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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap on advanced and / real-time characterisation of solid state materials and devices for energy applications

A strong societal and political drive is motivating the development and optimization of novel energy conversion and storage systems for decarbonization. The successful implementation of solid state devices such as fuel cells and secondary batteries depends, however, on achieving ambitious targets in terms of performance, reliability and cost competitiveness. Research and technology are addressing these needs through a holistic approach including exploration of new materials and nanoarchitectures, as well as system engineering. These significant efforts require the support of appropriate characterization tools capable of assessing nanometer-scale phenomena such as concentration profiles of ionic and electronic charges, local chemical compositions and their evolution over time across interfaces. This roadmap provides an overview of selected advanced characterization techniques for energy materials and devices. Specific focus is put on in situ/operando methods for probing electrochemical phenomena in real-time under realistic working conditions. Experts in the field provide an extensive review of the current state of the art in 2025 and the current and future challenges for the characterization of local chemistry and kinetics in the bulk of the material, in nanoarchitectures (e.g. thin films) and at the interfaces (e.g. grain boundaries, phase contacts, solid/liquid and solid/gas interfaces) . The aim is to provide a detailed guide to the techniques, describing opportunities and bottlenecks for their practical deployment and examples of successful applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Finding diverse ways to improve algebraic connectivity through multi-start optimization

The algebraic connectivity, also known as the Fiedler value, is a spectral measure of network connectivity that can be increased through edge addition. We present an algorithm for producing many diverse ways to add a fixed number of edges to a network to achieve a near optimal Fiedler value. Previous Fielder value optimization algorithms (i.e. the greedy algorithm) output only one solution. Obtaining a single solution is rarely good enough for real-world network redesign problems, as practical constraints (political, physical or financial) may prevent implementation. Our algorithm takes a multi-start optimization approach, adding a random initial edge and then applies a greedy heuristic to improve the Fiedler value. The random choice moves us to a new region of the search space, enabling discovery of diverse solutions. Additionally, we present a Determinantal Point Process framework for quantifying diversity. We then apply a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique to sift through the large number of output solutions and locate a smaller, more manageable collection of highly diverse solutions that can be presented to network redesign engineers. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on real-world graphs with varied structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Socioeconomic Effects of Pension Spending: Evidence from Spain

The purpose of this study is to provide broader understanding of the significant role that the pension system has in the Spanish economy by estimating the sectoral production, employment and income sustained by pensioners' consumption. Based on input-output tables by the World Input-Output Database and consumption data from the Household Budget Survey by the Spanish Statistical Office, a demoeconomic model is applied to quantify the direct impacts, indirect impacts from interindustry links and induced impacts from income-consumption connections over a nine-year period (2006–2014). Then, the factors driving the evolution of total output, employment and value added during such period have been examined by using structural decomposition analysis. The growing participation of consumption by pensioner households in final demand had proven crucial during the 2008 crisis to alleviate the negative trend in production and employment derived from the collapse in consumption suffered by the rest of households. Determining the underlying factors driving changes in both employment and income during the 2008 crisis can be of interest in political decision-making on the sustainability of the Spanish pension system. The results of estimating both the employment and income supported by pensioners' consumption reveal the significant stabilizing effect of the public spending on pensions, particularly during the 2008 crisis. The current Spanish approach of attaining the pension system sustainability by merely reducing social protection costs ignores the adverse consequences of a lower pensioners' demand. This paper addresses an alternative view in which pension spending is not considered a burden on economic growth but rather a means of improving the level of production and employment.

employment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Image Processing Techniques to Identify and Quantify Spatiotemporal Carbon Cycle Extremes

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human activities through fossil fuel emissions and land use changes have increased climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts that have led to and are expected to increase the occurrence of carbon cycle extremes. Carbon cycle extremes represent large anomalies in the carbon cycle that are associated with gains or losses in carbon uptake. Carbon cycle extremes could be continuous in space and time and cross political boundaries. Here, we present a methodology to identify large spatiotemporal extremes (STEs) in the terrestrial carbon cycle using image processing tools for feature detection. We characterized the STE events based on neighborhood structures that are three-dimensional adjacency matrices for the detection of spatiotemporal manifolds of carbon cycle extremes. We found that the area affected and carbon loss during negative carbon cycle extremes were consistent with continuous neighborhood structures. In the gross primary production data we used, 100 carbon cycle STEs accounted for more than 75% of all the negative carbon cycle extremes. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the magnitude of carbon cycle STEs and attribution of those STEs to climate drivers as a function of neighborhood structures for two observational datasets and an Earth system model simulation.

Sharma, Bharat↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning Scene Classification Experiments in Automatic Detection of Slums on Planetscope Imagery

Population growth is increasingly happening in slum settlements of the large urban centers in the Global South. The term "slum" encompasses a wide range of communities, located mostly in underserved areas, and often exhibiting distinct structural and functional informalities with a relatively high concentration of marginalized populations. To address the issues confronting slums for effective planning and development, including the realistic estimation of the resident population, identifying them accurately is fundamental. Given the disagreements over a universal definition, diverse characteristic features, and socio-political limitations, global detection of slums is a veritable challenge. In this paper, we present experiments in slum detection using a scene classification algorithm and 3-meter spatial resolution satellite imagery. We train and evaluate the model for slum detection in Mumbai, India for the year 2023 and test the temporal generalization of the trained model on Mumbai in 2020 and 2018. In addition, we explore the pathways toward geographic generalization to Kolkata and Delhi (India). We discuss several limitations in the workflow and model, situate our findings in the existing literature, and suggest improvements and alternatives. With this, we establish baseline methods and experiments as a first step towards developing an image-based global slum detection framework and algorithm. This work adds to the community discussion on methods, data challenges, and open questions related to the detection of slums globally. With this research, we hope to improve our understanding of human settlements, especially in critical areas, improve population estimates, and help measure progress towards the sustainable development goals.

Arndt, Jacob↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agentic AI and the Cyber Arms Race

Here, in this article, we examine the implications for cyberwarfare and global politics as agentic artificial intelligence becomes more powerful and enables the broad proliferation of capabilities only available to the most well-resourced actors today.

Cybersecurity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Utility-Privacy Trade-Off: Impacts of Semantic and Visit Types Ambiguities on Human Mobility Simulation

Humans are in perpetual movement, constantly traversing buildings, cities, waters, oceans, and countries. Mobility stands out as a major driving force shaping our modern societies. Capturing and explaining human behavior in a world of eight billion distinct mobility agendas is a complex challenge. With the rise of interconnected devices and platforms, such as smartphones, wearables, and point-of-interest data, largescale behavioral data has become more accessible, enabling rich insights into mobility patterns. However, the widespread availability of such data introduces significant ethical challenges. Detailed mobility data can inadvertently reveal sensitive personal information, including individuals' locations, habits, social interactions, and even political or religious affiliations. Beyond privacy breaches, the ethical implications of uncovering and potentially manipulating underlying behavioral patterns demand attention. Striking a balance between the utility of mobility models and the protection of individual privacy is therefore paramount. This paper explores the utility-privacy trade-offs in human mobility modeling, focusing on the impacts of introducing semantic and visit type ambiguities. By systematically examining how these ambiguities affect the fidelity of simulated trajectories and privacy risks, we provide a framework for evaluating ethical and privacy-conscious modeling practices. Our findings emphasize the need for methods that safeguard privacy without undermining the usefulness of mobility models, contributing to the responsible advancement of mobility science in alignment with ethical standards and societal expectations.

Amichi, Licia [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000177631394)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Donald J. Trump’s Presidency in Cyberspace: A Case Study of Social Perception and Social Influence in Digital Oligarchy Era

In the past few years, with the rapid growth of digital technologies, Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms have become the digital oligarchies, which have the enormous capabilities to potentially control what is discussed in cyberspace. In the digital oligarchy era, social perception and social influence in different complex social systems have evolved quickly. In this article, we conducted large-scale empirical studies on social perception and social influence regarding the Trump phenomenon from personal perception, media, and public attention perspectives. We found that there exist obvious correlations between the posting behavior of Trump and the attention of news media. By constructing public attention networks using complex networks based on Google search information, we further reveal that digital platforms could affect social perception and social influence significantly. Especially, we obtained that the public attention can always be influenced by the political moments.

digital oligarchy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of a coastal acoustic buoy for cetacean detections, bearing accuracy and exclusion zone monitoring

Abstract There is strong socio‐political support for offshore wind development in US territorial waters and construction is planned off several east coast states. Some of the planned development sites coincide with important habitat for critically endangered North Atlantic right whales. Both exclusion zones and passive acoustic monitoring are important tools for managing interactions between marine mammals and human activities. Understanding where animals are with respect to exclusion zones is important to avoid costly construction delays while minimizing the potential for negative impacts. Impact piling from construction of hundreds of offshore wind turbines likely require exclusion zones as large as 10 km. We have developed a three‐hydrophone passive acoustic monitoring system that provides bearing information along with marine mammal detections to allow for informed management decisions in real‐time. Multiple units form a monitoring system designed to determine whether marine mammal calls originate from inside or outside of an exclusion zone. In October 2021, we undertook a full system validation, with a focus on evaluating the detection range and bearing accuracy of the system with respect to right whale upcalls. Five units were deployed in Mid‐Atlantic waters and we played more than 3500 simulated right whale upcalls at known locations to characterize the detection function and bearing accuracy of each unit. The modelled results of the detection function error were then used to compare the effectiveness of a bearing‐based system to a single sensor that can only detect a signal but not ascertain directivity. Field trials indicated maximum detection ranges from 4–7.3 km depending on source and ambient noise levels. Simulations showed that incorporating bearing detections provide a substantial improvement in false alarm rates (6 to 12 times depending on number of units, placement and signal to noise conditions) for a small increase in the risk of missed detections inside of an exclusion zone (1%–3%). We show that the system can be used for monitoring exclusion zones and clearly highlight the value of including bearing estimation into exclusion zone monitoring plans while noting that placement and configuration of units should reflect anticipated ambient noise conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Our Renewable Energy Future: The Remarkable Story of How Renewable Energy Will Become the Basis for Our Lives

Our Renewable Energy Future delves into the clean energy technology evolution and where our energy system is going. While the book's foundation is technology innovation, it brings a unique perspective that technology alone is not what has brought about the explosive growth of renewable energy and offers fresh insights into how technology, economics, social dynamics, policy, and geopolitics are forces affecting our energy future. This book is a culmination of Dr Arent's lifelong passion for energy, sustainable development, and renewable energy technology. It covers the journey of evolving technology, economics, political economy and geopolitics of clean energy over the last 40 years and provides insights for the coming decades. From a technology perspective, the book traces the arc of recent innovations and synthesizes innovations across multiple interacting perspectives into a description of Our Renewable Energy Future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

ARIC 2019 workshop report: The 2nd ACM SIGSPATIAL International Workshop on Advances in Resilient and Intelligent Cities: Chicago, IL, USA November 5, 2019

The advancements in sensor technology and ubiquity of connected devices has enabled the generation of large volume of disparate, dynamic and geographically distributed data both by scientific communities and citizens. With astonishing technological innovations and convergence, there have been major changes in peoples daily activities and social interaction. The socio-technological innovations motivate the concept of smart and connected cities. A smart city, however, is subjected to the same challenges as a conventional city, such as environmental damages, hazard impacts, access to services and resources, due to continuous population and economic growth. Therefore, it is imperative to improve our understanding of Resilient and Intelligent Cities in order to leverage technologies and artificial intelligence to tackle the challenges cities face, which range from climate change, public health, traffic congestion, economic growth, to digital divide, social equity, political movements, and cultural conflicts, among others.

Kar, Bandana↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ard [SWR-25-18]

A wind farm optimization suite for wind energy that is built for modular, gradient-enabled multi-disciplinary and multi-fidelity optimizations. Dig into wind farm design. An ard is a type of simple and lightweight plow, used through the single-digit centuries to prepare a farm for planting. The intent of Ard is to be a modular, full-stack multi-disciplinary optimization tool for wind farms. The problem with wind farms is that they are complicated, multi-disciplinary objects. They are aerodynamic machines, with complicated control systems, power electronic devices, social and political objects, and the core value (and cost) of complicated financial instruments. Moreover, the design of one of these aspects affects all the rest! Ard seeks to make plant-level design choices that can incorporate these different aspects and their interactions to make wind energy projects more successful.

Frontin, Cory [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temporal Dynamics of Place and Mobility

Despite variations in the population, climate, economics, politics, and culture, every country and city around the world shares the same time constraints: there are only 24 hours per day. Yet, the time-dependent activity patterns of when people interact with or move between public, private, and commercial locations change across space and across spatial scales. The temporal dynamics of a place reveal unique patterns based on the complex social, economic, and cultural interactions of humans across the built environment. The continued expansion of multi-modal temporal and geospatial data has attracted many disciplines to study temporal dynamics, each with its own interests, data, methods, and use cases. A comprehensive understanding of how the temporal patterns of a place are created, disrupted, and evolve is reliant on disciplines collaborating and sharing their unique perspectives. This chapter highlights ongoing work in this field and proposes core research questions that should be pursued with the appropriate collaboration and synthesis of data.

Sparks, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data for Training and Testing Radiation Detection Algorithms in an Urban Environment

The US government routinely performs radiological response deployments to search for the presence of illicit nuclear materials (e.g., highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium) in a specified area. The deployments can be intelligence driven, in support of law enforcement, and for planned events such as WrestleMania, presidential inaugurations, or political conventions. In a typical deployment, radiation detection systems carried by human operators or mounted on vehicles move in a clearing pattern through the search area. Search teams rely on radiation detection algorithms running on these systems in real time to alert them to the presence of an illicit threat source. The detection and identification of sources is complicated by large variation of natural radiation background throughout a search area and the potential presence of localized non-threat sources such as patients undergoing treatment with medical isotopes. As a result, detection algorithms must be carefully balanced between missing real sources (false negatives) and reporting too many false alarms (false positives).The purpose of this data set is to spur innovations in detecting, identifying, and localizing nuclear materials inurban search missions.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗