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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prospects for Future Human Space Flight Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids

The forthcoming Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor space telescope is a foundational asset designed to complete NASA’s congressionally-mandated goal of cataloging ≥90% of NEOs ≥140 meters in size as soon as practical, and discover Earth impactors far in advance. NEO Surveyor is also critical to near-Earth asteroid (NEA) exploration because it will find suitable low-Δv NEAs for robotic and human missions, often on Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. Such NEAs have usually not been detected until imminent Earth launch opportunities because they were not observable until close to Earth. Discovering them far enough in advance to deploy missions requires a deep-space infrared survey telescope such as NEO Surveyor. In addition to posing hazards and being scientifically important, NEAs contain resources, such as water (OH), that could be utilized off-Earth. They also offer unique opportunities for the most ambitious human voyages ever undertaken. The Apollo program forever changed humanity’s perspective by showing us Earthrise from our Moon through human eyes. Crewed missions to NEAs will forever change our perspective again by showing us Earth as a distant point of light in the heavens as seen from an asteroid by astronauts. Planetary defense endeavors to understand asteroid and comet impact risks and develop mitigation capabilities. NEA exploration is synergistic in multiple ways. NEO Surveyor will discover and help characterize Earth impactors and accessible NEAs. Heavy-lift launch is highly enabling for both human NEA missions and planetary defense. Reconnaissance missions for planetary defense can also characterize NEAs prior to crewed missions. In situ resource utilization (ISRU) systems may be applicable to deflecting or destroying hazardous NEAs. NEA characterization data critically inform planetary defense efforts and indicate NEA types suitable for human exploration or ISRU. In 2010, NASA performed the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS), creating an automated online system monitoring mission accessibility of NEAs 2 . NHATS database NEAs meet criteria that require less total mission Δv and/or round-trip mission duration than the Martian surface or even Mars orbit. There are currently 4,658 NHATS NEAs, and many rival or exceed lunar orbit/surface accessibility. Thus, NHATS NEAs could be explored by humans prior to attempting a Mars mission. Human missions to NEAs would test human-rated spacecraft systems with less cost and risk than Mars missions. Thus, human missions to NEAs are compelling in their own right while also providing prudent preparation for more demanding Mars missions. Lunar missions can offer similar opportunities, but they differ from NEA missions in important ways. Lunar missions pose less demanding psychological challenges to crew and ground staff. Earth light-time delay for communications is significantly longer during NEA missions. NEA missions are available that require more propulsion system consumables than lunar missions but less than Mars missions. In this paper, we summarize NEA accessibility for human missions, discuss motivations for such missions, survey knowledge about NEAs that informs future human missions, present exemplar mission opportunities to the currently known NHATS NEAs, and describe future work towards enabling human NEA missions.

Near-Earth asteroids↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was humanity’s first attempt to move a celestial body, demonstrating the capability to perform a kinetic impact on a planetary defense–relevant sized asteroid. DART was part of the international collaboration known as the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA), involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), and scientists around the world. DART was a key step to demonstrating preparedness to respond to planetary defense scenarios, and it provides a crucial data point for likely outcomes. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than 140 m in size are of particular interest to planetary defense because they have the potential to cause significant damage if they were to impact Earth, and also because they are difficult to detect, with less than 50% of the predicted population discovered as of 2022 (National Academies Press, 2022). With an appropriately sized spacecraft and enough warning (typically many years to decades), a kinetic impact can slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a way that, over time, prevents the asteroid from colliding with Earth in the future. DART’s target was Dimorphos, the smaller (~150-m-diameter) member of the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, which is a near-Earth, potentially hazardous, and well-characterized asteroid system. By simply observing changes to the system after impact and comparing them with a pre-impact reference, it was possible to use ground-based telescopes to observe the deflection in the orbit of Dimorphos after impact. Developed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), the mission entered formulation in 2015 after multiple years of concept development. The project was administered according to NPR 7120.5, with technical oversight and funding through the Planetary Missions Program Office (PMPO) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and overall support as a directed mission from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The DART spacecraft hosted a singular payload, the Didymos Reconnaissance and Asteroid Camera for Optical navigation (DRACO), and a deployable CubeSat contributed by ASI named the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube). On 11 September 2022, DART deployed LICIACube, which subsequently followed the DART spacecraft at a safe distance and observed the immediate aftermath of the DART impact. DART was designed to autonomously detect, navigate to, and impact Dimorphos. This autonomous design was chosen to maximize the probability of impact, since commanding from the ground could result in course corrections arriving too late. On the day of impact, 26 September 2022, the spacecraft’s autonomous systems successfully detected and locked on to Dimorphos, impacting its surface within 2 m of the center of the illuminated figure (Jensenius et al., 2023). No human intervention was required for a successful impact, demonstrating that humanity possesses the technology to perform a kinetic impact. Within 2 weeks of impact, it was clear that the orbit of Dimorphos had been significantly altered. On 11 October 2022, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that the new orbital period of Dimorphos was shortened by approximately 32 ± 2 min, from 11 h and 55 min before impact to 11 h and 23 min after impact. With additional observations over the following months, the accuracy of this measurement improved to a –33.24 min ± 1.4 s orbital period change (Naidu et al., 2023; Scheirich et al., 2023), and Beta (β), the momentum transfer enhancement parameter, was reported to be 3.6 (Cheng et al., 2023). Subsequent studies examined the details of DART’s impact site, modeled the impact event, investigated the ejecta produced, and analyzed the dynamics of the Didymos system. These combined results clearly demonstrate that the project met all Level 1 mission requirements.

asteroid↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dimorphos’s Material Properties and Estimates of Crater Size from the DART Impact

On 2022 September 26, the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft intentionally collided with Dimorphos, the moon of the binary asteroid system 65803 Didymos. This collision provided the first full-scale test of a kinetic impactor for planetary defense. Images from DART’s DRACO camera revealed Dimorphos to be an oblate spheroid covered in boulders of varying sizes and shapes. Very little was known about Dimorphos prior to DART’s impact, including its shape, structure, and material properties. Approach observations and those following the DART impact have provided crucial knowledge that narrows the parameter space relevant to modeling the impact into Dimorphos. Here we present the results of a suite of hydrocode simulations of the DART impact on Dimorphos. Despite remaining uncertainties, initial models of DART’s kinetic impact provide important information about the results of DART (e.g., potential crater size and morphology, ejecta mass) and the properties of Dimorphos. Simulations here suggest that Dimorphos has near-surface strength ranging from a few Pascals to tens of kPa, which corresponds to crater sizes of ~40–60 m. Simulated crater sizes provide a crucial comparison metric for the European Space Agency Hera mission when it arrives at the Didymos system. Hera’s measurement of crater size in combination with measurement of Dimorphos’s mass will allow us to assess our simulations and provide the information needed to make the DART impact experiment both the first test of a planetary defense mitigation mission and the first full-scale planetary defense simulation validation exercise.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2017

Maturation of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project

As described at IPPW 12 [1], NASA initiated a new research activity focused on Planetary Defense (PD) on October 1, 2014. The overarching function of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is to provide capabilities to assess impact damage of any Near-Earth Object (NEO) that could inflict on the Earth. The activity includes four interrelated efforts: Initial Conditions (at the atmospheric entry interface); Entry Modeling (energy deposition in the atmosphere); Hazards (on the surface including winds, over pressures, thermal exposures, craters, tsunami and earthquakes) and Risk (physics-based). This paper outlines progress by ATAP and highlights achievements that are complimentary to activities of interest to the International Planetary Probe community. The ATAPs work is sponsored by NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), a part of the agency's Science Mission Directorate [1] Arnold, J. O., et. al., Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense, IPPW 12 Cologne Germany, June 15-19. 2015.

Entry and Breakup↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technology Gaps for Rapid Response Missions to Near-Earth Objects, Interstellar Objects, and Long-Period Comets

The last several years has seen the discovery of the first two interstellar objects, the first ever planetary defense mission, recommendation for a rapid reconnaissance planetary defense demonstration, and the continued emergence of a robust commercial small satellite industry. The present and near future also consist of emerging next-generation observatories including Vera Rubin and NEO Surveyor. These seemingly disparate events converge in the context of rapid response: a cross-cutting capability that would enable NASA and the international community to quickly discover and respond to an emerging target such as a near-Earth object (NEO), interstellar object (ISO), or long-period comet (LPC) either for rapid characterization of a potential threat, or revolutionary science that would inform early solar system formation and evolution. In late October 2022, subject matter experts gathered at the California Institute of Technology in a week-long workshop sponsored by the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) to address enabling mission concepts for rapid response and key technology gaps (final report in progress). These experts concurred that the ability to respond on the order of a few months is necessary for rapid in-situ characterization of a NEO, ISO, or LPC, and that while there are several technology gaps, this capability could be realized in the near future.

Technology gaps↗
NASA NTRS2013

Asteroid Retrieval Mission Concept - Trailblazing Our Future in Space and Helping to Protect Us from Earth Impactors

The Asteroid Retrieval Mission (ARM) is a robotic mission concept with the goal of returning a small (~7 m diameter) near-Earth asteroid (NEA), or part of a large NEA, to a safe, stable orbit in cislunar space using a 50 kW-class solar electric propulsion (SEP) robotic spacecraft (~40 kW available to the electric propulsion system) and currently available technologies. The mass of the asteroidal material returned from this mission is anticipated to be up to 1,000 metric tons, depending on the orbit of the target NEA and the thrust-to-weight and control authority of the SEP spacecraft. Even larger masses could be returned in the future as technological capability and operational experience improve. The use of high-power solar electric propulsion is the key enabling technology for this mission concept, and is beneficial or enabling for a variety of space missions and architectures where high-efficiency, low-thrust transfers are applicable. Many of the ARM operations and technologies could also be applicable to, or help inform, planetary defense efforts. These include the operational approaches and systems associated with the NEA approach, rendezvous, and station-keeping mission phases utilizing a low-thrust, high-power SEP spacecraft, along with interacting with, capturing, maneuvering, and processing the massive amounts of material associated with this mission. Additionally, the processed materials themselves (e.g., high-specific impulse chemical propellants) could potentially be used for planetary defense efforts. Finally, a ubiquitous asteroid retrieval and resource extraction infrastructure could provide the foundation of an on call planetary defense system, where a SEP fleet capable of propelling large masses could deliver payloads to deflect or disrupt a confirmed impactor in an efficient and timely manner.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Short-warning Mitigation via Intentional Robust Disruption of a Hypothetical Impact of Asteroid 2023 NT1

We investigate various short-warning mitigation scenarios via fragmentation for a hypothetical impact of asteroid 2023 NT1, a near-Earth object (NEO) that was discovered on 2023 July 15, two days after its closest approach to Earth on July 13. The asteroid passed by Earth within ∼0.25 lunar distances, with a closest approach of ∼1 × 10 5 km and a velocity of 11.27 km s −1 . Its size remains largely uncertain, with an estimated diameter range of 26–58 m and a most probable estimate of 34 m (JPL Sentry, 2023 September 15; weighted by the NEO size frequency distribution). If 2023 NT1 had collided with Earth, it could have caused significant local damage. Assuming a spherical asteroid with a diameter of 34 m, uniform density of 2.6 g cm −3 , and impact velocity of 15.59 km s −1 , a collision would have yielded an estimated impact energy of ∼1.5 Mt, approximately 3 times the energy of the Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013. We analyze the effectiveness of mitigation via intentional robust disruption for objects similar to 2023 NT1. We utilize Pulverize It (PI), a NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts study of planetary defense via fragmentation, to model potential mitigation scenarios through simulations of hypervelocity asteroid disruption and atmospheric ground effects in the case of a terminal defense mode. Simulations suggest that PI is an effective multimodal approach for planetary defense that can operate in extremely short interdiction modes, in addition to long interdiction timescales with extended warning. Our simulations support the proposition that threats like 2023 NT1 can be effectively mitigated with intercepts of 1 day (or less) prior to impact, yielding minimal to no ground damage.

Asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2015

BILLIARDS: A Demonstration Mission for Hundred-Meter Class Near Earth Asteroid Disruption

Currently, no planetary defense demonstration mission has ever been flown. While Nuclear Explosive Devices (NEDs) have significantly more energy than a kinetic impactor launched directly from Earth, they present safety and political complications, and therefore may only be used when absolutely necessary. The Baseline Instrumented Lithology Lander, Inspector, and Asteroid Redirection Demonstration System (BILLIARDS) is a demonstration mission for planetary defense, which is capable of delivering comparable energy to the lower range of NED capabilities in the form of a safer kinetic impactor. A small asteroid (<10m) is captured by a spacecraft, which greatly increases the mass available as a kinetic impactor, without the need to bring all of the mass out of Earth's gravity well. The small asteroid is then deflected onto a collision course with a larger (approx. 100m) asteroid. This collision will deflect or disrupt the larger asteroid. To reduce the cost and complexity, an asteroid pair which has a natural close approach is selected.

Planetary Defense↗
NASA NTRS2015

Analysis of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration initiated a new project focused on Planetary Defense on October 1, 2014. The new project is funded by NASAs Near Earth Object Program (Lindley Johnson, Program Executive). This presentation describes the objectives, functions and plans of four tasks encompassed in the new project and their inter-relations. Additionally, this project provides for outreach to facilitate partnerships with other organizations to help meet the objectives of the planetary defense community. The four tasks are (1) Characterization of Near Earth Asteroids, (2) Physics-Based Modeling of Meteor Entry and Breakup (3) Surface Impact Modeling and (4) Physics-Based Impact Risk Assessment.

Asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2014

Proximity Operations for the Robotic Boulder Capture Option for the Asteroid Redirect Mission

In September of 2013, the Asteroid Robotic Redirect Mission (ARRM) Option B team was formed to expand on NASA's previous work on the robotic boulder capture option. While the original Option A concept focuses on capturing an entire smaller Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) using an inflatable bag capture mechanism, this design seeks to land on a larger NEA and retrieve a boulder off of its surface. The Option B team has developed a detailed and feasible mission concept that preserves many aspects of Option A's vehicle design while employing a fundamentally different technique for returning a significant quantity of asteroidal material to the Earth-Moon system. As part of this effort, a point of departure proximity operations concept was developed complete with a detailed timeline, as well as DeltaV and propellant allocations. Special attention was paid to the development of the approach strategy, terminal descent to the surface, controlled ascent with the captured boulder, and control during the Enhanced Gravity Tractor planetary defense demonstration. The concept of retrieving a boulder from the surface of an asteroid and demonstrating the Enhanced Gravity Tractor planetary defense technique is found to be feasible and within the proposed capabilities of the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV). While this point of departure concept initially focuses on a mission to Itokawa, the proximity operations design is also shown to be extensible to wide range of asteroids.

Reeves, David M.↗