predictions selected from physics-based landing time predictions available in FAA System Wide Information Management data feeds for each flight. The selection rules were developed and refined to select the most accurate time for different phases of flight. The proposed model predicts the airport configurations up to 6 hours ahead. In this paper we show the predictive performance of the proposed model for six major US airports, including Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT), Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), LaGuardia Airport (LGA) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). We trained and evaluated models on 2019 and 2020 data in order to study the effect of the pandemic and how changes in traffic patterns affected the performance of the proposed model. Results are compared with a baseline assuming no airport configuration changes. In our results for DFW, we obtained a prediction accuracy of 89.3% for 3 hours ahead prediction, and 82.8% for 6 hours ahead when applied on 2019 data.

machine learning↗

A Recursive Multi-step Machine Learning Approach for Airport Configuration Prediction

Airport configuration selection is a complex decision-making process that involves several operational and human factors. In this paper we propose a novel recursive multi-step machine learning (ML) approach to predict airport configuration. The multi-step approach guarantees stability of the predicted configuration by taking as input the configuration predicted at the previous time step. The features of the proposed model include weather data, future arrival and departure counts and current configuration. Due to the importance of arrival and departure counts in predicting the airport configuration, arrival counts are calculated using landing time predictions selected from physics-based landing time predictions available in FAA System Wide Information Management data feeds for each flight. The selection rules were developed and refined to select the most accurate time for different phases of flight. The proposed model predicts the airport configurations up to 6 hours ahead. In this paper we show the predictive performance of the proposed model for six major US airports, including Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT), Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), LaGuardia Airport (LGA) and Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL). We trained and evaluated models on 2019 and 2020 data in order to study the effect of the pandemic and how changes in traffic patterns affected the performance of the proposed model. Results are compared with a baseline assuming no airport configuration changes. In our results for DFW, we obtained a prediction accuracy of 89.3% for 3 hours ahead prediction, and 82.8% for 6 hours ahead when applied on 2019 data.

machine learning↗

Infrared Imagery of Shuttle (IRIS). Task 2, summary report

End-to-end tests of a 16 element indium antimonide sensor array and 10 channels of associated electronic signal processing were completed. Quantitative data were gathered on system responsivity, frequency response, noise, stray capacitance effects, and sensor paralleling. These tests verify that the temperature accuracies, predicted in the Task 1 study, can be obtained with a very carefully designed electro-optical flight system. Pre-flight and inflight calibration of a high quality are mandatory to obtain these accuracies. Also, optical crosstalk in the array-dewar assembly must be carefully eliminated by its design. Tests of the scaled up tracking system reticle also demonstrate that the predicted tracking system accuracies can be met in the flight system. In addition, improvements in the reticle pattern and electronics are possible, which will reduce the complexity of the flight system and increase tracking accuracy.

Chocol, C. J.↗

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low- load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the gage sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗

Evaluation of the Accuracy of the Load Prediction Equations of Low-Load Balance Calibration Data

Accuracy and reliability of the load prediction equations of a low-load calibration data set of a force balance were investigated. First, independent load prediction equations were generated from the data of a full-load and low-load machine calibration. Then, the low-load data set was processed as a set of precision check loads for the load prediction equations that were obtained from the full-load and low-load calibrations. Finally, the load prediction equations of the two calibrations were applied to four manual check load data sets that were recorded between 2009 and 2022. The residuals of the predicted calibration and check loads were compared in all cases. No systematic improvement of the load prediction accuracy was observed when the load prediction equations of the low-load calibration were applied to the check load data sets. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a full-load calibration to a six-component balance even if the balance is not used across its entire design envelope. This approach has the advantage that the resulting load prediction equations are less likely to be applied outside of the calibration load ranges. In addition, it is expected that the numerical estimates of the bridge sensitivities are more reliable assuming that the uncertainties of the applied loads and measured outputs of the calibration data are more or less constant across the load range of the balance.

strain-gage balance↗

Acoustic results of the Boeing model 360 whirl tower test

An evaluation is presented for whirl tower test results of the Model 360 helicopter's advanced, high-performance four-bladed composite rotor system intended to facilitate over-200-knot flight. During these performance measurements, acoustic data were acquired by seven microphones. A comparison of whirl-tower tests with theory indicate that theoretical prediction accuracies vary with both microphone position and the inclusion of ground reflection. Prediction errors varied from 0 to 40 percent of the measured signal-to-peak amplitude.

Watts, Michael E.↗

Enhancements to Linear Stability-Based, CFD-integrated Transition Prediction for High-Speed Flows

Combining linear stability calculations with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations has great potential for the automated modeling of high-speed flows, especially when adequate information about the configuration and the disturbance environment is available. However, a significant impediment to the applicability of this technique is the lack of an efficient method to calculate the crucial amplification ratio corresponding to the onset of transition in hypersonic flows. This ratio, also known as the "transition N-factor," is dependent upon the freestream disturbance environment as well as the surface properties of the test article. In response to the need for an engineering solution to predict the transition N-factor within conventional hypersonic wind tunnels, this paper presents a data-driven correlation that expands the existing correlations from straight circular cones with a narrow range of half angles to a broader array of axisymmetric configurations. Furthermore, when tested against a chosen dataset that was not used in its calibration, the suggested correlation shows good predictive accuracy with an RMS error of only 6.9%. Although similar accuracy may also be achieved via existing correlations based on similar datasets, predictions based on the proposed correlation have the advantage of not requiring an extensive amount of configuration-specific data. Practical applications often have access to the input parameters needed for this correlation, such as the freestream disturbance intensity, Mach number, and body-based slenderness Reynolds number. Additionally, this correlation outperforms the traditional assumption of a constant N-factor, particularly for configurations with blunted nose geometries. The development of this correlation is grounded in an extensive dataset encompassing conical models with body half-angles varying between 5 degrees and 16 degrees, Mach numbers ranging from 5 to 14, and nosetip-based Reynolds numbers approaching the transition reversal limit for blunt-nosed cones.

CFD↗

Flight Mechanics Analysis of Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator

The Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) successfully demonstrated the capability of an inflatable aeroshell. Prior to launch, flight mechanics analysis was conducted to better understand the predicted splashdown point of the re-entry vehicle and ejectable data recorder. Best estimated trajectory separation states were utilized to understand the LOFTID trajectory over the entire 36 minute launch window. Weather forecasting model were integrated into the simulation to improve trajectory prediction accuracy. Automation tools were developed to facilitate the rapid generation of trajectory predictions during operations. The resulting improvements to the flight mechanics modeling and simulation allowed for pre-launch splashdown point to be within 3 nautical miles of the actual splashdown point.

Rohan G Deshmukh↗

Enhancements to Linear Stability-Based, CFD-integrated Transition Prediction for High-Speed Flows

Combining linear stability calculations with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations has great potential for the automated modeling of high-speed flows, especially when adequate information about the configuration and the disturbance environment is available. However, a significant impediment to the applicability of this technique is the lack of an efficient method to calculate the crucial amplification ratio corresponding to the onset of transition in hypersonic flows. This ratio, also known as the "transition N-factor," is dependent upon the freestream disturbance environment as well as the surface properties of the test article. In response to the need for an engineering solution to predict the transition N-factor within conventional hypersonic wind tunnels, this paper presents a data-driven correlation that expands the existing correlations from straight circular cones with a narrow range of half angles to a broader array of axisymmetric configurations. Furthermore, when tested against a chosen dataset that was not used in its calibration, the suggested correlation shows good predictive accuracy with an RMS error of only 6.9%. Although similar accuracy may also be achieved via existing correlations based on similar datasets, predictions based on the proposed correlation have the advantage of not requiring an extensive amount of configuration-specific data. Practical applications often have access to the input parameters needed for this correlation, such as the freestream disturbance intensity, Mach number, and body-based slenderness Reynolds number. Additionally, this correlation outperforms the traditional assumption of a constant N-factor, particularly for configurations with blunted nose geometries. The development of this correlation is grounded in an extensive dataset encompassing conical models with body half-angles varying between 5 degrees and 16 degrees, Mach numbers ranging from 5 to 14, and nosetip-based Reynolds numbers approaching the transition reversal limit for blunt-nosed cones.

CFD↗

Flight Mechanics Analysis of Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID)

The Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) successfully demonstrated the capability of an inflatable aeroshell. Prior to launch, flight mechanics analysis was conducted to better understand the predicted splashdown point of the re-entry vehicle and ejectable data recorder. Best estimated trajectory separation states were utilized to understand the LOFTID trajectory over the entire 36 minute launch window. Weather forecasting model were integrated into the simulation to improve trajectory prediction accuracy. Automation tools were developed to facilitate the rapid generation of trajectory predictions during operations. The resulting improvements to the flight mechanics modeling and simulation allowed for pre-launch splashdown point to be within 3 nautical miles of the actual splashdown point.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Pioneer Venus Star Sensor

The design predictions and orbital performance verification of the solid state star scanner used in the Onboard Attitude Control of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter and Multiprobe are presented. The star sensor extended the scanner use to active despin control, and it differs from previous sensors in solid state detection, redundant electronics for reliability, larger field of view, and large dynamic spin range. The star scanner hardware and design performance based on the ability to predict all noise sources, signal magnitudes, and expected detection probability are discussed. In-flight data collected to verify sensor ground calibration are tabulated and plotted in predicted accuracy curves. It is concluded that the Pioneer Venus Star Sensor has demonstrated predictable star calibration in the range of .1 magnitude uncertainties and usable star catalogs of 100 stars with very high probabilities of detection, which were much better than expected and well within the mission requirements.

Gutshall, R. L.↗

Radio interferometric measurements for accurate planetary orbiter navigation

The use of narrowband delta-VLBI to achieve accurate orbit determination is presented by viewing a spacecraft from widely separated stations followed by viewing a nearby quasar from the same stations. Current analysis is examined that establishes the orbit determination accuracy achieved with data arcs spanning up to 3.5 d. Strategies for improving prediction accuracy are given, and the performance of delta-VLBI is compared with conventional radiometric tracking data. It is found that accuracy 'within the fit' is on the order of 0.5 km for data arcs having delta-VLBI on the ends of the arcs and for arc lengths varying from one baseline to 3.5 d. The technique is discussed with reference to the proposed Venus Orbiting Imaging Radar mission.

Poole, S. R.↗

Parameter identification applied to analytic hingeless rotor modeling

It is known that dynamic rotor inflow has a substantial effect on rotor dynamic loads. Despite the complexity of the unsteady flow problem, simple analytical models can be made useful by identifying their parameters from transient response tests without performing flow measurements. Two analytical inflow models are studied: the first is based on an equivalent blade Lock number, the second is based on a time delayed unsteady momentum inflow. In preparation for the experimental data analysis, identifications from simulated test data and an eigenvalue analysis are performed. The experimental results show that the first analytical inflow model is accurate for rotor advance ratios of 0.4 and above. For lower advance ratios, the second inflow model provides better accuracy. Prediction studies with experimental data not used for the identification are performed to determine the accuracy of the mathematical models.

Banerjee, D.↗

The Development of a Handbook for Astrobee F Performance and Stability Analysis

An astrobee F performance and stability analysis is presented, for use by the NASA Sounding Rocket Division. The performance analysis provides information regarding altitude, mach number, dynamic pressure, and velocity as functions of time since launch. It is found that payload weight has the greatest effect on performance, and performance prediction accuracy was calculated to remain within 1%. In addition, to assure sufficient flight stability, a predicted rigid-body static margin of at least 8% of the total vehicle length is required. Finally, fin cant angle predictions are given in order to achieve a 2.5 cycle per second burnout roll rate, based on obtaining 75% of the steady roll rate. It is noted that this method can be used by flight performance engineers to create a similar handbook for any sounding rocket series.

Wolf, R. S.↗

A-Priori Tuning of Modified Magnussen Combustion Model

In the application of CFD to turbulent reacting flows, one of the main limitations to predictive accuracy is the chemistry model. Using a full or skeletal kinetics model may provide good predictive ability, however, at considerable computational cost. Adding the ability to account for the interaction between turbulence and chemistry improves the overall fidelity of a simulation but adds to this cost. An alternative is the use of simple models, such as the Magnussen model, which has negligible computational overhead, but lacks general predictive ability except for cases that can be tuned to the flow being solved. In this paper, a technique will be described that allows the tuning of the Magnussen model for an arbitrary fuel and flow geometry without the need to have experimental data for that particular case. The tuning is based on comparing the results of the Magnussen model and full finite-rate chemistry when applied to perfectly and partially stirred reactor simulations. In addition, a modification to the Magnussen model is proposed that allows the upper kinetic limit for the reaction rate to be set, giving better physical agreement with full kinetic mechanisms. This procedure allows a simple reacting model to be used in a predictive manner, and affords significant savings in computational costs for simulations.

Norris, A. T.↗