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At least 73 records · Page 4

Improving Estimation of the Koopman Operator with Kolmogorov–Smirnov Indicator Functions

It has become common to perform kinetic analysis using approximate Koopman operators that transform high-dimensional timeseries of observables into ranked dynamical modes. The key to the practical success of the approach is the identification of a set of observables that form a good basis on which to expand the slow relaxation modes. Good observables are, however, difficult to identify a priori and suboptimal choices can lead to significant underestimations of characteristic time scales. Leveraging the representation of slow dynamics in terms of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), we propose a simple and computationally efficient clustering procedure to infer surrogate observables that form a good basis for slow modes. Here, we apply the approach to an analytically solvable model system as well as on three protein systems of different complexities. We consistently demonstrate that the inferred indicator functions can significantly improve the estimation of the leading eigenvalues of Koopman operators and correctly identify key states and transition time scales of stochastic systems, even when good observables are not known a priori.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Benchmarking the performance of uncertainty quantification methods for neural network-based interatomic potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (ML-IAPs) continue to gain popularity as accurate, computationally efficient replacements for traditional, physics-based interatomic potentials and expensive ab initio methods. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML-IAPs is a growing area of research as UQ is critical in many applications of IAPs, such as developing curated datasets, active learning-based data augmentation, self-improving models, and estimating the uncertainty of molecular dynamics simulations. In this paper, we construct and benchmark a series of different neural network potentials (NNPs) with varying network architectures to determine the performance of these models with respect to both the mean and uncertainty calibration error. Each NNP method is specifically designed to predict either epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty with particular focus on the differences in behavior between the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates. We benchmark these methods using multiple datasets common in the ML-IAP literature. The results show that the aleatoric uncertainty from single-shot model architectures is a competitive alternative to ensemble-based epistemic uncertainty predictions in regions of sufficient data-density. However, in regions where the representative data is sparse, aleatoric uncertainty models tend to overpredict and epistemic methods tend to underpredict the actual model error. We conclude that the type of UQ is crucial when discussing performance of probabilistic model results as different methods have different performance characteristics depending on the regime in which they are evaluated. Therefore, the type of UQ method should be carefully evaluated against both the data characteristics and requirements for the intended application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep learning with mixup augmentation for improved pore detection during additive manufacturing

In additive manufacturing (AM), process defects such as keyhole pores are difficult to anticipate, affecting the quality and integrity of the AM-produced materials. Hence, considerable efforts have aimed to predict these process defects by training machine learning (ML) models using passive measurements such as acoustic emissions. This work considered a dataset in which keyhole pores of a laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) experiment were identified using X-ray radiography and then registered both in space and time to acoustic measurements recorded during the LPBF experiment. Due to AM’s intrinsic process controls, where a pore-forming event is relatively rare, the acoustic datasets collected during monitoring include more non-pores than pores. In other words, the dataset for ML model development is imbalanced. Moreover, this imbalanced and sparse data phenomenon remains ubiquitous across many AM monitoring schemes since training data is nontrivial to collect. Hence, we propose a machine learning approach to improve this dataset imbalance and enhance the prediction accuracy of pore-labeled data. Specifically, we investigate how data augmentation helps predict pores and non-pores better. This imbalance is improved using recent advances in data augmentation called Mixup, a weak-supervised learning method. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are trained on original and augmented datasets, and an appreciable increase in performance is reported when testing on five different experimental trials. When ML models are trained on original and augmented datasets, they achieve an accuracy of 95% and 99% on test datasets, respectively. We also provide information on how dataset size affects model performance. Lastly, we investigate the optimal Mixup parameters for augmentation in the context of CNN performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reinforcement learning for block decomposition of planar CAD models

Abstract The problem of hexahedral mesh generation of general CAD models has vexed researchers for over 3 decades and analysts often spend more than 50% of the design-analysis cycle time decomposing complex models into simpler blocks meshable by existing techniques. The decomposed blocks are required for generating good quality meshes (tilings of quadrilaterals or hexahedra) suitable for numerical simulations of physical systems governed by conservation laws. We present a novel AI-assisted method for decomposing (segmenting) planar CAD (computer-aided design) models into well shaped rectangular blocks. Even though the simple examples presented here can also be meshed using many conventional methods, we believe this work is proof-of-principle of a AI-based decomposition method that can eventually be generalized to complex 2D and 3D CAD models. Our method uses reinforcement learning to train an agent to perform a series of optimal cuts on the CAD model that result in a good quality block decomposition. We show that the agent quickly learns an effective strategy for picking the location and direction of the cuts and maximizing its rewards. This paper is the first successful demonstration of an agent autonomously learning how to perform this block decomposition task effectively, thereby holding the promise of a viable method to automate this challenging process for more complex cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A phase transition for finding needles in nonlinear haystacks with LASSO artificial neural networks

To fit sparse linear associations, a LASSO sparsity inducing penalty with a single hyperparameter provably allows to recover the important features (needles) with high probability in certain regimes even if the sample size is smaller than the dimension of the input vector (haystack). More recently learners known as artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown great successes in many machine learning tasks, in particular fitting nonlinear associations. Small learning rate, stochastic gradient descent algorithm and large training set help to cope with the explosion in the number of parameters present in deep neural networks. Yet few ANN learners have been developed and studied to find needles in nonlinear haystacks. Driven by a single hyperparameter, our ANN learner, like for sparse linear associations, exhibits a phase transition in the probability of retrieving the needles, which we do not observe with other ANN learners. To select our penalty parameter, we generalize the universal threshold of Donoho and Johnstone (Biometrika 81(3):425–455, 1994) which is a better rule than the conservative (too many false detections) and expensive cross-validation. In the spirit of simulated annealing, we propose a warm-start sparsity inducing algorithm to solve the high-dimensional, non-convex and non-differentiable optimization problem. We perform simulated and real data Monte Carlo experiments to quantify the effectiveness of our approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Models and Methods for Sparse (Hyper)Network Science in Business, Industry, and Government

The authors are hosting an AMS sponsored Mathematics Research Community (MRC) focusing on two themes that have garnered intense attention in network models of complex relational data: (1) how to faithfully model multi-way relations in hypergraphs, rather than only pairwise interactions in graphs; and (2) challenges posed by modelling networks with extreme sparsity. Here we introduce and explore these two themes and their challenges. In this work, we hope to generate interest from researchers in pure and applied mathematics and computer science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Information-incorporated gene network construction with FDR control

Abstract Motivation Large-scale gene expression studies allow gene network construction to uncover associations among genes. To study direct associations among genes, partial correlation-based networks are preferred over marginal correlations. However, FDR control for partial correlation-based network construction is not well-studied. In addition, currently available partial correlation-based methods cannot take existing biological knowledge to help network construction while controlling FDR. Results In this paper, we propose a method called Partial Correlation Graph with Information Incorporation (PCGII). PCGII estimates partial correlations between each pair of genes by regularized node-wise regression that can incorporate prior knowledge while controlling the effects of all other genes. It handles high-dimensional data where the number of genes can be much larger than the sample size and controls FDR at the same time. We compare PCGII with several existing approaches through extensive simulation studies and demonstrate that PCGII has better FDR control and higher power. We apply PCGII to a plant gene expression dataset where it recovers confirmed regulatory relationships and a hub node, as well as several direct associations that shed light on potential functional relationships in the system. We also introduce a method to supplement observed data with a pseudogene to apply PCGII when no prior information is available, which also allows checking FDR control and power for real data analysis. Availability and implementation R package is freely available for download at https://cran.r-project.org/package=PCGII.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Solution of the Steady-State Network Flow Equations for a Non-Ideal Gas

Herein we formulate a steady-state network flow problem for non-ideal gas that relates injection rates and nodal pressures in the network to flows in pipes. For this problem, we present and prove a theorem on uniqueness of generalized solution for a broad class of non-ideal pressure-density relations that satisfy a monotonicity property. Further, we develop a Newton-Raphson algorithm for numerical solution of the steady-state problem, which is made possible by a systematic non-dimensionalization of the equations. The developed algorithm has been extensively tested on benchmark instances and shown to converge robustly to a generalized solution. Previous results [1]-[4], indicate that the steady-state network flow equations for an ideal gas are difficult to solve by the Newton-Raphson method because of its extreme sensitivity to the initial guess. In contrast, we find that non-dimensionalization of the steady-state problem is key to robust convergence of the Newton-Raphson method. We identify criteria based on the uniqueness of solutions under which the existence of a non-physical generalized solution found by a non-linear solver implies non-existence of a physical solution, i.e., infeasibility of the problem. Finally, we compare pressure and flow solutions based on ideal and non-ideal equations of state to demonstrate the need to apply the latter in practice. The solver developed in this article is open-source and is made available for both the academic and research communities as well as the industry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computational Math Problems for a Clean Energy Future

Cutting edge computational mathematics are ubiquitous in renewable energy research. Problems in resilient and reliable electric grid operations, infrastructure planning, wind farm yaw control, and more demand sophisticated and scalable computational tools that enable the transition of renewable energy technologies from proof of concept to deployment into our energy system. The mission of the Computational Science Center at NREL is to lead the lab's efforts to solve energy challenges using high-performance computing (HPC), computational science, applied mathematics, scientific data management, visualization, and informatics. In this poster, we provide a short overview of three areas of computational mathematics research at NREL: wind power scenario generation for stochastic grid operations and infrastructure planning, improved rational function approximations for electromagnetic transients codes, and wind farm yaw control using a combination of the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) and reinforcement learning (RL). Increasing penetrations of renewable energy into power grids motivate the investigation of new approaches to characterizing uncertainty for five-minute economic dispatch problems. Similarly, as the penetration of distributed energy resources on power grids increases, it becomes important to revisit our methods of modelling transient phenomena, i.e. electromagnetic transients programs. Finally, the combination of ADMM and RL for wind farm yaw control presented here can potentially increase the efficiency of the deployed distributed controllers by orders of magnitude.

ADMM↗

Residuals-based distributionally robust optimization with covariate information

We consider data-driven approaches that integrate a machine learning prediction model within distributionally robust optimization (DRO) given limited joint observations of uncertain parameters and covariates. Our framework is flexible in the sense that it can accommodate a variety of regression setups and DRO ambiguity sets. We investigate asymptotic and finite sample properties of solutions obtained using Wasserstein, sample robust optimization, and phi-divergence-based ambiguity sets within our DRO formulations, and explore cross-validation approaches for sizing these ambiguity sets. Through numerical experiments, we validate our theoretical results, study the effectiveness of our approaches for sizing ambiguity sets, and illustrate the benefits of our DRO formulations in the limited data regime even when the prediction model is misspecified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Brochure on the 2024 ASCR Workshop on Energy-Efficient Computing for Science

Large-scale computing has enabled numerous scientific discoveries, including ground-breaking achievements facilitated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) supercomputers and advances in applied mathematics and computer science. While important advances were made in energy efficiency to enable exascale computing, continued efforts are needed to dramatically improve the energy efficiency of the next generation of high-performance computing (HPC) systems and, more broadly, AI data centers. Without substantial improvements in energy efficiency, the energy consumption associated with computing could become a limiting factor for future scientific discovery, national security, and technological advancement.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Perspective on Sustainable Computational Chemistry Software Development and Integration

The power of quantum chemistry to predict the ground and excited state properties of complex chemical systems has driven the development of computational quantum chemistry software, integrating advances in theory, applied mathematics, and computer science. The emergence of new computational paradigms associated with exascale technologies also poses significant challenges that require a flexible forward strategy to take full advantage of existing and forthcoming computational resources. In this context, the sustainability and interoperability of computational chemistry software development are among the most pressing issues. In this perspective, we discuss software infrastructure needs and investments with an eye to fully utilize exascale resources and provide unique computational tools for next-generation science problems and scientific discoveries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Viability of Additively Manufactured Electrodes for Lithium-Ion Batteries

As the global economy becomes increasingly electrified, the demand for batteries and energy storage is expected to rise significantly, particularly in the transportation and electricity sectors. Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are currently the most advanced and widely used technology in this field. Traditionally, LIBs are manufactured using simple 2D planar geometries to maximize production efficiency and minimize costs. However, this approach limits energy density due to the restricted design flexibility of the electrodes. Additive manufacturing (AM) offers a promising solution to enhance the energy density and efficiency of LIBs by enabling the design of architectures that reduce diffusive losses and allow for a greater amount of active material to be incorporated within the same device footprint, thereby minimizing the use of inactive materials. Different AM techniques come with their own set of limitations, including printing speed, material compatibility, and scale, which must be considered when designing electrodes. Scalable and cost-effective methods are particularly important for electric vehicle batteries, while achieving higher energy densities in microbatteries is crucial for the miniaturization of wearable electronics and medical devices. Here, in this study, we simulate various 3D porous electrode designs for LIBs using graphite and nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) electrodes. These designs are selected to represent structures that could be produced using different AM techniques, such as direct ink writing, fused deposition modeling, and stereolithography. Our results indicate that at higher charging rates and increased areal mass loading, 3D structures can outperform traditional 2D electrodes, although the benefits may diminish with more complex designs that are harder to manufacture. The observed gains in energy density are attributed to improved electrode utilization and reduced diffusive energy losses. This comprehensive analysis of structure–performance relationships will provide valuable insights to guide future research on 3D designs, material selection, and AM techniques for additively manufactured battery electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A review of non-cognitive applications for neuromorphic computing

Abstract Though neuromorphic computers have typically targeted applications in machine learning and neuroscience (‘cognitive’ applications), they have many computational characteristics that are attractive for a wide variety of computational problems. In this work, we review the current state-of-the-art for non-cognitive applications on neuromorphic computers, including simple computational kernels for composition, graph algorithms, constrained optimization, and signal processing. We discuss the advantages of using neuromorphic computers for these different applications, as well as the challenges that still remain. The ultimate goal of this work is to bring awareness to this class of problems for neuromorphic systems to the broader community, particularly to encourage further work in this area and to make sure that these applications are considered in the design of future neuromorphic systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Error mitigation with Clifford quantum-circuit data

Achieving near-term quantum observables despite significant hardware noise. For this purpose, we propose a novel, scalable error-mitigation method that applies to gate-based quantum computers. The method generates training data { X i noisy , X i exact } via quantum circuits composed largely of Clifford gates, which can be efficiently simulated classically, where X i noisy and X i exact are noisy and noiseless observables respectively. Fitting a linear ansatz to this data then allows for the prediction of noise-free observables for arbitrary circuits. We analyze the performance of our method versus the number of qubits, circuit depth, and number of non-Clifford gates. Here, we obtain an order-of-magnitude error reduction for a ground-state energy problem on 16 qubits in an IBMQ quantum computer and on a 64-qubit noisy simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗