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66 records · Page 4

Floods of Egypt’s Nile in the 21st century

Extreme precipitation and flooding events are rising globally, necessitating a thorough understanding and sustainable management of water resources. One such setting is the Nile River’s source areas, where high precipitation has led to the filling of Lake Nasser (LN) twice (1998–2003; 2019–2022) in the last two decades and the diversion of overflow to depressions west of the Nile, where it is lost mainly to evaporation. Using temporal satellite-based data, climate models, and continuous rainfall-runoff models, we identified the primary contributor to increased runoff that reached LN in the past two decades and assessed the impact of climate change on the LN’s runoff throughout the twenty-first century. Findings include: (1) the Blue Nile subbasin (BNS) is the primary contributor to increased downstream runoff, (2) the BNS runoff was simulated in the twenty-first century using a calibrated (1965–1992) rainfall-runoff model with global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4, HadGEM3, and GFDL-CM4.0, projections as model inputs, (3) the extreme value analysis for projected runoff driven by GCMs’ output indicates extreme floods are more severe in the twenty-first century, (4) one adaptation for the projected twenty-first century increase in precipitation (25–39%) and flood (2%-20%) extremes is to recharge Egypt’s fossil aquifers during high flood years.

Climate change↗

Overview of Collaborative Research Between UNICAMP in Brazil and Fermilab in Cryogenics

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility (LBNF) situated at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, serves as the host for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), employing cryostats with nearly 70,000 metric tons of high purity liquid argon (LAr). The integrity of LAr quality is pivotal in determining the electron lifetime within DUNE, directly impacting its signal-to-noise ratio. Specifically, Far Detector 1 (FD-1) in cryostat 1 requires an electron lifetime over 3 ms within its 3.5 m drift, corresponding to less than 100 parts-per-trillion (ppt) Oxygen equivalent contamination. Far Detector 2 (FD-2) in cryostat 2 demands over 6 ms electron lifetime within its 6.0 m drift, corresponding to less than 50 ppt Oxygen equivalent contamination. Nitrogen (N2) absorption of LAr scintillation light, known as quenching, necessitates N2 contamination in LAr to remain below 1 ppm to minimize photon loss and enhance energy reconstruction. Studies indicate that at 1 ppm N2, approximately 20% of scintillation light is lost, highlighting the importance of minimizing N2 contamination. Brazil State University of Campinas's (UNICAMP) contribution to LBNF focuses on developing argon purification and regeneration for DUNE FD-1 and FD-2. To that effect, they constructed a test facility to perform studies on LAr purification at a smaller scale, the Purification Liquid Argon Cryostat (PuLArC) with approximately 90 liters of LAr. One of the filtration materials was considered and tested Li-FAU molecular sieve. Value engineering on argon purification media was conducted, leading to the identification of Li-FAU zeolite's ability to effectively capture N2 impurities during LAr circulation. Testing at UNICAMP's PuLArC facility demonstrated that 1 kg of Li-FAU is capable of reducing N2 contamination from 20-50 ppm to 0.1-1.0 ppm within 1-2 hours of circulation. In October 2023, testing at the Iceberg cryostat in Fermilab's Noble Liquid Test Facility (NLTF), with approximately 2,625 liters of LAr, confirmed the efficacy of 3 kg of Li-FAU in reducing N2 contamination from ~ 5 ppm of injected N2 down to less than 1 ppm over 96-hour cycles, showcasing its potential for larger-scale LAr cryostats. Further tests are planned to validate Li-FAU's use as a possible alternative to Molecular Sieve 4A in LBNF-DUNE and related liquid argon experiments. This contribution will describe how the research was performed and present the test setups and results in detail. This advancement not only has the potential to enhance DUNE's precision but also to elevate liquid argon experiments globally, showcasing the power of international scientific collaboration.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Scientific Impacts of Wind Direction Errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (less than 45 deg) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (less than 7 m/s ) conditions was made. averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder high- latitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean's function in modifying Earth's climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Nino episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3-5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Scientific impacts of wind direction errors

An assessment on the scientific impact of random errors in wind direction (< 45°) retrieved from space-based observations under weak wind (< 7 m/s) conditions was made. Half of the winds over global oceans are below 7 m/s, in their long-term averages, and these weak winds cover most of the tropical, sub-tropical, and coastal oceans. Introduction of these errors in the semi-daily winds causes, on average, 5% changes of the yearly mean Ekman and Sverdrup volume transports computed directly from the winds, respectively. These poleward movements of water are the main mechanisms to redistribute heat from the warmer tropical region to the colder highlatitude regions, and they are the major manifestations of the ocean’s function in modifying Earth’s climate. Simulation by an ocean general circulation model shows that the wind errors introduce a 5% error in the meridional heat transport at tropical latitudes. The simulation also shows that the erroneous winds cause a pile-up of warm surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific, similar to the conditions during El Niño episode. Similar wind directional errors cause significant change in sea-surface temperature and sea-level patterns in coastal oceans in a coastal model simulation. Previous studies have shown that assimilation of scatterometer winds improves 3–5 day weather forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere. When directional information below 7 m/s was withheld, approximately 40% of the improvement was lost.

Atlas, Robert↗

A simulation analysis of the fate of phytoplankton within the mid-Atlantic bight

A time-dependent, three-dimensional simulation model of wind-induced changes of the circulation field, of light and nutrient regulation of photosynthesis, of vertical mixing as well as algal sinking, and of herbivore grazing stress, is used to analyze the seasonal production, consumption, and transport of the spring bloom within the mid-Atlantic Bight. The particular case (c) of a 58-day period in February-April 1979, simulated primary production, based on both nitrate and recycled nitrogen, with a mean of 0.62 g C sq m/day over the whole model domain, and an export at the shelf-break off Long Island of 2.60 g ch1 sq m/day within the lower third of the water column. About 57% of the carbon fixation was removed by herbivores, with 21% lost as export, either downshelf or offshore to slope waters, after the first 58 days of the spring bloom. Extension of the model for another 22 days of case (c) increased the mean export to 27%, while variation of the model's parameters in 8 other cases led to a range in export from 8% to 38% of the average primary production. Spatial and temporal variations of the simulated albal biomass, left behind in the shelf water column, reproduced chlorophyll fields sensed by satellite, shipboard, and in situ instruments.

Walsh, J. J.↗

Energy Transport in the Thermosphere During the Solar Storms of April 2002

The dramatic solar storm events of April 2002 deposited a large amount of energy into the Earth's upper atmosphere, substantially altering the thermal structure, the chemical composition, the dynamics, and the radiative environment. We examine the flow of energy within the thermosphere during this storm period from the perspective of infrared radiation transport and heat conduction. Observations from the SABER instrument on the TIMED satellite are coupled with computations based on the ASPEN thermospheric general circulation model to assess the energy flow. The dominant radiative response is associated with dramatically enhanced infrared emission from nitric oxide at 5.3 microns from which a total of approx. 7.7 x 10(exp 23) ergs of energy are radiated during the storm. Energy loss rates due to NO emission exceed 2200 Kelvin per day. In contrast, energy loss from carbon dioxide emission at 15 microns is only approx. 2.3% that of nitric oxide. Atomic oxygen emission at 63 microns is essentially constant during the storm. Energy loss from molecular heat conduction may be as large as 3.8% of the NO emission. These results confirm the "natural thermostat" effect of nitric oxide emission as the primary mechanism by which storm energy is lost from the thermosphere below 210 km.

SOLAR STORMS↗

Warm-Core Intensification Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports into the Eye

The mechanism for the formation and intensification of the hurricane warm core is not well understood. The generally accepted explanation is that the warm core forms as a result of gentle subsidence of air within the eye that warms as a result of adiabatic compression. Malkus suggested that this subsidence is part of a deep circulation in which air begins descent at high levels in the eye, acquires cyclonic angular momentum as it descends to lower levels, and then diverges at low levels, where it is entrained back into the eyewall. Inward mixing from the eyewall is hypothesized to force the subsidence and maintain the moisture and momentum budgets of the subsiding air. Willoughby suggested that air within the eye has remained so since it was first enclosed during the formation of the eyewall and that it subsides at most only a few kilometers rather than through the depth of the troposphere. He relates the subsidence to the low-level divergence and entrainment into the eyewall noted by Malkus, but suggests that shrinkage of the eye's volume is more than adequate to account for the air lost to the eyewall or converted to cloudy air by turbulent mixing across the eye boundary. Smith offered an alternative view of the subsidence forcing, suggesting that vertical motion in a mature hurricane eye is generated largely by imbalances between the downward vertical pressure gradient force and the upward buoyancy force. The vertical pressure gradient force is associated with the decay and/or radial spread of the tangential wind field with height at those levels were the winds are in approximate gradient wind balance. The rate of subsidence is just that required to warm the air sufficiently such that the buoyancy remains in close hydrostatic balance with an increasing vertical pressure gradient force. In this study, a very high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bob using a cloud-resolving grid scale of 1.3 km is used to examine the heat budget within the storm with particular emphasis on the mechanisms for warming of the eye.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Hawaii Ocean Mixing Experiment: Program Summary

It is becoming apparent that insufficient mixing occurs in the pelagic ocean to maintain the large scale thermohaline circulation. Observed mixing rates fall a factor of ten short of classical indices such as Munk's "Abyssal Recipe." The growing suspicion is that most of the mixing in the sea occurs near topography. Exciting recent observations by Polzin et al., among others, fuel this speculation. If topographic mixing is indeed important, it must be acknowledged that its geographic distribution, both laterally and vertically, is presently unknown. The vertical distribution of mixing plays a critical role in the Stommel Arons model of the ocean interior circulation. In recent numerical studies, Samelson demonstrates the extreme sensitivity of flow in the abyssal ocean to the spatial distribution of mixing. We propose to study the topographic mixing problem through an integrated program of modeling and observation. We focus on tidally forced mixing as the global energetics of this process have received (and are receiving) considerable study. Also, the well defined frequency of the forcing and the unique geometry of tidal scattering serve to focus the experiment design. The Hawaiian Ridge is selected as a study site. Strong interaction between the barotropic tide and the Ridge is known to take place. The goals of the Hawaiian Ocean Mixing Experiment (HOME) are to quantify the rate of tidal energy loss to mixing at the Ridge and to identify the mechanisms by which energy is lost and mixing generated. We are challenged to develop a sufficiently comprehensive picture that results can be generalized from Hawaii to the global ocean. To achieve these goals, investigators from five institutions have designed HOME, a program of historic data analysis, modeling and field observation. The Analysis and Modeling efforts support the design of the field experiments. As the program progresses, a global model of the barotropic (depth independent) tide, and two models of the baroclinic (depth varying) tide, all validated with near-Ridge data, will be applied, to reveal the mechanisms of tidal energy conversion along the Ridge, and allow spatial and temporal integration of the rate of conversion. Field experiments include a survey to identify "hot spots" of enhanced mixing and barotropic to baroclinic conversion, a Nearfield study identifying the dominant mechanisms responsible for topographic mixing, and a Farfield program which quantifies the barotropic energy flux convergence at the Ridge and the flux divergence associated with low mode baroclinic waves radiation. The difference is a measure of the tidal power available for mixing at the Ridge. Field work is planned from years 2000 through 2002, with analysis and modeling efforts extending through early 2006. If successful, HOME will yield an understanding of the dominant topographic mixing processes applicable throughout the global ocean. It will advance understanding of two central problems in ocean science, the maintenance of the abyssal stratification, and the dissipation of the tides. HOME data will be used to improve the parameterization of dissipation in models which presently assimilate TOPEX-POSEIDON observations. The improved understanding of the dynamics and spatial distribution of mixing processes will benefit future long-term programs such as CLIVAR.

Ray, Richard D.↗

A Future Mars Environment for Science and Exploration

Today, Mars is arid and cold with a very thin atmosphere that has significant frozen and underground water resources. The thin atmosphere prevents liquid water from residing permanently on its surface and makes it difficult to land missions since it is not thick enough to completely facilitate a soft landing. In its past, under the influence of a significant greenhouse effect, Mars must have had a significant water ocean covering perhaps 30% of the northern hemisphere. Mars lost its protective magnetosphere and therefore much of its atmosphere around 3 Ga ago, due to the solar wind. The atmospheric loss into the solar wind is somewhat balanced by the outgassing of the Mars interior and crust that contributes to the existing atmosphere leading to a global-mean surface atmosphere of ~6 mbar pressure currently. By using our extensive simulation tools and physics capabilities in Space Weather and Mars global climate modeling, we have started to explore the effects on Mars of placing an artificial magnetic dipole field at the Mars L1 Lagrange point putting Mars in a magnetotail. This situation then eliminates many of the solar-wind erosion processes that occur with the planet's ionosphere and upper atmosphere allowing the Martian atmosphere to grow in pressure and bulk temperature over time. Under thicker atmospheres, the global circulation patterns and seasonal changes are much different than at present. An enhanced atmosphere would: allow larger landed mass of equipment to the surface, shield against some cosmic and solar particle radiation, extend the ability for extraction, and provide "open air" greenhouses to exist for plant production, just to name a few. These new conditions on Mars would allow human explorers and researchers to study the planet in much greater detail and enable a truly profound new understanding of the habitability of this planet.

Space Weather and Mars global climate modeling↗

Thermospheric Neutral Density Variation During the “SpaceX” Storm: Implications From Physics-Based Whole Geospace Modeling

The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on February 3-4. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere-Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first-principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400-500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼ 200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM-2012 suggest only ∼ 50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm-time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and travelling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high-latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics-based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high-latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.

Starlink↗

A study of the Merritt Island, Florida sea breeze flow regimes and their effect on surface heat and moisture fluxes

Data collected during the Convective and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment were analyzed as part of an investigation of the sea breeze in the vicinity of Merritt Island, Florida. Analysis of near-surface divergence fields shows that the classical 24-hour oscillation in divergence over the island due to the direct sea breeze circulation is frequently disrupted and exhibits two distinct modes: the classical sea breeze pattern and deviations from that pattern. A comparison of clear day surface energy fluxes with fluxes on other days indicates that changes in magnitudes were dominated by the presence or absence of clouds. Non-classical sea breeze days tended to lose more available energy in the morning than classical sea breeze days due to earlier development of small cumulus over the island. A composite storm of surface winds, surface energy fluxes, rainfall, and satellite visible data was constructed. A spectral transmittance over the visible wavelengths for the cloud cover resulting from the composite storm was calculated. It is shown that pre-storm transmittances of 0.8 fall to values near 0.1 as the downdraft moves directly over the site. It is also found that under post-composite storm conditions of continuous clear sky days, 3.5 days are required to evaporate back into the atmosphere the latent heat energy lost to the surface by rainfall.

Rubes, M. T.↗

Association Between Vascular Density and Loss of Protective RAS During Early NPDR by Fractal Dimension

Purpose: Our hypothesis predicts that blood vessels within the retina increase in density during early-stage nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR), based on previous results of a small retrospective study. For the current prospective study, the remodeling of arteries and veins during progression of early NPDR is assessed by a repertoire of parameters that includes the fractal dimension (D(sub f) ). In complex structures such as branching vascular trees, D(sub f) is a sensitive measure of space-filing capacity. The renin-angiotensin system (RAS) is implicated in DR pathogenesis and the function of circulating angiogenic cells (CACs), a critical bone marrow-derived population instrumental in vascular repair. Methods: Arterial and venous branching patterns were extracted from images of 6 normal controls and 3 early NPDR subjects (2 moderate, 1 mild) acquired by Heidelberg Spectralis (Registered Trademark) OCT following fluorescein angiography (FA). The vascular branching patterns were analyzed by NASAs VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software, in which skeletonized representations were generated automatically to yield D(sub f) by the box-counting method. For binary 2D images, D(sub f) varies between limiting Euclidean dimensions of 1 and 2. Peripheral blood of diabetics and controls was collected for CD34+ CAC isolation. The gene expression of RAS in CACs was assessed by qPCR for Mas receptor to Ang-(1-7). The vasoreparative function of the CACs was measured by migration ability toward CXCL12 (SDF-1). Results: By D(sub f), venous and arterial densities were 1.370 +/- 0.006 and 1.329 +/- 0.016 for early NPDR, compared to 1.318 +/- 0.012 and 1.320 +/- 0.036 for control. The space filling capacity in early NPDR measured by D(sub f), a sensitive parameter, therefore demonstrated a pronounced increase for veins, but not for arteries. Mas receptor mRNA in CACs was increased in diabetics without DR but reduced with onset of NPDR, indicating possible loss of compensation of protective RAS during early DR. Migratory dysfunction of CD34+ cells was further associated with DR. Conclusions: As assessed by the fractal dimension in our preliminary study, the space-filling capacity of veins, but not arteries, was greater in early NPDR than in control. Larger patient populations will be examined as we complete our ongoing longitudinal study. Results further suggest the protective RAS axis within diabetic CACs is lost early in DR and is associated with increased vascular remodeling as evidenced by VESGEN analysis.

vascular↗