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NASA NTRS2021

Contribution of Meteorological Downscaling to Skill and Precision of Seasonal Drought Forecasts

Research in meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has seen growth in recent years. Concurrent with this, demand for seasonal drought forecasting has risen. While there is obvious synergy between these fields, S2S meteorological forecasting has typically focused on low resolution global models, while the development of drought can be sensitive to the local expression of weather anomalies and their interaction with local surface properties and processes. This suggests that downscaling might play an important role in the application of meteorological S2S forecasts to skillful forecasting of drought. Here, we apply the Generalized Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) algorithm to downscale meteorological hindcasts from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global S2S forecast system. Downscaled meteorological fields are then applied to drive offline simulations with the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) to forecast United States Drought Monitor (USDM) style drought indicators derived from simulated surface hydrology variables. We compare the representation of drought in these downscaled hindcasts to hindcasts that are not downscaled, using the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset as an observational reference. We find that downscaling using GARD improves hindcasts of temperature and temperature anomalies, but the results for precipitation are mixed and generally small. Overall, GARD downscaling led to improved hindcast skill for total drought across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), and improvements were greatest for extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought categories.

Ryan A Zamora↗
NASA NTRS1994

Magnetic spectral signatures in the Earth's magnetosheath and plasma depletion layer

Correlations between plasma properties and magnetic fluctuations in the sub-solar magnetosheath downstream of a quasi-perpendicular shock have been found and indicate that mirror and ion cyclotronlike fluctuations correlate with the magnetosheath proper and plasma depletion layer, respectively (Anderson and Fueselier, 1993). We explore the entire range of magnetic spectral signatures observed from the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/Charge Composition Explorer (AMPTE/CCE)spacecraft in the magnetosheath downstream of a quasi-perpendicular shock. The magnetic spectral signatures typically progress from predominantly compressional fluctuations,delta B(sub parallel)/delta B perpendicular to approximately 3, with F/F (sub p) less than 0.2 (F and F (sub p) are the wave frequency and proton gyrofrequency, respectively) to predominantly transverse fluctuations, delta B(sub parallel)/delta B perpendicular to approximately 0.3, extending up to F(sub p). The compressional fluctuations are characterized by anticorrelation between the field magnitude and electron density, n(sub e), and by a small compressibility, C(sub e) identically equal to (delta n(sub e)/n(sub e)) (exp 2) (B/delta B(sub parallel)) (exp 2) approximately 0.13, indicative of mirror waves. The spectral characteristics of the transverse fluctuations are in agreement with predictions of linear Vlasov theory for the H(+) and He(2+) cyclotron modes. The power spectra and local plasma parameters are found to vary in concert: mirror waves occur for beta(s ub parallel p) (beta (sub parallel p) identically = 2 mu(sub zero) n(sub p) kT (sub parallel p) / B(exp 2) approximately = 2, A(sub p) indentically = T(sub perpendicular to p)/T(sub parallel p) - 1 approximately = 0.4, whereas cyclotron waves occur for beta (sub parallel p) approximately = 0.2 and A(sub p) approximately = 2. The transition from mirror to cyclotron modes is predicted by linear theory. The spectral characteristics overlap for intermediate plasma parameters. The plasma observations are described by A(sub p) = 0.85 beta(sub parallel P) (exp - 0.48) with a log regression coefficient of -0.74. This inverse A(sub p) - beta(sub parallel p) correlation corresponds closely to the isocontours of maximum ion anisotropy instability growth, gamma (sub m)/omega(sub p) = 0.01, for the mirror and cyclotron modes. The agreement of observed properties and predictions of local theory suggests that the spectral signatures reflect the local plasma environment and that the anisotropy instabilities regulate A(sub p). We suggest that the spectral characteristics may provide a useful basis for ordering observations in the magnetosheath and that the A(sub p) - beta(sub parallel p) inverse correlation may be used as a beta-dependent upper limit on the proton anisotropy to represent kinetic effects.

Anderson, Brian J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Flooding Vulnerability to Assist High Water Intervention and Urban Planning Programs in the Charles River Watershed with NASA DEVELOP

The Charles River watershed intersects 35 municipalities within the Boston Metropolitan Area and has a total population of 1.2 million, making it one of the most densely populated watersheds in New England. In recent years, the watershed has observed higher rates of flood inundation, mainly due to increased development, extreme precipitation events, and increased surface runoff. As the frequency of flooding events increases and a changing climate poses an ongoing threat to local communities, governments and organizations in Massachusetts are in need of accurate flood risk assessments. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the Charles River Watershed Association, the Town of Natick’s Office of Sustainability, and the Massachusetts Audubon Society to assess flood vulnerability and susceptibility in the watershed. The team used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument to assess the feasibility of identifying the extent of past flood events using remote sensing. After identifying images that overlapped with reported flood events, the team concluded that it was not feasible to use Earth observation data to detect localized flooding in the time available for this study. Instead, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100-year floodplain was used as a proxy for areas where flooding may occur. The team used statistical regression analysis and validation and supervised classification to develop a flood susceptibility map, incorporating several flood conditioning factors. The susceptibility maps were calibrated to various thresholds, including two that highlight hypothetical flooding under more liberal and more conservative planning scenarios. These were overlaid with demographic and socioeconomic data to create flood vulnerability maps. The team’s flood susceptibility maps showed an improvement in capturing known flood events over the FEMA 100-year and 500-year floodplain maps. These results will be improved with the addition of stormwater drainage mapping and precipitation data. Results can be used to fill in the gaps to help the stakeholders understand their communities’ vulnerability and susceptibility to flooding and improve their preparedness plans.

Trista Brophy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Climate and History Case Study of 18th- and 19th-Century Multidecadal Droughts in East Africa Using a new Tree-Ring Drought Atlas

Historians and paleoclimatologists have both identified the decades spanning the late-18th and early-19th centuries in many East African regions as a period of prolonged and severe drought. A challenge that emerges from both the historical evidence and the paleolimnological data that have been primarily used to characterize this drought period, however, concerns the dating of events and the characterization of their spatial character; both oral traditions and lake-core proxies cannot typically offer hydroclimate estimates with seasonal or annual resolution, nor can they provide gridded reconstructions on the order of 1° latitude and longitude. The new East African Drought Atlas (EADA) incorporates far-field dendroclimatic records and several local East African tree-ring chronologies to provide estimates of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. We present the Point-by-Point Regression technique that was used to create the EADA, the rationale for the employed input data network, and the calibration and validation skill of the derived hydroclimatic field reconstruction. We use the EADA to characterize the timing of two decadal-scale droughts, centered over the Uganda and Kenya regions, which occurred in the late 18th century and early in the 19th century and were separated by a shorter, but pronounced wet period. We characterize the spatial patterns of the associated events and the dynamical causes that that the patterns imply. The reconstructed droughts are also compared to historical and paleolimnological data to evaluate the robustness of the reconstruction and the degree of agreement across the different sources of information.

Droughts↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Climate and History Case Study of 18th- and 19th-Century Multidecadal Droughts in East Africa Using a new Tree-Ring Drought Atlas

Historians and paleoclimatologists have both identified the decades spanning the late-18th and early-19th centuries in many East African regions as a period of prolonged and severe drought. A challenge that emerges from both the historical evidence and the paleolimnological data that have been primarily used to characterize this drought period, however, concerns the dating of events and the characterization of their spatial character; both oral traditions and lake-core proxies cannot typically offer hydroclimate estimates with seasonal or annual resolution, nor can they provide gridded reconstructions on the order of 1° latitude and longitude. The new East African Drought Atlas (EADA) incorporates far-field dendroclimatic records and several local East African tree-ring chronologies to provide estimates of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. We present the Point-by-Point Regression technique that was used to create the EADA, the rationale for the employed input data network, and the calibration and validation skill of the derived hydroclimatic field reconstruction. We use the EADA to characterize the timing of two decadal-scale droughts, centered over the Uganda and Kenya regions, which occurred in the late 18th century and early in the 19th century and were separated by a shorter, but pronounced wet period. We characterize the spatial patterns of the associated events and the dynamical causes that that the patterns imply. The reconstructed droughts are also compared to historical and paleolimnological data to evaluate the robustness of the reconstruction and the degree of agreement across the different sources of information.

Droughts↗
NASA NTRS1992

Active and passive microwave measurements of soil moisture in FIFE

During the intensive field campaigns of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) in May-October of 1987, several nearly simultaneous measurements were made with low-altitude flights of the L-band radiometer and C- and X-band scatterometers over two transects in the Konza Prairie Natural Research Area, some 8 km south of Manhattan, Kansas. These measurements showed that although the scatterometers were sensitive to soil moisture variations in most regions under the flight path, the L-band radiometer lost most of its sensitivity in regions unburned for many years. The correlation coefficient derived from the regression between the radar backscattering coefficient and the soil moisture was found to improve with the increase in antenna incidence angle. This is attributed to a steeper falloff of the backscattering coefficient as a function of local incidence at angles near nadir than at angles greater than 30 deg.

Wang, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Epperson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The effect of local advection on the inference of soil moisture from thermal infrared radiances

The degree to which the GOES-VISSR infrared data can be used to infer area-averaged soil moisture is explored for a five-day case study period. Chosen variables are transformed and incorporated into a multiple linear regression. The actual observations, rather than a simplified model, are used to determine the relationship between soil moisture and GOES-IR radiance. It is shown that a depletion coefficient of 0.92 produces an index of ground truth which is best correlated with soil moisture as inferred from GOES thermal infrared data. When all individual daily soil estimates during the case study period are averaged at each point and compared to the average observed soil moisture, the data correlate at 0.85. This implies that the algorithm can distinguish at least four categories of soil moisture.

Wetzel, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Remote sensing of geobotanical trends in East Africa

The spatial and phenological distribution of vegetation was examined in a remote sensing geobotanical study of the East Africa Rift region. Six normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) AVHRR (advanced very high resolution radiometer) scenes (February, June, and September of both 1984 and 1987) were used as a measure of vegetation presence. NOAA ETOPO-5 elevation and geographic coordinate data were coregistered with the multitemporal NDVI images. Univariate and multivariate statistics indicate that the NDVI values are significantly associated with elevation, latitude, and longitude. This supports the concept of quantifiable, regional gradients that affect large-scale geobotanical studies. A quadratic regression line was fitted to the NDVI, elevation, latitude, and longitudinal data. In this way a regional trend, as affected by elevation, was determined. The deviation of the actual data from this regional trend was displayed as an image, and shows the local climatic and geological influences.

Warner, Timothy A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 2: Estimation of the urban bias

A methodology is presented for estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures due to the effect of the urban heat island. Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate, site-specific data to represent the local landscape, and satellite-derived data -- the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime brightness data -- to represent the urban and rural landscape. Local NDVI and DMSP values were calculated for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 3 km x 3 km area centered over the given station. Regional NDVI and DMSP values were calculated to represent a typical rural value for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude-longitude area in which the given station was located. Models for the United States were then developed for monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures using data from over 1000 stations in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and for monthly mean temperatures with data from over 1150 stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Local biases, or the differences between the model predictions using the observed NDVI and DMSP values, and the predictions using the background regional values were calculated and compared with the results of other research. The local or urban bias of U.S. temperatures, as derived from all U.S. stations (urban and rural) used in the models, averaged near 0.40 C for monthly minimum temperatures, near 0.25 C for monthly mean temperatures, and near 0.10 C for monthly maximum temperatures. The biases of monthly minimum temperatures for individual stations ranged from near -1.1 C for rural stations to 2.4 C for stations from the largest urban areas. The results of this study indicate minimal problems for global application once global NDVI and DMSP data become available.

Epperson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

On Flow Stagnation in a Tube Radiator

An analysis of the physical process for occurrence of flow stagnation in a space tube-radiator is performed and the mechanism and mathematic description for the flow stagnation are presented. Two causes for pressure drop unbalance between tubes of the radiator are identified: non-uniform cooling environment and different local flow resistances between the tubes. This analysis provides a theoretical basis for experimental simulations of the flow stagnation in a ground-based lab as well as two suggested methods to experimentally simulate flow stagnation. Criteria for the flow stagnation, depending on the viscosity data regressive polynomial, are derived from the extreme condition of the pressure drop in colder tubes. A preliminary numerical calculation is conducted for a space tube-radiator model which confirms the physical and mathematical analyses. The prediction by the criteria for flow stagnation in the tube-radiator model coincides with the numerical calculation result.

Motil, Brian↗
NASA NTRS1996

Intramuscular Pressure Measurement During Locomotion in Humans

To assess the usefulness of intramuscular pressure (IMP) measurement for studying muscle function during gait, IMP was recorded in the soleus and tibialis anterior muscles of ten volunteers during, treadmill walking, and running using transducer-tipped catheters. Soleus IMP exhibited single peaks during late-stance phase of walking (181 +/- 69 mmHg, mean +/- S.E.) and running (269 +/- 95 mmHg). Tibialis anterior IMP showed a biphasic response, with the largest peak (90 +/- 15 mmHg during walking and 151 +/- 25 mmHg during running) occurring shortly after heel strike. IMP magnitude increased with gait speed in both muscles. Linear regression of soleus IMP against ankle joint torque obtained by a dynamometer in two subjects produced linear relationships (r = 0.97). Application of these relationships to IMP data yielded estimated peak soleus moment contributions of 0.95-165 Nm/Kg during walking, and 1.43-2.70 Nm/Kg during running. IMP results from local muscle tissue deformations caused by muscle force development and thus, provides a direct, practical index of muscle function during locomotion in humans.

Ballard, Ricard E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Natural abundance deuterium and 18-oxygen effects on the precision of the doubly labeled water method

The doubly labeled water method for measuring total energy expenditure is subject to error from natural variations in the background 2H and 18O in body water. There is disagreement as to whether the variations in background abundances of the two stable isotopes covary and what relative doses of 2H and 18O minimize the impact of variation on the precision of the method. We have performed two studies to investigate the amount and covariance of the background variations. These were a study of urine collected weekly from eight subjects who remained in the Madison, WI locale for 6 wk and frequent urine samples from 14 subjects during round-trip travel to a locale > or = 500 miles from Madison, WI. Background variation in excess of analytical error was detected in six of the eight nontravelers, and covariance was demonstrated in four subjects. Background variation was detected in all 14 travelers, and covariance was demonstrated in 11 subjects. The median slopes of the regression lines of delta2H vs. delta18O were 6 and 7, respectively. Modeling indicated that 2H and 18O doses yielding a 6:1 ratio of final enrichments should minimize this error introduced to the doubly labeled water method.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Influence of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Landslide Susceptibility in the Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia experiences frequent rainfall-triggered landslides especially during the monsoon season. In this study, the influence of land use and land cover change and other causative factors on landslide susceptibility is evaluated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Frequency ratio analysis is performed to quantify the relationship between LULC change and susceptibility. Detailed landslide inventory maps are used for analysis with yearly LULC maps. The LULC change is used as a contributing variable in a logistic regression-based susceptibility model with other variables including distance to roads, slope, aspect, forest loss, and soil properties. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve are estimated for the model trained by each landslide inventory. The models show good performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.697 to 0.958 and an average AUC equal to 0.820. Both the Frequency Ratio analysis and the Logistic Regression models indicate LULC change from agricultural land to forest has a positive correlation with landslide occurrence. The most significant factors in the models are found to be distance to roads, slope, and aspect. A better understanding of the effects of LULC on landslide susceptibility can be useful for local land and disaster management and for the implementation of LULC as a factor in future susceptibility models. Using datasets that are unique to the Lower Mekong region, this study provides additional insights into the relationship between causative factors and landslide activity to better inform regional and global landslide susceptibility modeling.

River Basin↗
NASA NTRS1983

On the determination of airplane model structure form flight data

A procedure based on a modified stepwise regression and several selection criteria is presented for the determination of airplane model structure from flight data. The aerodynamic force and moment coefficients in an airplane model are expresed either as polynomials in output and input variables or as a combination of splines. The procedure is demonstrated in three examples by attempting to determine a local, extended and global model. Some of the resulting models are verified by using the maximum likelihood estimation or by examining model prediction capabilities.

Klein, V.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Comparative Analysis of Empirical and Machine Learning Models for Chla Extraction Using Sentinel-2 and Landsat OLI Data: Opportunities, Limitations, and Challenges

Remote retrieval of near-surface chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration in small inland waters is challenging due to substantial optical interferences of various water constituents and uncertainties in the atmospheric correction (AC) process. Although various algorithms have been developed to estimate Chla from moderate-resolution terrestrial missions (∼10–60 m), the production of both accurate distribution maps and time series of Chla has proven challenging, limiting the use of remote analyses for lake monitoring. Here, we develop a support vector regression (SVR) model, which uses satellite-derived remote-sensing reflectance spectra () from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images as input for Chla retrieval in a representative eutrophic prairie lake, Buffalo Pound Lake (BPL), Saskatchewan, Canada. Validated against in situ Chla from seven ice-free seasons (N ∼ 200; 2014–2020), the SVR model outperformed both locally tuned, -fed empirical models (Normalized Difference Chlorophyll Index, 2- and 3-band, and OC3) and Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) by 15–65%, while exhibiting comparable performance to a locally trained MDN, with an error of ∼35%. Comparison of Chla retrieval models, AC processors (iCOR, ACOLITE), and radiometric products (Rayleigh-corrected, surface, and top-of-atmosphere reflectance) showed that the best Chla maps and optimal time series (up to 100 mg m−3) were produced using a coupled SVR-iCOR system.

algal blooms↗
NASA NTRS1998

Leg intramuscular pressures during locomotion in humans

To assess the usefulness of intramuscular pressure (IMP) measurement for studying muscle function during gait, IMP was recorded in the soleus and tibialis anterior muscles of 10 volunteers during treadmill walking and running by using transducer-tipped catheters. Soleus IMP exhibited single peaks during late-stance phase of walking [181 +/- 69 (SE) mmHg] and running (269 +/- 95 mmHg). Tibialis anterior IMP showed a biphasic response, with the largest peak (90 +/- 15 mmHg during walking and 151 +/- 25 mmHg during running) occurring shortly after heel strike. IMP magnitude increased with gait speed in both muscles. Linear regression of soleus IMP against ankle joint torque obtained by a dynamometer produced linear relationships (n = 2, r = 0.97 for both). Application of these relationships to IMP data yielded estimated peak soleus moment contributions of 0.95-1.65 N . m/kg during walking, and 1.43-2.70 N . m/kg during running. Phasic elevations of IMP during exercise are probably generated by local muscle tissue deformations due to muscle force development. Thus profiles of IMP provide a direct, reproducible index of muscle function during locomotion in humans.

Clinical Trial↗
NASA NTRS1983

Creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic)

The Hot Section Technology (HOST) program, creep fatigue life prediction for engine hot section materials (isotropic), is reviewed. The program is aimed at improving the high temperature crack initiation life prediction technology for gas turbine hot section components. Significant results include: (1) cast B1900 and wrought IN 718 selected as the base and alternative materials respectively; (2) fatigue test specimens indicated that measurable surface cracks appear early in the specimen lives, i.e., 15% of total life at 871 C and 50% of life at 538 c; (3) observed crack initiation sites are all surface initiated and are associated with either grain boundary carbides or local porosity, transgrannular cracking is observed at the initiation site for all conditions tested; and (4) an initial evaluation of two life prediction models, representative of macroscopic (Coffin-Mason) and more microscopic (damage rate) approaches, was conducted using limited data generated at 871 C and 538 C. It is found that the microscopic approach provides a more accurate regression of the data used to determine crack initiation model constants, but overpredicts the effect of strain rate on crack initiation life for the conditions tested.

Moreno, V.↗