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At least 73 records · Page 4

Modeling the Enceladus dust plume based on in situ measurements performed with the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer

We analyzed data recorded by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer on board the Cassini spacecraft during Enceladus dust plume traversals. Our focus was on profiles of relative abundances of grains of different compositional types derived from mass spectra recorded with the Dust Analyzer subsystem during the Cassini flybys E5 and E17. The E5 profile, corresponding to a steep and fast traversal of the plume, has already been analyzed. In this paper, we included a second profile from the E17 flyby involving a nearly horizontal traversal of the south polar terrain at a significantly lower velocity. Additionally, we incorporated dust detection rates from the High Rate Detector subsystem during flybys E7 and E21. We derived grain size ranges in the different observational data sets and used these data to constrain parameters for a new dust plume model. This model was constructed using a mathematical description of dust ejection implemented in the software package DUDI. Further constraints included published velocities of gas ejection, positions of gas and dust jets, and the mass production rate of the plume. Our model employs two different types of sources: diffuse sources of dust ejected with a lower velocity and jets with a faster and more colimated emission. From our model, we derived dust mass production rates for different compositional grain types, amounting to at least 28 kg s –1 . Previously, salt-rich dust was believed to dominate the plume mass based on E5 data alone. The E17 profile shows a dominance of organic-enriched grains over the south polar terrain, a region not well constrained by E5 data. By including both E5 and E17 profiles, we find the salt-rich dust contribution to be at most 1% by mass. This revision also results from an improved understanding of grain masses of various compositional types that implies smaller sizes for salt-rich grains. Our new model can predict grain numbers and masses for future mission detectors during plume traversals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatiotemporal predictions of toxic urban plumes using deep learning

Industrial accidents, chemical spills, and structural fires can release large amounts of harmful materials that disperse into urban atmospheres and impact populated areas. Computer models are typically used to predict the transport of toxic plumes by solving fluid dynamical equations. However, these models can be computationally expensive due to the need for many grid cells to simulate turbulent flow and resolve individual buildings and streets. In emergency response situations, alternative methods are needed that can run quickly and adequately capture important spatiotemporal features. Here, we present a novel deep learning model called ST-GasNet inspired by the mathematical equations that govern the behavior of plumes as they disperse through the atmosphere. ST-GasNet learns the spatiotemporal dependencies from a limited set of temporal sequences of ground-level toxic urban plumes generated by a high-resolution large eddy simulation model. On independent sequences, ST-GasNet accurately predicts the late-time spatiotemporal evolution, given the early-time behavior as an input, even when a building splits a large plume into smaller plumes. By incorporating large-scale wind boundary condition information, ST-GasNet achieves a prediction accuracy of at least 90% on test data for the entire prediction period.

Civil and Environmental Engineering↗

Systematic uncertainties in the measurement of the neutron lifetime using the Lunar Prospector neutron spectrometer

The lifetime of free neutrons measured in the laboratory has a longstanding disparity of ≈9 s. A space-based technique has recently been proposed to independently measure the neutron lifetime using interactions between the galactic cosmic rays and a low atmosphere planetary body. This technique has not produced competitive results yet due to constraints of nonoptimized data that contain large systematic errors. We use data from the neutron spectrometer on-board NASA's Lunar Prospector, and study two large systematics in the measurement of neutron lifetime: the lunar subsurface temperature and the lunar surface composition. We use the HeCd and HeSn neutron spectrometer data when the spacecraft was in a highly elliptical orbit during the orbit insertion period. We report the neutron lifetime using four different models that each have different choices of surface temperature and composition. The 5° [Prettyman et al ., J. Geophys. Res.: Planets 111, 2005JE002656 (2006)] and 2° [Wilson et al., Phys. Rev. C 104, 045501 (2021)] rebinned maps result in 777.6±11.7 s and 739.6±10.8 s, respectively. For the 20° map (Prettyman et al., 2006), constant equatorial and a latitude-dependent temperature model result in 738.6±10.8 s and 767.3±11.2 s, respectively. Increasing the complexities of the models accounting for the systematic effects increase the measured lifetime. However, the reported measurements are not competitive with the laboratory results due to large unaccounted systematics resulting from nonoptimized measurements and modeling assumptions. This work serves as a study of systematic uncertainties for future neutron lifetime measurements using the space-based technique. We estimate the effect on the lifetime from the choice of temperature model to be to be 28.7 ±15.5 s, and choice of compositional map (for 20° and 5° maps) to be 10.3 ±12.2 s.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model – Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R dark ). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R dark to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling. In global simulations, steeper canopy gradients of R dark lead to increased understory survival and leaf biomass. Leaf area index (LAI) increased up to 77% in tropical regions compared with the default parameterization, improving alignment with remotely sensed benchmarks. Global vegetation carbon varied from 308 Pg C to 449 Pg C across the ensemble. In tropical forest simulations, steeper gradients of R dark had a large impact on successional dynamics. Results show the importance of canopy gradients in leaf traits and fluxes for determining plant carbon budgets and emergent ecosystem properties such as competitive dynamics, LAI, and vegetation carbon. The high-model sensitivity to canopy gradients in R dark highlights the need for more observations of how leaf traits and fluxes vary along light micro-environments to inform critical dynamics in LSMs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

On the Geometry of the Near-core Magnetic Field in Massive Stars

It is well-known that the cores of massive stars sustain a stellar dynamo with a complex magnetic field configuration. However, the same cannot be said for the field's strength and geometry at the convective–radiative boundary, which are crucial when performing asteroseismic inference. In this Letter, we present 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of a 7 M ⊙ mid-main-sequence star, with particular attention given to the convective–radiative boundary in the near-core region. Our simulations reveal that the toroidal magnetic field is significantly stronger than the poloidal field in this region, contrary to recent assumptions. Moreover, the rotational shear layer, also important for asteroseismic inference, is specifically confined within the extent of the Brunt–Väisälä frequency peak. These results, which are based on the inferred properties of HD 43317, have widespread implications for asteroseismic studies of rotation, mixing, and magnetism in stars. While we expect our results to be broadly applicable across stars with similar Brunt–Väisälä frequency profiles and stellar masses, we also expect the MHD parameters (e.g., Re m ) and the initial stellar rotation rate to impact the geometry of the field and differential rotation at the convective–radiative interface.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

High-speed Boulders and the Debris Field in DART Ejecta

On 2022 September 26 the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymos, in a full-scale demonstration of a kinetic impactor concept. The companion Light Italian Cubesat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube) spacecraft documented the aftermath, capturing images of the expansion and evolution of the ejecta from 29 to 243 s after the impact. We present results from our analyses of these observations, including an improved reduction of the data and new absolute calibration, an updated LICIACube trajectory, and a detailed description of the events and phenomena that were recorded throughout the flyby. One notable aspect of the ejecta was the existence of clusters of boulders, up to 3.6 m in radius, that were ejected at speeds of up to 52 m s −1 . Our analysis of the spatial distribution of 104 of these boulders suggests that they are likely the remnants of larger boulders shattered by the DART spacecraft in the first stages of the impact. The amount of momentum contained in these boulders is more than 3 times that of the DART spacecraft, and it is directed primarily to the south, almost perpendicular to the DART trajectory. Recoil of Dimorphos from the ejection of these boulders has the potential to change its orbital plane by up to a degree and to impart a non-principal-axis component to its rotation state. Damping timescales for these phenomena are such that the Hera spacecraft, arriving at the system in 2026, should be able to measure these effects.

asteroid dynamics↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Giant Undulations Driven by Pitch‐Angle Scattering of Time Domain Structures Modulated by Plasmapause Surface Wave

Abstract Plasmapause surface waves (PSWs) near the plasmapause boundary are regarded to be the magnetospheric source of ionospheric auroral giant undulations (GUs) located at the equatorward boundary of diffuse aurora. However, the observational evidence of wave‐particle interaction connecting PSWs and GUs is absent. In this letter, we demonstrate GUs are driven by pitch‐angle scattering of time domain structures modulated by the PSWs, based on the conjugated ionospheric and magnetospheric observations. Specifically, ionospheric GUs are lighted by the pitch‐angle scattering of <1 keV thermal electron and ions and energetic ions with energy up to dozens of keV near the plasmapause. Further, the total fluxes during one PSW period and energy of scattered electron and ions determine the size and luminosity of GUs. Our research provides observational evidence that PSWs cause periodic electron precipitation via modulating the time domain structures rather than the previously predicted chorus or electron cyclotron harmonic waves.

Zhou, Yi‐Jia [Weihai Institute for Interdisciplina↗

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗

User Manual for BLADE main.py

This manual provides step-by-step instructions for installing, configuring, and using BLADE, an automated framework for analyzing and classifying bolide light curves from NASA CNEOS datasets. BLADE enables efficient, reproducible analysis of atmospheric entry phenomena, supporting planetary defense and atmospheric science research through standardized signal processing and event classification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of the Distribution of the In Situ Ring Current Density Based on Magnetic Field Observations From THEMIS, MMS and Cluster

Abstract We review and extend previous work on the ring current density distribution by applying the curlometer technique to multi‐spacecraft magnetic field data on different spatial scales, directly comparing the results of three space missions: Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS), The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Cluster, that have so far accrued decades of data on a range of spatial separation scales. We suggest that the statistical results of Cluster data over two decades can illustrate well the overall form of the ring current (in the ring plane), but can underestimate the current density, while THEMIS (partially) and MMS are able to observe the detailed structure of the ring current and indeed show different behavior on some (smaller) spatial scales. These results suggest that, in addition to the local time and radial form, reported previously, the morphology of the ring current may also depend on magnetic latitude, as influenced by the tilt angle between the inner and outer magnetic fields.

Tan, X. [School of Space and Earth Sciences Beihan↗

Geophysical Observations of the 2023 September 24 OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Sample return capsules (SRCs) entering Earth's atmosphere at hypervelocity from interplanetary space are a valuable resource for studying meteor phenomena. The 2023 September 24 arrival of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer SRC provided an unprecedented chance for geophysical observations of a well-characterized source with known parameters, including timing and trajectory. A collaborative effort involving researchers from 16 institutions executed a carefully planned geophysical observational campaign at strategically chosen locations, deploying over 400 ground-based sensors encompassing infrasound, seismic, distributed acoustic sensing, and Global Positioning System technologies. Additionally, balloons equipped with infrasound sensors were launched to capture signals at higher altitudes. This campaign (the largest of its kind so far) yielded a wealth of invaluable data anticipated to fuel scientific inquiry for years to come. The success of the observational campaign is evidenced by the near-universal detection of signals across instruments, both proximal and distal. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the collective scientific effort, field deployment, and preliminary findings. The early findings have the potential to inform future space missions and terrestrial campaigns, contributing to our understanding of meteoroid interactions with planetary atmospheres. Furthermore, the data set collected during this campaign will improve entry and propagation models and augment the study of atmospheric dynamics and shock phenomena generated by meteoroids and similar sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height From ERA5 Reanalysis With MOSAiC Observations Over the Arctic Ocean

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is a crucial indicator reflecting the region of the atmosphere characterized by continuous turbulence. Here, we use radiosonde and surface meteorological observations (4–7 times per day, year-round measurements) during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition to derive the PBLH (PBLH MOSAiC ), and further evaluate the PBLH from the ERA5 reanalysis (PBLH ERA5 ). Comparisons between PBLH MOSAiC and PBLH ERA5 from different perspectives reveal that: (a) The overestimation of PBLH ERA5 when the sea ice concentration is >90% is significant with the centered root mean squared error reaching up to 201 m; (b) The difference between the two products is notably pronounced in cold seasons, while it is comparatively diminished in warm seasons; (c) In neutral boundary layers, differences in PBLH ERA5 are larger compared with stable and convective boundary layers. In addition, the analysis of error sources indicates that the bias of PBLH ERA5 is sensitive to the bias of vertical thermal structure and wind speed profiles in ERA5 data sets in all conditions. Finally, we find a Random Forest model effectively reduces the bias of PBLH ERA5 with the index of agreement reaching up to 0.71 in the test data set, while a multiple linear regression demonstrates comparable performance to the Random Forest model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗