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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Commercialization of a Nanosegrated Oxygen Evolution Reaction Electrocatalyst (CRADA)

This collaborative project leverages advanced characterization tools, catalyst treatment and electrochemical testing capabilities at LBNL to help commercialize a bimetallic nanosegrated catalysts for oxygen evolution reaction in proton-exchange membrane water electrolyzers. This project also has three industrial partners who are involved in catalyst scale-up synthesis, large electrode fabrication and large electrode electrochemical testing. This project investigates a broad range of topics including electrocatalysis, ink rheology and electrode fabrication and testing. This knowledge could help bridge the performance and durability gap from laboratory-developed materials (such as electrocatalysts) to applications in commercial devices. The research results also bring fundamental understanding of possible degradation mechanisms that occur under extremely oxidative potentials including material and morphological changes. The project will help accelerate the deployment of proton-exchange membrane water electrolyzers. The public benefits could include creating jobs and increasing public awareness of potential clean technologies for green hydrogen production. Ultimately, the project will help national wide effort of flighting climate change and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of mixed grain size sediment input on braided river Morphodynamics: Insights from experimental and numerical modeling

The rate of sediment supply has significant impacts on river morphology, making it crucial to understand the geomorphic changes and grain size distribution dynamics in rivers. However, the effects of varying grain size sediment input on morphological changes in braided channels remain poorly understood. This study is the first to investigate the bar development and sediment sorting processes in braided channels with non-uniform sediment inputs using both numerical and experimental approaches. We applied a two-dimensional numerical model, Nays2DH to confirm and generalize experimental results. The model reproduced key experiment results, including 1) stream elevation changes, and 2) grain size distribution. Using this validated model, we explored the morphological changes and sorting process in a braided river with sediment inputs. The numerical experiments demonstrate that sediment input controls the elevation of the stream bed and the grain size distribution. Notably, both the elevation and grain-size distribution become relatively stable in downstream of the channel. Additionally, the simulation results suggest that an increased sediment supply leads to greater channel complexity, with bed surface armoring decreasing.

Nays2DH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Redistribution of Ru in Fe 2 O 3 –Ru Nanocatalysts through an Oxidative Pretreatment Improves Reverse Water–Gas Shift Activity

We have synthesized Fe–Ru nanoparticles via a solvothermal method to create catalysts for the reverse water–gas shift reaction and demonstrated the impact of reductive and oxidative pretreatments on both catalytic performance and structure. Catalytic testing showed improved activity after exposure to O 2 at 600 °C. In contrast, the activity became lower if then exposed to H 2 at 600 °C. Environmental scanning transmission electron microscopy and scanning electron microscopy showed that exposure to O 2 at 600 °C changes the morphology and completely oxidizes Fe into Fe 2 O 3 . Exposure to H 2 at elevated temperature caused Ru coalescence at the surface of the nanoparticle, forming clusters which decreased the optimization of Ru. Reoxidation of the particles exposed to H 2 , however, caused a redistribution of Ru that appears beneficial in maximizing Ru exposure and synergy with Fe oxide, with no major changes in the morphology and oxide structure. Furthermore, our diagnostics demonstrate the complex and reversible rearrangements possible in these multicomponent particles and the benefits of oxidative pretreatment to enhance or regenerate Fe–Ru catalysts in other important catalytic reactions such as Fischer–Tropsch synthesis.

Fe−Ru nanoparticles↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dramatic changes in mitochondrial subcellular location and morphology accompany activation of the CO 2 concentrating mechanism

Dynamic changes in intracellular ultrastructure can be critical for the ability of organisms to acclimate to environmental conditions. Microalgae, which are responsible for ~50% of global photosynthesis, compartmentalize their Ribulose 1,5 Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase (Rubisco) into a specialized structure known as the pyrenoid when the cells experience limiting CO 2 conditions; this compartmentalization is a component of the CO 2 Concentrating Mechanism (CCM), which facilitates photosynthetic CO 2 fixation as environmental levels of inorganic carbon (Ci) decline. Changes in the spatial distribution of mitochondria in green algae have also been observed under CO 2 limitation, although a role for this reorganization in CCM function remains unclear. We used the green microalga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii to monitor changes in mitochondrial position and ultrastructure as cells transition between high CO 2 and Low/Very Low CO 2 (LC/VLC). Upon transferring cells to VLC, the mitochondria move from a central to a peripheral cell location and orient in parallel tubular arrays that extend along the cell’s apico-basal axis. We show that these ultrastructural changes correlate with CCM induction and are regulated by the CCM master regulator CIA5. The apico-basal orientation of the mitochondrial membranes, but not the movement of the mitochondrion to the cell periphery, is dependent on microtubules and the MIRO1 protein, with the latter involved in membrane–microtubule interactions. Furthermore, blocking mitochondrial respiration in VLC-acclimated cells reduces the affinity of the cells for Ci. Overall, our results suggest that mitochondrial repositioning functions in integrating cellular architecture and energetics with CCM activities and invite further exploration of how intracellular architecture can impact fitness under dynamic environmental conditions.

CO2 concentrating mechanism↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Electronic Stress-Induced Changes in Multilayer MoS 2

Transition metal dichalcogenides like molybdenum disulfide (MoS 2 ) are compelling for next-generation electronic devices. In this work, we investigate the impact of electronic stress on MoS 2 to illustrate that observational and phenomenological information on multiple devices can be useful to describe changes in the device, and caution against the rationalization of paltry results as representative or correlative to device behavior. Here, we stress MoS 2 by applying a sustained 20 V DC bias to study the material’s response. Post-stress electronic characterization revealed nonuniform shifts in current–voltage (I–V) behavior alongside microscale changes. Complementary mechanical, spectroscopic, and scanning microwave impedance measurements showed that stress-induced features locally modulate stiffness, surface potential, Raman intensity, and charge carrier density. We correlated I–V behavior with morphological features (wrinkles, tears, folds, height) and device-level geometry (MoS 2 overlap with electrodes, channel area, contact length) on 50 test structures across five chips to move beyond anecdotal conclusions. We found no universal correlations before DC stress. However, device-level geometry was correlated with I–V behavior after DC stress, suggesting that electrode contacts play a more dominant role than morphology in determining performance. Delamination and thinning induced by DC stress led to localized reductions in charge carrier density within the affected regions. Further, delamination and thinning appear to map to I–V device performance in a few samples, but the correlation is lost when a larger sample size is considered. This suggests significant sample-to-sample variability in surface electronic states of the test structures. We also discuss how environmental factors introduced during fabrication may contribute to the observed heterogeneous device response. Progress will require high-resolution, multimodal analysis across many samples constructed under controlled, clean conditions. By building data sets that capture variability, we can better identify the true drivers of performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of Oxidation Mechanisms in HfS 2 and ZrS 2 via In Situ Electron Microscopy

Transition metal dichalcogenides (TMD) combine semiconducting properties with stability and are therefore widely studied for future microelectronic devices. However, applications require integration with a suitable dielectric at a planar, defect-free interface. For Hf- and Zr-based TMDs, the good dielectric properties of hafnia and zirconia imply that direct oxidation is a promising strategy, provided that a high-quality interface and suitable oxide morphology can be formed. Here, in this study, we investigate HfS 2 and ZrS 2 oxidation, aiming to understand pathways toward planar oxide layer formation and the mechanisms that determine the characteristics of the semiconductor/dielectric interface. We use conventional and environmental transmission electron microscopy to reveal changes in morphology and composition of the TMDs under different gaseous environments. We show that oxidation at ambient conditions causes compositional heterogeneities, with local replacement of S by O in both materials. Thermal oxidation causes desulfurization and formation of a smooth but defective oxide layer. In contrast, plasma oxidation appears the best-suited to forming a controlled TMD/dielectric interface with a smooth oxide layer and without major defects. These results provide insight into the opportunities available from HfS 2 and ZrS 2 through oxidation and suggest a materials processing strategy for electronic device fabrication.

HfS2↗
DOE OSTI2025

In Situ 4D‐STEM Imaging of the Orientation of Lamellar Clusters in Polymer Crystallization

In semi‐crystalline polymeric materials, the initial stages of nucleation and the growth path of crystalline domains can determine the final performance. Here, in this work, we used four‐dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D‐STEM) imaging to analyze the changes in lamellar orientation in high‐density polyethylene (HDPE) during heating and cooling. This method allowed us to quantitatively detect the formation of lamellae clusters with different in‐plane orientations, which are not visible with traditional methods. Our analysis provided detailed insights into the orientation and size changes of crystalline domains. Additionally, this technique enabled direct observation of lattice structures in hierarchical lamellae and the growth of crystals, confirming the local variability in lamellar orientation. This innovative approach significantly improves our understanding of polymer crystallization, linking changes in morphology and lattice structures at different length scales.

4D-STEM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic Biology of Plants and Microbes for Agriculture, Environment, and Future Applications

Agriculture is under pressure to provide food for a growing population and the feedstock required to drive the bioeconomy. Methods to breed and genetically modify plants are inadequate to keep pace. When engineering crops, traits are painstakingly introduced into plants one-at-a-time, combine unpredictably, and are continuously expressed. Synthetic biology is changing these paradigms with new genome construction tools, computer aided design (CAD), and artificial intelligence (AI). “Smart plants” contain circuits that respond to environmental change, alter morphology, or respond to threats. Further, the plant and associated microbes (fungi, bacteria, archaea) are now being viewed by genetic engineers as a holistic system. Historically, plant health has been enhanced by many natural and laboratory-evolved soil microbes marketed to enhance growth, provide nutrients, or confer pest/stress resistance. Synthetic biology has expanded the number of species that can be engineered, increased the complexity of engineered functions, controlled environmental release, and assembled stable consortia. New CAD tools will manage genetic engineering projects spanning multiple plant genomes (nucleus, chloroplast, mitochondrion) and the thousands of genomes of associated bacteria/fungi. Here, this review covers advanced genetic engineering techniques to drive the next agricultural revolution, as well as push plant engineering into new realms for manufacturing, infrastructure, sensing, and remediation.

Clauer, Phillip [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revealing the Crystalline Architecture of Semicrystalline Ion Exchange Membranes for the Design of Conductive and Durable Alkaline Anion Exchange Membranes

Alkaline anion exchange membrane (AAEM) fuel cells offer a cost-effective alternative to proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells by eliminating the need for expensive precious metal catalysts. In both PEMs and AAEMs, semicrystalline polymers are a common choice, as the crystalline domains can act as mechanical reinforcements that limit swelling and promote mechanical durability in the material. However, spatially resolved characterization of crystalline organization in ion exchange membranes beyond ensemble-averaged X-ray scattering is underrepresented, likely in part due to ionization damage limitations in soft materials. Here, in this study, we resolve the nanometer-size crystallites in semicrystalline ion exchange membranes by applying cryogenic four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (cryo-4D-STEM) along with data-processing algorithms designed to optimize signals at a low dose to minimize radiation damage. We investigate the effects of synthesis components, including molecular weight and thermal treatment, on a model system of AAEMs in comparison to Nafion, the most commonly used and commercially successful PEM today. We find that excess water uptake in polymer membranes, a property directly associated with weak mechanical durability and with possible negative impacts on ion conductivity, can be reduced by over 30% by varying the polymer's crystalline morphology through changes in synthesis parameters such as molecular weight and thermal history. Our results indicate that this improvement is correlated with smaller crystalline domains with a more homogeneous distribution. More broadly, these results demonstrate how the crystalline architecture of polymer membranes can be tuned through their chemistry and thermal treatment in order to improve their conductivity and durability for commercial fuel cell performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active Fluids Form System-Spanning Filamentary Networks

Recent experimental realizations of liquid-liquid phase separation of active liquid crystals have offered an insight into the interaction between phase separation, ubiquitous in soft matter and biology, and chaotic active flows. Here, in this Letter, we use continuum theory to examine phase separation of an active liquid crystal and a passive fluid and report two new results. First, we provide an analytical derivation of the activity-induced suppression of the phase boundary of the coexistence region—a result first reported in simulations and experiments. We show that the shift in the critical point is a result of the balance between self-stirring active flows and phase-separating diffusive fluxes. Second, we show that this same balance is responsible for dramatically changing the morphology of the phase separated state, resulting in the emergence of a new mixed active phase consisting of a dynamical filamentous active network that invades the entire system area, trapping droplets of passive material. This structure exists even for very low volume fractions of active material. Our work provides an important step towards the goal of understanding how to use activity as a new handle for sculpting interfaces.

active nematics↗
DOE OSTI2026

RU Net for Automatic Characterization of TRISO Fuel Cross Sections

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel is a type of nuclear fuel known for its high-temperature and high-burnup performance. Each sub-millimeter diameter TRISO particle consists of uranium-oxycarbide (UCO) or UO2 fuel kernel, coated with buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC), silicon carbide (SiC), and outer pyrolytic carbon (OPyC) layers. The SiC layer acts as the main containment barrier for the TRISO particle to retain the fission products, while the IPyC and OPyC layers provide additional barriers to the release of fission products, especially fission gases. During irradiation, phenomena like kernel swelling, buffer densification, and IPyC fracture may impact fuel performance. Post-irradiation microscopy on entire compact cross sections or samples of individual particles deconsolidated from compacts is often used to identify these irradiation-induced changes in morphology. However, each fuel compact generally contains thousands of TRISO particles. To get statistical information on these phenomena, it is cumbersome work if done manually. For example, to get information about swelling/densification behaviors of different layers or kernels after irradiation, researchers previously manually measured the perimeter of each TRISO layer in hundreds of particles after four rounds of iterative grinding and polishing encompassing more than 2000 cross-section images for a total of four fuel compacts. To attempt to reduce the subjectivity inherent in that process and accelerate data analysis, we conducted a study on the automatic TRISO layer segmentation on cross-sectional microscopic images using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). CNNs are a class of machine learning algorithms specifically designed for processing structured grid data that have gained popularity in recent years due to their remarkable performance in various computer vision tasks, including image classification, object detection, and image segmentation. In this research, we have generated the large irradiated TRISO layer dataset with more than 2000 cross-section TRISO microscopic images and the corresponding annotated images. Based on these annotated images, we have employed different CNNs for automatic segmentation of different TRISO layers. These include RU-Net (developed in this study), as well as three existing architectures: U-Net, Residual Network (ResNet), and Attention U-Net. The preliminary results show that the model based on RU-Net has the best performance in terms of intersection-over-union (IoU). Through the aid of these CNN models, we can expedite the analysis of TRISO particle cross-sections, significantly reducing the manual labor involved and improving the objectivity of the segmentation results.

Convolutional Neural Networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

Buffer-IPyC separation process in TRISO fuel particles simulated with Bison code

During High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) operation, tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated-particle fuel undergoes irradiation-induced changes in morphology and thermomechanical properties. Experimental results from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program show, among other things, the mechanism of gap formation between the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) layers, which could be explored further via computational simulations using the Bison code. Two simulation models were developed, the debonding restricted model, where no gap formation between buffer and IPyC layers is permitted, and the debonding enabled model, where the gap between those layers is created. The inputs of the simulated models are based on the irradiation conditions from the AGR-1 experiment. The research included simulations on spherical and aspherical fuel types. Under the specific temperatures and fluences of the AGR-1 irradiation experiment, and the Bison simulations, it was concluded that the most common scenario is a gap formation along the buffer-IPyC interface, while the least possible scenario is the situation where there is no gap formation at the buffer-IPyC junction. The computational results confirmed that the sphericity of the fuel influences the thickness of the gap that occurs at the buffer-IPyC junction, in a way that with increasing aspect ratio the gap thickness increases. The results obtained for spherical and aspherical fuel are nearly identical. Finally, performed simulations match conclusions observed from the AGR-1 experiment, which as such shows that the Bison code is a good computational method for simulating the TRISO fuel. Future simulations will include the validation of performed research and comparison of the results between Bison and PARFUME codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Shapeshifting Nanocatalyst for CO2 Conversion

The conversion of CO2 into high-value chemicals through a photoreduction reaction in water is a promising route to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. Enhancing selectivity toward hydrocarbons or alcohols can be achieved by Ag-Cu alloys. However, the stabilized surface state created by Ag-Cu interactions is still poorly understood. In this work, multi-modal in situ X-ray experiments reveals underlying mechanisms and the evolution of Ag-Cu nanoparticles under CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR) conditions. Both morphological and chemical changes of Ag and Cu species induced by diffusion mechanics are tracked during nanocatalyst operation. The initial spheroid Ag-Cu nanoparticles are composed of a Cu-rich shell and Ag-rich core. The reduction treatment promotes Ag migration toward the surface. During photocatalytic CO2 reduction reaction, Cu atoms migrate back to the surface, forming Ag-Cu-O species. The study observes the surface oxidation of Cu(0) to Cu+ and the presence of Ag at the sub-surface region. Furthermore, nanoparticles change their shape, decreasing their specific surface area, driven by Cu diffusion during the CO2 photoreduction reaction. The results provide invaluable insights into the dynamic restructuring of the catalyst under reaction conditions and into the active species responsible for CO2 conversion.

CO2 reduction reaction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sediment transport and morphodynamic changes due to upstream variation and sea level rise on the Western Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The hydrological and morphological dynamics across the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) coastline are increasingly shaped by human interventions and climate change, affecting the sustainability of socio-economic environments. This study employs the TELEMAC-MASCARET modeling system (TELEMAC-2D, TOMAWAC, and SISYPHE modules) to simulate hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological changes for a 10-year period under baseline (SC1) and future climate (SC2) scenarios, considering wave climatology of Northeast (NEM) and Southwest monsoons (SWM). The results of sedimentation and erosion were analyzed across five key coastal zones from Ca Mau Cape (KV1) to Ha Tien (KV5). Model results highlight distinct seasonal patterns of sediment redistribution shaped by monsoonal flows, wave action, and seabed morphology. During the NEM, sediment deposition is concentrated near estuarine zones, while the SWM favors offshore sediment accumulation due to perpendicular wave actions, and shallow, gently sloping bathymetry that dissipates wave energy. Coastal erosion predominantly occurs at convex shoreline features subjected to stronger coastal currents, particularly in fine-grained sediment areas. Under future sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios, reduced flow velocities lead to lower bottom shear stress, promoting deposition and mitigating erosion problems despite increased wave energy. Besides that, sediment transport analyses across 14 cross-sections (C-S) reveal a southward trend during the NEM and a northward reversal during the SWM, with upstream sediment reductions primarily influencing near-estuarine zones and exerting minimal impact beyond the mid-coastal regions. Furthermore, these findings advance the understanding of sediment redistribution processes under climate change and seasonal change, and provide a scientific basis for adaptive coastal management and sustainable development.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Initial Laboratory Measurements Probing Hydrogen Interactions with Eagle Ford Shale and Pyrite: Potential Implications for Subsurface Hydrogen Storage

Hydrogen (H 2 ) has the potential to be a transformative technology as an enabler to a low-carbon future and promoter of renewable energy. When H 2 is injected and stored in the subsurface, it has the potential to interact with the caprock (usually shale) which overlies and seals the storage reservoir. Here, this study examines geochemical reactions or changes in surface morphology to Eagle Ford Shale, a proxy for caprock, upon exposure to H 2 at 50°C and 10.3 MPa. Reactions were also performed with N 2 to provide an experimental control. Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), and Optical Photothermal-Infrared (O-PTIR) Spectroscopy were applied to quantify changes on the microscale and nanoscale level. Fluid chemistry changes were monitored with Ion Chromatography (IC) and Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Exposure of Eagle Ford Shale to H 2 gas alone did not result in any alterations to the shale chemically or any changes in the surface morphology. Exposure of Eagle Ford Shale to both H 2 and water as well as N 2 and water resulted in changes to the surface morphology because of gypsum dissolution and reprecipitation, thus indicating that H 2 is not necessary to promote changes. Pure pyrite was the most reactive with H 2 possibly resulting in a reduction to pyrrhotite. These initial studies suggest that the extent of reactions activated by hydrogen with caprock are minor under the temperature and pressure conditions that would represent underground hydrogen storage.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of thermally heat-treated polyacrylonitrile carbon fibers

This study investigates the graphitization process of polyacrylonitrile (PAN) carbon fibers by subjecting commercial fibers to thermal heat treatment at temperatures ranging from 1400 to 2100 °C in 100 °C increments, using either argon or nitrogen gas atmospheres. Changes in crystallinity, surface morphology, and lattice parameters were analyzed for two commercial carbon fibers using X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and Raman spectroscopy. Results indicated minimal changes in surface morphology with increasing heat-treatment temperature; however, crystallinity significantly increased. Crystallinity changes were more strongly dependent on temperature rather than gas atmosphere or fiber type. At intermediate heat-treatment temperatures (1600–1800 °C), fibers treated in argon showed a slight preference for graphitization. The highest level of graphitization was measured at 2100 °C. Crystallite size increased as the intensity ratio of the D1 to G Raman peaks increased, reaching a peak around ~1800 °C, after which the ratio started to decrease. This behavior aligns with Ferrari's three-stage model of carbon crystallization and is consistent with both the Marie-Mering degree of graphitization and Brubaker's Integrated Absolute Differential models, all of which describe the transformation from an amorphous to a more graphitic structure. At the higher heat-treatment temperatures, the changes between atmospheres and fiber types were measured to converge to similar levels of graphitization. In conclusion, this study evaluates the progressive change in commercial grade carbon fibers when heat-treated.

Characterization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carboxylic acid induced restructuring of the Fe 3 O 4 (001) surface

The redox properties of Fe 3 O 4 surfaces are central to many catalytic processes and enable dynamic, reduction-induced morphological restructuring during reactions. Here, we investigate the structural changes of the Fe 3 O 4 (001) surface during the decomposition of formic and acetic acids using scanning tunneling microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Both acids readily deprotonate, forming ordered carboxylate overlayers on the surface. Product formation pathways involve the removal of lattice oxygen, resulting in extensive surface restructuring. For formic acid, only a modest level of surface oxygen removal (∼3%) is observed, resulting in elongated pits along the octahedral Fe rows and exhibiting an aspect ratio of ∼3. In contrast, acetic acid induces more extensive reduction, with the removal of ∼20% of surface oxygen, yielding significantly larger pits while maintaining a similar aspect ratio. Repeated exposure to acetic acid further enlarges the pits, indicating preferential etching at step edges. DFT calculations reveal a mechanistic sequence in which lattice oxygen removal destabilizes adjacent Fe atoms, promoting their migration into the bulk and subsequent pit propagation and step edge formation. Together, these findings provide atomistic insights into the coupling between carboxylic acid conversion and oxide surface restructuring, underscoring the strong interplay between redox chemistry and morphological changes on catalytically active Fe 3 O 4 surfaces.

Ortiz-Garcia, José J. [Pacific Northwest National ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling

The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗