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At least 73 records · Page 4

How to select combination operators for fuzzy expert systems using CRI

A method to select combination operators for fuzzy expert systems using the Compositional Rule of Inference (CRI) is proposed. First, fuzzy inference processes based on CRI are classified into three categories in terms of their inference results: the Expansion Type Inference, the Reduction Type Inference, and Other Type Inferences. Further, implication operators under Sup-T composition are classified as the Expansion Type Operator, the Reduction Type Operator, and the Other Type Operators. Finally, the combination of rules or their consequences is investigated for inference processes based on CRI.

Turksen, I. B.↗

Cleanroom software development

The 'cleanroom' software development process is a technical and organizational approach to developing software with certifiable reliability. Key ideas behind the process are well structured software specifications, randomized testing methods and the introduction of statistical controls; but the main point is to deny entry for defects during the development of software. This latter point suggests the use of the term 'cleanroom' in analogy to the defect prevention controls used in the manufacturing of high technology hardware. In the 'cleanroom', the entire software development process is embedded within a formal statistical design, in contrast to executing selected tests and appealing to the randomness of operational settings for drawing statistical inferences. Instead, random testing is introduced as a part of the statistical design itself so that when development and testing are completed, statistical inferences are made about the operation of the system.

Dyer, M.↗

"Interactive Classification Technology"

The investigators are upgrading a knowledge representation language called SL (Symbolic Language) and an automated reasoning system called SMS (Symbolic Manipulation System) to enable the technologies to be used in automated reasoning and interactive classification systems. The overall goals of the project are: a) the enhancement of the representation language SL to accommodate multiple perspectives and a wider range of meaning; b) the development of a sufficient set of operators to enable the interpreter of SL to handle representations of basic cognitive acts; and c) the development of a default inference scheme to operate over SL notation as it is encoded. As to particular goals the first-year work plan focused on inferencing and.representation issues, including: 1) the development of higher level cognitive/ classification functions and conceptual models for use in inferencing and decision making; 2) the specification of a more detailed scheme of defaults and the enrichment of SL notation to accommodate the scheme; and 3) the adoption of additional perspectives for inferencing.

deBessonet, Cary↗

A Theoretical Operational Model for Complex Experiments and its Invariance Theorems

We develop and systematize the Theoretical–Operational Model (TOM), a framework that treats preparation and measurement —including their operational residues— as intrinsic structures of physical theory. The central contribution is a principled geometric–algebraic organization of admissible operational deformations, formulated using quantum channels, renormalization-style flows, and information-geometric tools. Within this structure, operational residues and background processes are represented as effective morphisms attached to these operational components, whose invariants yield constraints on how theoretical parameters vary under specified classes of deformations. Illustrations drawn from muon–electron conversion, long-baseline neutrino oscillations, and quark–gluon-plasma phenomenology show how TOM maps operational effects into inferences about theoretical parameters, enables systematic cross-experimental comparisons, and stabilizes parameter estimation against defined deformation families. By embedding the operational layer—together with its residues—within a structured theoretical setting, TOM supports both theory testing and theory development, clarifying the conceptual relation between experimental realization and the physical quantities represented by the theory.

Pronskikh, Vitaly [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000002518174↗

DeepM&Mnet: Inferring the electroconvection multiphysics fields based on operator approximation by neural networks

Electroconvection is a multiphysics problem involving coupling of the flow field with the electric field as well as the cation and anion concentration fields. Here, we use electroconvection as a benchmark problem to put forward a new data assimilation framework, the DeepM&Mnet, for simulating multiphysics and multiscale problems at speeds much faster than standard numerical methods using pre-trained neural networks. We first pre-train DeepONets that can predict independently each field, given general inputs from the rest of the fields of the coupled system. DeepONets can approximate nonlinear operators and are composed of two sub-networks, a branch net for the input fields and a trunk net for the locations of the output field. DeepONets, which are extremely fast, are used as building blocks in the DeepM&Mnet and form constraints for the multiphysics solution along with some sparse available measurements of any of the fields. We demonstrate the new methodology and document the accuracy of each individual DeepONet, and subsequently we present two different DeepM&Mnet architectures that infer accurately and efficiently 2D electroconvection fields for unseen electric potentials. Furthermore, the DeepM&Mnet framework is general and can be applied for building any complex multiphysics and multiscale models based on very few measurements using pre-trained DeepONets in a “plug-and-play” mode.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model Based Autonomy for Robust Mars Operations

Space missions have historically relied upon a large ground staff, numbering in the hundreds for complex missions, to maintain routine operations. When an anomaly occurs, this small army of engineers attempts to identify and work around the problem. A piloted Mars mission, with its multiyear duration, cost pressures, half-hour communication delays and two-week blackouts cannot be closely controlled by a battalion of engineers on Earth. Flight crew involvement in routine system operations must also be minimized to maximize science return. It also may be unrealistic to require the crew have the expertise in each mission subsystem needed to diagnose a system failure and effect a timely repair, as engineers did for Apollo 13. Enter model-based autonomy, which allows complex systems to autonomously maintain operation despite failures or anomalous conditions, contributing to safe, robust, and minimally supervised operation of spacecraft, life support, In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) and power systems. Autonomous reasoning is central to the approach. A reasoning algorithm uses a logical or mathematical model of a system to infer how to operate the system, diagnose failures and generate appropriate behavior to repair or reconfigure the system in response. The 'plug and play' nature of the models enables low cost development of autonomy for multiple platforms. Declarative, reusable models capture relevant aspects of the behavior of simple devices (e.g. valves or thrusters). Reasoning algorithms combine device models to create a model of the system-wide interactions and behavior of a complex, unique artifact such as a spacecraft. Rather than requiring engineers to all possible interactions and failures at design time or perform analysis during the mission, the reasoning engine generates the appropriate response to the current situation, taking into account its system-wide knowledge, the current state, and even sensor failures or unexpected behavior.

Kurien, James A.↗

Source-Resolved Inversion of Elemental Carbon Emissions in California Using Log-Space Bayesian Inference

Elemental carbon (EC), operationally quantified by thermal-optical analysis, is widely used as a proxy for black carbon (BC) relevant to short-term climate forcing and public health. Current EC emission inventories remain highly uncertain, with persistent discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we develop a source-resolved, log-space Bayesian inversion framework applied to estimate California’s statewide EC emissions in 2019. By integrating surface EC measurements from the EPA’s Air Quality System network with high-resolution source contributions simulated by a chemical transport model, we identify a one-third underestimation in the existing statewide EC inventory, requiring an increase of the total from a prior of 8.58 [5.49–13.75] Gg year–1 to a posterior estimate of 12.78 [10.71–15.37] Gg year–1. This discrepancy is primarily driven by substantial underestimations in the power and industrial and off-road mobile sectors. Furthermore, population-weighted exposure analysis reveals a marked sectoral divergence between emission mass and health burden: off-road mobile sources dominate both emissions and exposure, accounting for 31% of statewide exposure, while residential wood combustion contributes 26% of total exposure despite comprising only 19% of total emissions, due to its source proximity to population. These findings underscore the need to update sector-specific EC speciation profiles and demonstrate that mitigation strategies targeting off-road mobile sources and residential wood combustion are critical for reducing EC-related health impacts in California.

Zhang, Jie↗

Application of advanced causal analyses to identify processes governing secondary organic aerosols

Abstract Understanding how different physical and chemical atmospheric processes affect the formation of fine particles has been a persistent challenge. Inferring causal relations between the various measured features affecting the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles is complicated since correlations between variables do not necessarily imply causality. Here, we apply a state-of-the-art information transfer measure coupled with the Koopman operator framework to infer causal relations between isoprene epoxydiol SOA (IEPOX-SOA) and different chemistry and meteorological variables derived from detailed regional model predictions over the Amazon rainforest. IEPOX-SOA represents one of the most complex SOA formation pathways and is formed by the interactions between natural biogenic isoprene emissions and anthropogenic emissions affecting sulfate, acidity and particle water. Since the regional model captures the known relations of IEPOX-SOA with different chemistry and meteorological features, their simulated time series implicitly include their causal relations. We show that our causal model successfully infers the known major causal relations between total particle phase 2-methyl tetrols (the dominant component of IEPOX-SOA over the Amazon) and input features. We provide the first proof of concept that the application of our causal model better identifies causal relations compared to correlation and random forest analyses performed over the same dataset. Our work has tremendous implications, as our methodology of causal discovery could be used to identify unknown processes and features affecting fine particles and atmospheric chemistry in the Earth’s atmosphere.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

I Know I'm Right, But Does My Phone?

Transportation is the largest source of green-house gas emissions in the United States. Reducing transportation emissions depends on human travel behavior, which relies on local land use and planning. Travel diaries, consisting of sequences of trips between places for a particular individual, are typically used to instrument human travel behavior. However, these diaries are only as accurate as the underlying methods used to construct them. Travel diary algorithms have been a popular research topic since the advent of GPS tracking surveys. Mode inference algorithms in particular have been well represented in literature. However, these algorithms have typically been validated using prompted recall of pre-segmented trips, which doesn't account for segmentation error, thus disregarding the continuity of mode inference. Furthermore, phone operating systems and applications have adopted battery-conserving techniques, but we are not aware of prior work that has characterized the resulting data collection errors or evaluated procedures to mitigate them. We introduce a framework to evaluate accuracy of trip length computations and mode inference. We develop a temporal alignment procedure in analyzing continuous mode-segmented trajectories for groups of trips. We then apply our framework to evaluate an example set of travel diary algorithms from the open-source OpenPATH travel diary platform against MobilityNet, a public dataset containing information from three artificial timelines that cover 15 different travel modes. Our results show that inference based on an integration with map features results in weighted F_1 scores of 0.60 (iOS) and 0.74 (android). We also show that OpenPATH tends to under count trip length, with mean of signed relative error of -0.0438 on android and -0.0704 on iOS. We hope that other travel diary algorithms will be evaluated using this standardized process, and that the results used to understand and improve the state-of-the-art in this field.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems

Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DESI DR2 results. II. Measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations and cosmological constraints

We present baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements from more than 14 million galaxies and quasars drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2), based on three years of operation. For cosmology inference, these galaxy measurements are combined with DESI Lyman-𝛼 forest BAO results presented in a companion paper (M. Abdul-Karim et al., companion paper, Phys. Rev. D 112, 083514 2025.). The DR2 BAO results are consistent with DESI DR1 and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and their distance-redshift relationship matches those from recent compilations of supernovae (SNe) over the same redshift range. The results are well described by a flat Λ cold dark matter (Λ⁢CDM) model, but the parameters preferred by BAO are in mild, 2.3⁢𝜎 tension with those determined from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), although the DESI results are consistent with the acoustic angular scale 𝜃 * that is well measured by Planck. This tension is alleviated by dark energy with a time-evolving equation of state parametrized by 𝑤0 and 𝑤𝑎, which provides a better fit to the data, with a favored solution in the quadrant with 𝑤 0 >−1 and 𝑤 𝑎 <0. This solution is preferred over Λ ⁢CDM at 3.1⁢𝜎 for the combination of DESI BAO and CMB data. When also including SNe, the preference for a dynamical dark energy model over Λ⁢ CDM ranges from 2.8 − 4.2⁢𝜎 depending on which SNe sample is used. We present evidence from other data combinations which also favor the same behavior at high significance. From the combination of DESI and CMB we derive 95% upper limits on the sum of neutrino masses, finding ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.064 eV assuming Λ ⁢CDM and ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.16 eV in the 𝑤0⁢𝑤𝑎 model. Unless there is an unknown systematic error associated with one or more datasets, it is clear that Λ⁢ CDM is being challenged by the combination of DESI BAO with other measurements and that dynamical dark energy offers a possible solution.

Baryon acoustic oscillations↗

Electrifying Education: Insights into Charging Electric School Buses in the United States

To combat climate change, the United States joined 193 Parties in committing to the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 2 degrees C or less, and decarbonizing transportation will be a key requirement for achieving this goal. School buses (SBs) are a common form of student transport in the U.S. with nearly all SBs today powered by fossil fuels (primarily diesel). As a result, SBs have historically been a concerning source of both greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and local air pollutants with negative health impacts for students and others living nearby. Electric SBs (ESBs) are a promising emerging technology for decarbonizing student transport, however, ESB adoption in the U.S. remains at an early stage (approximate 1.1%) with many outstanding uncertainties. This study aims to elucidate several of these by taking inventory of the total SB stock within U.S. states and studying real-world SB operating profiles to infer potential battery range requirements, daily charging opportunities, and charging infrastructure requirements for ESBs. In addition, we observe the geographic trends of early-stage ESB adoption, which can be used to better understand early adopter patterns and train vehicle technology adoption models.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Application of parallel distributed processing to space based systems

The concept of using Parallel Distributed Processing (PDP) to enhance automated experiment monitoring and control is explored. Recent very large scale integration (VLSI) advances have made such applications an achievable goal. The PDP machine has demonstrated the ability to automatically organize stored information, handle unfamiliar and contradictory input data and perform the actions necessary. The PDP machine has demonstrated that it can perform inference and knowledge operations with greater speed and flexibility and at lower cost than traditional architectures. In applications where the rule set governing an expert system's decisions is difficult to formulate, PDP can be used to extract rules by associating the information an expert receives with the actions taken.

Macdonald, J. R.↗

Instructable autonomous agents

In contrast to current intelligent systems, which must be laboriously programmed for each task they are meant to perform, instructable agents can be taught new tasks and associated knowledge. This thesis presents a general theory of learning from tutorial instruction and its use to produce an instructable agent. Tutorial instruction is a particularly powerful form of instruction, because it allows the instructor to communicate whatever kind of knowledge a student needs at whatever point it is needed. To exploit this broad flexibility, however, a tutorable agent must support a full range of interaction with its instructor to learn a full range of knowledge. Thus, unlike most machine learning tasks, which target deep learning of a single kind of knowledge from a single kind of input, tutorability requires a breadth of learning from a broad range of instructional interactions. The theory of learning from tutorial instruction presented here has two parts. First, a computational model of an intelligent agent, the problem space computational model, indicates the types of knowledge that determine an agent's performance, and thus, that should be acquirable via instruction. Second, a learning technique, called situated explanation specifies how the agent learns general knowledge from instruction. The theory is embodied by an implemented agent, Instructo-Soar, built within the Soar architecture. Instructo-Soar is able to learn hierarchies of completely new tasks, to extend task knowledge to apply in new situations, and in fact to acquire every type of knowledge it uses during task performance - control knowledge, knowledge of operators' effects, state inferences, etc. - from interactive natural language instructions. This variety of learning occurs by applying the situated explanation technique to a variety of instructional interactions involving a variety of types of instructions (commands, statements, conditionals, etc.). By taking seriously the requirements of flexible tutorial instruction, Instructo-Soar demonstrates a breadth of interaction and learning capabilities that goes beyond previous instructable systems, such as learning apprentice systems. Instructo-Soar's techniques could form the basis for future 'instructable technologies' that come equipped with basic capabilities, and can be taught by novice users to perform any number of desired tasks.

Huffman, Scott Bradley↗

Interactive Classification Technology

The investigators upgraded a knowledge representation language called SL (Symbolic Language) and an automated reasoning system called SMS (Symbolic Manipulation System) to enable the more effective use of the technologies in automated reasoning and interactive classification systems. The overall goals of the project were: 1) the enhancement of the representation language SL to accommodate a wider range of meaning; 2) the development of a default inference scheme to operate over SL notation as it is encoded; and 3) the development of an interpreter for SL that would handle representations of some basic cognitive acts and perspectives.

deBessonet, Cary↗

Terrain Physical Properties Derived from Orbital Data and the First 360 Sols of Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity Rover Observations in Gale Crater

Physical properties of terrains encountered by the Curiosity rover during the rst 360 sols of operations have been inferred from analysis of the scour zones produced by Sky Crane Landing System engine plumes, wheel touch down dynamics, pits produced by Chemical Camera (ChemCam) laser shots, rover wheel traverses over rocks, the extent of sinkage into soils, and the magnitude and sign of rover-based slippage during drives. Results have been integrated with morphologic, mineralogic, and thermophysical properties derived from orbital data, and Curiosity-based measurements, to understand the nature and origin of physical properties of traversed terrains. The hummocky plains (HP) landing site and traverse locations consist ofmoderately to well-consolidated bedrock of alluvial origin variably covered by slightly cohesive, hard-packedbasaltic sand and dust, with both embedded and surface-strewn rock clasts. Rock clasts have been addedthrough local bedrock weathering and impact ejecta emplacement and form a pavement-like surface in whichonly small clasts (5 to 10 cm wide) have been pressed into the soil during wheel passages. The beddedfractured (BF) unit, site of Curiositys rst drilling activity, exposes several alluvial-lacustrine bedrock unitswith little to no soil cover and varying degrees of lithication. Small wheel sinkage values (1 cm) for both HPand BF surfaces demonstrate that compaction resistance countering driven-wheel thrust has been minimaland that rover slippage while traversing across horizontal surfaces or going uphill, and skid going downhill,have been dominated by terrain tilts and wheel-surface material shear modulus values.

Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity Gale Crater↗

Operator function modeling: Cognitive task analysis, modeling and intelligent aiding in supervisory control systems

The design, implementation, and empirical evaluation of task-analytic models and intelligent aids for operators in the control of complex dynamic systems, specifically aerospace systems, are studied. Three related activities are included: (1) the models of operator decision making in complex and predominantly automated space systems were used and developed; (2) the Operator Function Model (OFM) was used to represent operator activities; and (3) Operator Function Model Expert System (OFMspert), a stand-alone knowledge-based system was developed, that interacts with a human operator in a manner similar to a human assistant in the control of aerospace systems. OFMspert is an architecture for an operator's assistant that uses the OFM as its system and operator knowledge base and a blackboard paradigm of problem solving to dynamically generate expectations about upcoming operator activities and interpreting actual operator actions. An experiment validated the OFMspert's intent inferencing capability and showed that it inferred the intentions of operators in ways comparable to both a human expert and operators themselves. OFMspert was also augmented with control capabilities. An interface allowed the operator to interact with OFMspert, delegating as much or as little control responsibility as the operator chose. With its design based on the OFM, OFMspert's control capabilities were available at multiple levels of abstraction and allowed the operator a great deal of discretion over the amount and level of delegated control. An experiment showed that overall system performance was comparable for teams consisting of two human operators versus a human operator and OFMspert team.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗