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At least 73 records · Page 4

Reward-Based Participant Management for Crowdsourcing Rainfall Monitoring: An Agent-Based Model Simulation

Crowdsourcing incorporates common citizens as rich sources of data and is promising for environmental monitoring. Here, we propose and test the idea of incorporating incentives to crowdsourcing management for rainfall monitoring. In particular, we model the allocation of incentives (quantitatively measurable and limited rewards) among crowdsourcing participants for a theoretical rainfall monitoring case. For this purpose, we develop an integrated model comprising a reward allocation component to represent the decision-making process of a central manager, an agent-based model to simulate the interactions between the manager and participants, and a rainfall simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of various reward allocation policies. We simulate six reward allocation policies of varying levels of administrative cost, and consideration of participant and rainfall spatial heterogeneities. The findings indicate the performance of each policy to improve with the reward budget and their spatial uniformity. Among the six policies tested, we discover that the participant density weighted maximum participation policy yields the most accurate estimation of rainfall intensity due to its more explicit consideration of the spatial distribution of participants; however, this policy associates with a high administrative cost. This highlights the trade-off between performance and cost in designing effective reward allocation policies. This paper provides a physical and behavior simulation modeling tool to study the feasibility and complexity of reward-based participant management for crowdsourcing rainfall monitoring. The proposed crowdsourcing method is beneficial for a wide range of applications that require rainfall data with fine resolution, such as storm water management and water availability and biomass assessment for food and energy crops.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cognitive simulation models for inertial confinement fusion: Combining simulation and experimental data

The design space for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments is vast, and experiments are extremely expensive. Researchers rely heavily on computer simulations to explore the design space in search of high-performing implosions. However, ICF multiphysics codes must make simplifying assumptions, and thus deviate from experimental measurements for complex implosions. For more effective design and investigation, simulations require input from past experimental data to better predict future performance. In this work, we describe a cognitive simulation method for combining simulation and experimental data into a common, predictive model. This method leverages a machine learning technique called “transfer learning,” the process of taking a model trained to solve one task, and partially retraining it on a sparse dataset to solve a different, but related task. In the context of ICF design, neural network models are trained on large simulation databases and partially retrained on experimental data, producing models that are far more accurate than simulations alone. Here, we demonstrate improved model performance for a range of ICF experiments at the National Ignition Facility and predict the outcome of recent experiments with less than 10% error for several key observables. We discuss how the methods might be used to carry out a data-driven experimental campaign to optimize performance, illustrating the key product—models that become increasingly accurate as data are acquired.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Operations planning simulation: Model study

The use of simulation modeling for the identification of system sensitivities to internal and external forces and variables is discussed. The technique provides a means of exploring alternate system procedures and processes, so that these alternatives may be considered on a mutually comparative basis permitting the selection of a mode or modes of operation which have potential advantages to the system user and the operator. These advantages are measurements is system efficiency are: (1) the ability to meet specific schedules for operations, mission or mission readiness requirements or performance standards and (2) to accomplish the objectives within cost effective limits.

Source record↗

ELM model simulations of Plum Island Ecosystems LTER low marsh site 2018-2020

Model simulations using the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) with improved capabilities to represent vegetation response to salinity and inundation. The simulations were conducted for a tidal salt marsh at Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site near Rowley, Massachusetts, USA; the site is a low marsh dominated by Spartina alterniflora. The model was forced with site-specific meteorology, salinity and tidal cycles from 2018-2020. Four sets of model simulations are included and described below:1. Parameterization of the salinity response function. These simulations tested different combinations of values for optimal salinity and salinity tolerance.2. Model evaluation. This comparison conducted simulations using the default model, the salinity function only, the submergence function only, and both the salinity and submergence functions. 3. Salinity scenarios. These simulations used the 2018 salinity input data varied by -5 to +10 ppt salinity.4. Water level scenarios. These simulations used the tide height varied by -10 to +50 cm. These simulations were used to demonstrate how the salinity and submergence functions better represent carbon uptake by tidal salt marshes.The data package includes netCDF files used as forcing files for tide height and salinity, one for each year 2018-2020 at observed salinity concentrations, and an additional three forcing files in which salinity concentrations were varied 5 ppt lower, 5 ppt higher, and 10 ppt higher than the measured 2018 time series. Also included are python scripts for creating forcing files, plain text parameter and command files for running simulations, model outputs in netCDF format, and python scripts for visualizing outputs. Code for the modified E3SM model is archived in Sulman et al 2023 at doi:10.15485/1991625. More detail about files is provided in the README.md file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benefits to the Simulation Training Community of a New ANSI Standard for the Exchange of Aero Simulation Models

The American Institute of Aeronautics Astronautics (AIAA) Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee is in final preparation of a new standard for the exchange of flight dynamics models. The standard will become an ANSI standard and is under consideration for submission to ISO for acceptance by the international community. The standard has some a spects that should provide benefits to the simulation training community. Use of the new standard by the training simulation community will reduce development, maintenance and technical refresh investment on each device. Furthermore, it will significantly lower the cost of performing model updates to improve fidelity or expand the envelope of the training device. Higher flight fidelity should result in better transfer of training, a direct benefit to the pilots under instruction. Costs of adopting the standard are minimal and should be paid back within the cost of the first use for that training device. The standard achie ves these advantages by making it easier to update the aerodynamic model. It provides a standard format for the model in a custom eXtensible Markup Language (XML) grammar, the Dynamic Aerospace Vehicle Exchange Markup Language (DAVE-ML). It employs an existing XML grammar, MathML, to describe the aerodynamic model in an input data file, eliminating the requirement for actual software compilation. The major components of the aero model become simply an input data file, and updates are simply new XML input files. It includes naming and axis system conventions to further simplify the exchange of information.

Hildreth, Bruce L.↗

Historical and Future Black Carbon Deposition on the Three Ice Caps: Ice Core Measurements and Model Simulations from 1850 to 2100

Ice core measurements in conjunction with climate model simulations are of tremendous value when examining anthropogenic and natural aerosol loads and their role in past and future climates. Refractory black carbon (BC) records from the Arctic, the Antarctic, and the Himalayas are analyzed using three transient climate simulations performed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Simulations differ in aerosol schemes (bulk aerosols vs. aerosol microphysics) and ocean couplings (fully coupled vs. prescribed ocean). Regional analyses for past (1850-2005) and future (2005-2100) carbonaceous aerosol simulations focus on the Antarctic, Greenland, and the Himalayas. Measurements from locations in the Antarctic show clean conditions with no detectable trend over the past 150 years. Historical atmospheric deposition of BC and sulfur in Greenland shows strong trends and is primarily influenced by emissions from early twentieth century agricultural and domestic practices. Models fail to reproduce observations of a sharp eightfold BC increase in Greenland at the beginning of the twentieth century that could be due to the only threefold increase in the North American emission inventory. BC deposition in Greenland is about 10 times greater than in Antarctica and 10 times less than in Tibet. The Himalayas show the most complicated transport patterns, due to the complex terrain and dynamical regimes of this region. Projections of future climate based on the four CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways indicate further dramatic advances of pollution to the Tibetan Plateau along with decreasing BC deposition fluxes in Greenland and the Antarctic.

Antarctic Regions↗

Modeling, Simulation, and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability

A planning workshop on "Modeling, Simulation and Forecasting of Subseasonal Variability" was held in June 2003. This workshop was the first of a number of meetings planned to follow the NASA-sponsored workshop entitled "Prospects For Improved Forecasts Of Weather And Short-Term Climate Variability On Sub-Seasonal Time Scales" that was held April 2002. The 2002 workshop highlighted a number of key sources of unrealized predictability on subseasonal time scales including tropical heating, soil wetness, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) [a.k.a Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO)], the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. The overarching objective of the 2003 follow-up workshop was to proceed with a number of recommendations made from the 2002 workshop, as well as to set an agenda and collate efforts in the areas of modeling, simulation and forecasting intraseasonal and short-term climate variability. More specifically, the aims of the 2003 workshop were to: 1) develop a baseline of the "state of the art" in subseasonal prediction capabilities, 2) implement a program to carry out experimental subseasonal forecasts, and 3) develop strategies for tapping the above sources of predictability by focusing research, model development, and the development/acquisition of new observations on the subseasonal problem. The workshop was held over two days and was attended by over 80 scientists, modelers, forecasters and agency personnel. The agenda of the workshop focused on issues related to the MJO and tropicalextratropical interactions as they relate to the subseasonal simulation and prediction problem. This included the development of plans for a coordinated set of GCM hindcast experiments to assess current model subseasonal prediction capabilities and shortcomings, an emphasis on developing a strategy to rectify shortcomings associated with tropical intraseasonal variability, namely diabatic processes, and continuing the implementation of an experimental forecast and model development program that focuses on one of the key sources of untapped predictability, namely the MJO. The tangible outcomes of the meeting included: 1) the development of a recommended framework for a set of multi-year ensembles of 45-day hindcasts to be carried out by a number of GCMs so that they can be analyzed in regards to their representations of subseasonal variability, predictability and forecast skill, 2) an assessment of the present status of GCM representations of the MJO and recommendations for future steps to take in order to remedy the remaining shortcomings in these representations, and 3) a final implementation plan for a multi-institute/multi-nation Experimental MJO Prediction Program.

Waliser, Duane↗

A Software Development Simulation Model of a Spiral Process

There is a need for simulation models of software development processes other than the waterfall because processes such as spiral development are becoming more and more popular. The use of a spiral process can make the inherently difficult job of cost and schedule estimation even more challenging due to its evolutionary nature, but this allows for a more flexible process that can better meet customers' needs. This paper will present a discrete event simulation model of spiral development that can be used to analyze cost and schedule effects of using such a process in comparison to a waterfall process.

Mizell, Carolyn↗

A Review and Comparison of Mouse and Rat Responses to Micro Gravity, Hyper Gravity and Simulated Models of Partial Gravity; Species Differences, Gaps in the Available Data, and Consideration of the Advantages and Caveats of Each Model for Spaceflight

Laboratory strains of mice and rat are widely used to study mammalian responses to stimulus, and both have been studied under a variety of gravity conditions, including space flight. We compared results obtained from exposure to spaceflight and microgravity, hyper gravity via centrifugation, earth gravity, and models of simulated partial gravity (hind-limb unloading and partial weight bearing treatments). We examined the reported changes in survival, body mass, circadian rhythm (body temperature and activity levels), behavior, bone, muscle, immune, cardio-vasculature, vestibular, reproduction and neonate survival, microbiome, and the visual system. Not all categories have published data for both species, some have limited data, and there are variations in experiment design that allow for only relative comparisons to be considered. The data reveal species differences in both the level of gravity required to obtain a response, degree of response, and in temporal expression of responses. Examination of the data across the gravity levels allows consideration of the hypothesis that gravitational responses follow a continuum, and organ specific differences are noted. In summary, we present advantages and caveats of each model system as pertains to gravitational biology research and identify gaps in our knowledge of how these mammals respond to gravity.

mouse rat gravity↗

Co-Simulation Model for Optimal Wind-Hydro Coordination Using Wind Farm Control Dynamics

The growing share of Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRES) in power systems presents challenges for regula- tors, grid operators and energy producers. The VRES’ operation has limited flexibility in their operations, as they are highly dependent on ambient environments. To address these challenges, decision-makers must consider multiple objectives, among these are revenue, power system services and mechanical load on wind turbines. Coordinated operation of power plants and different wind farm control strategies are examples of measures that can benefit these objectives. This study proposes a Multi-Objective Linear Programming (MOLP) model to simulate the optimum operation of wind and hydropower plants that share limited transmission capacity. Further, wind farm control dynamics are included to obtain realistic output power and accumulated damage. From this, a case study based on a relevant location in Norway is presented to analyze the improved effect of wind- hydro coordination and wind farm control in achieving the objectives of accumulated wind turbine damage and total revenue of the hybrid power system. In addition, the study considers the potential advantages of adding a variable-speed pump to the hydropower plant. The results demonstrate that by considering multiple objectives in the optimization, one may achieve better overall performance of the objectives. By utilizing the flexibility of hydro storage, the decision maker may adjust to obtain the most desired outcome. Moreover, the added flexibility of utilizing a pump for hydro storage shows great improvements for the combined revenue of the power plants and reduced curtailment of the wind farm. However, less impact is observed from using a variable speed pump compared to a fixed speed pump.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Calcium transport from the intestine and into bone in a rat model simulating weightlessness

The objective of this study was to determine whether a defect in transport of calcium in the duodenum was related to decreased bone formation in the suspended rat. Rats were suspended by the tail at a 40 deg angle for up to 15 days. Ca-45 was injected into the ligated duodenum in situ 15 minutes prior to sacrific. Blood, tibia, vertebra and humerus were obtained for total calcium and Ca-45 analyses. Intestinal calcium transport did not appear to be significantly altered by suspension. However, by 5 days of suspension a significant decrease in accumulation of Ca-45 into tibia and vertebra was observed. A trend of decreasing bone mineral and mass was established in tibia and vertebra by the fifth day of suspension. The humerus failed to demonstrate a significant weight decrease or change in Ca-45 accumulation after 15 days of suspension. Results from this simulated weightlessness model suggest that transport of calcium from intestine into bone is decreased within 5 days of suspension. This deficiency appears to be associated with a progressive decrease in total mass of non-weightbearing bones.

Bikle, D. D.↗

Simulations, Modeling and Data Analysis of Parity Violating Electron Scattering Experiments

In the Standard Model (SM) of nuclear and particle physics, parity violation is incorporated through the representation of the weak interaction as a chiral gauge interaction. Only the left-handed components of particles and right-handed components of antiparticles participate in weak interactions in the Standard Model. This implies that parity is asymmetric for the weak interaction. Parity violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments are designed to probe the physics parameters related to the SM, with the possibility to discover physics beyond the SM (BSM) by measuring the parity violating asymmetry ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized targets with high precision. This dissertation will be focused on two PVES experiments, the next 208Pb Lead Radius Experiment (PREX-II), and the Measurement of a Lepton-Lepton Electroweak Reaction (MOLLER) experiment, as well as in some small sections, the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) and P2 experiment which are also PVES experiments). PREX-II and CREX experiments, performed in Hall A at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), measured ¿¿¿ in the elastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons from 208Pb and 48Ca targets to provide a precise model independent determination of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb and 48Ca nuclei, respectively. The MOLLER experiment, proposed to start in 2027 and also to be performed in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, is to measure ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized electrons (Møller scattering) to determine the weak charge of electrons ¿¿¿ and the weak mixing angle ¿¿ with high precision. As for the P2 experiment, which will be performed at the upcoming MESA accelerator in Mainz Germany, it is to measure the weak charge of proton ¿¿¿ using ¿¿¿ in the elastic electron-proton scattering of polarized electrons off unpolarized protons. The final results from the PREX-II experiment are presented as ¿¿¿=550±16 (¿¿¿¿)±8 (¿¿¿¿) parts-per-billion (ppb). Combining the PREX-I and PREX-II results, the neutron skin thickness from PREX experiments is determined as ¿¿-¿¿=0.283±0.071 ¿¿ in 208Pb. This thesis lists the software and computational contribution of the author to these PVES experiments, including writing scripts and software to help with the PREX-II/CREX experiments, analyzing data to provide useful information and systematic uncertainty for the PREX-II experiment, modeling and simulations for the MOLLER, and providing an alternative design of an electronic equipment for the P2 experiment.

Chen, Yufan↗

Simulations, Modeling and Data Analysis of Parity Violating Electron Scattering Experiments

In the Standard Model (SM) of nuclear and particle physics, parity violation is incorporated through the representation of the weak interaction as a chiral gauge interaction. Only the left-handed components of particles and right-handed components of antiparticles participate in weak interactions in the Standard Model. This implies that parity is asymmetric for the weak interaction. Parity violating electron scattering (PVES) experiments are designed to probe the physics parameters related to the SM, with the possibility to discover physics beyond the SM (BSM) by measuring the parity violating asymmetry ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized targets with high precision. This dissertation will be focused on two PVES experiments, the next 208Pb Lead Radius Experiment (PREX-II), and the Measurement of a Lepton-Lepton Electroweak Reaction (MOLLER) experiment, as well as in some small sections, the Calcium Radius Experiment (CREX) and P2 experiment which are also PVES experiments). PREX-II and CREX experiments, performed in Hall A at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), measured ¿¿¿ in the elastic scattering of longitudinally polarized electrons from 208Pb and 48Ca targets to provide a precise model independent determination of the neutron skin thickness of 208Pb and 48Ca nuclei, respectively. The MOLLER experiment, proposed to start in 2027 and also to be performed in Hall A at Jefferson Lab, is to measure ¿¿¿ of longitudinally polarized electrons scattered off unpolarized electrons (Møller scattering) to determine the weak charge of electrons ¿¿¿ and the weak mixing angle ¿¿ with high precision. As for the P2 experiment, which will be performed at the upcoming MESA accelerator in Mainz Germany, it is to measure the weak charge of proton ¿¿¿ using ¿¿¿ in the elastic electron-proton scattering of polarized electrons off unpolarized protons. The final results from the PREX-II experiment are presented as ¿¿¿=550±16 (¿¿¿¿)±8 (¿¿¿¿) parts-per-billion (ppb). Combining the PREX-I and PREX-II results, the neutron skin thickness from PREX experiments is determined as ¿¿-¿¿=0.283±0.071 ¿¿ in 208Pb. This thesis lists the software and computational contribution of the author to these PVES experiments, including writing scripts and software to help with the PREX-II/CREX experiments, analyzing data to provide useful information and systematic uncertainty for the PREX-II experiment, modeling and simulations for the MOLLER, and providing an alternative design of an electronic equipment for the P2 experiment.

Chen, Yufan↗

Hybrid Concurrent Constraint Simulation Models of Several Systems

This distribution contains several simulation models created for the hybrid simulation language, Hybrid Concurrent Constraint (HCC). An HCC model contains the information specified in the widely-accepted academic definition of a hybrid system: this includes expressions for the modes of the systems to be simulated and the differential equations that apply in each mode. These expressions are written in the HCC syntax. The models included here were created by either applying basic physical laws or implementing equations listed in previously published papers.

Sweet, Adam↗