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At least 73 records · Page 4

Evidence for a Single Holocene Paleoseismic Event on the Pajarito Fault, Northern New Mexico

Low-slip rate fault systems tend to be less studied than their high-slip rate counterparts, and paleoseismic techniques used to study them may pose challenges in interpretation that differ from high-slip rate systems. A good example of this is the Pajarito fault system (PFS), a normal fault complex within the Rio Grande rift. Despite numerous previous paleoseismic trenching studies conducted on the PFS between 1990 and 2003, considerable uncertainty remains regarding its Holocene paleoseismic history, particularly for the primary Pajarito fault (PF). To further clarify the PF paleoseismic history, we present data from paleoseismic investigations of 6 trenches at 3 distinct locations along the PF. Though the totality of the age and structural data obtained in this study is complex and not entirely consistent with any one interpretation, a single Holocene paleoearthquake occurring younger than ∼1,600 to 2,300 kcal yr BP is the simplest interpretation. It is possible that the PF records two Holocene events, with a penultimate event 6.9–2.4 kcal yr BP event and the aforementioned most recent event (MRE) between 2.3 and 1.6 kcal yr BP. However, only a single wall of one trench, out of a total of 12 walls in our 6 trenches, provides evidence supporting that interpretation. This study finds evidence of a single late Holocene paleoseismic event on the PF and sparse evidence for 2 Holocene paleoseismic events on the PF and highlights the benefits of logging multiple trench walls to better understand the complexity that results from this low-slip rate, low-deposition-rate fault system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Joint Comments from the Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE NNSA) Los Alamos Field Office and Triad National Security, LLC on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s New Mexico State-Wide Municipal Separate Storm Sewer System Strawman General Permit

In December 2020 and March 2021, EPA issued two MS4 strawman permit drafts specific to the Los Alamos area. EPA made text changes in the 2 nd strawman permit based on stakeholder comments related to the initial draft. During the public meeting on the Los Alamos area designation decision held on February 13, 2024, EPA staff stated that comments from the past strawman permits would be incorporated into the new MS4 permit to be issued state-wide. However, it does not appear that any of the text changes from the 2 nd Los Alamos area strawman permit were included in this state-wide general MS4 strawman permit. For reference, the 2 nd Los Alamos area revised strawman permit is included with these comments as Attachment 2. Many of the following comments refer to or state EPA’s updated text included in the 2 nd Los Alamos area strawman permit. The updated text from this 2 nd strawman permit that are referenced in the following comments should be applicable state-wide and it is suggested that this past work be reconsidered and incorporated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying recharge sources and their impacts on a North Central New Mexico shallow aquifer using unsupervised machine learning

In this article, shallow aquifers are important but highly variable resources in arid to semi-arid regions. Limited shallow aquifer volume results in high sensitivity to recharge fluctuations, which can impact the local fauna and flora, and transport of contaminants in the aquifer or vadose zone. Aquifer response to external forcing (e.g., precipitation) is usually solved by estimating aquifer parameters and running physics-based models to match known fluctuations of hydraulic head. However, this technique is time and computationally expensive. Furthermore, high aquifer complexity decreases precision in physics-based models. Alternatively supervised machine learning is used to predict aquifer dynamics. However, these techniques rely on input data and struggle to interpret aquifer response for missing sources (i.e., snowpack data). To counter these problems, we propose an unsupervised machine learning technique (NMFk) to estimate the impact of different sources on aquifer recharge. NMFk is used to understand the influence of external forcing on shallow aquifer recharge in the Pajarito Plateau (Los Alamos, NM, USA). The results show how NMFk can be used to reduce the data dimension in a complex field dataset to three recharge signals that cause fluctuations within the field data. Here, the source signals are interpreted as rainfall, snowmelt, and a delayed aquifer response to the previous two signals. These results evidence how heterogeneous aquifers delimited by canyons incised into the Pajarito Plateau respond in similar ways to the source signals identified by NMFk. Furthermore, results show the importance of the local geology where faults act as sinks, and anthropogenic disturbances can facilitate infiltration amplifying the interpreted signal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Designing a dynamic vulnerability index to COVID-19 for New Mexico, USA

Motivation: Non-congregational shelters are a place where COVID-19 patients can quarantine away from their household until recovered. NM wants to establish non-congregational shelters for COVID-19 patients and first responders; Where? How many rooms? Create a decision support tool to assess which counties have the most vulnerable population to COVID-19; Socioeconomic status, community practices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of New Mexico

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2019 for New Mexico

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2019. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2019 edition from Standard 90.1-2016 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗