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DOE OSTI2022

Next Generation System Analysis Model Recently Added Features and Future Plans - Abstract

The Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended (NWPA 1982), established the federal government’s responsibility to accept spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from waste owners and generators for ultimate disposition. SNF generated by the current fleet of commercial nuclear reactors is being stored at the reactor sites in spent fuel pools (SFPs) and in dry independent spent fuel storage installations (ISFSIs). The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) is developing an Integrated Waste Management Program (IWMP) comprising a suite of options and supporting analyses to enable future informed choices. The IWMP is applying integrated waste management system architecture analysis, system engineering, and decision analysis principles to inform potential future decisions regarding potential nuclear waste management system architectures. Architecture analyses of the IWM system are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive system for managing nuclear waste that considers all major aspects of the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation software tool designed for the express purpose of modeling the IWM system. NGSAM imports data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Unified Database (e.g., historic assembly information, thermal profiles for assembly heat, at-reactor dry storage loadings) to ensure that the simulation initializes with a realistic representation of the state of commercial SNF in the United States. Recent major enhancements that have been implemented into NGSAM since NGSAM was last presented at the WM2019 conference include: • Tracking of railroad escort and buffer car acquisition. • Addition of heavy haul and barge routes for some sites, as well as support for user-defined inter-modal routes. • Updates to the logic that checks the thermal maps prior to package transport. • Addition of an allocation method that predicts when reactor sites will pack assemblies from their pools for dry storage and allocates packages to those reactor sites in the preceding periods, favoring direct transport packages and reducing the number of packages that reactor sites pack for dry storage at their ISFSIs. • Addition of reactor site family operational limits, which are used to limit the number of loads from the pool and from dry storage at a given reactor site per year. • Support has been added for multiple canister loading maps and packages having multiple compatible transportation overpacks. • Updates in the handling of non-commercial fuel, including a new database containing data to support the updates. • Support for repackaging at reactor sites. • Implementing additional output reports or modifying existing reports. • User edits can now be created and edited via the NGSAM website. • Ability to load packages for dry storage at ISF pools. • Same-type package blending at DOE sites. • Support for multi-mode transloading at reactor sites. These new features have improved NGSAM capabilities and/or improve the user experience with the model and will be discussed in more detail. The initial NGSAM requirements for advanced reactor fuels, reprocessing, treatment, and conditioning are preliminary and are described at a high level in this paper: analysts will provide more specific requirements to the NGSAM team in the future. Additionally, there are many data needs associated with modeling advanced reactors in NGSAM, but many of the data or plans are still in progress and/or yet to be fully defined. However, this document describes an initial exploration of the data relevant to this program. Advanced reactor data will likely require revision as concepts evolve and new considerations are made. This is a technical paper that does not take into account contractual limitations or obligations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). For example, under the provisions of the Standard Contract, spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters is not an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment. To the extent discussions or recommendations in this paper conflict with the provisions of the Standard Contract, the Standard Contract governs the obligations of the parties, and this paper in no manner supersedes, overrides, or amends the Standard Contract. This paper reflects technical work which could support future decision making by DOE. No inferences should be drawn from this paper regarding future actions by DOE, which are limited both by the terms of the Standard Contract and Congressional appropriations for the Department to fulfill its obligations under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act including licensing and construction of a spent nuclear fuel repository.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling gas migration through clay-based buffer material using coupled multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics with stress-dependent gas permeability

A model for gas migration through clay-based buffer material is developed for modeling gas generation and migration associated with deep geologic nuclear waste disposal. The model is based on a multiphase fluid flow and geomechanics simulator that is adapted to consider enhanced gas flow when gas pressure is high enough to approach the confining stress magnitude. A key feature in the model is a direct coupling between gas permeability and stress, through a non-linear stress-dependent permeability function. The model was first tested and calibrated by modelling two different laboratory gas migration tests on Wyoming (MX-80) bentonite samples. The calibrated model was then applied to model gas migration through a bentonite buffer of a large-scale gas injection test (Lasgit) conducted at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in Sweden. Observed preferential gas migration along interfaces (between compacted blocks and along the canister surface) required explicit representation of such interfaces in the model. The model with the stress-dependent gas permeability accurately captured observed experimental responses in terms of gas breakthrough time, peak gas pressure, and cumulative gas flow rates. The calibrated model was finally applied to simulate migration of hydrogen gas generated within a breached nuclear waste canister over 10,000 years, involving migration of much larger gas volumes. For the considered gas generation rate and host rock properties, the generated gas could migrate through the bentonite buffer and released into the surrounding host rock at a maximum gas pressure somewhat higher than the initial total stress, though a significant amount of hydrogen remained within the buffer. This modelling sets the stage for further detailed analysis of the impact of hydrogen gas generation on the long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of Nuclear Spent Fuel Disposal in Clay-Bearing Rock - Process Model Development and Experimental Studies

This report represents the milestone deliverable M2SF-23SN010301072 “Evaluation of Nuclear Spent Fuel Disposal in Clay-Bearing Rock - Process Model Development and Experimental Studies” The report provides a status update of FY23 activities for the work package Argillite Disposal work packages for the DOE-NE Spent Fuel Waste Form Science and Technology (SFWST) Program. Clay-rich geological media (often referred as shale or argillite) are among the most abundant type of sedimentary rock near the Earth’s surface. Argillaceous rock formations have the following advantageous attributes for deep geological nuclear waste disposal: widespread geologic occurrence, found in stable geologic settings, low permeability, self-sealing properties, low effective diffusion coefficient, high sorption capacity, and have the appropriate depth and thickness to host nuclear waste repository concepts. The DOE R&D program under the Spent Fuel Waste Science Technology (SFWST) campaign has made key progress (through experiment, modeling, and testing) in the study of chemical and physical phenomena that could impact the long-term safety assessment of heat-generating nuclear waste disposition in clay/shale/argillaceous rock. International collaboration activities comprising field-scale heater tests, field data monitoring, and laboratory-scale experiments provide key information on changes to the engineered barrier system (EBS) material exposed high thermal loads. Moreover, consideration of direct disposal of large capacity dual-purpose canisters (DPCs) as part of the back-end SNF waste disposition strategy has generated interest in improving our understanding of the effects of elevated temperatures on the engineered barrier system (EBS) design concepts. Chemical and structural analyses of sampled bentonite material from laboratory tests at elevated temperatures are key to the characterization of thermal effects affecting bentonite clay barrier performance. The knowledge provided by these experiments is crucial to constrain the extent of sacrificial zones in the EBS design during the thermal period. Thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) data collected from heater tests and laboratory experiments have been used in the development, validation, and calibration of THMC simulators to model near-field coupled processes. This information leads to the development of simulation approaches to assess issues on coupled processes involving porous media flow, transport, geomechanical phenomena, chemical interactions with barrier/geologic materials, and the development of EBS concepts. These lines of knowledge are central to the design of deep geological backfilled repository concepts where temperature plays a key role in the EBS behavior, potential interactions with host rock, and long-term performance in the safety assessment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Can we safely go to 200 °C? An integrated approach to assessing impacts to the engineered barrier system in a high-temperature repository

Abstract. This presentation gives on overview of the complex thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes occurring during the disposal of heat-producing high-level radioactive waste in geologic repositories. A specific focus is on the role of compacted bentonite, which is commonly used as an engineered backfill material for emplacement tunnels because of its low permeability, high swelling pressure, and radionuclide retention capacity. Laboratory and field tests integrated with THMC modeling have provided an effective way to deepen our understanding of temperature-related perturbations in the engineered barrier system; however, most of this work has been conducted for maximum temperatures around 100 ∘C. In contrast, some international disposal programs have recently started investigations to understand whether local temperatures in the bentonite of up to 200 ∘C could be tolerated with no significant changes to safety relevant properties. Raising the maximum temperature is attractive for economical and safety reasons but faces the challenge of exposing the bentonite to significant temperature increases. Strong thermal gradients may induce complex moisture transport processes while geochemical processes, such as cementation and perhaps also illitization effects may occur, all of which could strongly affect the bentonite and near-field rock properties. Here, we present initial investigations of repository behavior exposed to strongly elevated temperatures. We will start discussing our current knowledge base for temperature effects in repositories exposed to a maximum temperature of 100 ∘C, based on data and related modeling analysis from a large heater experiment conducted for over 18 years in the Grimsel Test Site in Switzerland. We then show results from coupled THMC simulations of a nuclear waste repository in a clay formation exposed to a maximum temperature of 200 ∘C. We also explore preliminary data from a bench-scale laboratory mock-up experiment, which was designed to represent the strong THMC gradients occurring in a “hot” repository, and we finally touch on a full-scale field heater test to be conducted soon in the Grimsel Test Site underground research laboratory in Switzerland (referred to as HotBENT).

Birkholzer, Jens T. (ORCID:0000000279891912)↗
DOE OSTI2026

M3SF-25LL010302052 - Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-25LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Host Rock Properties & Processes - LLNL Number SF-25LL01030205. Observed changes in radionuclide sorption after bentonite/clay heating have implications for radionuclide diffusive transport through engineered barriers and must be considered when designing waste disposal repositories. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are examining how this mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. Sorption experiments and data analysis for 233 U were initiated in FY24 following earlier experiments performed on 243 Am, 90 Sr, 137 Cs. In FY25, we completed the 233 U study and initiated and completed a study of 237 Np sorption. Below, we summarize the results and potential impacts of hydrothermal alteration on radionuclide retardation and assess the importance of this process to radionuclide migration from a GHRDC. We also use statistical tools (i.e. PCA) to help us determine the major drivers in affecting changes in measured Kd values induced by hydrothermal alteration. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. In November 2024 the paper “Selenium interaction with iron minerals: Quantitative comparison of sorption and coprecipitation impacts on mobility” was published in Applied Geochemistry. A short update of results to date is presented below. In FY25, we also actively supported the DITUSC project, which is part of the EURADII initiative, as associate partners. We are executing the Migration2025 conference and support associated the NEA-TDB and Thermochimie workshops that will provide critical international engagements and develop consensus and synergy in thermodynamics as it relates to supporting the US nuclear waste repository program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning surrogates for surface complexation model of uranium sorption to oxides

Abstract The safety assessments of the geological storage of spent nuclear fuel require understanding the underground radionuclide mobility in case of a leakage from multi-barrier canisters. Uranium, the most common radionuclide in non-reprocessed spent nuclear fuels, is immobile in reduced form (U(IV) and highly mobile in an oxidized state (U(VI)). The latter form is considered one of the most dangerous environmental threats in the safety assessments of spent nuclear fuel repositories. The sorption of uranium to mineral surfaces surrounding the repository limits their mobility. We quantify uranium sorption using surface complexation models (SCMs). Unfortunately, numerical SCM solvers often encounter convergence problems due to the complex nature of convoluted equations and correlations between model parameters. This study explored two machine learning surrogates for the 2-pK Triple Layer Model of uranium retention by oxide surfaces if released as U(IV) in the oxidizing conditions: random forest regressor and deep neural networks. Our surrogate models, particularly DNN, accurately reproduce SCM model predictions at a fraction of the computational cost without any convergence issues. The safety assessment of spent fuel repositories, specifically the migration of leaked radioactive waste, will benefit from having ultrafast AI/ML surrogates for the computationally expensive sorption models that can be easily incorporated into larger-scale contaminant migration models. One such model is presented here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Knowledge Management: FY22 Los Alamos National Laboratory Hydrothermal Lab for Spent Fuel Campaign R&D

The use of Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS) for spent nuclear fuel disposal is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Energy as a part of the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) Campaign. Such dry spent fuel canisters would be loaded with fuel bundles, and then transported and stored at a nuclear waste repository. Once the canisters are in place underground, the space between the canister and the wall rock will be filled with bentonite clay. Recent research has prioritized high temperature interactions of EBS materials, including phase transitions in bentonite clay, in order to reduce worker dose and repository cost. Higher temperature (i.e., 200ºC) thermal limits are a new area of investigation by the U.S. and international repository science programs. The hydrothermal experimental laboratory at Los Alamos, consisting of rocking autoclaves and cold seal assemblies, is critical to the campaign and presents a significant temperature / pressure safety hazard. Therefore, working competently and safely with these systems is very important to the knowledge management procedures developed at this laboratory. Therefore, the operation of these two systems (rocking autoclaves and cold seal assemblies) will be discussed first.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

M3SF-24LL010301062-Surface Complexation/Ion Exchange Data Integration for Radionuclide Sorption to Clay Minerals

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-24LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Work Package SF-24LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for sorption modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) and other international sorption database development groups in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

M4SF-22LL010301062-Surface Complexation Database and Hybrid ML Model Development for GDSA

This progress report (Level 4 Milestone Number M4SF-22LL010301062) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Argillite International Collaborations Activity Number Activity SF-22LL01030106. The activity is focused on our long-term commitment to engaging our partners in international nuclear waste repository research. The focus of this milestone is the establishment of international collaborations for surface complexation modeling and the associated impacts of unlocking larger, community-based datasets. More specifically, we are developing a database framework for Spent Fuel and Waste and Science Technology (SFWST) that is aligned with the Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR) sorption database development group in support of the database needs of the SFWST program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Water-Weakening and Time-Dependent Deformation of Organic-Rich Chalks

Abstract The Ghareb Formation is a shallowly buried porous chalk in southern Israel that is being considered as a host rock for a geologic nuclear waste repository. Setup and operation of a repository will induce significant mechanical, hydrological and chemical perturbations in the Ghareb. Developing a secure repository requires careful characterization of the rock behavior to different loads. To characterize hydromechanical behavior of the Ghareb, several short- and long-term deformation experiments were conducted. Hydrostatic loading tests were conducted both dry and water-saturated, using different setups to measure elastic properties, time-dependent behavior, and permeability. A set of triaxial tests were conducted to measure the elastic properties and rock strength under differential loading at dry and water-saturated conditions. The hydrostatic tests showed the Ghareb began to deform inelastically around 12–15 MPa, a relatively low effective pressure. Long-term permeability measurements demonstrated that permeability declined with increasing effective pressure and was permanently reduced by ~ 1 order of magnitude after unloading pressure. Triaxial tests showed that water saturation significantly degrades the rock properties of the Ghareb, indicating water-weakening is a significant risk during repository operation. Time-dependent deformation is observed during hold periods of both the hydrostatic and triaxial tests, with deformation being primarily visco-plastic. The rate of deformation and permeability loss is strongly controlled by the effective pressure as well. Additionally, during holds of both hydrostatic and triaxial tests, it is observed that when water-saturated, radial strain surpassed axial strain when above effective pressures of 13–20 MPa. Thus, deformation anisotropy may occur in situ during operations even if the stress conditions are hydrostatic when above this pressure range.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Irradiation Effect on Noble Metal Particles in Water Using in situ Liquid Cell STEM Observation

During geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in an engineered nuclear waste repository, once all other barriers have degraded, oxidizing may occur at the solid-water interface owing to a self-generated radiolytic field. The repository design includes large quantities of iron (Fe), that is anticipated to corrode under an anoxic environment, and generate hydrogen (H 2 ) gas. This H 2 gas is thought to be able to suppress the dissolution of SNF through a catalytic reaction with noble metal particles (NMP) that are pre-existing in the SNF. This interaction leads to the decomposition of the major oxidant, hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ). In conclusion, these processes are described in the Fuel Matrix Degradation (FMD) model that is being used to predict SNF degradation rates. The NMP, therefore, plays an important role within the FMD model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

TRIPWIRE – Deployment and Field-Testing Report

TRIPWIRE is a multi-modal system for containment verification in inaccessible radiological and nuclear waste repositories. The sensing modes are focused on radiation, electromagnetic and vibration. The radiation detection component has been developed over the last three years at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This development has focused on the fabrication, characterization, and testing of long-length (greater than 10-m) plastic scintillating fibers. This fiscal year, the focus of TRIPWIRE has been on field testing and demonstration of the radiation sensing component in a relevant environment. After reviewing the static storage facilities at INL, the Radioactive Scrap Waste Facility (RSWF) south storage area outside the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) was selected due to its periodic changes in configuration and inventory. This report summarizes the research outcomes for the work performed in fiscal year (FY) 2023.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Selenium interaction with iron minerals: Quantitative comparison of sorption and coprecipitation impacts on mobility

Given the significance of selenium (Se) as a micronutrient, the radioactive nature of some of its isotopes, and its affinity to iron (Fe) minerals, extensive research has been conducted on the sorption mechanisms between Se and these minerals. Here, in this study, we employ sorption data sourced from the L-SCIE database and coprecipitation data from available literature to achieve the following objectives: i) establish coherence between adsorption and coprecipitation processes, ii) quantitatively evaluate the importance of these processes in nuclear waste repository science, and iii) propose a forward-looking approach for integrating coprecipitation into reactive transport models. Our findings indicate that a correlation between Se adsorption and coprecipitation can be established using the λ formalism. The comparable log(λ Se(IV) /λ Se(VI) ) ratios derived from adsorption and coprecipitation experiments suggest that these processes can be quantitatively compared and evaluated using our numerical approach. Across all iron oxide phases examined, coprecipitation leads to significantly greater immobilization of Se compared to adsorption. Specifically, for hydrous ferric oxide, hematite, and goethite, coprecipitation is predicted to result in 100–1000 times more Se immobilization compared to adsorption, irrespective of the Se oxidation state (Se(IV) or Se(VI)); notably stronger immobilization potential via coprecipitation was observed for magnetite. The modeling approach and quantitative analysis presented herein clearly highlight the importance of including coprecipitation processes when simulating Se (and other elements) transport, particularly under conditions where mineral compositions are transient or evolving with time. Neglecting coprecipitation in models is likely to lead to significant overestimates of migration.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temperature effects on adsorption and capillarity water retention mechanisms in constrained unsaturated soils

Abstract This paper focuses on the impact of elevated temperatures on the adsorptive and capillarity water retention mechanisms of unsaturated soils under constrained (constant volume) conditions. This topic is critical for simulating the thermo-hydraulic behavior of soils in hydrogeological or geotechnical applications, including climate change effects on near surface soils, energy piles or soil borehole thermal energy storage systems in unsaturated soil layers, and buffers for geological nuclear waste repositories. A nonisothermal soil water retention curve (SWRC) that separately considers the temperature-dependency of the key parameters governing adsorptive and capillarity water retention mechanisms and soil physical parameters (e.g., surface tension, contact angle, adsorption capacity, cation exchange capacity, mean cavitation suction, air entry value and equilibrium film thickness) was developed to provide insights into the impact of temperature on water retention over the full suction range. The nonisothermal SWRC was validated using experimental data on high plasticity clays, with a good prediction of temperature effects on adsorption and capillarity water retention mechanisms in constrained unsaturated soils.

Lu, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Oxide– and Silicate–Water Interfaces and Their Roles in Technology and the Environment

Interfacial reactions drive all elemental cycling on Earth and play pivotal roles in human activities such as agriculture, water purification, energy production and storage, environmental contaminant remediation, and nuclear waste repository management. The onset of the 21st century marked the beginning of a more detailed understanding of mineral aqueous interfaces enabled by advances in techniques that use tunable high-flux focused ultrafast laser and X-ray sources to provide near-atomic measurement resolution, as well as by nanofabrication approaches that enable transmission electron microscopy in a liquid cell. This leap into atomic- and nanometer-scale measurements has uncovered scale-dependent phenomena whose reaction thermodynamics, kinetics, and pathways deviate from previous observations made on larger systems. A second key advance is new experimental evidence for what scientists hypothesized but could not test previously, namely, interfacial chemical reactions are frequently driven by “anomalies” or “non-idealities” such as defects, nanoconfinement, and other nontypical chemical structures. Third, progress in computational chemistry has yielded new insights that allow a move beyond simple schematics, leading to a molecular model of these complex interfaces. In combination with surface-sensitive measurements, we have gained knowledge of the interfacial structure and dynamics, including the underlying solid surface and the immediately adjacent water and aqueous ions, enabling a better definition of what constitutes the oxide– and silicate–water interfaces. This critical review discusses how science progresses from understanding ideal solid–water interfaces to more realistic systems, focusing on accomplishments in the last 20 years and identifying challenges and future opportunities for the community to address. Further, we anticipate that the next 20 years will focus on understanding and predicting dynamic transient and reactive structures over greater spatial and temporal ranges as well as systems of greater structural and chemical complexity. Closer collaborations of theoretical and experimental experts across disciplines will continue to be critical to achieving this great aspiration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty propagation in pore water chemical composition calculation using surrogate models

Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗