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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Guidelines and considerations for designing field experiments simulating precipitation extremes in forest ecosystems

1. Precipitation regimes are changing in response to climate change, yet understanding of how forest ecosystems respond to extreme droughts and pluvials remains incomplete. As future precipitation extremes will likely fall outside the range of historical variability, precipitation manipulation experiments (PMEs) are critical to advancing knowledge about potential ecosystem responses. However, few PMEs have been conducted in forests compared to short-statured ecosystems, and forest PMEs have unique design requirements and constraints. Moreover, past forest PMEs have lacked coordination, limiting cross-site comparisons. Here, we review and synthesize approaches, challenges, and opportunities for conducting PMEs in forests, with the goal of guiding design decisions, while maximizing the potential for coordination. 2. We reviewed 63 forest PMEs at 70 sites world-wide. Workshops, meetings, and communications with experimentalists were used to generate and build consensus around approaches for addressing the key challenges and enhancing coordination. 3. Past forest PMEs employed a variety of study designs related to treatment level, replication, plot and infrastructure characteristics, and measurement approaches.Important considerations for establishing new forest PMEs include: selecting appropriate treatment levels to reach ecological thresholds; balancing cost, logistical complexity, and effectiveness in infrastructure design; and preventing unintended water subsidies. Response variables in forest PMEs were organized into three broad tiers reflecting increasing complexity and resource intensiveness, with the first tier representing a recommended core set of common measurements. 4. Differences in site conditions combined with unique research questions of experimentalists necessitate careful adaptation of guidelines for forest PMEs to balance local objectives with coordination among experiments. We advocate adoption of a common framework for coordinating forest PME design to enhance cross-site comparability and advance fundamental knowledge about the response and sensitivity of diverse forest ecosystems to precipitation extremes.

Climate Extremes, drought, ecological thresholds, ↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Aerosol-induced changes in the vertical structure of precipitation: a perspective of TRMM precipitation radar

Our knowledge is still poor regarding the response of the precipitation vertical structure to aerosols, partly due to the ignorance of precipitation occurring at different spatial scales. A total of 6 years of collocated ground-based PM 10 and satellite-based (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM) radar data, along with ERA-Interim reanalysis, are used in this study to investigate the aerosol effects on three localized rain regimes (shallow, stratiform, and convective rain) over the Pearl River Delta region of China. A subjective analysis method is proposed to discriminate between the localized and synoptic-scale precipitations based on weather composite charts where daily averaged wind field at 850 hPa is overlaid with the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In general, average rain rate tends to be greater under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. But such potential aerosol effects are regime dependent: as the atmosphere becomes slightly polluted (PM 10 ≤38 µg m -3 ), the top 1 % radar reflectivity (Z) for all regimes initially increases, followed by continued increases and weak decreases for convective and stratiform/shallow rain regimes, respectively. As the atmosphere becomes much more polluted, such regime dependences of aerosol effects are more significant. From a perspective of the vertical Z structure, comparisons between polluted conditions (days with the highest third of PM 10 concentration) and clean conditions (days with the lowest third of PM 10 concentration) show that the convective rain regime exhibits a deeper and stronger Z pattern, whereas a much shallower and weaker Z pattern is observed for stratiform and shallow precipitation regimes. In particular, the top height of the 30 dBZ rain echo increases by ~29 % (~1.27 km) for the convective regime, but decreases by ~10.8 % (~0.47 km) for the stratiform regime. However, no noticeable changes are observed for the shallow precipitation regime. Impacts of meteorological factors are further studied on both rain top height (RTH) and the center of gravity of Z, including vertical velocity, vertical wind shear, convection available potential energy, and vertically integrated moisture flux divergence (MFD). The possible invigoration effect on convective precipitation seems dependent on wind shear, in good agreement with previous findings. Overall, the observed dependence of the precipitation vertical structure on ground-based PM 10 supports the notion of aerosol invigoration or suppression effect on cold or warm rain and adds new insights into the nature of the complex interactions between aerosol and various localized precipitation regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2015

Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. Lastly, by examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Role of Troposphere-Convection-Land Coupling in the Southwestern Amazon Precipitation Bias of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)

The Amazon forest plays an important role in the tropical circulation and global water and biogeochemical cycles. However, the common Amazon precipitation biases in global climate models undermine our ability to understand future changes in the Amazon and their global consequences. The Community Earth System Model exhibits a persistent wet season dry bias over the southwestern Amazon. The bias is also characterized by inaccurate diurnal timing and intensity of rainfall events. Analysis of a diverse set of simulations suggests that the bias originates from local processes. A known land model bias in the partitioning of surface energy fluxes is found not to contribute significantly to the rainfall bias. Key model processes are identified to be the low-level divergent circulation controlling horizontal moisture flow and the sensitivity of the modeled deep convection to the lower tropospheric moisture. The lower tropospheric moisture divergence dictates the spatiotemporal distributions of convective precipitation through parameterized entrainment mixing, which generally improves the rainfall diurnal cycle. However, it also limits convective precipitation over the areas with frequent and large-scale divergence in the lower troposphere. The southwestern Amazon is such an area, particularly in the late afternoon, although uncertainty exists in the low-level flow in the simulation and reanalyses. One way to sustain rainfall in the presence of low-level divergence is a convective trigger based on both the moisture and temperature changes by large-scale processes, which is shown to help in reducing the dry bias.

Sakaguchi, Koichi↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding ice cloud-precipitation properties of three modes of mesoscale convective systems during PECAN

This study analyzes the precipitation and ice cloud microphysical features of three common modes of linear mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) campaign. Three cases, one for each linear MCS archetype (trailing stratiform (TS), leading stratiform (LS), and parallel stratiform (PS) precipitation), are selected. We focus primarily on analyzing ice cloud microphysical properties and precipitation rates over the classified convective core (CC) and stratiform rain (SR) regions, as well as the two stratiform regions that developed behind (SR1) and ahead (SR2) of the convective line relative to the storm motion. In the three selected cases, the ice water path (IWP) and precipitation rate (PR) have strong correlations in the CC, but not in the SR. In terms of the temporal evolution of the mean IWPs and PRs, both CC and SR IWPs, as well as CC PRs, reach peaks quickly, but take a longer time to dissipate than the increase period. For all three cases, both SR1 and SR2 IWPs are 20-70% of their corresponding CC values in both the LS and PS cases, and up to 95% for the TS case, while all of their PRs are only 7-25% of their CC values. These values suggest that the SR PRs may not only depend on IWPs, but also that the microphysical properties of ice particles such as habit and size distribution may play an important role. Utilizing cloud resolving simulations of these systems may provide better understanding of the physical meanings behind the results in the future.

Cui, Wenjun↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of soluble oligomeric aluminum on precipitation in the Al-KOH-H2O system

The role of oligomeric aluminate (Al(OH)4-) species in the precipitation of aluminum phases such as gibbsite (a-Al(OH)3) from aqueous hydroxide solutions remains unclear and difficult to probe directly, despite its importance to developing accurate predictions of Al solubility in highly alkaline systems. Precipitation in this system entails a transition from predominantly tetrahedrally coordinated Al species in solution to octahedrally coordinated Al in gibbsite. Here we report a quantitative study of dissolved Al in the Al-KOH-H2O system using a combination of molecular spectroscopies. We established a relationship between changes in 27Al NMR chemical shifts and the relative intensity of Raman vibrational bands, indicative of variations in the ensemble speciation of Al in solution, and the formation of unique contact ion pair interactions with the aluminate dimer, Al2O(OH)62 . A strong correlation between the extent of Al oligomerization and the amount of solvated Al was demonstrated by systematically varying the KOH:Al molar ratio. The concentration of dissolved oligomeric Al in solution also directly impacted the particle size and morphology of gibbsite; high concentrations of dimeric Al2O(OH)62-, yielded smaller and more numerous anhedral to subhedral gibbsite particles, while low concentrations yielded fewer and larger euhedral gibbsite platelets. The collective observations suggest a key role of the Al2O(OH)62- dimer in promoting gibbsite precipitation from solution, where the potassium ion-paired dimer possibly catalyzes a more rapid transformation of Al coordination from tetrahedral in solution to octahedral in gibbsite.

Dembowski, Mateusz↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Deep Eutectic Solvent Precipitation Synthesis of Metastable Zn 4 V 2 O 9

A precipitation method involving a deep eutectic solvent (DES)–a mixture of hydrogen bond donor and acceptor–is used to synthesize a ternary metal oxide. Without toxic reagents, precipitates consisting of Zn 3 (OH) 2 V 2 O 7 ·nH 2 O and Zn 5 (OH) 6 (CO 3 ) 2 are obtained by simply introducing deionized H 2 O to the DES solution containing dissolved ZnO and V 2 O 5 . Manipulation of the synthetic conditions demonstrates high tunability in the size/morphology of the two-dimensional nanosheets precipitated during the dynamic equilibrium process. According to differential scanning calorimetry and high-temperature powder X-ray diffraction, Zn 3 V 2 O 8 and ZnO obtained by the annealing of the precipitate are intermediates in the reaction pathway toward metastable Zn 4 V 2 O 9 . Intimate mixing of the metal precursors achieved by the precipitation method allows access to the metastable zinc-rich vanadate with unusually rapid heat treatment. Furthermore, the UV–vis and surface photovoltage spectra reveal the presence of sub-band gap states, stemming from the reduced vanadium (V 4+ ) center. Photoelectrochemical measurements confirm weak photoanodic currents for water and methanol oxidation. For the first time, this work shows the synthesis of a metastable oxide with the DES-precipitation route and provides insight into the structure–property relationship of the zinc-rich vanadate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Contributions of extreme and non-extreme precipitation to California precipitation seasonality changes under warming

Changes in seasonality of extreme precipitation have important implications for flood and fire hazards and water resources. Here we explore the contributions of extreme and non-extreme precipitation in the sharpened wet season in California under warming and the underlying mechanisms. Modeling evidence shows that increased extreme precipitation due to enhanced extreme intensity and more extreme days dominates the wetter winter, while decreased non-extreme precipitation due to fewer wet days induces the dryer spring and fall. Moisture budget analysis indicates that increased moisture dominates the extreme precipitation increase in winter, while weakened circulation offsets the moisture increase, resulting in no changes in spring and fall. The sharpened seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation via both dynamic and thermodynamic effects is consistent with the seasonality changes in atmospheric river days and is mainly attributed to the seasonality changes in the number of extreme days rather than the intensity during extreme days.

Dong, Lu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Wind Shear and Aerosol Conditions on the Organization of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

Here this study examines how wind shear affects precipitating marine stratocumulus clouds under different cloud droplet number concentrations (N d ). We performed a series of large eddy simulations (LES) of nocturnal marine stratocumulus clouds using Cloud Model 1 (CM1). The simulations show that N d is the dominant factor for cloud cellular organization in this cloud regime rather than wind shear. Low N d characterizes the open cellular structure with a high in-cloud liquid water path (LWP). When wind shear is increased, the cloud fraction tends to decrease along with LWP, suggesting the cloud top region is significantly influenced by the entrainment and mixing of dry air from the free troposphere. We also examine cold pools in open and closed cellular clouds. Open-cell clouds produce larger and deeper cold pools compared to closed-cell clouds. Interestingly, cold pools can exist without surface precipitation and are produced by evaporation of light precipitation (drizzle) below the cloud base with weak downdrafts. The evaporation of raindrops and drizzle play an important role in initiating new convection, particularly where colliding outflows occur downstream of the cloud. This secondary convection contributes to the development and maintenance of the cloud cellular organization and formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The ratio of mesoscale convective system precipitation to total precipitation increases in future climate change scenarios

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a substantial source of precipitation in the eastern U.S. and may be sensitive to regional climatic change. We use a suite of convection-permitting climate simulations to examine possible changes in MCS precipitation. Specifically, annual and regional totals of MCS and non-MCS precipitation generated during a retrospective simulation are compared to end-of-21st-century simulations based on intermediate and extreme climate change scenarios. Both scenarios produce more MCS precipitation and less non-MCS precipitation, thus significantly increasing the proportion of precipitation associated with MCSs across the U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗