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DOE OSTI2022

Performance and power modeling and prediction using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods

Energy-efficient scientific applications require insight into how high performance computing system features impact the applications' power and performance. This insight can result from the development of performance and power models. Here, in this article, we use the modeling and prediction tool MuMMI (Multiple Metrics Modeling Infrastructure) and 10 machine learning methods to model and predict performance and power consumption and compare their prediction error rates. We use an algorithm-based fault-tolerant linear algebra code and a multilevel checkpointing fault-tolerant heat distribution code to conduct our modeling and prediction study on the Cray XC40 Theta and IBM BG/Q Mira at Argonne National Laboratory and the Intel Haswell cluster Shepard at Sandia National Laboratories. Our experimental results show that the prediction error rates in performance and power using MuMMI are less than 10% for most cases. By utilizing the models for runtime, node power, CPU power, and memory power, we identify the most significant performance counters for potential application optimizations, and we predict theoretical outcomes of the optimizations. Based on two collected datasets, we analyze and compare the prediction accuracy in performance and power consumption using MuMMI and 10 machine learning methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Harmonic Stability of MMC-HVDC With Passive Circulating Current Filters

A modular multilevel converter (MMC) is an emerging converter technology widely used in wind power applications using high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, and it has been largely investigated in medium-voltage solar harvesting as well as electric motor drives. Different from studies dealing with active circulating current control loops, this paper focuses on impedance modeling and harmonic stability studies for MMCs with passive circulating current filters (PCCFs). A power stage circuit including a PCCF is transformed and remodeled to obtain small-signal formulations. This transformation leads to additional high-order matrix computing complexity due to the added impedance subnetwork matrix from the PCCF as well as relevant crossed-frequency impacts. To simplify the computational burden, the proposed model aims to solve one arm equation instead of all six MMC arm equations. To achieve this result, additional challenges occur when the MMC is connected to a renewable energy source instead of the grid voltage, where low-level zero-sequence components might exist in the neutral point of three phases, especially in the case of no integrated advanced modular voltage balancing control, which prevents computational simplification. To overcome this challenge, further impedance matrix adjustments are conducted in this paper to theoretically suppress the impact of zero-sequence harmonics when obtaining small-signal impedance, taking into account the frequency coupling effect. Finally, simulations are carried out to validate the developed impedance model under different operating scenarios. Harmonic stability case studies of MMCs with PCCFs connected to renewable energy current sources are also presented, where frequency-domain stability analyses based on Bode diagrams are compared to time-domain simulation waveforms and FFTs, which validate the effectiveness of the proposed impedance model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solvent Dynamics Are Critical to Understanding Carbon Dioxide Dissolution and Hydration in Water

Simulations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in water may aid in understanding the impact of its accumulation in aquatic environments and help advance technologies for carbon capture and utilization (via, e.g., mineralization). Quantum mechanical (QM) simulations based on static molecular models with polarizable continuum solvation poorly reproduce the energetics of CO 2 hydration to form carbonic acid in water, independent of the level of QM theory employed. Only with density-functional-theory-based molecular dynamics and rare-event sampling, followed by energy corrections based on embedded correlated wavefunction theory (in conjunction with density functional embedding theory), can a close agreement between theory and experiment be achieved. Such multilevel simulations can serve as benchmarks for simpler, less costly models, giving insight into potential errors of the latter. The strong influence of sampling/averaging over dynamical solvent configurations on the energetics stems from the difference in polarity of both the transition state and product (both polar) versus the reactant (nonpolar). When a solute undergoes a change in polarity during reaction, affecting its interaction with the solvent, careful assessment of the energetic contribution of the solvent response to this change is critical. Here, we show that static models (without structural sampling) that incorporate three explicit water molecules can yield far superior results than models with more explicit water molecules because fewer water molecules yield less configurational artifacts. Static models intelligently incorporating both explicit (molecules directly participating in the reaction) and implicit solvation, along with a proper QM theory, e.g., CCSD(T) for closed-shell systems, can close the accuracy gap between static and dynamic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Models and Fast Simulation Algorithms for MARS Plants

With the successful commercialization of modular multilevel converters (MMC) and rapid increase in photovoltaic (PV) penetration and energy storage systems (ESS), one of the research areas being explored dynamically is integration of PV systems and ESS systems to MMCs. On this front, an integrated development of PV plants, ESS, and alternating- and direct-current (ac/dc) systems through Multi-Port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar (MARS) plant is proposed and being researched upon. However, simulation of MARS systems on traditional existing software takes very long time (order of days) due to the presence of a large number of states and non-linear devices. Therefore, development of fast high fidelity models is of paramount importance to test the hardware design, control design and planning of power system expansions. In this context, two research objectives are addressed in this paper: firstly, an ultra fast single- or multi- CPU simulation algorithm to simulate the MARS system based on state-space models, hybrid discretization algorithm with a relaxation technique that reduces the imposed computational burden and a multi-rate method is presented. Secondly, a reduced order model of MARS is also presented. Both the developed techniques are validated with respect to reference PSCAD/EMTDC model.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

DOE OSTI2020

Capabilities of multivariate Bayesian inference toward seismic hazard assessment

Multivariate Bayesian analysis can bring significant benefits to seismic hazard analysis: Its multivariate feature enables computing scalar and vector hazard without making any approximations; Correlations between intensity measures are implicitly modeled, permitting direct simulation of ground motion selection tools such as the conditional mean spectrum and the generalized conditioning intensity measure; and Its updating feature enables a seamless integration of new ground motion data into the hazard results. Here, we first develop a multivariate Bayesian ground motion model through the NGA-West2 database. The model functional form considers fault-type, magnitude, and distance dependencies, and also the linear and the rock intensity dependent site response. We use a hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to perform Bayesian inference consisting of Gibbs step and a multilevel Metropolis-Hastings step. We then perform several checks on the model and note that its performance is satisfactory. Finally, we illustrate the merits of this multivariate Bayesian analysis, which include: ground motion model updating with ground motion data recorded in the last four years not part of the NGA-West2 database; computation of scalar and vector seismic hazard using the un-updated and updated ground motion models for Los Angeles, CA; and simulation of the conditional mean spectrum under scalar and vector IM conditioning while accounting for different sources of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multilevel Conditional Disturbance Rejection Control for Satellite Attitude Tracking

Recently, the conditional disturbance rejection controller (CDRC) was proposed to improve control performance by leveraging disturbances that have beneficial effects on the system. However, it only considers disturbances acting on the state variable directly influenced by them. Although fast convergence of this state can be achieved with the CDRC, it may unintentionally affect the convergence of the output (i.e., the primary state). Here, in this article, a multilevel CDRC is proposed to enhance satellite attitude control performance by accounting for the effect of disturbances on both attitude (output) and angular velocity. The extended state observer is employed to estimate the lumped disturbance, including the modeling errors and external disturbances. Then, a backstepping-based controller with the multilevel disturbance rejection law (ML-DRL) is designed for attitude tracking. The ML-DRL is developed to improve the control performance by using a disturbance with a damping effect on both attitude and velocity. Faster convergence of attitude and velocity can be achieved by conditionally compensating for the disturbance. The stability of the proposed control method is analyzed by demonstrating that the errors are bounded as time tends to infinity. The attitude control performance of the proposed method is evaluated through numerical examples conducted using the MATLAB/Simulink Multibody tool.

Active disturbance rejection control (ADRC)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Engineering infinite-range SU($\textit{n}$) interactions with spin-orbit-coupled fermions in an optical lattice

Here, we study multilevel fermions in an optical lattice described by the Hubbard model with on-site SU($\textit{n}$) -symmetric interactions. We show that in an appropriate parameter regime this system can be mapped onto a spin model with all-to-all SU($\textit{n}$)-symmetric couplings. Raman pulses that address internal spin states modify the atomic dispersion relation and induce spin-orbit coupling, which can act as a synthetic inhomogeneous magnetic field that competes with the SU($\textit{n}$) exchange interactions. We investigate the mean-field dynamical phase diagram of the resulting model as a function of $\textit{n}$ and different initial configurations that are accessible with Raman pulses. Consistent with previous studies for $\textit{n}$ = 2 , we find that for some initial states the spin model exhibits two distinct dynamical phases that obey simple scaling relations with $\textit{n}$. Moreover, for $\textit{n}$ > 2 we find that dynamical behavior can be highly sensitive to initial intraspin coherences. Our predictions are readily testable in current experiments with ultracold alkaline-earth-metal(-like) atoms.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stacked Low-Inertia Converter or Solid-State Transformer: Modeling and Model Predictive Priority-Shifting Control for Voltage Balance

This paper presents control challenges of stacked low-inertia converter (SLIC) or cascaded reduced dc-link solid-state transformer (SST) and proposes a novel model predictive priority-shifting (MPPS) control with implicit modulator and a discrete-time large-signal model for voltage balancing and dc-link regulation. Low-inertia converters, featuring small electrolytic capacitor-less dc links, dramatically reduce cost, size, and weight compared to conventional solutions. However, without a large dc-link buffer, the input and output are tightly coupled, leading to significant control challenges. The control becomes even more challenging with these converters stacked input-series output-parallel (ISOP) for medium-voltage (MV) grid, which causes coupling between the modules besides the coupling within each module. This paper analyzes the multi-objective, multi-degree of freedom control problem, using the modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) as an example of the SLIC. First, distribution of control efforts under controller saturation is critical because multiple control objectives can be conflicting, especially when the module voltages are unbalanced and are being restored. The MPPS can shift the priorities to address this issue. Second, due to the low inertia and high dc-link ripple, classic space vector pulse-width modulation (SVPWM), average model with small-ripple assumption, and control design based on small-signal model cannot accurately modulate, model, and control the nonlinear reduced dc link. Therefore, a discrete-time large-signal model of the M-S4T is established to derive the predictive control in the MPPS. The MPPS and the PI control are compared in MV simulations to show the issue of applying the PI to the SLIC and the effectiveness of the MPPS for voltage balancing and dc-link regulation in a deadbeat manner. Finally, the proposed control is tested on a 5 kV ISOP SiC SST prototype to verify priority shifting to address controller saturation issue and fast and robust voltage balancing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generalized Power Flow Model of an Extra High-Power Multi-Terminal HVdc Transmission Grid with Parallel-Connected and Voltage-Stacked Converters

To increase power transfer capacity of high-voltage direct current (HVdc) transmission, a new extra high-power HVdc architecture with multiple standard modular multilevel converters (MMCs) per substation has recently been introduced. This paper proposes a power flow model for a multi-terminal HVdc (MTdc) grid with this innovative substation architecture. The proposed MTdc model can be integrated seamlessly with existing ac-dc power flow algorithms with minimal modifications. The model is applicable to various MTdc grid types and topologies, different numbers of dc buses, dc lines, and MMCs per substation, along with diverse control parameters. In addition, it accurately captures both balanced and unbalanced operations of the MTdc grid. The proposed model is verified using a 5-terminal bipole MTdc grid that spans 4 areas in the Eastern Interconnection system of the USA. The numerical solutions obtained from unified and sequential ac-dc power flow algorithms under different operating conditions closely match the time-domain simulation results in PSCAD, validating the accuracy and versatility of the proposed MTdc power flow model.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

DC-Link Capacitor Design for a Neutral-Point-Less Three-Level Dual-Phase Inverter for Traction Application

Conventional multilevel inverters, such as neutralpoint-clamped and T-type inverters, have gained popularity in electric vehicle applications due to their advantages, including high voltage range, high power capability, low switching losses, low total harmonic distortion, and low electromagnetic interference. However, these traditional multilevel inverters require a neutral point connection to generate a zero-voltage vector. The neutral point current oscillates at three times the fundamental frequency, leading to voltage imbalance and overvoltage stress on the power modules. Additionally, the use of two stacked DC-link capacitors increases the volume required for the same overall capacitance and complicates packaging due to ripple current and heat dissipation from separate components. This is a significant concern for traction drive units, where space is limited. In this paper, a neutral-point-less multilevel dual threephase inverter topology is investigated for traction inverter applications. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed topology effectively retains the benefits of multilevel operation while utilizing a single DC-link capacitor. The inverter model was simulated in conjunction with an industry-standard battery model to evaluate the potential for capacitor size reduction compared to a conventional three-level inverter.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel Monte Carlo Estimators For Derivative-Free Optimization Under Uncertainty

Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications; however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest. Optimization under uncertainty (OUU) deals with this endeavor and requires uncertainty quantification analyses at several design locations; i.e., its overall computational cost is proportional to the cost of performing a forward uncertainty analysis at each design location. An OUU workflow has two main components: an inner loop strategy for the computation of statistics of the quantity of interest, and an outer loop optimization strategy tasked with finding the optimal design, given a merit function based on the inner loop statistics. Here, in this work, we propose to alleviate the cost of the inner loop uncertainty analysis by leveraging the so-called multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method, which is able to allocate resources over multiple models with varying accuracy and cost. The resource allocation problem in MLMC is formulated by minimizing the computational cost given a target variance for the estimator. We consider MLMC estimators for statistics usually employed in OUU workflows and solve the corresponding allocation problem. For the outer loop, we consider a derivative-free optimization strategy implemented in the SNOWPAC library; our novel strategy is implemented and released in the Dakota software toolkit. We discuss several numerical test cases to showcase the features and performance of our approach with respect to its Monte Carlo single fidelity counterpart.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel Monte Carlo methods for the Grad-Shafranov free boundary problem

The equilibrium configuration of a plasma in an axially symmetric reactor is described mathematically by a free boundary problem associated with the celebrated Grad-Shafranov equation. The presence of uncertainty in the model parameters introduces the need to quantify the variability in the predictions. This is often done by computing a large number of model solutions on a computational grid for an ensemble of parameter values and then obtaining estimates for the statistical properties of solutions. In this study, we explore the savings that can be obtained using multilevel Monte Carlo methods, which reduce costs by performing the bulk of the computations on a sequence of spatial grids that are coarser than the one that would typically be used for a simple Monte Carlo simulation. We examine this approach using both a set of uniformly refined grids and a set of adaptively refined grids guided by a discrete error estimator. Numerical experiments show that multilevel methods dramatically reduce the cost of simulation, with cost reductions typically on the order of 60 or more and possibly as large as 200. Furthermore, adaptive griding results in more accurate computation of geometric quantities such as x-points associated with the model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised Clustering of Microseismic Events and Focal Mechanism Analysis at the CO 2 Injection Site in Decatur, Illinois

Characterization of induced microseismicity at a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage site is critical for preserving reservoir integrity and mitigating seismic hazards. We apply a multilevel machine learning (ML) approach that combines the nonnegative matrix factorization and hidden Markov model to extract spectral representations of microseismic events and cluster them to identify seismic patterns at the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project. Unlike traditional waveform correlation methods, this approach leverages spectral characteristics of first arrivals to improve event classification and detect previously undetected planes of weakness. By integrating ML-based clustering with focal mechanism analysis, we resolve small-scale fault structures that are below the detection limits of conventional seismic imaging. Our findings reveal temporal bursts of microseismicity associated with brittle failure, providing insights into the spatio-temporal evolution of fault reactivation during CO 2 injection. This approach enhances seismic monitoring capabilities at CO 2 injection sites by improving fault characterization beyond the resolution of standard geophysical surveys.

Willis, Rachel Marie [Sandia National Laboratories↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel analysis between Physcomitrium patens and Mortierellaceae endophytes explores potential long‐standing interaction among land plants and fungi

SUMMARY The model moss species Physcomitrium patens has long been used for studying divergence of land plants spanning from bryophytes to angiosperms. In addition to its phylogenetic relationships, the limited number of differential tissues, and comparable morphology to the earliest embryophytes provide a system to represent basic plant architecture. Based on plant–fungal interactions today, it is hypothesized these kingdoms have a long‐standing relationship, predating plant terrestrialization. Mortierellaceae have origins diverging from other land fungi paralleling bryophyte divergence, are related to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi but are free‐living, observed to interact with plants, and can be found in moss microbiomes globally. Due to their parallel origins, we assess here how two Mortierellaceae species, Linnemannia elongata and Benniella erionia , interact with P. patens in coculture. We also assess how Mollicute ‐related or Burkholderia ‐related endobacterial symbionts (MRE or BRE) of these fungi impact plant response. Coculture interactions are investigated through high‐throughput phenomics, microscopy, RNA‐sequencing, differential expression profiling, gene ontology enrichment, and comparisons among 99 other P. patens transcriptomic studies. Here we present new high‐throughput approaches for measuring P. patens growth, identify novel expression of over 800 genes that are not expressed on traditional agar media, identify subtle interactions between P. patens and Mortierellaceae, and observe changes to plant–fungal interactions dependent on whether MRE or BRE are present. Our study provides insights into how plants and fungal partners may have interacted based on their communications observed today as well as identifying L. elongata and B. erionia as modern fungal endophytes with P. patens .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon neutrality in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur: Insights from stakeholder-driven integrated assessment modeling

Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors. In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs. We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.

cities↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Multiscale Modeling for Sustainable Biopolymers and Bioinspired Materials

Abstract Biopolymers and bioinspired materials contribute to the construction of intricate hierarchical structures that exhibit advanced properties. The remarkable toughness and damage tolerance of such multilevel materials are conferred through the hierarchical assembly of their multiscale (i.e., atomistic to macroscale) components and architectures. Here, the functionality and mechanisms of biopolymers and bio‐inspired materials at multilength scales are explored and summarized, focusing on biopolymer nanofibril configurations, biocompatible synthetic biopolymers, and bio‐inspired composites. Their modeling methods with theoretical basis at multiple lengths and time scales are reviewed for biopolymer applications. Additionally, the exploration of artificial intelligence‐powered methodologies is emphasized to realize improvements in these biopolymers from functionality, biodegradability, and sustainability to their characterization, fabrication process, and superior designs. Ultimately, a promising future for these versatile materials in the manufacturing of advanced materials across wider applications and greater lifecycle impacts is foreseen.

Wang, Xing Quan [Department of Mechanical Engineer↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing Asynchronous Multi-Level Checkpoint/Restart Configurations with Machine Learning

With the emergence of versatile storage systems, multi-level checkpointing (MLC) has become a common approach to gain efficiency. However, multi-level checkpoint/restart can cause enormous I/O traffic on HPC systems. To use multilevel checkpointing efficiently, it is important to optimize check-point/restart configurations. Current approaches, namely modeling and simulation, are either inaccurate or slow in determining the optimal configuration for a large scale system. In this paper, we show that machine learning models can be used in combination with accurate simulation to determine the optimal checkpoint configurations. We also demonstrate that more advanced techniques such as neural networks can further improve the performance in optimizing checkpoint configurations.

checkpoint-restart↗