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DOE OSTI2013

Revisiting the Long-Term Hedge Value of Wind Power in an Era of Low Natural Gas Prices

Expanding production of the United States’ vast shale gas reserves in recent years has put the country on a path towards greater energy independence, enhanced economic prosperity, and (potentially) reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The corresponding expansion of gas-fired generation in the power sector – driven primarily by lower natural gas prices – has also made it easier and cheaper to integrate large amounts of variable renewable generation, such as wind power, into the grid. At the same time, however, low natural gas prices have suppressed wholesale power prices across the nation, making it harder for wind and other renewable power technologies to compete on cost alone – even despite their recent cost and performance improvements. A near-term softening in policy-driven demand from state-level renewable energy mandates, coupled with a possible phase-out of a key federal tax incentive over time, may exacerbate wind’s challenge in the coming years. As wind power finds it more difficult to compete with gas-fired generation on the basis of near-term cost, it will increasingly need to rely on other attributes, such as its “portfolio” or “hedge” value, as justification for inclusion in the power mix. This article investigates the degree to which wind power can still serve as a cost-effective hedge against rising natural gas prices, given the significant reduction in gas prices in recent years, coupled with expectations that prices will remain low for many years to come. It does so by drawing upon a rich sample of long-term power purchase agreements (“PPAs”) between existing wind generators and electric utilities in the U.S., and comparing the contracted prices at which utilities will be buying wind power from these existing projects for decades to come to a variety of long-term projections of the fuel costs of gas-fired generation modeled by the Energy Information Administration (“EIA”).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2010

Methods of integrating a high penetration photovoltaic power plant into a micro grid.

The island of Lanai is currently one of the highest penetration PV micro grids in the world, with the 1.2 MWAC La Ola Solar Farm operating on a grid with a peak net load of 4.7 MW. This facility interconnects to one of Lanai's three 12.47 kV distribution circuits. An initial interconnection requirements study (IRS) determined that several control and performance features are necessary to ensure safe and reliable operation of the island grid. These include power curtailment, power factor control, over/under voltage and frequency ride through, and power ramp rate limiting. While deemed necessary for stable grid operation, many of these features contradict the current IEEE 1547 interconnection requirements governing distributed generators. These controls have been successfully implemented, tested, and operated since January 2009. Currently, the system is producing power in a curtailed mode according to the requirements of a power purchase agreement (PPA).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market (2018 Data)

Green power refers to renewable electricity voluntarily purchased by retail electricity customers. Renewable energy sources for green power include solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and small-scale hydropower. This report summarizes data on the various ways in which voluntary purchasers - including residential, commercial, and institutional customers - purchase green power. We summarize key historic trends in U.S. voluntary green power markets and the current status of green power sales through seven products: utility green pricing programs, utility renewable contracts, competitive suppliers, unbundled renewable energy certificates, community choice aggregations, power purchase agreements, and community solar.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2017 Data)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market (2021 Data)

Green power refers to renewable electricity voluntarily purchased by retail electricity customers. Renewable energy sources for green power include solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and small-scale hydropower. This report summarizes data on the various ways in which voluntary purchasers including residential, commercial, and institutional customers purchase green power. We summarize key historic trends in U.S. voluntary green power markets and the current status of green power sales through seven products: utility green pricing programs, utility renewable contracts, competitive suppliers, unbundled renewable energy certificates, community choice aggregations, and power purchase agreements. It includes discussion of how the voluntary market may impact the grid.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Integration: Key Challenges for Data Centers, Nuclear Stakeholders, and Utility Operators

he exponential growth of data centers—driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing—is reshaping the U.S. energy landscape, presenting urgent challenges and transformative opportunities for data center developers, nuclear energy providers, and utility operators. As data centers are projected to consume up to 12% of U.S. electricity by 2028, stakeholders must address rapid deployment needs, grid congestion, and the demand for reliable, high-quality power. This presentation explores the multifaceted barriers to integrating data centers with nuclear and utility infrastructure, including land use constraints, public perception, regulatory complexity, and workforce alignment. It highlights the distinct priorities and operational cultures of each sector, and the friction that arises from misaligned planning horizons and risk tolerances. We examine collaborative strategies such as co-siting, hybrid power-purchase agreements, unified community engagement, and innovative financing models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Status and Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Green Power Market (2021 Data)

This data book provides certain data behind figures and tables found in the NREL presentation "Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market (2021 Data)." These data reflect estimates based on the best available data. Excluded Data This data book excludes data for certain figures using confidential survey data or purchased data for which NREL does not own the rights. In particular, renewable energy certificate (REC) price data are not included in this data book Rounding: Some estimates may be slightly inconsistent across tabs due to estimate rounding Citation for the data: E. O'Shaughnessy and J. Heeter. 2022. Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market. Golden, CO: NREL. For more information: contact Jenny Heeter (jenny.heeter@nrel.gov). For more information on voluntary green power markets see NREL's resources at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/green-power.html. Acronyms CCA Community choice aggregation MWh Megawatt hour PPA Power purchase agreement RECs Renewable energy certificate

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing the physical design and layout of a resilient wind, solar, and storage hybrid power plant

We report as wind and solar technologies improve and their costs decrease, the share of power produced by these sources will increase. As the market penetration increases, these power sources will need to provide grid services, such as dispatchability, in addition to providing energy. One way to reduce variability, provide higher quality power to the grid, and address local grid stability issues is through colocating wind and solar power plants. In addition to operating reliably during normal operating conditions, in scenarios with high penetrations of renewable generation, it is important that these hybrid plants can withstand production disruptions and continue to supply power despite prolonged resource reduction, extreme weather events, or other disruptions. In this paper, we present a methodology to optimize a wind-solar-battery hybrid power plant down to the component level that is resilient against production disruptions and that can continually produce some minimum required power. We introduce the models and assumptions we used to simulate a hybrid power plant as well as the design variable parameterization and specific methods we used to optimize the plant. We demonstrate the performance of our method by comparing a plant optimized for different objectives, generation outage durations, minimum power requirements, and power purchase agreements. Although the plant design is sensitive to model parameters and various other assumptions, our results demonstrate some of the optimal designs that occur in different scenarios and what one should expect when designing a hybrid wind-solar-storage power plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Financing Microgrids in the Federal Sector

Recent high-impact events such as hurricanes and wildfires highlight the need for energy system resilience. One potential impact of these events is the loss of utility grid power to federal sites, negatively affecting the ability to carry out their missions. Depending on the need to sustain critical functions, it may be important to continue operations during an outage of the electric grid, or at least have power restored quickly after the event. One approach to addressing this need is through a microgrid. Microgrids can provide a more reliable solution than the traditional approach of using a backup generator at individual buildings. A microgrid can enhance a site’s electrical power system during normal operations, as well as provide reliable backup power to critical loads when electric utility power is interrupted. Many times, certain components of a microgrid (and potentially the entire system) can be justified economically and paid for out of energy savings or avoided costs. In cases where savings can cover the project costs, one of several privately financed procurement mechanisms may be used to implement the project. Procurement options available to all federal agencies include utility energy services contracts (UESC), energy savings performance contracts (ESPC), and utility services contracts (USC); other mechanisms such as a power purchase agreement (PPA), enhanced use lease (EUL), and utility privatization (UP) may also be useful to agencies that have the authority to use them. Implementing a microgrid in a comprehensive effort that also includes energy efficiency can provide an important savings component, while reducing power requirements for critical loads, thus reducing the cost of the microgrid and associated distributed energy resources (DER). However, it can be difficult to achieve enough savings and avoided costs to cover the entire microgrid system, so leveraging these avoided costs in combination with appropriated funds may be necessary to implement the full project. When a site is deciding if a microgrid is the best solution, activities early in the process include identifying critical loads and existing DERs, conversations with the local electric utility, and implementation options that work best for the agency and site. This paper explores procurement options and agreements that may be useful to federal agencies interested in implementing microgrids at their sites. Microgrid complexities, implementation considerations, and suggestions to get started are also discussed. This information will be most useful to agencies when they are exploring electric energy system resilience options and/or considering different procurement options to meet their needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Analysis of Nuclear-Powered Data Center Scenarios

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for nuclear energy to meet the growing energy demands of data centers (DCs). It evaluates the technical, economic, and socio-environmental implications of coupling Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) with DCs, providing initial responses to several key research questions: What is the potential increased energy demand from DCs in the U.S., in the short, medium and long term? The U.S. is experiencing a rapid increase in energy demand from DCs, with projections indicating a total increase of 24-74 GWy(e) by 2028. Meeting this demand with nuclear energy would require 27–85 GWe of installed capacity. While this surge is expected to slow in the long term, the DC industry needs reliable, scalable, and clean energy sources. How much nuclear capacity can be deployed to meet DC demand and in which timeframe? Several pathways for increasing nuclear capacity were identified, including uprates, restarts of recently retired reactors, power purchase agreements with existing fleet, and new construction. Approximately 20‒28 GWe of nuclear capacity could be dedicated to DCs by the early 2030s. How much High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) would be needed to support some nuclear deployment scenarios for DCs? Meeting the deployment targets announced by Google and Amazon for the Kairos Power Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor or KP-FHR (~500 MWe by 2035) and the Xe-100 (~1 GWe by 2040), respectively, requires ramping up 19.75% enriched HALEU production to ~6 t/yr by 2040. What types of nuclear energy/DC coupling options exist, and what are the different benefits/challenges? Five coupling options were analyzed, ranging from grid-connected configurations to colocated, behind-the-meter setups. Key design considerations include the proximity to high- and/or medium-voltage transmission lines, the desired internal fault tolerance, and the sources of alternative/backup power during outages. Each coupling option offers unique benefits and challenges in terms of reliability, system costs, regulation, timeline, etc. A list of NPP/DC deployment scenarios was developed, considering existing or newly built NPP or DC projects. Colocated DCs with new small modular reactors or large reactors on greenfield and brownfield sites are the focus of this report. What types of reactors, especially what size, may be incentivized by DCs? Reactor sizing optimization revealed that the ideal reactor size and number of units depend on DC demand, coupling configurations defined in this report, and other economic factors. Larger reactors are preferred for high-demand DCs and grid-connected systems, while larger number of smaller reactors are better suited for DC configurations without grid backup. Which sites may be compatible with co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Siting those projects is a complicated evaluation factoring local water resources, grid connection availability and reliability, IT infrastructure, local work force, proximity to population zones, etc. For this effort greenfield and brownfield sites such as retired coal-fired plants were used to evaluate this question. This evaluation is not meant to recommend any particular site but it highlights key siting criteria and demonstrates large-scale site availability. What are the socio-economic impacts of co-located nuclear-powered DCs? Those projects generate substantial economic benefits to the local economy, particularly in urban settings. Hyperscale DCs colocated with nuclear power plants (sized around 1 GW of power) can create nearly 1,700 jobs for annual operations and more than 7,300 jobs among the supply chain and local businesses as a result of increased household spending. Rural projects also provide significant benefits, but at lower magnitudes compared to urban deployments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2012

System Advisor Model, SAM 2011.12.2: General Description

This document describes the capabilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), Version 2011.12.2, released on December 2, 2011. SAM is software that models the cost and performance of renewable energy systems. Project developers, policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and researchers use graphs and tables of SAM results in the process of evaluating financial, technology, and incentive options for renewable energy projects. SAM simulates the performance of solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and conventional power systems. The financial model can represent financing structures for projects that either buy and sell electricity at retail rates (residential and commercial) or sell electricity at a price determined in a power purchase agreement (utility). Advanced analysis options facilitate parametric, sensitivity, and statistical analyses, and allow for interfacing SAM with Microsoft Excel or with other computer programs. SAM is available as a free download at http://sam.nrel.gov. Technical support and more information about the software are available on the website.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

2018 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. Highlights of this year’s report include: ~Wind power capacity additions continued at a robust pace in 2018: $11 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2018. In 2018, wind energy contributed 6.5% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and more than 30% in three of those states—Kansas, Iowa, and Oklahoma. 232 gigawatts of wind are seeking transmission interconnection, 2% of which represents proposed wind plants paired with storage. ~Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance, and taller towers are on the horizon. The average 2018 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 through 2017 was 42%, compared to an average of 31% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 24% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen to $700–$900/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2018 was $1,470/kW, down 40 percent since the peak in 2009 and 2010. ~Wind energy prices are at historical lows: After topping out at 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to below 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Solar PPA prices have declined precipitously, pressuring wind’s competitive position. ~The grid-system value of wind has declined over the last decade, but rebounded over the last two years. The value of wind in wholesale power markets is impacted by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind in 2018 was the lowest in the Southwest Power Pool and Texas (average of $17/MWh and $18/MWh, respectively) whereas the highest-value market was New England (at $41/MWh). Wind energy prices are generally competitive with these value estimates. ~The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (75-90%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the nacelle. Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 114,000 full-time workers at the end of 2018. ~Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions of 9,000-12,000 MW in 2019 and 11,000-15,000 in 2020, with market contraction anticipated beginning in 2021 as those tax incentives are phased out.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar +: Clean Energy Strategies for the Sunshine State (Final Technical Report (FTR) of the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR))

This reports on a four-year effort to provide foundational research, analysis, strategies and assistance to help Florida, and other states that might learn from this work, to grow solar energy in conjunction with other distributed energy resources by addressing and overcoming existing barriers, and in way that delivers increased value. The start of this effort coincided with an inflection point of sorts into a new dawn for solar energy in Florida, where the Sunshine state’s national ranking in total installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has rose from 13th to 4th. Florida has now become the national leader in annual utility-scale solar growth as dozens of large plants have come online. Also, during this time, Florida utilities have expressed a strong and growing interest in understanding the role of energy storage and how to best plan for and deploy this unique resource as part of strategies to grow solar. The utility-scale solar growth experienced has been fueled by the economics of solar cost-parity with natural gas combined cycle plants and Florida Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of cost-recovery for the Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU’s), primarily through the Solar Base Rate Adjustment (SoBRA) mechanism. This has led to gigawatts (GW’s) of rate-based solar capacity additions over several years, along with fairly significant amounts of energy storage. Meanwhile, municipal electric utilities, which, collectively, are the third largest source of power in the state, have been increasing solar considerably through power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and are on track to have close to 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2024. Florida’s municipal utilities and the Florida Municipal Electric Association (FMEA) have been key partners in the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR), formed to carry out this effort. The six largest of these have been Core Team utilities, engaging throughout the project in weekly calls, discussions, and project direction, participating in and hosting workshops and benefiting from technical assistance in several areas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Black-Box Optimization for Design of Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaic Hybrid Systems with Optimal Dispatch Decisions

The hybridization of concentrating solar power (CSP) and photovoltaics (PV) can enable dispatchable renewable electricity generation at a lower price than current stand-alone CSP systems. However, designing a CSP-PV hybrid system can be challenging because of the many degrees of freedom in design that affect the internal and external system interactions and trade-offs. We develop a methodology to determine optimal designs for CSP-PV hybrids by implementing NLopt's derivative-free, or “black-box,” algorithms around pre-existing CSP-PV hybrid simulation software that utilizes the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s System Advisor Model (SAM); we then employ a dispatch optimization model to determine operational decisions that maximize a plant’s profits. We present optimal designs for CSP-PV hybrid systems dispatching against four time-of-delivery (ToD) pricing structures. NLopt’s algorithms can improve the base case design’s power purchase agreement (PPA) price by 15% to 21%, depending on the ToD pricing structure. In addition, we present the resulting optimal CSP-PV hybrid design’s annual performance metrics, which tend to have capacity factors between 50% and 62%, but are able to generate electricity during the year’s highest-valued periods about 90% of the time. Lastly, we investigate the trade-offs between capacity factor and PPA price using Pareto fronts and demonstrate that, for some ToD pricing structures, the system capacity factor can increase by 20% but at the expense of a 2% increase in PPA price.

black-box↗

DOE OSTI2018

2017 Wind Technologies Market Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. Highlights of this year’s report include: -Wind power capacity additions continued at a rapid pace in 2017: $11 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2017. In 2017, wind energy contributed 6.3% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and more than 30% in four of those states—Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota. -Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance, and taller towers appear to be on the horizon. The average 2017 capacity factor among projects built from 2014 through 2016 was 42%, compared to an average of 31.5% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 23.5% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. -Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen from their highs in 2008 to $750–$950/kW. Overall, the average installed cost of wind projects in 2017 was $1,610/kW, down $795/kW from the peak in 2009 and 2010. -Wind energy prices remain low: After topping out at 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to around 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country (such as Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas). These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 105,000 full-time workers at the end of 2017. For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (70-90%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the turbine. -Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions of 8,000 to 11,000 MW/year from 2018 to 2020, with market contraction anticipated beginning in 2021 as those tax incentives are phased out.

17 WIND ENERGY↗