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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Franck-Condon factor formulae for astrophysical and other molecules

Simple closed-form, approximate, analytic expressions for Franck-Condon factors are given. They provide reliable estimates for Franck-Condon factor arrays for molecular band systems for which only vibrational-frequency, equilibrium internuclear separation and reduced mass values are known, as is often the case for astrophysically interesting molecules such as CeO, CoH, CrH, CrO, CuH, GeH, LaO, NiH, SnH, and ZnH for band systems of which Franck-Condon arrays have been calculated.

Nicholls, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A modified coupled pair functional approach

A modified coupled pair functional (CPF) method is presented for the configuration interaction problem that dramatically improves properties for cases where the Hartree-Fock reference configuration is not a good zeroth-order wave function description. It is shown that the tendency for CPF to overestimate the effect of higher excitations arises from the choice of the geometric mean for the partial normalization denominator. The modified method is demonstrated for ground state dipole moment calculations of the NiH, CuH, and ZnH transition metal hydrides, and compared to singles-plus-doubles configuration interaction and the Ahlrichs et al. (1984) CPF method.

Chong, D. P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

National Institutes of Health Presentation at IPE Conference Program

The conference objective was to set up a working dialogue among representatives from industry and various Federal agencies. Discussed here are present National Institutes of Health (NIH) support in the area of intelligent processing equipment (IPE) and how researchers can work together on future research objectives. Information is given in viewgraph form with accompanying comments.

Holloway, Caroline↗
NASA NTRS1992

Opportunities for research on Space Station Freedom

NASA has allocated research accommodations on Freedom (equipment, utilities, etc.) to the program offices that sponsor space-based research and development as follows: Space Science and Applications (OSSA)--52 percent, Commercial Programs (OCP)--28 percent, Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST)--12 percent, and Space Flight (OSF)--8 percent. Most of OSSA's allocation will be used for microgravity and life science experiments; although OSSA's space physics, astrophysics, earth science and applications, and solar system exploration divisions also will use some of this allocation. Other Federal agencies have expressed an interest in using Space Station Freedom. They include the National Institutes of Health (NIH), U.S. Geological Survey, National Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Energy. Payload interfaces with space station lab support equipment must be simple, and experiment packages must be highly contained. Freedom's research facilities will feature International Standard Payload Racks (ISPR's), experiment racks that are about twice the size of a Spacelab rack. ESA's Columbus lab will feature 20 racks, the U.S. lab will have 12 racks, and the Japanese lab will have 10. Thus, Freedom will have a total of 42 racks versus 8 for Space lab. NASA is considering outfitting some rack space to accommodate small, self-contained payloads similar to the Get-Away-Special canisters and middeck-locker experiment packages flown on Space Shuttle missions. Crew time allotted to experiments on Freedom at permanently occupied capability will average 25 minutes per rack per day, compared to six hours per rack per day on Spacelab missions. Hence, telescience--the remote operation of space-based experiments by researchers on the ground--will play a very important role in space station research. Plans for supporting life sciences research on Freedom focus on the two basic goals of NASA 's space life sciences program: to ensure the health, safety, and productivity of humans in space and to acquire fundamental knowledge of biological processes. Space-based research has already shown that people and plants respond the same way to the microgravity environment: they lose structure. However, the mechanisms by which they respond are different, and researchers do not yet know much about these mechanisms. Life science research accommodations on Freedom will include facilities for experiments designed to address this and other questions, in fields such as gravitational biology, space physiology, and biomedical monitoring and countermeasures research.

Phillips, Robert W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Rotational frequencies of transition metal hydrides for astrophysical searches in the far-infrared

Accurate frequencies for the lowest rotational transitions of five transition metal hydrides (CrH, FeH, CoH, NiH, and CuH) in their ground electronic states are reported to help the identification of these species in astrophysical sources from their far-infrared spectra. Accurate frequencies are determined in two ways: for CuH, by calculation from rotational constants determined from higher J transitions with an accuracy of 190 kHz; for the other species, by extrapolation to zero magnetic field from laser magnetic resonance spectra with an accuracy of 0.7 MHz.

Brown, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

STS-69 Postflight Presentation

A postflight conference of the STS-69 mission is presented. The flightcrew ('The Dog Team') consisted of Cmdr. David Walker, Pilot Kenneth Cockrell, Payload Cmdr. James Voss, and Mission Specialists James Newman and Michael Gernhardt. The mission's primary objective was the deployment and retrieval of the SPARTAN-201 satellite, which investigated the interaction between the Sun and it's solar wind. Other secondary experiments and shuttle payloads included the Wake Shield Facility (WSF), which grew several layers of semiconductor films, the International Extreme Ultraviolet Hitchhiker (IEH-1), the Capillary Pumped Loop-2/Gas Bridge Assembly (CAPL-2/GBA), several Get Away Specials (GAS) experiments, the Electrolysis Performance Improvement Concept Study (EPICS), the Thermal Energy Storage (TES-2) experiment, the Commercial Generic Bioprocessing Apparatus-7 (CGBA-7), the National Institutes of Health-Cells 4 (NIH-C4) experiment, and the Biological Research in Canister-6 (BRIC-6) experiment. Earth views consisted of Saudi Arabia water wells, uncommon vortices over Oman, the Amazon River, the Bahamas, Somalia, a sunset over the Earth's horizon, and two hurricanes, Luis and Marilyn.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1996

STS-72 Flight Day 1

On this first day of the STS-72 mission, the flight crew, Cmdr. Brian Duffy, Pilot Brent W. Jett, and Mission Specialists Leroy Chiao, Daniel T. Barry, Winston E. Scott, and Koichi Wakata (NASDA), were shown in prelaunch and launch activities. This was the tenth flight of the Space Shuttle Orbiter Endeavour. The primary objectives of this mission were the retrieval of the Japanese Space Flyer Unit (SFU) spacecraft, the deployment and retrieval of the NASA Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology Flyer (OAST-FLYER) spacecraft, and two 6 1/2 hour spacewalks to test hardware and tools that will be used to assemble the International Space Station. Secondary objectives included the Shuttle Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SSBUV-8), the Shuttle Laser Altimeter GAS(5) (SLA-01/GAS(5)), the National Institutes of Health-R3 (NIH-R3), the Space Tissue Loss (STL/NIH-C), and Thermal Energy Storage (TES-2) experiments. Get-Away-Specials (GAS) included the USAF Academy G-342 Flexible Beam Experiment (FLEXBEAM-2), the Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies G-459 Protein Crystal Growth Experiments, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) GAS Ballast Can with Sample Return Experiment. This night launch was shown at various angles and distances from the launching pad.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1993

Comparison of Gavage, Water Bottle, and a High-Moisture Diet Bolus as Dosing Methods for Quantitative D-xylose Administration to B6D2F1 (Mus musculus) Mice

Gavage, water bottle, and diet incorporation are 3 dosing methods used orally to administer test compounds to rodents. These 3 methods were compared in mice to determine which represented the most quantitative delivery system. For dietary incorporation, a high-moisture bolus form of NIH-31 rodent meal was developed using hydroxypropyl methylcellulose as an autoclave-stable binding agent. A high-moisture bolus were selected to increase the acceptability of the dosed diet and to promote quantitative consumption through reduced wastage. The test compound used was D-xylose, a pentose sugar that may be quantitatively detected, colorimetrically, in urine following oral dosing. Six male and 6 female B6D2FI mice were placed in metabolism cages and dosed with a known quantity of D-xylose by each of the 3 methods. Urine was collected before and after each method of administration and analysed for total D-xylose; the per cent recovery was based upon the amount of D-xylose consumed. Quantitative consumption was apparently greatest for water bottle dosing with an average recovery of 56.0% of the original D-xylose dose. High-moisture bolus incorporation ranked second with 50.0% D-xylose recovery, and gavage was third with 41.0% D-xylose recovery.

Zimmer, J. Paul↗
NASA NTRS1998

Analytical Tools for Cloudscope Ice Measurement

The cloudscope is a ground or aircraft instrument for viewing ice crystals impacted on a sapphire window. It is essentially a simple optical microscope with an attached compact CCD video camera whose output is recorded on a Hi-8 mm video cassette recorder equipped with digital time and date recording capability. In aircraft operation the window is at a stagnation point of the flow so adiabatic compression heats the window to sublimate the ice crystals so that later impacting crystals can be imaged as well. A film heater is used for ground based operation to provide sublimation, and it can also be used to provide extra heat for aircraft operation. The compact video camera can be focused manually by the operator, and a beam splitter - miniature bulb combination provide illumination for night operation. Several shutter speeds are available to accommodate daytime illumination conditions by direct sunlight. The video images can be directly used to qualitatively assess the crystal content of cirrus clouds and contrails. Quantitative size spectra are obtained with the tools described in this report. Selected portions of the video images are digitized using a PCI bus frame grabber to form a short movie segment or stack using NIH (National Institute of Health) Image software with custom macros developed at DRI. The stack can be Fourier transform filtered with custom, easy to design filters to reduce most objectionable video artifacts. Particle quantification of each slice of the stack is performed using digital image analysis. Data recorded for each particle include particle number and centroid, frame number in the stack, particle area, perimeter, equivalent ellipse maximum and minimum radii, ellipse angle, and pixel number. Each valid particle in the stack is stamped with a unique number. This output can be used to obtain a semiquantitative appreciation of the crystal content. The particle information becomes the raw input for a subsequent program (FORTRAN) that synthesizes each slice and separates the new from the sublimating particles. The new particle information is used to generate quantitative particle concentration, area, and mass size spectra along with total concentration, solar extinction coefficient, and ice water content. This program directly creates output in html format for viewing with a web browser.

Arnott, W. Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2001

Studying Earth's Environment From Space: Classroom and Laboratory Activities with Instructor Resources

Standard, text-book based learning for earth, ocean, and atmospheric sciences has been limited by the unavailability of quantitative teaching materials. While a descriptive presentation, in a lecture format, of discrete satellite images is often adequate for high school classrooms, this is seldom the case at the undergraduate level. In order to address these concerns, a series of numerical exercises for the Macintosh was developed for use with satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperature, pigment and sea ice concentration data. Using a modified version of NIH Image, to analyze actual satellite data, students are able to better understand ocean processes, such as circulation, upwelling, primary production, and ocean/atmosphere coupling. Graphical plots, image math, and numerical comparisons are utilized to substantiate temporal and spatial trends in sea surface temperature and ocean color. Particularly for institutions that do not offer a program in remote sensing, the subject matter is presented as modular units, each of which can be readily incorporated into existing curricula. These materials have been produced in both CD-ROM and WWW format, making them useful for classroom or lab setting. Depending upon the level of available computer support, graphics can be displayed directly from the CD-ROM, or as a series of color view graphs for standard overhead projection.

Smith, Elizabeth A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Neural-Thyroid Interaction on Skeletal Isomyosin in Zero Gravity

The primary goal of the project was to develop a ground based model to first study the role of the nerve and of thyroid hormone (T3) in the regulation of body growth and skeletal muscle growth and differentiation in rodents. A primary objective was to test the hypothesis that normal weight bearing activity is essential for the development of antigravity, slow twitch skeletal muscle and the corresponding slow myosin heavy chain (MHC) gene; whereas, T3 was obligatory for general body and muscle growth and the establishment of fast MHC phenotype in typically fast locomoter muscles. These ground based experiments would provide both the efficacy and background for a spaceflight experiment (referred to as the Neurolab Mission) jointly sponsored by the NIH and NASA.

Baldwin, Kenneth M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

ISS Flight 2A.2B (STS-106): Commercial Generic Bioprocessing Apparatus (CGBA) Payload BioServe Space Technologies

The two experiments housed in the Commercial Generic Bioprocessing Apparatus (CGBA) during STS-106 were designed to explore how biological processes are affected by microgravity. The first was a developmental study into the effects of microgravity on motor-neuronal growth in the fruit fly species Drosophila melanogaster and the second study was designed to characterize changes in kidney cell gene expression. The objective of the primary experiment, called NIH-B1, was to determine how gravity affects neuronal development of the D. melanogaster embryo and larvae in microgravity, specifically observing the neural connections to muscle fibers.

Stodieck, Louis↗
NASA NTRS2001

Lactating Rats Retain Nursing Behavior and Maternal Care in Space

In 1997, suckling mammals were flown in space for the first time as part of the NIH.R3 experiment sponsored jointly by NIH (National Institutes of Health) and NASA. Six rat dams and litters (Rattus norvegicus) were launched on an eight-day Space Shuttle mission at each of three postnatal ages (P5, P8, and P15). Dams and litters (N = 10 pups/litter) were housed within modified Animal Enclosure Modules (AEMs). Comparisons were made to ground controls. Dams and litters were videotaped daily in flight. The P8 and P15 flight litters showed excellent survival (99%) and weight gain relative to AEM ground controls, whereas P5 litters showed reduced survival (0% and 60%, respectively) and weight gain (less than 40% AEM). To examine the possibility that failures of maternal care contributed to P5 results, we analyzed the dams' in-flight nursing, licking and retrieving from four video segments ranging from twelve to fifteen minutes in length with control data derived from multiple ground segments. Video analyses revealed clear evidence of maternal care in flight. For P5 dams, frequency and duration of nursing and licking bouts fell within or above one standard deviation of control values. Retrieving was noted in the P5 and P8 groups only. The observed results suggest that factors other than maternal care contributed to the low survival rates and body weight gains of the P5 flight offspring.

Daly, Megan E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Neurolab Spacelab Mission: Neuroscience Research in Space: Results from the STS-90, Neurolab Spacelab Mission

Neurolab (STS-90) represents a major scientific achievement that built upon the knowledge and capabilities developed during the preceding 15 successful Spacelab module missions. NASA proposed a dedicated neuroscience research flight in response to a Presidential declaration that the 1990's be the Decade of the Brain. Criteria were established for selecting research proposals in partnership with the National Institutes of Health (NM), the National Science Foundation, the Department of Defense, and a number of the International Space Agencies. The resulting Announcement of Opportunity for Neurolab in 1993 resulted in 172 proposals from scientists worldwide. After an NIH-managed peer review, NASA ultimately selected 26 proposals for flight on the Neurolab mission.

Buckey, Jay C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Demonstration of Single Axis Combined Attitude Control and Energy Storage Using Two Flywheels

The energy storage and attitude control subsystems of the typical satellite are presently distinct and separate. Energy storage is conventionally provided by batteries, either NiCd or NiH, and active attitude control is accomplished with control moment gyros (CMGs) or reaction wheels. An overall system mass savings can be realized if these two subsystems are combined using multiple flywheels for simultaneous kinetic energy storage and momentum transfer. Several authors have studied the control of the flywheels to accomplish this and have published simulation results showing the feasibility and performance. This paper presents the first experimental results showing combined energy storage and momentum control about a single axis using two flywheels.

Kenny, Barbara H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Program for the Increased Participation of Minorities in NASA-Related Research

The goal of this program is to increase the participation of minorities in NASA related research and "Science for the Nation s Interest". Collaborative research projects will be developed involving NASA-MSFC, National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC), other government agencies, industries and minority serving institutions (MSIs). The primary focus for the MSIs will be on Alabama A&M University and Tuskegee University, which are in partnership with the NSSTC. These schools have excellent Ph.D. programs in physics and materials science and engineering, respectively. The first phase of this program will be carried out at Alabama A&M University in the "Research and Development Office" in collaboration with Dr. Dorothy Huston, Vice President of Research and Development. The development assignment will be carried out at the NSSTC with Sandy Coleman/ RS01 and this will primarily involve working with Tuskegee University.A portion of the program will be devoted to identifying and contacting potential funding sources for use in establishing collaborative research projects between NASA-MSFC, other government agencies, NSSTC, industries, and MSIs. These potential funding sources include the National Science Foundation (NSF), National Institute of Health (NIH), Department of Defense (DOD), Army, Navy, and Air Force. Collaborative research projects will be written mostly in the following research areas: a. Cosmic radiation shielding materials b. Advanced propulsion material c. Biomedical materials and biosensors d. In situ resource utilization e. Photonics for NASA applications

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Intricate Crystal Structure of Dihydrolipoamide Dehydrogenase (E3) with its Binding Protein: Multiple Copies, Dynamic and Static Disorders

Human E3 and binding protein E3BP are two components of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex. Crystallization of E3 with 221-amino acid fragment of E3BP (E3BPdd) led to crystals that diffracted to a resolution of 2.6 Angstroms. Structure determination involved molecular replacement using a dimer of E3 homolog as a search model and de novo building of the E3BPdd peptide. Solution was achieved by inclusion of one E3 dimer at a time, followed by refinement until five E3 dimers were located. This complete content of E3 provided electron density maps suitable for tracing nine peptide chains of E3BPdd, eight of them being identified with partial occupancies. Final content of the asymmetric unit consists of five E3 dimers, each binding one E3BPdd molecule. In four of these molecular complexes, E3BPdd is in static disorder resulting in E3BPdd binding to either one or the other monomer of the E3 dimer. However, E3BPdd of the fifth E3 dimer forms specific contacts that lock it at one monomer. In addition to this static disorder, E3BPdd reveals high mobility in the limited space of the crystal lattice. Support from NIH and NASA.

Makal, A.↗