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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Wannier representation of Floquet topological states

A universal feature of topological insulators is that they cannot be adiabatically connected to an atomic limit, where individual lattice sites are completely decoupled. This property is intimately related to a topological obstruction to constructing a localized Wannier function from Bloch states of an insulator. In this work, we generalize this characterization of topological phases toward periodically driven systems. We show that nontrivial connectivity of hybrid Wannier centers in momentum space and time can characterize various types of topology in periodically driven systems, which include Floquet topological insulators, anomalous Floquet topological insulators with micromotion-induced boundary states, and gapless Floquet states realized with topological Floquet operators. In particular, nontrivial time dependence of hybrid Wannier centers indicates impossibility of continuous deformation of a driven system into an undriven insulator, and a topological Floquet operator implies an obstruction to constructing a generalized Wannier function which is localized in real and frequency spaces. Our results pave a way to a unified understanding of topological states in periodically driven systems as a topological obstruction in Floquet states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancement of double-close-binary quadruples

ABSTRACT Double-close-binary quadruples (2 + 2 systems) are hierarchical systems of four stars where two short-period binary systems move around their common centre of mass on a wider orbit. Using Gaia Early Data Release 3, we search for comoving pairs where both components are eclipsing binaries. We present eight 2 + 2 quadruple systems with inner orbital periods of <0.4 d and with outer separations of ≳1000 au. All of these systems but one are newly discovered by this work, and we catalogue their orbital information measured from their light curves. We find that the occurrence rate of 2 + 2 quadruples is 7.3 ± 2.6 times higher than what is expected from random pairings of field stars. At most a factor of ∼2 enhancement may be explained by the age and metallicity dependence of the eclipsing binary fraction in the field stellar population. The remaining factor of ∼3 represents a genuine enhancement of the production of short-period binaries in wide-separation (>103 au) pairs, suggesting a close-binary formation channel that may be enhanced by the presence of wide companions.

Fezenko, Gavin B. (ORCID:0000000217169430)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovery and characterization of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems

ABSTRACT AM CVn systems are ultra-compact, hydrogen-depleted, and helium-rich, accreting binaries with degenerate or semidegenerate donors. We report the discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems with orbital periods of 61.5, 55.5, 53.3, 37.4, and 35.4 min. These systems were discovered by searching for deep eclipses in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) light curves of white dwarfs selected using Gaia parallaxes. We obtained phase-resolved spectroscopy to confirm that all systems are AM CVn binaries, and we obtained high-speed photometry to confirm the eclipse and characterize the systems. The spectra show double-peaked H e lines but also show metals, including K and Zn, elements that have never been detected in AM CVn systems before. By modelling the high-speed photometry, we measured the mass and radius of the donor star, potentially constraining the evolutionary channel that formed these AM CVn systems. We determined that the average mass of the accreting white dwarf is ≈0.8 M⊙, and that the white dwarfs in long-period systems are hotter than predicted by recently updated theoretical models. The donors have a high entropy and are a factor of ≈2 more massive compared to zero-entropy donors at the same orbital period. The large donor radius is most consistent with H e-star progenitors, although the observed spectral features seem to contradict this. The discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems is consistent with the known observed AM CVn space density and estimated ZTF recovery efficiency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nearly Periodic Maps and Geometric Integration of Noncanonical Hamiltonian Systems

Abstract M. Kruskal showed that each continuous-time nearly periodic dynamical system admits a formal U (1)-symmetry, generated by the so-called roto-rate. When the nearly periodic system is also Hamiltonian, Noether’s theorem implies the existence of a corresponding adiabatic invariant. We develop a discrete-time analog of Kruskal’s theory. Nearly periodic maps are defined as parameter-dependent diffeomorphisms that limit to rotations along a U (1)-action. When the limiting rotation is non-resonant, these maps admit formal U (1)-symmetries to all orders in perturbation theory. For Hamiltonian nearly periodic maps on exact presymplectic manifolds, we prove that the formal U (1)-symmetry gives rise to a discrete-time adiabatic invariant using a discrete-time extension of Noether’s theorem. When the unperturbed U (1)-orbits are contractible, we also find a discrete-time adiabatic invariant for mappings that are merely presymplectic, rather than Hamiltonian. As an application of the theory, we use it to develop a novel technique for geometric integration of non-canonical Hamiltonian systems on exact symplectic manifolds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Periodic Variable Stars and Eclipsing Binary Systems with Long-term Las Cumbres Observatory Photometric Monitoring of ZTF J0139+5245

We present the results of our search for variable stars using the long-term Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO) monitoring of white dwarf ZTF J0139+5245 with the two 1.0 m telescope nodes located at McDonald Observatory using the Sinistro imaging instrument. In this search, we find 38 variable sources, of which 27 are newly discovered or newly classified (71%) based on comparisons with previously published catalogs, thereby increasing the number of detections in the field of view under consideration by a factor of ≈2.5. We find that the improved photometric precision per exposure due to longer exposure time for LCO images combined with the greater time sampling of LCO photometry enables us to increase the total number of detections in this field of view. Each LCO image covers a field of view of 26' × 26' and observes a region close to the Galactic plane (b = -9.°4) abundant in stars with an average stellar density of ≈8 arcmin{sup -2}. We perform aperture photometry and Fourier analysis on over 2000 stars across 1560 LCO images spanning 537 days to find 28 candidate BY Draconis variables, three candidate eclipsing binaries of type EA, and seven candidate eclipsing binaries of type EW. In assigning preliminary classifications to our detections, we demonstrate the applicability of the Gaia color–magnitude diagram as a powerful classification tool for variable-star studies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cascaded systems and methods for controlling energy use during a demand limiting period

A cascaded control system is configured to control power consumption of a building during a demand limiting period. The cascaded control system includes an energy use setpoint generator and a feedback controller. The energy use setpoint generator is configured to use energy pricing data and measurements of a variable condition within the building to generate an energy use setpoint during the demand limiting period. The feedback controller is configured to use a difference between the energy use setpoint and a measured energy use to generate a control signal for building equipment that operate to affect the variable condition within the building during the demand limiting period.

Wenzel, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tunable fragile topology in Floquet systems

We extend the notion of fragile topology to periodically driven systems. Here we demonstrate driving-induced fragile topology in two different models, namely, the Floquet honeycomb model and the Floquet π-flux square-lattice model. In both cases, we discover a rich phase diagram that includes Floquet fragile topological phases protected by crystalline rotation or mirror symmetries, Floquet Chern insulators, and trivial atomic phases, with distinct boundary features. Remarkably, the transitions between different phases can be feasibly achieved by simply tuning the driving amplitudes, which is a unique feature of driving-enabled topological phenomena. Moreover, corner-localized fractional charges are identified as a “smoking-gun” signal of fragile topology in our systems. Our work paves the way for studying and realizing fragile topology in Floquet systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coarse-graining Hamiltonian systems using WSINDy

Abstract Weak form equation learning and surrogate modeling has proven to be computationally efficient and robust to measurement noise in a wide range of applications including ODE, PDE, and SDE discovery, as well as in coarse-graining applications, such as homogenization and mean-field descriptions of interacting particle systems. In this work we extend this coarse-graining capability to the setting of Hamiltonian dynamics which possess approximate symmetries associated with timescale separation. A smooth $$\varepsilon$$ ε -dependent Hamiltonian vector field $$X_\varepsilon$$ X ε possesses an approximate symmetry if the limiting vector field $$X_0=\lim _{\varepsilon \rightarrow 0}X_\varepsilon$$ X 0 = lim ε → 0 X ε possesses an exact symmetry. Such approximate symmetries often lead to the existence of a Hamiltonian system of reduced dimension that may be used to efficiently capture the dynamics of the symmetry-invariant dependent variables. Deriving such reduced systems, or approximating them numerically, is an ongoing challenge. We demonstrate that WSINDy can successfully identify this reduced Hamiltonian system in the presence of large perturbations imparted in the $$\varepsilon >0$$ ε > 0 regime, while remaining robust to extrinsic noise. This is significant in part due to the nontrivial means by which such systems are derived analytically. WSINDy naturally preserves the Hamiltonian structure by restricting to a trial basis of Hamiltonian vector fields. The methodology is computationally efficient, often requiring only a single trajectory to learn the global reduced Hamiltonian, and avoiding forward solves in the learning process. In this way, we argue that weak-form equation learning is particularly well-suited for Hamiltonian coarse-graining. Using nearly-periodic Hamiltonian systems as a prototypical class of systems with approximate symmetries, we show that WSINDy robustly identifies the correct leading-order system, with dimension reduced by at least two, upon observation of the relevant degrees of freedom. While our main contribution is computational, we also provide a contribution to the literature on averaging theory by proving that first-order averaging at the level of vector fields preserves Hamiltonian structure in nearly-periodic Hamiltonian systems. This provides theoretical justification for our approach as WSINDy’s computations occur at the level of Hamiltonian vector fields. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed method using physically relevant examples, including coupled oscillator dynamics, the Hénon–Heiles system for stellar motion within a galaxy, and the dynamics of charged particles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Zero-Net-Rate Pumping Tests

Accurately estimating the distribution of aquifer properties is key to understanding contaminant movement in the subsurface. The distribution of aquifer properties is typically addressed using slug or constant-rate well tests, and the pros and cons of these tests are well known. Slug tests are appealing because they avoid removing contaminated water, but their results are affected by well skin and the small volume of displaced water limits the volume of aquifer that can be evaluated. Constant-rate well tests have the disadvantage of requiring disposal of potentially contaminated water, but they can generate properties that are more representative than slug tests, and they can be used to estimate well efficiency and storativity, which are difficult to characterize using slug tests. Periodic pumping tests are appealing because they have many of the advantages and few of the disadvantages of slug and constant-rate well tests. Periodic pumping tests involve cycling the pumping rate with a regular period and measuring the resulting response in monitoring wells. Some of these tests involve imposing a periodic rate on a constant mean rate. However, other tests involve moving water out and back into the well at rates that are balanced so the net rate after each period is zero. Some zero-net-rate (ZNR) well tests use rates that follow a sinusoidal pattern, whereas others use a square wave pattern that switches between a constant rate of pumping and a constant rate of injection to achieve a zero-net rate. ZNR well tests appear to be a useful compromise between slug and constant rate tests, but methods for conducting and analyzing the results from these tests have received limited evaluation. Periodic pumping tests are typically evaluated through recorded pressure responses to a disturbance source. Recent work has demonstrated that the strain field in the vadose zone shows a response to disturbances in the underlying aquifer. Various instrument designs are available that can record vertical and horizontal strain to very precise resolutions (10-9 ε). Measuring the strain in the vadose zone can present lower costs than measuring pressure in a monitoring well, so using strain could improve the resolution of ZNR tests, as well as make these tests potentially cheaper. A ZNR periodic pumping system was constructed and used to perform tests in the Clemson, South Carolina area. The system was designed to pump and inject with a periodic square-wave, so pumping occurs at a constant rate for half the period and is followed by injection at the same rate for half the period resulting in no net gain or loss of water from the aquifer. The system is designed to generate flow rates from 1 to 3.5 gallons per minute (gpm) with a capacity of 875-gallon per half period. Pressure and strain monitoring points are located in the vicinity of the pumping well. A series of 10 ZNR periodic pumping tests were conducted at the field site, with periods ranging from 2 to 540 minutes. Pressure data were collected and recorded in four monitoring wells in various locations around the pumping well. In addition, vertical and horizontal strain and tilt data were recorded in various locations around the pumping well. Traditional aquifer tests, including slug tests and constant-rate pumping tests were conducted at the field site to provide a baseline of aquifer parameter estimates that are compared the results of ZNR tests. Pressure data measured at monitoring wells during ZNR tests were analyzed utilizing an analytical solution (Streltsova, 1988) that assumes a confined aquifer and estimates hydraulic diffusivity and transmissivity using the time lag and amplitude of the pressure signal. The storativity can be separated out from the hydraulic diffusivity using the transmissivity estimate. The time-lag and amplitude of the pressure signals were estimated using a Fourier transform. The time-lag of the primary period of the pressure increases as a linear function of distance from the pumping well, and it increases as the square root of the period of the ZNR test over a range of periods spanning two orders of magnitudes. The first few harmonics follow similar trends, but the higher frequency harmonics diverge from this trend. Strain and tilt data from various instruments in the vadose and saturated zones are periodic during ZNR tests. The time lags of the strain components increase roughly linearly with distance from the well. Many of the time lags of the strain data from the vadose zone are similar to the time lags observed in the pressure data from a similar distance and pumping period. Theoretical experiments were performed to understand how pressure and strain responds to ZNR periodic pumping. The time-lags of the simulated pressure responses match the field data trends. The results were used to validate the Streltsova (1988) solution for periodic pumping to estimate hydraulic diffusivity. Hydraulic diffusivity was estimated to be 1.8 x 10-2 m2s-1 < Dh < 9.0 x 10-2 m2s-1 using pressure data from all the wells during ZNR tests. Transmissivity was estimated to be 0.8 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 4.3 x 10-4 m2s-1. Assuming Storativity = T/Dh gives 1.1 x 10-3 < S < 19 x10-3. Transmissivity is used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity, K, by dividing by the assumed aquifer thickness. Two constant-rate pumping tests were conducted and analyzed using two conceptual models: The Hantush (1961) solution was used to analyze data assuming confined conditions and the Neuman (1974) solution was used to analyze data assuming unconfined conditions. The Hantush (1961) solution estimated transmissivity to be 1.6 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 1.8 x 10-4 m2s-1 when using data from all the wells. Storativity was estimated to be 4.4 x 10-3 < S < 8.2 x 10-3. Assuming Dh = T/S gives 0.22 x 10-2 m2s-1 < Dh < 3.6 x 10-2 m2s-1. The Neuman (1974) solution estimated transmissivity to be 0.80 x 10-4 m2s-1 < T < 0.84 x 10-4 m2s-1. Total storativity (S + Sy) was estimated to be 22 x 10-3 < S < 110 x 10-3. Storativity excluding the Sy term was estimated to be 2.2 x 10-3 < S < 2.5 x 10-3. Assuming Dh = T/S gives 0.073 x 10-2 m2s-1 < S < 0.36 x 10-2 m2s-1. Two slug tests were performed on the pumping well, PW-2. The Bouwer and Rice (1976) solution for slug tests was used to analyze the data. This solution works for both confined and unconfined conditions, so both conceptual models were covered through the analysis. Hydraulic conductivity was estimated to be 1.95 x 10-6 ms-1 < K < 2.49 x 10-6 ms-1. Statistical comparison show generally no significant difference in the estimates of Dh, K, or S made using ZNR and conventional pumping tests.. However, the total storage estimated by the Neuman (1974) solution for unconfined settings is larger than that estimate using the Streltsove analysis applied to the ZNR tests. This is likely because the Neuman solution considers delayed yield from storage that the water table, whereas the Streltsova (1988) solution assumes confined conditions. The analysis also indicates that there is a statistically significant difference between parameters estimated with conventional slug tests and those measured with either constant-rate pumping tests or ZNR tests. Hydraulic diffusivity is estimated from the time-lag and the distance from the well. The time-lags of the strain data from the vadose zone are similar to the lags of the pressure data from a similar distance. This indicates that hydraulic diffusivities estimated from the strain data measured in the vadose zone would be similar to the estimates from the pressure data measured in the aquifer. There appear to be sign reversals in some of the strain data that were corrected to estimate the time lag. The dissolved oxygen (CO) concentration was measured during several ZNR tests to evaluate the feasibility of using the procedure to increase contaminant degradation kinetics that are related to DO. The results indicate that DO can be increased during the cycling of ZNR tests in some cases.

Smith-Jones, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Directional locking and hysteresis in stripe- and bubble-forming systems on one-dimensional periodic substrates with a rotating drive

We examine the dynamics of a two-dimensional stripe, bubble, and crystal forming system interacting with a periodic one-dimensional substrate under an applied drive that is rotated with respect to the substrate periodicity direction 𝑥. We find that the stripes remain strongly directionally locked to the 𝑥 direction for an extended range of drives before undergoing motion parallel to the drive. In some cases, the stripes break apart at the unlocking transition, but they can dynamically reform into stripes aligned perpendicular to the 𝑥 direction, producing hysteresis in the directional locking and unlocking transitions. In contrast, moving anisotropic crystal and bubble phases exhibit weaker directional locking and reduced or no hysteresis. The hysteresis occurs in regimes where the particle rearrangements occur and is most pronounced near the stripe phase. In conclusion, we also show that for varied substrate strength, substrate spacing, and particle density, a number of novel dynamical patterns can form that include a combination of stripe, bubble, and crystal morphologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond Capacity Credits: Adaptive Stress Period Planning for Evolving Power Systems

This paper combines and applies concepts from several researchers to outline an alternative framework to plan power systems for resource adequacy needs, which we call Adaptive Stress Period Planning (ASPP). It first provides background information regarding least-cost planning objectives and the challenge of balancing an increasing need for model representation with computational intensity as power systems evolve in complexity. Next, it motivates the opportunity for a new paradigm by outlining challenges of frameworks in use today that rely on aggregate capacity heuristics (i.e., capacity credits and planning reserve margins). Subsequently, it lays out main process details of ASPP, which more directly represents spatial and temporal dynamics of power systems in a capacity expansion model with a process to adaptively select risk periods. The paper concludes with a summary of the approach, its benefits, and opportunities for future work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Systems and methods for periodic nodal surface based reactors, distributors, contactors and heat exchangers

The present disclosure relates to a transport mechanism apparatus for transporting at least one of a gas or a fluid. The transport mechanism may have an inlet, an outlet and an engineered cellular structure forming a periodic nodal surface, which may include a triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) structure. The structure is formed in a layer-by-layer three dimensional (3D) printing operation to include cells propagating in three dimensions, where the cells include non-intersecting, continuously curving wall portions having openings, and where the opening in the cells form a plurality of flow paths throughout the transport mechanism from the inlet to the outlet, and where portions of the cells form the inlet and the outlet.

Iyer, Jaisree Kannan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using hydrogen and ammonia for renewable energy storage: A geographically comprehensive techno-economic study

Hydrogen and, more recently, ammonia have received worldwide attention as energy storage media. In this work we investigate the economics of using each of these chemicals as well as the two in combination for islanded renewable energy supply systems in 15 American cities representing different climate regions throughout the country. We use an optimal combined capacity planning and scheduling model which minimizes the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) by determining optimal unit selection and size along with unit commitments, production rates, and storage inventories for each period of system operation. These periods are aggregated from full year hourly resolution data via a consecutive temporal clustering algorithm. Ammonia is generally more economical than hydrogen as a single method of energy storage. Additionally, systems which use both hydrogen and ammonia outperform those which use only one storage option and have LCOE between $\$ 0.17$/kWh and $\$ 0.28$/kWh, including full investment in renewable generation infrastructure.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical assessment of triply periodic minimal surfaces for direct air capture of carbon dioxide

Direct air capture (DAC) systems often consist of packing material wetted by a capture fluid that reacts with CO 2 in the airstream. The efficiency of the contactor is determined by a complex relationship of fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, contactor geometry, and chemical properties. The efficiency of the contactor must be balanced with other factors, primarily pressure drop through the system. Triply periodic minimal surfaces (TPMS) are a class of differential surfaces that have been explored in multiple engineering applications and have been shown to exhibit excellent performance when used in heat exchangers. Their tortuous path provides a high surface-to-volume ratio and favorable trade-off between contact area and pressure drop. In this work, a gyroid-type TPMS contactor was evaluated using computational fluid dynamics for a variety of geometric parameters to explore the potential benefit of TPMS shapes for DAC applications. A thin-film model was employed to model the flow and distribution of the capture solvent, allowing efficient simulations of TPMS structures at scale by eliminating the need for a computationally intensive interface capturing method. A liquid-gas mass transfer model was implemented in the commercial software STAR-CCM+ and used to predict the CO 2 capture efficiency and study the trade-off between capture performance and pressure drop through analysis of capture rates, mass transfer coefficients, and other relevant variables. TPMS contactors with a variety of geometric parameters and two capture solvent options were investigated to determine the effect of design choices on the operational performance of DAC systems. In conclusion, results showed that while contactor geometry is the dominant factor in efficiency and pressure drop, the physiochemical properties of the solvent are an important secondary influence on the contactor performance.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical Instabilities in Systems of Multiple Short-period Planets Are Likely Driven by Secular Chaos: A Case Study of Kepler-102

We investigated the dynamical stability of high-multiplicity Kepler and K2 planetary systems. Our numerical simulations find instabilities in ∼20% of the cases on a wide range of timescales (up to 5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and over an unexpectedly wide range of initial dynamical spacings. To identify the triggers of long-term instability in multiplanet systems, we investigated in detail the five-planet Kepler-102 system. Despite having several near-resonant period ratios, we find that mean-motion resonances are unlikely to directly cause instability for plausible planet masses in this system. Instead, we find strong evidence that slow inward transfer of angular momentum deficit (AMD) via secular chaos excites the eccentricity of the innermost planet, Kepler-102 b, eventually leading to planet–planet collisions in ∼80% of Kepler-102 simulations. Kepler-102 b likely needs a mass ≳0.1 M {sub ⊕}, hence a bulk density exceeding about half Earth’s, in order to avoid dynamical instability. To investigate the role of secular chaos in our wider set of simulations, we characterize each planetary system’s AMD evolution with a “spectral fraction” calculated from the power spectrum of short integrations (∼5 × 10{sup 6} orbits). We find that small spectral fractions (≲0.01) are strongly associated with dynamical stability on long timescales (5 × 10{sup 9} orbits) and that the median time to instability decreases with increasing spectral fraction. Our results support the hypothesis that secular chaos is the driver of instabilities in many nonresonant multiplanet systems and also demonstrate that the spectral analysis method is an efficient numerical tool to diagnose long-term (in)stability of multiplanet systems from short simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗