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DOE OSTI2023

Completeness of the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) Local Volume Sample

We introduce the NASA/IPAC Extragalactic Database (NED) Local Volume Sample (NED-LVS), a subset of ~1.9 million objects with distances out to 1000 Mpc. We use UV and IR fluxes available in NED from all-sky surveys to derive physical properties, and estimate the completeness relative to the expected local luminosity density. The completeness relative to near-IR luminosities (which traces a galaxy's stellar mass) is roughly 100% at D < 30 Mpc and remains moderate (70%) out to 300 Mpc. For brighter galaxies (≳L * ), NED-LVS is ~100% complete out to ~400 Mpc. When compared to other local Universe samples (GLADE and HECATE), all three are ~100% complete below 30 Mpc. At distances beyond ~80 Mpc, NED-LVS is more complete than both GLADE and HECATE by ~10%–20%. NED-LVS is the underlying sample for the NED gravitational-wave follow-up service (NED-GWF), which provides prioritized lists of host candidates for GW events within minutes of alerts issued by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA collaboration. We test the prioritization of galaxies in the volume of GW170817 by three physical properties, where we find that both stellar mass and inverse specific star formation rate place the correct host galaxy in the top 10. In addition, NED-LVS can be used for a wide variety of other astrophysical studies: galaxy evolution, star formation, large-scale structure, galaxy environments, and more. The data in NED are updated regularly, and NED-LVS will be updated concurrently. Consequently, NED-LVS will continue to provide an increasingly complete sample of galaxies for a multitude of astrophysical research areas for years to come.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

CATS: The Hubble Constant from Standardized TRGB and Type Ia Supernova Measurements

The tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) provides a luminous standard candle for constructing distance ladders to measure the Hubble constant. In practice, its measurements via edge-detection response (EDR) are complicated by the apparent fuzziness of the tip and the multipeak landscape of the EDR. Previously, we optimized an unsupervised algorithm, Comparative Analysis of TRGBs, to minimize the variance among multiple halo fields per host without relying on individualized choices, achieving state-of-the-art ~<0.05 mag distance measures for optimal data. Here we apply this algorithm to an expanded sample of SN Ia hosts to standardize these to multiple fields in the geometric anchor, NGC 4258. In concert with the Pantheon+ SN Ia sample, this analysis produces a (baseline) result of H 0 = 73.22 ± 2.06 km s -1 Mpc -1 . The largest difference in H 0 between this and similar studies employing the TRGB derives from corrections for SN survey differences and local flows used in the most recent SN Ia compilations that were absent in earlier studies. The SN-related differences total ~2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 . A smaller share, ~1.4 km s -1 Mpc -1 , results from the inhomogeneity of the TRGB calibration across the distance ladder. We employ a grid of 108 variants around the optimal TRGB algorithm and find that the median of the variants is 72.94 ± 1.98 km s -1 Mpc -1 with an additional uncertainty due to algorithm choices of 0.83 km s -1 Mpc -1 . None of these TRGB variants result in an H 0 of less than 71.6 km s -1 Mpc -1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Prime Time for Model-Predictive Control? Assessing the Technical and Market Readiness of Advanced Controls in Buildings

Despite three decades of extensive research and field testing that have consistently validated the benefits of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in building applications, the technology has seen limited market adoption. This paper evaluates the readiness of MPC for widespread deployment, showcases recent demonstrations and field tests across diverse building types, including residential, small commercial, large commercial, and campus settings. Our results demonstrate that MPC can optimize system operations to achieve load shifting, minimize curtailment of on-site generation, and reduce energy costs by up to 80 %, while maintaining or improving occupant comfort. We also show that MPC can effectively control large assets, such as MW-sized thermal storage systems, and respond to dynamic pricing signals. However, achieving scale remains difficult due to labor-intensive workflows, reliance on a “PhD-in-the-loop” for MPC design and maintenance, susceptibility to fragile data infrastructure, and persistent workforce education and acceptance barriers. To bridge this gap, we outline a transition from bespoke, labor intensive prototypes toward streamlined, segment-targeted deployment strategies that leverage model templates, semantic tools, and generative AI. By automating control configuration and reducing engineering effort, these recommendations provide a pathway for transforming successful research demonstrations into scalable, market ready solutions for MPC-based controls.

Pritoni, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encrypted model predictive control design for security to cyberattacks

Abstract In recent years, cyber‐security of networked control systems has become crucial, as these systems are vulnerable to targeted cyberattacks that compromise the stability, integrity, and safety of these systems. In this work, secure and private communication links are established between sensor–controller and controller–actuator elements using semi‐homomorphic encryption to ensure cyber‐security in model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear systems. Specifically, Paillier cryptosystem is implemented for encryption‐decryption operations in the communication links. Cryptosystems, in general, work on a subset of integers. As a direct consequence of this nature of encryption algorithms, quantization errors arise in the closed‐loop MPC of nonlinear systems. Thus, the closed‐loop encrypted MPC is designed with a certain degree of robustness to the quantization errors. Furthermore, the trade‐off between the accuracy of the encrypted MPC and the computational cost is discussed. Finally, two chemical process examples are employed to demonstrate the implementation of the proposed encrypted MPC design.

Suryavanshi, Atharva↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for demand flexibility: Real-world operation of a commercial building with photovoltaic and battery systems

Hundreds of studies have investigated Model Predictive Control (MPC) for the optimal operation of building energy systems in the past two decades. However, MPC field tests are still uncommon, especially for small- and medium-sized commercial buildings and for buildings integrated with onsite renewables. This paper describes the implementation and the long-term performance evaluation of an MPC controller in a small commercial building equipped with behind-the-meter photovoltaics and electrochemical batteries. MPC controls space conditioning, commercial refrigeration, and the battery system. We tested two types of demand flexibility applications in the field: electricity bill minimization under time-of-use tariffs and responses to grid flexibility events. Results show that the proposed controller achieves 12% of annual electricity cost savings and 34% peak demand reduction against the baseline, while respecting thermal comfort and food safety. The field tests also demonstrate the ability of the MPC controller to provide a multitude of grid services including real-time pricing, demand limiting, load shedding, load shifting, and load tracking, using the same optimization framework.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development and assessment of a model predictive controller enabling anticipatory control strategies for a heat-pipe system

To support the reliable and resilient operation of modular reactors and microreactors, anticipatory control strategies have been proposed for achieving faster-than-real-time predictions and decision-making capabilities in anticipation of potential anomalies, including setpoint changes and cyber incidents. Here this work presents how anticipatory control strategies can be implemented via model predictive control (MPC) of a single heat pipe’s temperature. Considering the uncertainty in developing and applying MPC, this work evaluates MPC performance given three different model forms: a linear response surface model, an artificial neural network (ANN), and an autoregressive model with exogenous input (ARX). This work also evaluates the impacts of different input biases and variance on MPC performance in order to account for potential sensor reading variations due to cyber incidents. We observe that nonparametric models such as the ANN and ARX result in more fluctuated control actions compared to the MPC applied to the linear response surface model. However, when the cyber incidents are of a large magnitude, the linear response surface model produces smaller feasible regions than the nonparametric models under identical constraints.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A 5 per cent measurement of the Hubble–Lemaître constant from Type II supernovae

ABSTRACT The most stringent local measurement of the Hubble–Lemaître constant from Cepheid-calibrated Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) differs from the value inferred via the cosmic microwave background radiation (Planck+ΛCDM) by ∼5σ. This so-called Hubble tension has been confirmed by other independent methods, and thus does not appear to be a possible consequence of systematic errors. Here, we continue upon our prior work of using Type II supernovae to provide another, largely independent method to measure the Hubble–Lemaître constant. From 13 SNe II with geometric, Cepheid, or tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) host-galaxy distance measurements, we derive H$_0= 75.4^{+3.8}_{-3.7}$ km s−1 Mpc−1 (statistical errors only), consistent with the local measurement but in disagreement by ∼2.0σ with the Planck+ΛCDM value. Using only Cepheids (N = 7), we find H$_0 = 77.6^{+5.2}_{-4.8}$ km s−1 Mpc−1, while using only TRGB (N = 5), we derive H$_0 = 73.1^{+5.7}_{-5.3}$ km s−1 Mpc−1. Via 13 variants of our data set, we derive a systematic uncertainty estimate of 1.5 km s−1 Mpc−1. The median value derived from these variants differs by just 0.3 km s−1 Mpc−1 from that produced by our fiducial model. Because we only replace SNe Ia with SNe II – and we do not find statistically significant difference between the Cepheid and TRGB H0 measurements – our work reveals no indication that SNe Ia or Cepheids could be the sources of the ‘H0 tension.’ We caution, however, that our conclusions rest upon a modest calibrator sample; as this sample grows in the future, our results should be verified.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Model Predictive Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature Inside Plug-Flow Solar Reactor With Countercurrent Flow

Abstract Solar-driven thermochemical energy storage systems are proven to be promising energy carriers (solar fuels) to utilize solar energy by using reactive solid-state pellets. However, the production of solar fuel requires a quasi-steady-state process temperature, which represents the main challenge due to the transient nature of solar power. In this work, an adaptive model predictive controller (MPC) is presented to regulate the temperature inside a tubular solar reactor to produce solid-state solar fuel for long-term thermal storage systems. The solar reactor system consists of a vertical tube heated circumferentially over a segment of its length by concentrated solar power, and the reactive pellets (MgMn2O4) are fed from the top end and flow downwards through the heated tube. A countercurrent flowing gas supplied from the lower end interacts with flowing pellets to reduce it thermochemically at a temperature range of 1000—1500 °C. A low-order physical model was developed to simulate the dynamics of the solar reactor including the reaction kinetics, and the proposed model was validated numerically by using a 7-kW electric furnace. The numerical model then was utilized to design the MPC controller, where the control system consists of an MPC code linked to an adaptive system identification code that updates system parameters online to ensure system robustness against external disturbances (sudden change in the flow inside the reactor), model mismatches, and uncertainty. The MPC controller parameters are tuned to enhance the system performance with minimum steady-state error and overshoot. The controller is tested to track different temperature ranges between 500 °C and 1400 °C with different particles/gas mass flowrates and ramping temperature profiles. Results show that the MPC controller successfully regulated the reactor temperature within ± 1 °C of its setpoint and maintained robust performance with minimum input effort when subjected to sudden changes in the amount of flowing media and the presence of chemical reaction.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparative analysis of model-free and model-based HVAC control for residential demand response

In this paper, we present a comparative analysis of model-free reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) approaches for intelligent control of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC). Deep-Q-network (DQN) is used as a candidate for model-free RL algorithm. The two control strategies were developed for residential demand-response (DR) HVAC system. We considered MPC as our golden standard to compare DQN's performance. The question we tried to answer through this work was, What % of MPC's performance can be achieved by model-free RL approach for intelligent HVAC control?. Based on our test result, RL achieved an average of ≈ 62% daily cost saving of MPC. Considering the pure optimization and model-based nature of MPC methods, the RL showed very promising performance. We believe that the interpretations derived from this comparative analysis provide useful insights to choose from various DR approaches and further enhance the performance of the RL-based methods for building energy managements.

Kurte, Kuldeep↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical multi-time-scale predictive thermal management and fuel optimization for heavy-duty compression ignition engines

For heavy-duty diesel engines, NO X emissions reduction is strongly constrained by fuel efficiency. This paper presents a hierarchical model predictive controller (H-MPC) for coordinated control of tailpipe NO X emissions and fuel consumption. The H-MPC uses the separation of slow and fast dynamics that exist in the engine and its aftertreatment system. The controller is synthesized with an architecture in which a high-level MPC uses a longer prediction horizon compared to the low-level predictive controller which tracks the high-level controller command and manages the thermal dynamics of the aftertreatment system. Engine load preview enables the high-level controller to estimate the desired catalyst temperature ahead of time and addresses the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) slow thermal dynamics. Calculated by the high-level controller, the intake manifold pressure, and the start of injection (SOI) crank angle is used as reference trajectories in the low-level controller that regulates fast dynamical behaviors such as engine out NO X emissions. Hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) validation of this integrated H-MPC on a rapid prototype controller shows that when the SCR catalyst temperature is above light-off temperature (warmed-up condition), the engine operation is shifted to operate with the best fuel economy since the warmed-up SCR can efficiently reduce the engine-out NO X emissions. Results indicate that up to 0.8% benefit in cycle averaged BSFC along with a 13% reduction in tailpipe NO X compared to a stock engine calibration can be achieved with the coordinated engine and aftertreatment system through H-MPC.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Remaining Life Prediction of SNF Storage Canisters Exposed to CISCC Environments

• DOE Standardized SNF Storage Canisters o DOE designed standard spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage canisters for storage of DOE SNF. o DOE canisters are significantly different from commercial MultiPurpose Canisters (MPC) in size. o MPC canisters are large, a height = 15.8 ft, OD = 68”, WT = 0.5”. o DOE canisters are small with 18” / 24” diameter, 10’ / 15’ length. • Integrity Evaluation of DOE versus MPC Canisters o Many investigations have been performed for MPC canisters. o Limit investigations were performed for DOE standard canisters. Most were done at Idaho National Lab (INL). o DOE has sponsored integrity studies to evaluate weld integrity using drop tests and FEA simulations. o No evaluation on CISCC/service life of DOE canister in literature. o MPC canister: 4 axial welds, 1 center girth weld, 2 closing welds.

ZHU, Xiankui↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model predictive control for robust quantum state preparation

A critical engineering challenge in quantum technology is the accurate control of quantum dynamics. Model-based methods for optimal control have been shown to be highly effective when theory and experiment closely match. Consequently, realizing high-fidelity quantum processes with model-based control requires careful device characterization. In quantum processors based on cold atoms, the Hamiltonian can be well-characterized. For superconducting qubits operating at milli-Kelvin temperatures, the Hamiltonian is not as well-characterized. Unaccounted for physics (i.e., mode discrepancy), coherent disturbances, and increased noise compromise traditional model-based control. This work introduces model predictive control (MPC) for quantum control applications. MPC is a closed-loop optimization framework that (i) inherits a natural degree of disturbance rejection by incorporating measurement feedback, (ii) utilizes finite-horizon model-based optimizations to control complex multi-input, multi-output dynamical systems under state and input constraints, and (iii) is flexible enough to develop synergistically alongside other modern control strategies. We show how MPC can be used to generate practical optimized control sequences in representative examples of quantum state preparation. Specifically, we demonstrate for a qubit, a weakly-anharmonic qubit, and a system undergoing crosstalk, that MPC can realize successful model-based control even when the model is inadequate. These examples showcase why MPC is an important addition to the quantum engineering control suite.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Galaxy Alignments with Surrounding Structure in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

Using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Legacy Survey, we study the alignment of luminous galaxies with spectroscopic data with the surrounding larger-scale structure as defined by galaxies with only photometric data. We find that galaxies from the red sequence have a statistically significant tendency for their apparent long axes to align parallel to the projected surrounding structure. Red galaxies more luminous than the median of our sample (M r < –21.78) have a mean alignment angle $\langle$Φ$\rangle$ < 45°, indicating preferred parallel alignment, at a significance level >4.5σ on projected scales 0.1 Mpc < r p ≤ 7.5 Mpc. Fainter red galaxies have $\langle$Φ$\rangle$ < 45° at a significance level >4.3σ at scales 1 Mpc < r p < 3 Mpc. At a projected scale r p = 3.0 Mpc, the mean alignment angle decreases steadily with increasing luminosity for red galaxies with M r ≲ –22.5, reaching $\langle$Φ$\rangle$ = 40$^{°}_{.}$49 ± 0$^{°}_{.}$56 for the most luminous 1% (M r ~ –23.57). Galaxies from the blue sequence show no statistically significant tendency for their axes to align with larger-scale structure, regardless of galaxy luminosity. Galaxies in higher-density regions do not show a statistically significant difference in the mean alignment angle from galaxies in lower-density regions; this holds true for the faint blue, luminous blue, faint red, and luminous red subsets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control for a Grid-interactive Efficient Thermal Storage-integrated Heat Pump System

Building heating and cooling systems can be used to overcome the mismatch between the intermittent supply of renewable power and the fluctuating demand for electricity. A novel underground thermal energy storage integrated with a dual-source heat pump has been proposed to mitigate the mismatch while meeting the thermal demand of buildings efficiently. Conventional thermostat control with heuristic rules cannot provide intelligent decisions to maximize the thermal efficiency and flexibility of the proposed system. Advanced control strategies like model predictive control (MPC) have provided a new paradigm for grid-interactive efficient building operation with the advancement of computation and sensing. This study developed an MPC for the proposed system to provide grid service for Demand Side Management and minimize the operating cost of building owners. A control-oriented dynamic model of the proposed system has been developed. Given an objective function and proper constraints, an optimization problem is formulated to determine the optimal control strategy of the system. Dynamic Programming is adopted to solve the optimization problem. A rule-based control (RBC) is also developed to achieve similar goals. Short-term simulations are conducted to compare the system performance resulting from the two controls. The simulation results indicate that the MPC performs more intelligently than the RBC in charging thermal energy storage and selecting heat pump sources by taking advantage of the predicted cooling demands of the building and the performance of the integrated system. As a result, the MPC could save energy and reduce operating costs compared with the RBC. A case study shows that, for a 3-day operation, the MPC saves 36.9% energy and reduces 38.5% operating cost compared with the RBC.

Shi, Liang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonization of heat pump dual fuel systems using a practical model predictive control: Field demonstration in a small commercial building

In the transition from fossil fuel to electrified heating, a concerning trend is emerging in certain regions of the US. Owners of buildings with gas-based systems leave them in place after adding heat pumps (HPs). Existing control solutions for these hybrid (dual fuel) systems are rudimentary and fall short of realizing the full carbon reduction potential of these systems. Model predictive control (MPC) is often regarded as the benchmark for achieving optimal control in integrated systems. However, in the case of small-medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), the control and communication infrastructure required to facilitate the implementation of such advanced controls is often lacking. This paper presents a field implementation of easy-to-deploy MPC for a dual fuel heating system consisting of HPs and a gas-fired furnace (GF) for SMCBs. The control system is deployed on an open-source middleware platform and utilizes low-cost sensor devices to be used for real SMCBs without major retrofits. Here, we demonstrated this MPC in a real office building with 5 HPs and 1 GF for 2 months. The test results showed that MPC reduced 27% of cost while completely eliminating GF usage by shifting 23% of the thermal load from occupied-peak time to non-occupied-non-peak times.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Influence of Mesoscale Particle Structure on the Electrode Degradation and Resultant Electrochemistry of Lithium Ion Cells With Nickel Rich Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide Positive Electrodes

Nickel-rich lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide, NMC (LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 ), materials are desirable positive electrodes in lithium ion batteries, providing high capacity and energy density. The mesoscale structure of NMC materials is commonly a polycrystalline aggregate, providing opportunity for short lithium ion transport distance of the small primary particles, yet facile material handling due to the larger secondary particles. On (de)lithiation the NMC unit cell changes volume, where the anisotropic strain can result in secondary particle fracture. This secondary particle fracture process during cycling has been associated with several degradation modes of NMC materials in LIBs. In this work, a milling process was determined whereby the secondary particles could be pre-fractured with retention of the parent primary particle crystallographic structure, crystallite size, and morphology, providing the ability to unambiguously determine the influence of NMC secondary particle size and mesostructure on resultant functional behavior. The bulk and interfacial properties and electrochemistry of as-received commercially obtained polycrystal NMC811 (LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 , PC NMC) and its milled MPC NMC counterpart were compared. The smaller secondary particle size, higher surface area MPC NMC was found to result in 1) greater cathode tortuosity, 2) reduced surface Ni on the cycled MPC cathodes consistent with surface reconstruction, and 3) increased Ni deposition on the anodes from cathode-anode crosstalk. These factors manifested in unfavorable electrochemical behavior of MPC with lower functional capacity at both 1C and C/10 rates and higher impedance over extended moderate voltage (dis)charge cycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗