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At least 73 records · Page 4

Methodolgy For Evaluation Of Technology Impacts In Space Electric Power Systems

The Analysis and Management branch of the Power and Propulsion Office at NASA Glenn Research Center is responsible for performing complex analyses of the space power and In-Space propulsion products developed by GRC. This work quantifies the benefits of the advanced technologies to support on-going advocacy efforts. The Power and Propulsion Office is committed to understanding how the advancement in space technologies could benefit future NASA missions. They support many diverse projects and missions throughout NASA as well as industry and academia. The area of work that we are concentrating on is space technology investment strategies. Our goal is to develop a Monte-Carlo based tool to investigate technology impacts in space electric power systems. The framework is being developed at this stage, which will be used to set up a computer simulation of a space electric power system (EPS). The outcome is expected to be a probabilistic assessment of critical technologies and potential development issues. We are developing methods for integrating existing spreadsheet-based tools into the simulation tool. Also, work is being done on defining interface protocols to enable rapid integration of future tools. Monte Carlo-based simulation programs for statistical modeling of the EPS Model. I decided to learn and evaluate Palisade's @Risk and Risk Optimizer software, and utilize it's capabilities for the Electric Power System (EPS) model. I also looked at similar software packages (JMP, SPSS, Crystal Ball, VenSim, Analytica) available from other suppliers and evaluated them. The second task was to develop the framework for the tool, in which we had to define technology characteristics using weighing factors and probability distributions. Also we had to define the simulation space and add hard and soft constraints to the model. The third task is to incorporate (preliminary) cost factors into the model. A final task is developing a cross-platform solution of this framework.

Holda, Julie↗

Space Radiation Cancer Risk Projections for Exploration Missions: Uncertainty Reduction and Mitigation

In this paper we discuss expected lifetime excess cancer risks for astronauts returning from exploration class missions. For the first time we make a quantitative assessment of uncertainties in cancer risk projections for space radiation exposures. Late effects from the high charge and energy (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays including cancer and the poorly understood risks to the central nervous system constitute the major risks. Methods used to project risk in low Earth orbit are seen as highly uncertain for projecting risks on exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating HZE ion risks. Cancer risk projections are described as a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions represents the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify risk projection overall uncertainty. Cancer risk analysis is applied to several exploration mission scenarios. At solar minimum, the number of days in space where career risk of less than the limiting 3% excess cancer mortality can be assured at a 95% confidence level is found to be only of the order of 100 days.

Cucinotta, Francis↗

Double-real corrections to color singlet decay in a parton-shower inspired scheme

We introduce a local infrared subtraction method for next-to-next-to-leading order QCD calculations in color singlet decays, with counterterms based on scalar radiators and pure splitting functions. Overlapping singularities in the multipole radiation pattern are disentangled by partial fractioning, and the kinematics mapping corresponds to iterated next-to-leading order kinematics. We verify that the double-real remainder to $e^+e^-\to\;q\bar{q}$ is rendered finite in the single and double unresolved limits and investigate the numerical convergence of the Monte-Carlo integral. We compute the phase-space integrals of the scalar counterterms in the back-to-back configuration, both analytically and with the help of numerical techniques based on sector decomposition.

Campbell, John M. [Fermilab]↗

Performance evaluation of integrated guidance and navigation systems

The method of linear covariance analysis is applied to the study of an aerospace vehicle integrated guidance-and-navigation system. This requires that the rms trajectory deviations of the vehicle be computed along with the rms errors of the navigation system. The technique is used to examine the performance of the shuttle orbiter vehicle's guidance-and-navigation system during the terminal phase of the landing. Essentially the same rms trajectory deviations were obtained from a single covariance run as from a 30-sample Monte-Carlo run set. Of particular interest in the study was the result that rms trajectory deviations for the integrated-system were generally significantly larger than the rms navigation errors.

Tao, Y. C.↗

Accelerating the discovery of low-energy structure configurations: A computational approach that integrates first-principles calculations, Monte Carlo sampling, and Machine Learning

Finding Minimum Energy Configurations (MECs) is essential in fields such as physics, chemistry, and materials science, as they represent the most stable states of the systems. In particular, identifying such MECs in multi-component alloys considered candidate PFMs is key because it determines the most stable arrangement of atoms within the alloy, directly influencing its phase stability, structural integrity, and thermo-mechanical properties. However, since the search space grows exponentially with the number of atoms considered, obtaining such MECs using computationally expensive first-principles DFT calculations often results in a cumbersome task. To escape the above compromise between physical fidelity and computational efficiency, we have developed a novel physics-based data-driven approach that combines Monte Carlo sampling, first-principles DFT calculations, and Machine Learning to accelerate the discovery of MECs in multi-component alloys. More specifically, we have leveraged well-established Cluster Expansion (CE) techniques with Local Outlier Factor models to establish strategies that enhance the reliability of the CE method. In this work, we demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed approach for the particular case of a tungsten-based quaternary high-entropy alloy. However, the method is applicable to other types of alloys and enables a wide range of applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Best of both worlds: Enforcing detailed balance in machine learning models of transition rates

The slow microstructural evolution of materials often plays a key role in determining material properties. When the unit steps of the evolution process are slow, direct simulation approaches such as molecular dynamics become prohibitive and Kinetic Monte-Carlo (kMC) algorithms, where the state-to-state evolution of the system is represented in terms of a continuous-time Markov chain, are instead frequently relied upon to efficiently predict long-time evolution. The accuracy of kMC simulations however relies on the complete and accurate knowledge of reaction pathways and corresponding kinetics. This requirement becomes extremely stringent in complex systems such as concentrated alloys where the astronomical number of local atomic configurations makes the a priori tabulation of all possible transitions impractical. Machine learning models of transition kinetics have been used to mitigate this problem by enabling the efficient on-the-fly prediction of kinetic parameters. While conventional KMC methods based on transition state theory naturally yield reversible dynamics that exactly obey the detailed balance criterion, providing strong guarantees on the properties of the stationary distribution, many recently-proposed ML-based approaches to barrier predictions provide no such guarantees. In this study, we derive conditions under which physics-informed ML architectures exactly enforce the detailed balance condition by construction, even when relying on non-extensive descriptions of states in terms of local environments around mobile defects. In conclusion, using the diffusion of a vacancy in a concentrated alloy as an example, we show that such ML architectures also exhibit superior performance in terms of prediction accuracy, demonstrating that the imposition of physical constraints can facilitate the accurate learning of barriers at no increase in computational cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mars Exploration Rover Terminal Descent Mission Modeling and Simulation

Because of NASA's added reliance on simulation for successful interplanetary missions, the MER mission has developed a detailed EDL trajectory modeling and simulation. This paper summarizes how the MER EDL sequence of events are modeled, verification of the methods used, and the inputs. This simulation is built upon a multibody parachute trajectory simulation tool that has been developed in POST I1 that accurately simulates the trajectory of multiple vehicles in flight with interacting forces. In this model the parachute and the suspended bodies are treated as 6 Degree-of-Freedom (6 DOF) bodies. The terminal descent phase of the mission consists of several Entry, Descent, Landing (EDL) events, such as parachute deployment, heatshield separation, deployment of the lander from the backshell, deployment of the airbags, RAD firings, TIRS firings, etc. For an accurate, reliable simulation these events need to be modeled seamlessly and robustly so that the simulations will remain numerically stable during Monte-Carlo simulations. This paper also summarizes how the events have been modeled, the numerical issues, and modeling challenges.

Raiszadeh, Behzad↗

An Empirical Comparison between Two Recursive Filters for Attitude and Rate Estimation of Spinning Spacecraft

The advantages of inducing a constant spin rate on a spacecraft are well known. A variety of science missions have used this technique as a relatively low cost method for conducting science. Starting in the late 1970s, NASA focused on building spacecraft using 3-axis control as opposed to the single-axis control mentioned above. Considerable effort was expended toward sensor and control system development, as well as the development of ground systems to independently process the data. As a result, spinning spacecraft development and their resulting ground system development stagnated. In the 1990s, shrinking budgets made spinning spacecraft an attractive option for science. The attitude requirements for recent spinning spacecraft are more stringent and the ground systems must be enhanced in order to provide the necessary attitude estimation accuracy. Since spinning spacecraft (SC) typically have no gyroscopes for measuring attitude rate, any new estimator would need to rely on the spacecraft dynamics equations. One estimation technique that utilized the SC dynamics and has been used successfully in 3-axis gyro-less spacecraft ground systems is the pseudo-linear Kalman filter algorithm. Consequently, a pseudo-linear Kalman filter has been developed which directly estimates the spacecraft attitude quaternion and rate for a spinning SC. Recently, a filter using Markley variables was developed specifically for spinning spacecraft. The pseudo-linear Kalman filter has the advantage of being easier to implement but estimates the quaternion which, due to the relatively high spinning rate, changes rapidly for a spinning spacecraft. The Markley variable filter is more complicated to implement but, being based on the SC angular momentum, estimates parameters which vary slowly. This paper presents a comparison of the performance of these two filters. Monte-Carlo simulation runs will be presented which demonstrate the advantages and disadvantages of both filters.

Harman, Richard R.↗

Sheath transitions in a cylindrical filament discharge: Axisymmetric 1D3V PIC-MCC simulations

We present the first nonplanar hot cathode discharge simulations that capture the role of the trapped-ions plasma, elucidating new phenomena unobservable in planar geometric discharges. A discharge struck between a single emitting wire filament cathode and a bounding anode is simulated in cylindrical geometry using an axisymmetric (radial) particle-in-cell Monte-Carlo collisions code. Operating the discharge near its ionization energy threshold can lead to the formation of a two plasma mode (TPM). One plasma forms in the conventional upstream region through electron impact ionization of background neutrals. A second plasma, whose global effect on the discharge was not previously well understood, forms downstream through the trapping of cold ions in the potential well of the filament’s virtual cathode, a process enabled by ion-neutral charge exchange collisions. Three space charge regions intersperse the electrode gap—an emissive sheath between the cathode filament and trapped-ions plasma, a double layer between the two plasmas, and a classical sheath between the upstream plasma and the outer anode. Simulations exhibit mode transitions and quenching instabilities that transform the discharge between the TPM and other single-plasma sheath modes that include classical (temperature-limited), space charge limited, and inverse (anode glow) modes. The transitions are explained via “aid-and-compete” dynamics wherein the growth of one plasma enhances growth in the other while concurrently exhibiting expansion dynamics antagonistic to each other. The system exhibits strong hysteresis memory during the mode transitions. Improved understanding and control of these sheath mode transitions are expected to benefit plasma applications with hot cathodes.

Electrical hysteresis↗

Immersion Freezing in Particle-Based Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics: A Probabilistic Perspective on Singular and Time-Dependent Models

Cloud droplets containing immersed ice-nucleating particles (INPs) may freeze at temperatures above the homogeneous freezing threshold temperature in a process referred to as immersion freezing. In modeling studies, immersion freezing is often described using either so-called “singular” or “time-dependent” parameterizations. Here, we compare both approaches and discuss them in the context of probabilistic particle-based (super-droplet) cloud microphysics modeling. First, using a box model, we contrast how both parameterizations respond to idealized ambient cooling rate profiles and quantify the impact of the polydispersity of the immersed surface spectrum on the frozen fraction evolution. Presented simulations highlight that the singular approach, constituting a time-integrated form of a more general time-dependent approach, is only accurate under a limited range of ambient cooling rates. The time-dependent approach is free from this limitation. Second, using a prescribed-flow two-dimensional cloud model, we illustrate the macroscopic differences in the evolution in time of ice particle concentrations in simulations with flow regimes relevant to ambient cloud conditions. The flow-coupled aerosol-budget-resolving simulations highlight the benefits and challenges of modeling cloud condensation nuclei activation and immersion freezing on insoluble ice nuclei with super-particle methods. The challenges stem, on the one hand, from heterogeneous ice nucleation being contingent on the presence of relatively sparse immersed INPs, and on the other hand, from the need to represent a vast population of particles with relatively few so-called super particles (each representing a multiplicity of real particles). We discuss the critical role of the sampling strategy for particle attributes, including the INP size, the freezing temperature (for singular scheme) and the multiplicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capturing Surface Coverage Effects in Heterogeneous Catalysis

Adsorbate–adsorbate lateral interactions at relevant surface coverages have a significant effect on chemical kinetics, thereby influencing the activity of a heterogeneous catalyst. Coverage-dependent kinetic and thermodynamic parameters therefore must be included in studies of such complex systems to properly predict the turnover frequencies and kinetic trends. Thus, it becomes extremely important to accurately capture the strength of lateral interactions between neighboring species under realistic reaction conditions. In this Perspective, we discuss the various existing computational and experimental methods for determining adspecies coverage and configurational effects. The choice of the tools and methods employed in such studies depends on factors such as time, length scales, computational cost, the presence of solvents, and reaction conditions. The applications of each method and the respective challenges are also discussed here. As a result, we discuss the recent developments and future of the state-of-the-art for inclusion of surface coverage and configuration into a holistic picture for accurate predictions of catalytic behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Particle-in-cell simulations of burning inertial confinement fusion capsule implosions

Anomalies observed in the neutron spectral shift of high-yield shots at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) suggest the presence of suprathermal ions [E. P. Hartouni et al., Nat. Phys. 19, 72 (2023)], implying that kinetic effects play a significant role in burning inertial confinement fusion (ICF) plasmas. Furthermore, recent measurements of reaction-in-flight (RIF) neutrons offer a direct probe of the stopping power in the burning fuel region of high-energy alpha particles and up-scattered fuel ions. We have developed the particle-in-cell code PICNIC, an exactly energy-conserving particle-in-cell Monte-Carlo collision (PIC-MCC) code to simulate the burn stage in ICF. We present results from 1D spherical simulations of NIF shot N210808, which was the first to exceed the Lawson criterion for laser fusion. We find that the suprathermal ions generated by large-angle Rutherford and nuclear elastic scattering (NES) with fusion alphas produce an alpha knock-on neutron (AKN) signal consistent with the extent and relative yield of the AKN spectrum identified in ignition experiments at the NIF. Furthermore, we also find that the inclusion of large-angle scattering physics does not explain the anomalously large spectral shift observed in the experiment.

High-energy-density plasmas↗

Monte-Carlo modeling of polar wind photoelectron distributions with anomalous heat flux

In situ measurements above the polar cap by the DE satellites show asymmetric field-aligned electron velocity distributions in the photoelectron energy range 5-60 eV. The formation of these anisotropic distributions is described by a collisional kinetic equation that includes the effects of Coulomb collisions (via a Fokker-Planck operator), those of a parallel electric field, and the magnetic mirror effects of the geomagnetic field. This equation is solved using a Monte Carlo simulation method. The simulation illustrates the formation of the portion of the observed electron distributions originating in the ionosphere and makes it possible to evaluate the significance of the suprathermal electrons at higher altitude. Both observations and calculations indicate that these electrons possess an energy flux which, by its effect on the polar-wind electric field, may influence the dynamics of the polar-wind outflow.

Yasseen, F.↗

Monte-Carlo calculations of Ge detector escape-peak efficiencies

The authors present calculated first and second escape peak efficiencies for a variety of n-type coaxial Ge detectors using the Monte Carlo method. The results are given for right-circular cylindrical geometries of size ranging from 3-cm diameter x 3-cm thick to 8-cm diameter x 8-cm thick. For completeness, the intrinsic interaction and photopeak efficiencies for energies ranging from 20 keV to 20 MeV are listed. The calculations have been tested against experimental measurement and found to be in agreement to within the quoted errors (typically 10 percent). It is found that the ratio of the second escape peak efficiency to the first escape peak efficiency, R, is approximately independent of energy for small detector volumes but has a weak power law energy dependence for large volumes. It is shown that R also varies as an inverse power law of the active volume.

Owens, Alan↗

Monte Carlo predictions of DNA fragment-size distributions for large sizes after HZE particle irradiation

DSBs (double-strand breaks) produced by densely ionizing space radiation are not located randomly in the genome: recent data indicate DSB clustering along chromosomes. DSB clustering at large scales, from >100 Mbp down to approximately 2 kbp, is modeled using a Monte-Carlo algorithm. A random-walk model of chromatin is combined with a track model, that predicts the radial distribution of energy from an ion, and the RLC (randomly-located-clusters) formalism, in software called DNAbreak. This model generalizes the random-breakage model, whose broken-stick fragment-size distribution is applicable to low-LET radiation. DSB induction due to track interaction with the DNA volume depends on the radiation quality parameter Q. This dose-independent parameter depends only weakly on LET. Multi-track, high-dose effects depend on the cluster intensity parameter lambda, proportional to fluence as defined by the RLC formalism. After lambda is determined by a numerical experiment, the model reduces to one adjustable parameter Q. The best numerical fits to the experimental data, determining Q, are obtained. The knowledge of lambda and Q allows us to give biophysically based extrapolations of high-dose DNA fragment-size data to low doses or to high LETs.

NASA Center JSC↗