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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Validation of SAM Multi-dimensional Flow Model for Thermal Mixing and Stratification Modeling

Thermal mixing and stratification in large pools or enclosures are very important phenomena that are critical to nuclear reactor safety. Because of the wide ranges of time and length scales associated with such phenomena, accurate modeling and simulation of thermal mixing and stratification remain as the key unresolved, challenging problems for reactor transient analyses. In traditional system analysis codes, simplified zero-dimensional (0-D) models are widely used for their high numerical efficiency, but they generally suffer from very limited prediction accuracies or range of applicability. Like traditional system analysis codes, the current version of the SAM code has implemented such simplified 0-D and one-dimensional mixing models. On the other hand, high-resolution Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools are often used to model complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. They are, however, generally numerically expensive, and they require large amounts of computational resources. It is therefore desirable to implement advanced and efficient thermal mixing and stratification modeling capabilities embedded in a system analysis code. This approach will improve the accuracy of reactor safety analyses when thermal mixing and stratification are involved, and also avoid using the large computational resources needed for high-resolution CFD analysis. Currently, with the support of the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, an effort has been launched to develop and implement a multi-dimensional flow model in the system analysis code SAM, and demonstrate its applications to model thermal mixing and stratification phenomena in large enclosures. The main outcomes of this research and development activity are summarized in this report, which presents an attempt to include a built-in advanced multi-dimensional flow model in a system analysis code with the focus on overcoming the simulation challenges of thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. In this report, we start with the introduction of existing SAM code capabilities to simulate thermal mixing and stratification phenomena, which is followed by a short summary of the multi-dimensional model implemented in the SAM code, including both the physical model and the Finite Element Method code implementation. In this study, two options were implemented in the SAM code to model turbulent flows: a relatively simple built-in turbulence model and an interface to accept externally computed turbulent viscosities (e.g., from a high- resolution CFD simulation). Code validation studies on this newly added capability were then carried out to compare SAM simulation results with experimental data from the SUPERCAVNA facility, which was designed to study the complex flow recirculation and thermal stratification phenomena relevant to sodium fast reactor designs. In this study, one transient and two steady-state test cases were used for code validation. Different approaches have been used to model the complex turbulence flow fields in the SUPERCAVNA facility. A highly simplified zero-equation turbulence model was first used, but it was determined that it is too simple to capture the complex turbulence flow fields in these test cases. Subsequently, the code validation continued with the use of turbulent viscosity data from high-resolution STAR-CCM+ CFD simulations to improve the accuracy of the results. Using this approach, the SAM simulation results showed very good agreement with both the SUPERCAVNA experimental data and STAR-CCM+ simulation results. In this report, we demonstrate the development, implementation, and successful validation of a multi-dimensional flow model in the SAM code, which aims to improve the simulation accuracy for complex thermal mixing and stratification phenomena. Lessons have also been learned, including that in cases where the flow fields are not well predicted by the zero-equation model, the iinput of turbulent viscosities from an external source can enhance the overall predictive capabilities needed to accurately capture complex thermal-hydraulic phenomena. Therefore, future research will be needed to further improve the code’s capabilities, such as by developing a more efficient and robust approach to capture the turbulence effects in the SAM code.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimization of Graded Bed Reactors for Syngas to Olefin (STO) Processes

Reactor designs with mixed catalysts play an important role to transform a multiple reactor system to single-shot reactors. In addition to savings in capital and ease of implementation, single-shot reactors are useful to break equilibrium limitations, therefore increasing the yield and selectivity of desired product. However, the nonlinear, highly exothermic and poorly conditioned nature of mixed-catalyst systems makes it difficult for commercial process simulation and optimization tools to optimize these systems. Here, this study describes the zone and partial moving finite element approaches and their applications to o-xylene oxidation and syngas to olefin (STO) processes. 35% and 5% increases are achieved in the product yield for o-xylene oxidation and STO problems, respectively. Shown with these two examples, this tool is very promising in process intensification for other reactive systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

On optimal control of hybrid dynamical systems using complementarity constraints

Optimal control for switch-based dynamical systems is a challenging problem in the process control literature. In this study, we model these systems as hybrid dynamical systems with finite number of unknown switching points and reformulate them using non-smooth and non-convex complementarity constraints as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC). We utilize a moving finite element based strategy to discretize the differential equation system to accurately locate the unknown switching points at the finite element boundary and achieve high-order accuracy at intermediate non-collocation points. We propose a globalization approach to solve the discretized MPCC problem using a mixed NLP/MILP-based strategy to converge to a non-spurious first-order optimal solution. The method is tested on three dynamic optimization examples, including a gas–liquid tank model and an optimal control problem with a sliding mode solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscopic structure of mixed type domain walls in multiaxial ferroelectrics

The structure of a 180° uncharged rotational domain wall in a multiaxial ferroelectric film is studied in the framework of an analytical Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire (LGD) approach. Finite element modeling (FEM) is used to solve numerically the system of the coupled nonlinear Euler-Lagrange (EL) second-order differential equations for two components of polarization. We show that the structure of the domain wall and corresponding metastable or stable phase of the film are controlled by a single parameter—the dimensionless ferroelectric anisotropy factor μ. We fitted the static profile of a solitary domain wall, calculated by FEM, with kinklike functions for polarization components, and extracted the five μ-dependent parameters from the fitting to FEM curves. The surprisingly high accuracy of the fitting results for two polarization components in the entire μ range allows us to conclude that the analytical functions, which are trial functions in the direct variational method, can be treated as a high-accuracy variational solution of the static EL equations. We further derive exact two-component analytical solutions of the static EL equations for a polydomain 180° domain structure in a multiaxial ferroelectric film. Using these, we derive analytical expressions for the system free energy and analyze its dependence on the film thickness and boundary conditions at the film surfaces. The single-domain state is ground for zero polarization derivative at the surfaces, while the polydomain states minimize the system energy for zero polarization at the surfaces. Counterintuitively, the energy of the polydomain states split into two levels, “0” and “1,” for zero polarization at the surfaces, and each of the levels contains a large number of close-energy sublevels, whose structure is characterized by a different number and type of domain walls. The analytical solutions can become a useful tool for Bayesian analysis of high-resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy images in ferroelectric films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Fast Algebraic Multigrid Solver and Accurate Discretization for Highly Anisotropic Heat Flux I: Open Field Lines

We present a novel solver technique for the anisotropic heat flux equation, aimed at the high level of anisotropy seen in magnetic confinement fusion plasmas. Such problems pose two major challenges: (i) discretization accuracy and (ii) efficient implicit linear solvers. We simultaneously address each of these challenges by constructing a new finite element discretization with excellent accuracy properties, tailored to a novel solver approach based on algebraic multigrid (AMG) methods designed for advective operators. We pose the problem in a mixed formulation, introducing the directional temperature gradient as an auxiliary variable. The temperature and auxiliary fields are discretized in a scalar discontinuous Galerkin space with upwinding principles used for discretizations of advection. We demonstrate the proposed discretization’s superior accuracy over other discretizations of anisotropic heat flux, achieving error 1000x smaller for anisotropy ratio of 10 9 , for closed field lines. The block matrix system is reordered and solved in an approach where the two advection operators are inverted using AMG solvers based on approximate ideal restriction, which is particularly efficient for upwind discontinuous Galerkin discretizations of advection. To ensure that the advection operators are nonsingular, in this paper we restrict ourselves to considering open (acyclic) magnetic field lines for the linear solvers. We demonstrate fast convergence of the proposed iterative solver in highly anisotropic regimes where other diffusion-based AMG methods fail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization Modeling for Advanced Syngas to Olefin Reactive Systems

Reactor designs with mixed catalysts play an important role in transforming a multiple reactor system to single-shot reactors. In addition to savings in capital and ease of implementation, single-shot reactors are useful to break equilibrium limitations, thereby increasing the yield and selectivity of desired product as shown in previous studies. However, the nonlinear and highly exothermic nature of mixed-catalyst systems makes it difficult for commercial process simulation and optimization tools to optimize these systems. This study describes the development and application of optimization strategies for mixed-catalyst, single-shot reactors for syngas to olefin (STO) processes. Finding the optimal catalyst distribution is challenging and requires advanced solution strategies for singular optimal control problems, which are poorly conditioned and often lead to flat response surfaces. The graded bed and partial-moving finite-element approaches are used to find the optimal catalyst distribution that maximizes the olefins yield. A 1.3% increase in the yield is observed from one zone to three zones. The yield further improves from three zones to the exact infinite dimensional solution by 0.2%. This improvement can be realized in practice by changing only the catalyst distribution, without any extra investment. Lastly, the results suggest that a mixed-catalyst single shot reactor bed can be applied to other reaction mechanisms to increase reactor performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Stress-Induced Pore Water Pressures in The Vadose Zone Beneath a Composite-Lined Landfill - 20029

A finite-element model was developed to evaluate mechanisms contributing to positive pore pressures measured with sealed pressure transducers in the geological buffer beneath the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility, a composite-lined mixed waste disposal facility operated by the US Department of Energy. The geological buffer is a 3-m-thick engineered fine-textured layer directly beneath the Environmental Management Waste Management Facility's composite liner, and above the groundwater table. The model accounts for changes in pore water pressure resulting from (i) loading imposed by waste placed on the overlying liner, (ii) moistening of the geological buffer due to equilibration with the underlying geological materials, and (iii) fluctuations in the elevation of the underlying groundwater table. Pore water pressures predicted by the model are in good agreement with pore water pressures measured in the field. The predictions confirm that positive pore water pressures recorded by the sealed pressure transducers in the geological buffer are excess pore water pressures induced by the vertical normal stress imposed by waste placed on the liner, and are not due to a rise in the groundwater table. Simulations also showed that two additional years of filling would further increase the pore water pressure without any change in elevation of the groundwater table. The geological buffer remained unsaturated during the simulation, with a B-coefficient (parameter indicative of the degree of saturation) similar to that computed from the field-measured pore water pressures and waste filling records. Larger increases in pore water pressure were observed when the geological buffer was assumed to have higher initial saturation, as was observed in the field data. Incorporating seasonal fluctuations in the groundwater table beneath the geological buffer in the model resulted in predictions of small seasonal oscillation in the pore water pressure at the measurement location, similar to seasonal oscillations observed in the field. Predictions made with the model indicate that the dissipation of the excess pore water pressures will occur over decades due to the low hydraulic conductivity of the geological buffer material. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanics of vitrimer particle compression and fusion under heat press

The compression and fusion of vitrimer particles is a fundamental problem underlying the recycling of vitrimers. Incomplete particle compression can lead to voids in the fused vitrimer, thereby impacting its mechanical property. In this work, we present a two-dimensional finite element model to capture the interplay of multiple complex mechanisms including random particle packing, large deformation, inter-particle contact, thermally activated bulk stress relaxation, and interface healing. Specifically, we focus on understanding two key components of this problem: i) evolution of porosity during compression and fusion of randomly packed vitrimer particles, and ii) effective tensile modulus and strength of fused vitrimer. Using the finite element model, we first show that using smaller particles can reduce the porosity in the fused vitrimer, which only slightly increases the effective modulus, but the increase in tensile strength is more pronounced. In addition, under the same processing conditions, particles with mixed sizes can achieve better densification and higher tensile strength after fusion than uniformly sized particles with the same average radius. Regarding the effects of processing conditions, we discuss how the porosity and effective modulus of the fused vitrimer depend on the processing time, temperature and pressure, and find a general trend consistent with experimental observations, i.e. longer processing time, higher temperature or higher pressure can lead to lower porosity and higher modulus of the fused vitrimer. Finally, the theoretical insights towards the compression and fusion process as well as the simulation framework can be useful in optimizing the powder-based heat press process of vitrimer and its composites.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development, Implementation, and Verification of Partially-Ionized Collisional Multifluid Plasma Models in Drekar

We consider the development of multifluid models for partially ionized multispecies plasmas. The models are composed of a standard set of five-moment fluid equations for each species plus a description of electromagnetics. The most general model considered utilizes a full set of fluid equations for each charge state of each atomic species, plus a set of fluid equations for electrons. The fluid equations are coupled through source terms describing electromagnetic coupling, ionization, recombination, charge exchange, and elastic scattering collisions in the low-density coronal limit. The form of each of these source terms is described in detail, and references for required rate coefficients are identified for a diverse range of atomic species. Initial efforts have been made to extend these models to incorporate some higher-density collisional effects, including ionization potential depression and three- body recombination. Some reductions of the general multifluid model are considered. First, a reduced multifluid model is derived which averages over all of the charge states (including neutrals) of each atomic species in the general multifluid model. The resulting model maintains full consistency with the general multifluid model from which it is derived by leveraging a quasi-steady-state collisional ionization equilibrium assumption to recover the ionization fractions required to make use of the general collision models. Further reductions are briefly considered to derive certain components of a single-fluid magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model. In this case, a generalized Ohm's law is obtained, and the standard MHD resistivity is expressed in terms of the collisional models used in the general multifluid model. A number of numerical considerations required to obtain robust implementations of these multifluid models are discussed. First, an algebraic flux correction (AFC) stabilization approach for a continuous Galerkin finite element discretization of the multifluid system is described in which the characteristic speeds used in the stabilization of the fluid systems are synchronized across all species in the model. It is demonstrated that this synchronization is crucial in order to obtain a robust discretization of the multifluid system. Additionally, several different formulations are considered for describing the electromagnetics portion of the multifluid system using nodal continuous Galerkin finite element discretizations. The formulations considered include a parabolic divergence cleaning method and an implicit projection method for the traditional curl formulation of Maxwell's equations, a purely- hyperbolic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations, and a mixed hyperbolic-elliptic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations. Some advantages and disadvantages of each formulation are explored to compare solution robustness and the ease of use of each formulation. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of various components of our implementation. Analytic solutions for a spatially homogeneous damped plasma oscillation are derived in order to verify the implementation of the source terms for electromagnetic coupling and elastic collisions between fluid species. Ionization balance as a function of electron temperature is evaluated for several atomic species of interest by comparing to steady-state calculations using various sets of ionization and recombination rate coefficients. Several test problems in one and two spatial dimensions are used to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the discretization and stabilization approach for the fluid components of the multifluid system. This includes standard test problems for electrostatic and electromagnetic shock tubes in the two-fluid and ideal shock-MHD limits, a cylindrical diocotron instability, and the GEM challenge magnetic reconnection problem. A one-dimensional simplified prototype of an argon gas puff configuration as deployed on Sandia's Z-machine is used as a demonstration to exercise the full range of capabilities associated with the general multifluid model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal conductivity of crack-containing media: A numerical study

The present study aims to evaluate the effective thermal conduction behavior of crack-containing media through micromechanical modeling. Numerical analyses were performed using the finite element method, first using periodic arrays of elliptical pores and then reducing the elliptical minor axis to reach the crack limit. This parametric approach was seen to be able to capture the effect of discontinuity across the crack face in a straightforward manner. The overall thermal conductivity of the model structures, encompassing a range of crack densities and spatial distributions, was investigated. It was found that, for cracks with mixed orientations, the effective thermal conductivity is insensitive to the actual crack alignment and can be uniquely represented by the crack density. The mixed-orientation periodic crack configurations are also representative of random sizes, orientations, and spatial distributions of cracks, thus exhibiting a high degree of generality. The modeling analyses can also be used to determine simple empirical expressions for two- and three-dimensional media containing random cracks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preserving Superconvergence of Spectral Elements for Curved Domains

Spectral element methods (SEM), extensions of finite element methods (FEM), have emerged as significant techniques for solving partial differential equations in physics and engineering. SEM can potentially deliver superior accuracy due to the potential superconvergence in nodal solutions for well-shaped tensor-product elements. However, the accuracy of SEM often degrades in complex geometries due to geometric inaccuracies near curved boundaries and the loss of superconvergence with simplicial or non-tensor-product elements. To overcome the first issue, we propose using geometric refinement, which both refines the mesh near high-curvature regions and increases the degree of geometric basis functions. We show that when using mixed-element meshes with tensor-product elements in the interior of the domain, curvature-based geometric refinement near boundaries can improve the accuracy of the interior elements by reducing pollution errors and preserving the superconvergence in nodal solutions. To address the second issue, we introduce ApSEM, a post-processing technique using the adaptive extended stencil finite element method (AES-FEM) to recover the accuracy near the curved boundaries. The combination of curvature-based geometric refinement and accurate post-processing offers an effective and easier-to-implement alternative to methods reliant on exact geometries. We demonstrate our techniques by solving the convection-diffusion equation in 2D and 3D and show up to two orders of magnitude of improvement in the solution accuracy, even when the elements are poorly shaped near boundaries. We also show the efficiency of ApSEM as it can recover superconvergence in nodal solutions without drastically increasing the computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preserving Superconvergence of Spectral Elements for Curved Domains via $h$ and $p$-Geometric Refinement

Spectral element methods (SEM), extensions of finite element methods (FEM), have emerged as significant techniques for solving partial differential equations in physics and engineering. SEM can potentially deliver superior accuracy due to the potential superconvergence in nodal solutions for well-shaped tensor-product elements. However, the accuracy of SEM often degrades in complex geometries due to geometric inaccuracies near curved boundaries and the loss of superconvergence with simplicial or non-tensor-product elements. To overcome the first issue, we propose using h- and p-geometric refinement, which refines the mesh near high-curvature regions and increases the degree of geometric basis functions, respectively. We show that when using mixed-element meshes with tensor-product elements in the interior of the domain, curvature-based geometric refinement near boundaries can improve the accuracy of the interior elements by reducing pollution errors and preserving the superconvergence in nodal solutions. To address the second issue, we introduce a post-processing technique using the adaptive extended stencil finite element method (AES-FEM) to recover the accuracy near the curved boundaries. The combination of curvature-based geometric refinement and accurate post-processing offers an effective and easier-to-implement alternative to methods reliant on exact geometries. We demonstrate our techniques by solving the convection-diffusion equation in 2D and show up to two orders of magnitude of improvement in the solution accuracy, even when the elements are poorly shaped near boundaries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

CFD/FEA Co-Simulation Framework for Analysis of the Thermal Barrier Coating Design and Its Impact on the HD Diesel Engine Performance

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) have been investigated both experimentally and through simulation for mixing controlled combustion (MCC) concepts as a method for reducing heat transfer losses and increasing cycle efficiency, but it is still a very active research area. Early studies were inconclusive, with different groups discovering obstacles to realizing the theoretical potential. Nuanced papers have shown that coating material properties, thickness, microstructure, and surface morphology/roughness all can impact the efficacy of the thermal barrier coating and must be accounted for. Adding to the complexities, a strong spatial and temporal heat flux inhomogeneity exists for mixing controlled combustion (diesel) imposed onto the surfaces from the impinging flame jets. In support of the United States Department of Energy SuperTruck II program goal to achieve 55% brake thermal efficiency on a heavy-duty diesel engines, this study sought to develop a deeper insight into the inhomogeneous heat flux from mixing controlled combustion on thermal barrier coatings and to infer concrete guidance for designing coatings. To that end, a co-simulation approach was developed that couples high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of in-cylinder processes and combustion, and finite element analysis (FEA) modeling of the thermal barrier-coated and metal engine components to resolve spatial and temporal thermal boundary conditions. The models interface at the surface of the combustion chamber; FEA modeling predicts the spatially resolved surface temperature profile, while CFD develops insights into the effect of the thermal barrier coating on the combustion process and the boundary conditions on the gas side. The paper demonstrates the capability of the framework to estimate cycle impacts of the temperature swing at the surface, as well as identify critical locations on the piston/thermal barrier coating that exhibit the highest charge temperature and highest heat fluxes. In addition, the FEA results include predictions of thermal stresses, thus enabling insight into factors affecting coating durability. An example of the capability of the framework is provided to illustrate its use for investigating novel coatings and provide deeper insights to guide future coating design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of microstructures in radiation fields using a coupled binary-collision Monte Carlo phase field approach

The simulation of radiation effects in materials broadly falls into two categories. At short time and length scales lies the modeling of primary radiation damage, such as point defect creation, energy deposition, and ballistic mixing. This is followed by the modeling at longer time scales of thermally activated microstructure evolution and defect reactions, such as recombination, clustering, and coarsening. The binary collision Monte Carlo method is an established, numerically efficient method for the computation of primary radiation damage. Conversely, the phase field method is a state of the art method for microstructure evolution on longer time and length scales. Here we present a concurrent coupling of these two methods, overcoming the difference between the discrete object Monte Carlo paradigm for primary radiation damage and the continuum field variable approach for microstructure evolution. The coupling is bidirectional, in which the microstructure evolution in the MOOSE finite element frame- work provides the spatial scattering data set for the charged particle trans- port and receives point defect, mass transport, and heat source terms from the simulated collision cascades that contribute to the field variable evolution. The concurrent coupling scheme is implemented in the code Magpie and demonstrated by investigating patterning for a model irradiated immiscible binary alloy. The results from the coupled binary collision Monte Carlo/phase field simulations reproduce the results of analytical models for phase separation, phase mixing, and patterning, supporting the approach and indicating its utility for modeling real materials systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Scaling Study for Incompressible Multispecies Solver in Vertex-CFD

Multispecies incompressible flows occur widely in engineering and environmental applications, such as chemical reactors, fuel cells, ocean mixing, and biomedical systems. However, accurately resolving the complex transport and mixing phenomena associated with multiple interacting species remains computationally challenging, especially for large-scale problems. In this study, we present a robust, high-performance computing--enabled multispecies incompressible Navier–Stokes solver integrated within the Vertex-CFD framework. Our solver employs a fully coupled, implicit, finite element--based formulation that accurately captures the advection, diffusion, and interaction of multiple species in incompressible flows by leveraging the Kokkos library for parallel computing to achieve high computational efficiency. For pressure coupling, the entropically damped artificial compressibility method is utilized. We validated the solver against canonical test cases, including multispecies advection, diffusion, and Bateman systems; the results demonstrate second- and third-order spatial accuracy and consistent convergence. Additionally, we demonstrated the strong and weak scaling study results obtained on the leadership-class high-performance computing system, Frontier at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

Oz, Furkan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000265831724)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗