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At least 73 records · Page 4

Contrasting Recent and Future ITCZ Changes from Distinct Tropical Warming Patterns

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a salient feature of the Earth’s deep-tropical circulation. Here we report and explain the contrasting changes in seasonal ITCZs over recent decades and under future warming. We show that seasonal ITCZs have shifted poleward and narrowed over recent decades but are projected to shift equatorward and widen under future warming. Such contrasting changes are induced by distinct surface warming patterns. Specifically, the equatorial Pacific has cooled over recent decades with phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but in the future it will experience stronger anthropogenic warming than the tropical mean. The effect of surface warming pattern on ITCZ is consistently explained by thermodynamic and energetic theories and is demonstrated through atmosphere-only simulations forced with prescribed SST. In the coming decades, PDO may change into a positive phase. This will enhance the equatorial warming and lead to amplified ITCZ changes that are distinct from recent trends.

Zhou, Wenyu↗

Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981–2010) compared to earlier (1951–1980). Here, we show this decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and increased vertical wind shear. In the presence of low-latitude basin-wide warming and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones are expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Redox dynamics and surface structures of an active palladium catalyst during methane oxidation

Catalysts based on palladium are among the most effective in the complete oxidation of methane. Despite extensive studies and notable advances, the nature of their catalytically active species and conceivable structural dynamics remains only partially understood. Here, we combine operando transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with near-ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (NAP-XPS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations to investigate the active state and catalytic function of Pd nanoparticles (NPs) under methane oxidation conditions. We show that the particle size, phase composition and dynamics respond appreciably to changes in the gas-phase chemical potential. In combination with mass spectrometry (MS) conducted simultaneously with in situ observations, we uncover that the catalytically active state exhibits phase coexistence and oscillatory phase transitions between Pd and PdO. Aided by DFT calculations, we provide a rationale for the observed redox dynamics and demonstrate that the emergence of catalytic activity is related to the dynamic interplay between coexisting phases, with the resulting strained PdO having more favorable energetics for methane oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices

The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefficients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The influence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic and reversible transformations of subnanometre-sized palladium on ceria for efficient methane removal

Reversibly adjusting the active structures of supported metal catalysts in response to dynamic working conditions has long been pursued. Here we report the reaction-environment-modulated transformations of subnanometre-sized Pd on CeO 2 for efficient methane removal, leveraging the reaction environments at different stages of automotive exhaust aftertreatment. During the cold start of vehicles, inactive Pd 1 single atoms are readily transformed into PdO $x$ subnanometre clusters by CO even at room temperature with excess O 2 , resulting in boosted low-temperature CH 4 oxidation. At elevated temperatures, dispersion of PdO $x$ cluster into Pd 1 against metal sintering renders outstanding hydrothermal stability to the catalyst, to be activated during the next vehicle start. Combined experimental and computational studies elucidate the dynamically evolved Pd speciation on CeO 2 at an atomic level. In conclusion, modulating the reversible nature of supported metals helps overcome the long-existing trade-off between low-temperature activity and high-temperature stability, also providing a new paradigm for designing intelligent catalysts that brings single-atom/cluster catalysts closer to real applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ligand-coordinated Ir single-atom catalysts stabilized on oxide supports for ethylene hydrogenation and their evolution under a reductive atmosphere

In this work, we present a novel series of oxide-supported Ir-ligand single-atom catalysts (SACs) for ethylene hydrogenation. The SACs were created by a metal–ligand self-assembly strategy developed by our group, using one of two ligands, either 1,10-phenanthroline-5,6-dione (PDO) or 3,6-Di-2-pyridyl-1,2,4,5-tetrazine (DPTZ), on powder supports of either CeO 2 or MgO. Characterization by XAS, XPS, and CO adsorption proved that Ir exist principally as highly uniform, cationic single-atoms. Ir SACs show significantly higher durability and metal utilization efficiency than Ir nanoparticle (NP) catalysts during ethylene hydrogenation at 100 °C, as well as excellent stability, as no Ir aggregates were detected after >10 h reaction. The activity can be tuned by ligand and support effects: PDO and CeO 2 are superior to DPTZ and MgO, respectively. This tunability is attributed to differences in H 2 activation capability, which results from differences in support reducibility, electron density on Ir, and, potentially, the local coordination environment of Ir. The Ir SACs lose H 2 activation activity either under inert gas or under H 2 . Through XPS and in situ XAS studies, we attributed the former to the reversible loss of Ir hydride, which is the active species for H 2 activation, and the latter to irreversible over-hydrogenation and loss of Ir–O/N coordination. This work presents a new type of Ir hydrogenation SACs that are more durable, efficient, and tunable than supported Ir NPs, while more stable than homogeneous Ir complexes. It also offers fundamental understanding regarding ligand and support effects, as well as the evolution of Ir single-atoms under H 2 , instructing future design of stable, effective hydrogenation SACs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Electrochemical production of H 2 O 2 on palladium-based clusters driven by metal–support interaction

Utilizing palladium (Pd) clusters as active sites offers a promising route to minimize noble metal consumption in electrochemical hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) production. In this work, we present a synthesis approach for anchoring Pd-based clusters onto carbon-supported CeO 2 nanosubstrates to enable efficient H 2 O 2 generation via the two-electron oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) pathway. By systematically adjusting Pd loading, we evaluated its impact on H 2 O 2 yield and production rate. The catalyst with the lowest Pd content (0.027 wt%) exhibited outstanding performance, achieving 97% H 2 O 2 selectivity, 94.2 faradaic efficiency at 0.7 V vs. RHE, and a peak production rate of 195.8 mol g Pd −1 h −1 . A formulation containing 0.35 wt% Pd delivered a peak ORR mass activity nearly three times as high as that of commercial 10 wt% Pd/C, while retaining comparable electrochemical stability. These enhancements are attributed to synergistic effects among isolated PdO clusters, CeO 2 nanocrystals, and the conductive carbon support, which together facilitate oxygen adsorption and promote the two-electron ORR pathway. Analysis after accelerated durability testing further revealed a tendency toward cluster agglomeration and mass transfer from smaller to larger nanocrystals, indicative of a coarsening mechanism. Overall, this study underscores the promise of low-Pd PdO–CeO 2 –carbon hybrid catalysts for scalable and efficient H 2 O 2 electrosynthesis, while highlighting stability as a critical area for future improvement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Representation of Modes of Variability in Six U.S. Climate Models

We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six U.S. climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models [including those participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)] compared to previous versions. In particular, we examine the representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere, and the dominant modes of extratropical variability, including the southern annular mode (SAM), the northern annular mode (NAM) [and the closely related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)], and the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA). Where feasible, we explore the processes driving these improvements through the use of “intermediary” experiments that utilize model versions between CMIP3/5 and CMIP6 as well as targeted sensitivity experiments in which individual modeling parameters are altered. We find clear and systematic improvements in the MJO and QBO and in the teleconnection patterns associated with the PDO and ENSO. Some gains arise from better process representation, while others (e.g., the QBO) from higher resolution that allows for a greater range of interactions. Our results demonstrate that the incremental development processes in multiple climate model groups lead to more realistic simulations over time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Removing the Effects of Tropical Dynamics from North Pacific Climate Variability

Teleconnections from the Tropics energize variations of the North Pacific climate, but detailed diagnosis of this relationship has proven difficult. Simple univariate methods, such as regression on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, may be inadequate since the key dynamical processes involved -- including ENSO diversity in the Tropics, re-emergence of mixed layer thermal anomalies, and oceanic Rossby wave propagation in the North Pacific -- have a variety of overlapping spatial and temporal scales. Here we use a multivariate Linear Inverse Model to quantify tropical and extra-tropical multi-scale dynamical contributions to North Pacific variability, in both observations and CMIP6 models. In observations, we find that the Tropics are responsible for almost half of the seasonal variance, and almost three quarters of the decadal variance, along the North American coast and within the subtropical front region northwest of Hawaii. SST anomalies that are generated by local dynamics within the Northeast Pacific have much shorter time scales, consistent with transient weather forcing by Aleutian low anomalies. Variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is considerably less impacted by the Tropics, on all time scales. Consequently, without tropical forcing the dominant pattern of North Pacific variability would be a KOE pattern, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast to observations, most CMIP6 historical simulations produce North Pacific variability that maximizes in the KOE region, with amplitude significantly higher than observed. Correspondingly, the simulated North Pacific in all CMIP6 models is shown to be relatively insensitive to the Tropics, with a dominant spatial pattern generally resembling the KOE pattern, not the PDO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

X-Ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy Study of the Heating Effects on Pd/6H-SiC Schottky Structure

X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy is used to study the effects of heat treatment on the Pd/6H-SiC Schottky diode structure. After heating the structure at 425 C for 140 h, a very thin surface layer of PdO mixed with SiO(x) formed on the palladium surface of the Schottky structure. Heat treatment promoted interfacial diffusion and reaction which significantly broadened the interfacial region. In the interfacial region, the palladium concentration decreases with depth, and the interfacial products are Pd(x)Si (x = 1,2,3,4). In the high Pd concentration regions, Pd4Si is the major silicide component while gr and Pd2Si are major components in the low Pd concentration region. At the center of the interface, where the total palladium concentration equals that of silicon, the concentrations of palladium associated with various palladium silicides (Pd(x)Si, x= 1,2,3,4) are approximately equal. The surface passivation layer composed of PdO and SiO, may significantly affect the electronic and catalytic properties of the surface of the Schottky diode which plays a major role in gas detection. The electronic properties of the Schottky structure may be dominated by a (Pd+Pd(x)Si)/SiC interface. In order to stabilize the properties of the Schottky structure the surface and interface diffusion and reactions must be controlled.

Chen, Liang-Yu↗

Time-Variable Gravity Signal Due to Extratropic Pacific Water Mass Redistribution

Cox and Chao [2002] reported the detection of a large anomaly in the form of a positive "jump" in the time series of Earth's lowest-degree gravity harmonic J2, or the dynamic oblateness, during 1998. This prompted us to examine the mass redistribution in the global oceans. We report here a seesaw of the sea-surface height (SSH) in the extratropic north + south Pacific basins -- the leading (nonseasonal) EOF/PC mode in SSH derived from the 10-year TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data in the extratropic Pacific region. The mode underwent a step-like jump with time evolution that match remarkably well with the observed J2 anomaly. However, the magnitude is several times too small to explain the observed J2, even if assuming the SSH jump was all mass-induced (as opposed to any steric effect which causes no time-variable gravity signal). If one accepts the notion that this extratropic Pacific seesaw is part of the geophysical process that produced the observed 1998 J2 anomaly, then this finding suggests strong geophysical connection of the interannual-to-decadal variation of J2 with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as the time series of the above EOF/PC mode is actually a formally defined PDO Index series.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Time-Variable Gravity Signal due to Extratropic Pacific Water Mass Redistribution

Using the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) data, Cox and Chao [2002] reported the detection of a large post-1998 anomaly (in the form of a positive jump) in the time series of Earth s lowest-degree gravity harmonic 52, or the dynamic oblateness. Among several groups now examining the mass redistribution in the global geophysical fluids in search of the cause(s), we report here a temporally coinciding anomalies found in the extratropic north + south Pacific basins. Clearly seen in the leading EOFPC mode for extratropic Pacific, these anomalies occurred in sea-surface height, sea-surface temperature, and temperature- and salinity-depth profiles. We based our analysis on two different data sources: TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry, and the ECCO ocean general circulation model output assimilating T/P data. The magnitude of these changes, when converted to equivalent J2 change, appears to be a few times too small to explain the observed J2 directly. These findings, and the fact that the anomalies occurred following the strong 1997-98 El Nino, suggest strong geophysical connection of the interannual-to-decadal variation of 52 with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the ultimate global-change processes that cause PDO. More work is underway, and additional independent data sources are examined, paying close attention to the fact that the J2 anomaly has been reversing back to normal since 2001. These include: (1) cryospheric contributions (melting of glaciers and ice sheets); (2) land hydrological contributions; (3) polar sea influences ( e g , via deep flow); (4) fluid flow in Earth's core; (5) time-variable gravity signals from SLR in higher harmonic degree/order, including J3,J4, (2,1), and (2,2) coefficients, considering their lower signal-to-noise ratios; (6) Earth rotation data in terms of length-of-day and polar motion.

Chao, B. F.↗

Representation of Modes of Variability in 6 U.S. Climate Models

We compare the performance of several modes of variability across six US climate modeling groups, with a focus on identifying robust improvements in recent models (including those participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6) compared to previous versions. In particular, we examine the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the El Ni˜no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the tropical stratosphere and the dominant modes of extra-tropical variability, including the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) (and the closely related North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)), and the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA). Where feasible, we explore the processes driving these improvements through the use of “intermediary” experiments that utilize model versions between CMIP3/5 and CMIP6 as well as targeted sensitivity experiments in which individual modeling parameters are altered. We find clear and systematic improvements in the MJO and QBO and in the teleconnection patterns associated with the PDO and ENSO. Some gains arise from better process representation, while others (e.g. the QBO) from higher resolution that allows for a greater range of interactions. Our results demonstrate that the incremental development processes in multiple climate model groups lead to more realistic simulations over time.

Modes of variability↗

Climate models project increasing precipitation in the US Southwest in 2024–2100

We analyzed the measured precipitation in the southwestern US and found that, from 1900 to 2024, precipitation decreased at an average rate of − 1.2 cm per year per 100 years. The most significant precipitation decreases occurred in the three-month period from February to April. At the same time, precipitation during the southwestern monsoon season (July, August, and September) remained relatively stable. The ensemble mean of all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models, along with the regression model incorporating anthropogenic aerosol (AER) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as predictors, projects precipitation to increase from 2024 to 2100. This projected precipitation increase relies on the anticipated decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, which is associated with the transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable and nuclear energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An investigation of the physical and chemical changes of Pd nanoparticles on carbon supports in response to the release of hydrogen from aqueous formate solutions

Palladium nanoparticles on carbon supports (Pd/C) are effective for catalyzing hydrogen release from aqueous formate solutions but typically suffer from a gradual decrease of activity. This study finds two primary factors influencing activity: (i) the number of available surface Pd sites, and (ii) metal-support interactions which depend on the nature of the C support. We propose that the Pd/C catalyst is structure insensitive and undergoes Ostwald ripening to yield an active ‘conditioned’ catalyst with dispersion plateauing between ca. 15–20 %. Contrary to earlier studies, in-situ XANES experiments show that PdO is not an active catalyst for formate dehydrogenation. Calcination of Pd/C before dehydrogenation increases the catalytic activity which suggests a beneficial, albeit temporary, modification of the metal support interaction. N-containing supports minimize nanoparticle growth and also increase activity through a metal-support interaction. In conclusion, these findings advance our understanding of catalyst evolution and stability in formate dehydrogenation systems.

Formate dehydrogenation↗

Ligand-coordination effects on the selective hydrogenation of acetylene in single-site Pd-ligand supported catalysts

The selective hydrogenation of acetylene to ethylene is a critical step in the synthesis of polyethylenes. Achieving high conversion to ethylene without over-hydrogenation to ethane is a challenge that requires control of the transition metal site, which we achieve through a ligand-coordinated supported catalyst (LCSC) strategy. Using Pd catalysts coordinated to 1,10-phenanthroline-5,6-dione (PDO) ligands on CeO2 supports, we have discovered that the reaction selectivity depends strongly on the ligand:metal ratio with higher selectivity when more ligand is present in the catalyst. Catalyst structure was examined by extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and CO adsorption, which indicate single-atom character of the Pd. The ligand:metal ratio is determined by Xray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements and correlated with hydrogenation reactions under steady-state flow conditions to examine trends in hydrogenation activity and selectivity. Those trends can be better understood by density functional theory calculations that indicate hydrogen binding on the ligand to guide reaction selectivity toward the desired ethylene hydrogenation product. Here these results demonstrate the importance of considering the dynamic character of LCSCs and inform the design of future single-site heterogeneous catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adapting an Electron Microscopy Microheater for Correlated and Time-Resolved Ambient Pressure X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy

Environmental transmission electron microscopy (ETEM) can follow structural and chemical changes in nanomaterials under reaction conditions, including at temperatures up to 1300 °C and pressures up to ~20 mbar. However, ETEM studies are limited to localized areas of a sample and can benefit from correlative studies of a similar sample on larger length scales. Here, in this work, we describe the customization of a commercial microheater holder used in ETEM to anode-based ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (APXPS), where chemical and electronic structure information is averaged over several hundred square micrometers. To benchmark heating capabilities in the APXPS instrument, core level binding energies were followed during surface chemical reactions of a Pd film, including CO adsorption–desorption, Pd oxidation, and PdO reduction. The fast heating feature of the microheaters advanced XPS experimental capabilities, including the collection of subsecond time-resolved spectra of the Pd 3d 5/2 peak during the reduction of an oxidized Pd film. The potential to use these heaters in a closed gas cell was also demonstrated by oxidizing Pd in a partial pressure of air locally dosed to the sample surface. General tips and considerations for the application of commercial ETEM heaters to any XPS system with a focused X-ray beam are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗