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At least 73 records · Page 4

A Hierarchical Local Electricity Market for a DER-rich Grid Edge

We report with increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) in the distribution system, it is critical to design market structures that enable smooth integration of DERs. A hierarchical local electricity market (LEM) structure is proposed in this paper with a secondary market (SM) at the lower level representing secondary feeders and a primary market (PM) at the upper level, representing primary feeders, in order to effectively use DERs to increase grid efficiency and resilience. The lower level SM enforces budget, power balance, and flexibility constraints and accounts for costs related to consumers, such as their disutility, flexibility limits, and commitment reliability, while the upper level PM enforces grid physics constraints such as power balance and capacity limits, and also minimizes line losses. The hierarchical LEM is extensively evaluated using a modified IEEE-123 bus with high DER penetration, with each primary feeder consisting of at least three secondary feeders. Data from a GridLAB-D model is used to emulate realistic power injections and load profiles over the course of 24 hours. The performance of the LEM is illustrated by delineating the family of power-injection profiles across the primary and secondary feeders as well as corresponding local electricity tariffs that vary across the distribution grid. Through numerical simulations, the hierarchical LEM is shown to improve the efficiency of the market in terms of lowering overall costs, including both the distribution-level locational marginal prices (d-LMP) as well as retail tariffs paid by customers. Together, it represents an overall framework for a Distribution System Operator (DSO) who can provide the oversight for the entire LEM.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Chemolithoautotroph distributions across the subsurface of a convergent margin

Subducting oceanic crusts release fluids rich in biologically relevant compounds into the overriding plate, fueling subsurface chemolithoautotrophic ecosystems. To understand the impact of subsurface geochemistry on microbial communities, we collected fluid and sediments from 14 natural springs across a ~200 km transect across the Costa Rican convergent margin and performed shotgun metagenomics. The resulting 404 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) cluster into geologically distinct regions based on MAG abundance patterns: outer forearc-only (25% of total relative abundance), forearc/arc-only (38% of total relative abundance), and delocalized (37% of total relative abundance) clusters. In the outer forearc, Thermodesulfovibrionia, Candidatus Bipolaricaulia, and Firmicutes have hydrogenotrophic sulfate reduction and Wood-Ljungdahl (WL) carbon fixation pathways. In the forearc/arc, Anaerolineae, Ca. Bipolaricaulia, and Thermodesulfovibrionia have sulfur oxidation, nitrogen cycling, microaerophilic respiration, and WL, while Aquificae have aerobic sulfur oxidation and reverse tricarboxylic acid carbon fixation pathway. Transformation-based canonical correspondence analysis shows that MAG distribution corresponds to concentrations of aluminum, iron, nickel, dissolved inorganic carbon, and phosphate. While delocalized MAGs appear surface-derived, the subsurface chemolithoautotrophic, metabolic, and taxonomic landscape varies by the availability of minerals/metals and volcanically derived inorganic carbon. Furthermore, the WL pathway persists across all samples, suggesting that this versatile, energy-efficient carbon fixation pathway helps shape convergent margin subsurface ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayes classification of terrain cover using normalized polarimetric data

The normalized polarimetric classifier (NPC) which uses only the relative magnitudes and phases of the polarimetric data is proposed for discrimination of terrain elements. The probability density functions (PDFs) of polarimetric data are assumed to have a complex Gaussian distribution, and the marginal PDF of the normalized polarimetric data is derived by adopting the Euclidean norm as the normalization function. The general form of the distance measure for the NPC is also obtained. It is demonstrated that for polarimetric data with an arbitrary PDF, the distance measure of NPC will be independent of the normalization function selected even when the classifier is mistrained. A complex Gaussian distribution is assumed for the polarimetric data consisting of grass and tree regions. The probability of error for the NPC is compared with those of several other single-feature classifiers. The classification error of NPCs is shown to be independent of the normalization function.

Yueh, H. A.↗

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Empirical radius formulas for canonical neutron stars from bidirectionally selecting features of equations of state in extended Bayesian analyses of observational data

Significant advancement in Bayesian inference of nuclear equation of state (EOS) from gravitational wave and x-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) has been made by the nuclear astrophysics community especially since GW170817. By extending the traditional Bayesian analysis which normally ends at presenting the marginalized posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of individual EOS parameters and their correlations (or sometimes only the Pearson correlation coefficients which are only reliably useful when the variables are linearly correlated while they are actually often not), we search for a data-driven and robust empirical formula for the radius 𝑅 1.4 of canonical NSs in terms of the characteristic EOS parameters (features). We also identify the single most important but currently poorly known EOS parameter for determining the 𝑅 1.4 . Using three regression-model-building methodologies: bidirectional stepwise feature selection, least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression, and neural network regression on a large set of posterior EOSs and the corresponding 𝑅 1.4 values inferred from earlier comprehensive Bayesian analyses of NS observational data, we systematically and rigorously develop the most probable 𝑅 1.4 formulas with varying statistical accuracy and technical complexity. Here, the most important EOS parameters for determining 𝑅 1.4 are found consistently in each of the feature selection processes to be (in order of decreasing importance): curvature 𝐾 sym , slope 𝐿, skewness 𝐽 sym of nuclear symmetry energy, skewness 𝐽 0 , incompressibility 𝐾 0 of symmetric nuclear matter, and the magnitude 𝐸 sym ⁡(𝜌 0 ) of symmetry energy at the saturation density 𝜌 0 of nuclear matter.

Bayesian methods↗

A Conceptual Aerospace Vehicle Structural System Modeling, Analysis and Design Process

A process for aerospace structural concept analysis and design is presented, with examples of a blended-wing-body fuselage, a multi-bubble fuselage concept, a notional crew exploration vehicle, and a high altitude long endurance aircraft. Aerospace vehicle structures must withstand all anticipated mission loads, yet must be designed to have optimal structural weight with the required safety margins. For a viable systems study of advanced concepts, these conflicting requirements must be imposed and analyzed early in the conceptual design cycle, preferably with a high degree of fidelity. In this design process, integrated multidisciplinary analysis tools are used in a collaborative engineering environment. First, parametric solid and surface models including the internal structural layout are developed for detailed finite element analyses. Multiple design scenarios are generated for analyzing several structural configurations and material alternatives. The structural stress, deflection, strain, and margins of safety distributions are visualized and the design is improved. Over several design cycles, the refined vehicle parts and assembly models are generated. The accumulated design data is used for the structural mass comparison and concept ranking. The present application focus on the blended-wing-body vehicle structure and advanced composite material are also discussed.

Mukhopadhyay, Vivek↗

Microcanonical Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

We develop Microcanonical Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (MCHMC), a class of models that follow fixed energy Hamiltonian dynamics, in contrast to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), which follows canonical distribution with different energy levels. MCHMC tunes the Hamiltonian function such that the marginal of the uniform distribution on the constant-energy-surface over the momentum variables gives the desired target distribution. We show that MCHMC requires occasional energy-conserving billiard-like momentum bounces for ergodicity, analogous to momentum resampling in HMC. We generalize the concept of bounces to a continuous version with partial direction preserving bounces at every step, which gives energy-conserving underdamped Langevin-like dynamics with non-Gaussian noise (MCLMC). MCHMC and MCLMC exhibit favorable scalings with condition number and dimensionality. We develop an efficient hyperparameter tuning scheme that achieves high performance and consistently outperforms NUTS HMC on several standard benchmark problems, in some cases by orders of magnitude.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quench protection for high-temperature superconductor cables using active control of current distribution

Superconducting magnets of future fusion reactors are expected to rely on composite high-temperature superconductor (HTS) cable conductors. In presently used HTS cables, current sharing between components is limited due to poorly defined contact resistances between superconducting tapes or by design. The interplay between contact and termination resistances is the defining factor for power dissipation in these cables and ultimately defines their safe operational margins. However, the current distribution between components along the composite conductor and inside its terminations is a priori unknown, and presently, no means are available to actively tune current flow distribution in real-time to improve margins of quench protection. Also, the lack of ability to electrically probe individual components makes it impossible to identify conductor damage locations within the cable. In this work, we address both problems by introducing active current control of current distribution between components using cryogenically operated metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect transistors (MOSFETs). We demonstrate through simulation and experiments how real-time current controls can help to drastically reduce heat dissipation in a developing hot spot in a two-conductor model system and help identify critical current degradation of individual cable components. Finally, prospects of other potential uses of MOSFET devices for improved voltage detection, AC loss-driven active quench protection, and remnant magnetization reduction in HTS magnets are also discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Electrical Resistivity Tomography Monitoring of In Situ Soil Flushing at the Hanford 100-K East Area: 100KE Soil Flushing Monitoring

Former operations in the 100-KE Area at the Hanford Site resulted in vadose zone hexavalent chromium that provides a source of groundwater contamination. Previous efforts to remediate vadose zone chromium involved excavation and offsite treatment of contaminated soils. Although much of the chromium was removed, contamination still exists in native soil between the water table and the bottom of the pit, which has since been backfilled. In-situ soil flushing was tested at the 100-KE Area to accelerate the removal of the remaining hexavalent chromium in the vadose zone. Soil flushing works by applying clean flush water at the surface, which mobilizes and transports chromium as it migrates downward to the water table. Once the chromium reaches the water table, it is hydraulically contained, extracted, and treated through pump and treat operations. The efficacy of soil flushing is directly related to the volume of clean water that infiltrates through contaminated soils. Therefore, performance monitoring requires and understanding of flush water migration through the vadose zone. It is challenging to comprehensively assess soil flushing performance via borehole access due to the limited volume of investigation afforded by a given wellbore. As an alternative, 3D time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was tested as a method of monitoring the distribution of flush water over time within the vadose zone. ERT is a method of imaging the bulk electrical conductivity of the subsurface, which is highly dependent on water saturation levels in unconsolidated and unsaturated sediments. Thus, the timing and location of changes in bulk conductivity caused by soil flushing can be used to infer flush water migration pathways. In this report we present results of 3D time-lapse ERT imaging during two separate soil flushing campaigns conducted during the spring and summer months of 2022 and 2023. Results show generally that: 1) Pit backfill materials appear to nominally have larger permeability than native soils. Consequently, the boundary between pit backfill and native soil had a significant impact on flush water migration, causing some flush water to migrate along the pit boundary to the bottom of the pit. 2) Non-uniform flows, likely caused by variations in hydrogeologic properties, developed in the pit backfill materials, resulting in uneven flush water distribution on the southern margin of the soil flushing zone. 3) Redistribution of water at the interface between backfill materials and Hanford formation materials likely facilitated elevated and uniform distribution of flush water within native soils beneath the deeper parts of the pit boundary beneath the center of the flush zone, which presumably overlie soils with elevated chromium contamination. These areas appear to have been infiltrated by higher volumes of flush water than the northern and southern margins of the flush zone. 4) In comparison to 2022, high flush water application rates significantly improved flush water distribution throughout the target flushing zone. 5) Imaging resolution was limited to a depth of approximate 20 meters below the land surface, due primarily to limitations on the lateral extent of the surface ERT array. The ~10 m region of the vadose zone between approximately 130 meters elevation and the water table at approximately 120 meters elevation was unresolved.

100 Area↗

Spectrophotometry of Michigan-Tololo quasars

Emission-line quasar characteristics are confirmed for 80% of the objects observed, including at least four new quasars with spectral features indicative of supernova-like outflow. Approximately 73% of the redshifts predicted from the discovery plates are found accurate with a mean error in z of 0.03, and a large range of z (from about 0.1 to 3.16) is represented in the sample. The observed redshift distribution for quasars is marginally consistent with a constant co-moving quasar density above z approximately 2.0. The shape of the redshift distribution may be used as an isotropy probe with a cosmic time resolution of a few times one-hundred million years in the early universe; therefore, continued surveys of this sort are important even if accurate magnitudes are not determined.

Lewis, D. W.↗

Variability and Trends in the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Results from Different Techniques

Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at negative 3.88 percent decade and negative 4.37 percent decade, respectively, compared to an average of negative 4.36 percent decade and negative 4.57 percent decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.

Arctic↗

L'CO/LFIR Relations with CO Rotational Ladders of Galaxies Across the Herschel SPIRE Archive

We present a catalog of all CO (carbon monoxide) (J (total angular momentum quantum number) equals 1-0 through J equals 13-12), [CI], and [NII] lines available from extragalactic spectra from the Herschel SPIRE (Spectral and Photometric Imaging Receiver) Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) archive combined with observations of the low-J CO lines from the literature and from the Arizona Radio Observatory. This work examines the relationships between L (sub FIR (Far Infra Red)), L prime (sub CO), and L (sub CO) / L (sub CO, 1-0). We also present a new method for estimating probability distribution functions (PDFs) from marginal signal-to-noise ratio Herschel FTS spectra, which takes into account the instrumental "ringing" and the resulting highly correlated nature of the spectra. The slopes of Log (L (sub FIR)) versus Log (L prime (sub CO)) are linear for all mid- to high-J CO lines. The mid- to high-J CO luminosity relative to CO J equals 1-0 increases with increasing L (sub FIR), indicating higher excitement of the molecular gas, though these ratios do not exceed approximately 100. The luminosities relative to CO J equals 1-0 remain relatively at from J equals 6-5 through J equals13-2, across many orders of magnitude of L (sub FIR). Qualitative comparisons to current theoretical models do not match these flat SLED (spectral line energy distributions) shapes, indicating the need for more comprehensive modeling of the excitation processes of warm molecular gas in nearby galaxies.

Submillimeter Data↗

Endogenous Interface Pricing for Consistent Transmission–Distribution Co-Optimization With Discrete Distribution Controls

This paper proposes an endogenous interface pricing model for day-ahead transmission–distribution co-optimization that co-determines the interface locational marginal price (LMP) and the transmission–distribution exchange, ensuring price–dispatch consistency while optimally scheduling discrete distribution controls. The formulation couples a DC optimal power flow (OPF) with a branch-flow AC OPF that schedules distributed energy resources (DERs), tap-changer settings, capacitor banks (CBs), and multi-period energy storage systems (ESSs) under feeder voltage and current limits, and is solved as a mixed-integer second-order cone program (MISOCP). In a T14–D33 system, coordinated device scheduling recovers about 90% of the distribution-to-transmission export achievable in a reference case that ignores distribution network (DN) limits, while satisfying a 1.05 p.u. voltage upper bound. In a T39–D34/D37/D123 system, a sequential decoupled benchmark produces interface LMP distortions up to 12.5% and a 7.28% mismatch in net export energy, whereas the proposed model removes these distortions and the associated settlement mismatches. Second-order cone (SOC) relaxation gaps remain below $10^{-3}$ in all cases.

Noh, Seung-Gil↗

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Testing and signal identification for two-sample high-dimensional covariances via multi-level thresholding

The paper considers testing and signal identification for covariance matrices from two populations of marginally sub-Gaussian distributed. A multi-level thresholding procedure is proposed for testing the equality of two high-dimensional covariance matrices, which is designed to detect sparse and faint differences between the covariances. A novel -statistic composition is developed to establish the asymptotic distribution of the thresholding statistics in conjunction with the matrix blocking and the coupling techniques. It is shown that the proposed test is more powerful than the existing tests in detecting sparse and weak signals in covariances. Multiple testing procedures are constructed to discover different covariances and the sub-groups of variables with different covariance structures between the two populations. The proposed procedures are based on the multi-level thresholding test, which are able to control the false discovery proportion () with high power. Simulation experiments and a case study on the returns of the S&P 500 stocks before and after the COVID-19 pandemic are conducted to demonstrate and compare the utilities of the proposed methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗