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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Fundamental Insights into Cathode Stability: Linking Compositional Tuning and Local Coordination in Complex Metal Oxides under Aqueous Transformations

Compositional tuning of complex metal oxides in Li-ion battery materials influences their performance as well as their end-of-life behavior, in particular, the tendency to release toxic metal cations in aqueous solution. We modeled ternary variants of a parent LiCoO 2 delafossite structure by varying the metal identity and relative amounts. This yielded ten model formulations of Li(A 4/6 B 1/6 C 1/6 )O 2 , where the material is enriched with the A metal and doped with B and C, with Ni, Mn, Co, Fe, Al, V, and Ti as constituent metals. To assess their stability in aqueous conditions, metal release energetics were calculated using a combination of Density Functional Theory calculations and thermodynamics. Metal release in ternary oxides is dictated by subtle variations in the coordination environment of the leaving group. To identify governing chemical features across diverse compositions with varying local coordination environments, we leverage random forest regression and descriptor importance analysis. A key result is that metal–oxygen orbital hybridization, quantified using a projected density-of-states-derived descriptor, H d/p , provides a physically grounded measure of interaction strength that governs metal release energetics. This refined perspective goes beyond conventional oxidation state considerations and offers more robust insights for materials science. Finally, we model defect surface-bound O 2 dimer formation as a proxy for reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation. The results show that Ni-rich compositions more readily stabilize spin-polarized O 2 dimers, corroborating experimental reports of an increased ROS-driven biological response. In conclusion, our results establish a compositional and electronic basis for metal release and surface oxygen reactivity that form a rationale for complex metal oxide design principles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1989

Use of anomolous thermal imaging effects for multi-mode systems control during crystal growth

Real time image processing techniques, combined with multitasking computational capabilities are used to establish thermal imaging as a multimode sensor for systems control during crystal growth. Whereas certain regions of the high temperature scene are presently unusable for quantitative determination of temperature, the anomalous information thus obtained is found to serve as a potentially low noise source of other important systems control output. Using this approach, the light emission/reflection characteristics of the crystal, meniscus and melt system are used to infer the crystal diameter and a linear regression algorithm is employed to determine the local diameter trend. This data is utilized as input for closed loop control of crystal shape. No performance penalty in thermal imaging speed is paid for this added functionality. Approach to secondary (diameter) sensor design and systems control structure is discussed. Preliminary experimental results are presented.

Wargo, Michael J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning with bond information for local structure optimizations in surface science

Local optimization of adsorption systems inherently involves different scales: within the substrate, within the molecule, and between the molecule and the substrate. In this work, we show how the explicit modeling of different characteristics of the bonds in these systems improves the performance of machine learning methods for optimization. Furthermore, we introduce an anisotropic kernel in the Gaussian process regression framework that guides the search for the local minimum, and we show its overall good performance across different types of atomic systems. The method shows a speed-up of up to a factor of two compared with the fastest standard optimization methods on adsorption systems. Additionally, we show that a limited memory approach is not only beneficial in terms of overall computational resources but can also result in a further reduction of energy and force calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability as a probe of manifest and latent physics: The case of atomic scale structural, chemical, and polarization behaviors in multiferroic Sm-doped BiFeO 3

The predictability of a certain effect or phenomenon is often equated with the knowledge of relevant physical laws, typically understood as a functional or numerically derived relationship between the observations and known states of the system. Correspondingly, observations inconsistent with prior knowledge can be used to derive new knowledge on the nature of the system or indicate the presence of yet unknown mechanisms. In this work, we explore the applicability of Gaussian processes (GP) to establish predictability and uncertainty of local behaviors from multimodal observations, providing an alternative to this classical paradigm. Using atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) of multiferroic Sm-doped BiFeO 3 across a broad composition range, we directly visualize the atomic structure and structural, physical, and chemical order parameter fields for the material. GP regression is used to establish the predictability of the local polarization field from different groups of parameters, including the adjacent polarization values and several combinations of physical and chemical descriptors, including lattice parameters, column intensities, etc. We observe that certain elements of microstructure, including charged and uncharged domain walls and interfaces with the substrate, are best predicted with specific combinations of descriptors, and this predictability and associated uncertainties are consistent across the composition series. The associated generative physical mechanisms are discussed. It is also found that certain parameter combinations tend to predict the orthorhombic phase in the cases where rhombohedral phase is observed, suggesting a potential role of clamping and confinement phenomena in phase equilibrium in Sm-BiFeO 3 system close to morphotropic phase boundary. We argue that predictability and uncertainty in observational data offer a new pathway to probe the physics of condensed matter systems from multimodal local observations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Oceanic Barrier Layer in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Predictor for Rainfall Over Indonesia and Australia

Barrier layers in the tropics trap heat in a shallow and stable near-surface layer and limit entrainment of cooler water from below. Both processes act to increase sea surface temperature and enhance atmospheric convection. The high resolution fully coupled pre-industrial Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 0 (E3SMv0) is used to investigate the relationship between barrier layers in the eastern Indian Ocean during the wet season with local atmospheric convection and remote rainfall. A partial least squares regression reveals a significant relationship between Australasian rainfall and the barrier layer thickness (BLT) west of Sumatra, occurring one month earlier. Furthermore, the largest positive regression coefficients are over northern Australia. The region west of Sumatra is strategically located where the East-Asian monsoon moisture flows toward northern Australia. Thickening of the west Sumatra BLT intensifies evaporation and local convection and amplifies the moisture transported to Australia acting to increase the terrestrial rainfall.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of mechanisms driving heterogeneous void growth in ductile aluminum

Void growth plays a central role in ductile fracture, yet the specific mechanisms that control this remain obscure. Classical models, such as those proposed by Rice and Tracey in 1969, are able to capture average rates of void growth, but cannot capture the heterogeneity of individual void growth. Building on recent work, the present study employs laboratory-based diffraction contrast tomography and in-situ x-ray computed tomography to investigate the effect of grain structure and other microstructural factors on void growth in an Al-2219 alloy. Crystal plasticity finite element (CP-FE) modeling is used alongside experimental data to evaluate the contributions of local mechanical states, grain orientation, grain size, and neighboring microstructural features. No strong linear relationships are found with any of the considered descriptors and void growth rate. Potential complex nonlinear relationships are explored with the use of a random forest regression model, which identifies initial void volume, void aspect ratio, local normal stress state, local shear stress state, and local equivalent plastic strain (EQPS) as features that most improve void growth rate predictions. The combination of these analyses suggests that these features should be prioritized to improve models of void growth.

Diffraction contrast tomography (DCT)↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Robust Neural Network for Extracting Dynamics from Electrostatic Force Microscopy Data

Advances in scanning probe microscopy (SPM) methods such as time-resolved electrostatic force microscopy (trEFM) now permit the mapping of fast local dynamic processes with high resolution in both space and time, but such methods can be time-consuming to analyze and calibrate. Here, we design and train a regression neural network (NN) that accelerates and simplifies the extraction of local dynamics from SPM data directly in a cantilever-independent manner, allowing the network to process data taken with different cantilevers. We validate the NN’s ability to recover local dynamics with a fidelity equal to or surpassing conventional, more time-consuming, calibrations using both simulated and real microscopy data. We apply this method to extract accurate photoinduced carrier dynamics on n = 1 butylammonium lead iodide, a halide perovskite semiconductor film that is of interest for applications in both solar photovoltaics and quantum light sources. Lastly, we use SHapley Additive exPlanations to evaluate the robustness of the trained model, confirm its cantilever-independence, and explore which parts of the trEFM signal are important to the network.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗
DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2024

Urban Air Quality Management at Low-Cost Using Micro Air Sensors: A Case Study From Accra, Ghana

Urban air quality management is dependent on the availability of local air pollution data. In many major urban centers of Africa, there is limited to non-existent information on air quality. This is gradually changing in part due to the increasing use of micro air sensors which have the potential to enable the generation of ground-based air quality data at fine scales for understanding local emission trends. Regional literature on the application of the high-resolution data for emission source identification in this region is limited. In this study a micro air sensor was co-located at the Physics Department, University of Ghana with a reference grade instrument to evaluate its performance for estimating PM2.5 pollution accurately at fine scales and the value of this data in identification of local sources and their behavior over time. For this study 15 weeks of data at hourly resolution with approximately 2500 data pairs are generated and analyzed (June 01, 2023, to September 15, 2023). For this time period a coefficient of determination (r 2 ) of 0.83 was generated with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.44 μgm -3 between the pre local calibration micro air sensor (i.e. out of box) and the reference-grade instrument. Following currently accepted best practice methods (see e.g., PAS4023) a domain specific (i.e. local) calibration factor was generated using a multi-linear regression model and when this factor is applied to the micro air sensor data, a reduction i.e., improvement in MAE to 1.43 μgm -3 was found. Daily variation was calculated, a receptor model was applied, and time series plots as a function of wind direction were generated, including PM2.5/PM10 ratio scatter and count plots to explore the utility of this observational approach for local source identification. The 3 data sets were compared (out of box, domain calibrated and reference-grade) and it was found that although there were variations in the data reported, source areas highlighted based on these data were similar, with input from local sources such as traffic emissions and biomass burning. As the temporal resolution of observational data associated with these micro air sensors is higher than for reference grade instruments (primarily due to costs and logistics limitations), they have the potential to provide insight into the complex, often hyper localized sources associated with urban areas, such as those found in major African cities.

Source apportionment↗
NASA NTRS1961

Earth Oblateness and Relative Sun Motion Considerations in the Determination of an Ideal Orbit for the Nimbus Meteorological Satellite

It is desired that the Nimbus meteorological satellite always cross the equator around local noon and, half-an-orbit later, cross the equator in the other direction around local midnight. The application of the phenomenon of nodal regression toward this end is discussed, and an analysis of the parameters angles of inclination, periods, and heights of such "ideal" circular orbits is presented. Also, the relative motion of the apparent versus the fictitious mean sun is briefly discussed.

Bandeen, William R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Applying Machine Learning to Predict Alaskan Ionospheric Irregularities

In this work several machine-learning (ML) techniques for predicting ionospheric irregularities in the northern auroral zone were tested. The techniques include Ridge Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM), Classification Neural Network (CNN), Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (ACNN), and LSTM Autoencoder Classification Neural Network (LACNN). These techniques were tested with the rate of total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) data collected during 2008 and 2009 from a geodetic station in Fairbanks, Alaska (64.98°N, 147.50°W), which is in the auroral zone. Using ROTI data with the ML techniques, experiments were conducted to reach two goals: (1) examine what space weather measurements present good correlation with ROTI so that they may be helpful in ML-based prediction of ionospheric irregularities in the polar region; (2) predict ROTI hours and days ahead by training the neural network models with historical ROTI data alone. The Ridge Regression experiments indicate that a combination of measurements of local geomagnetic horizontal components, geomagnetic SYM-H index, 3-hour Kp and ap indices, and F10.7 solar flux index appears to be more correlated to the single-site ROTI measurements than other parameters. The neural network (NN) experiments show that although the LACNN model allows for predictions of non-irregularity and irregularity conditions defined by ROTI levels up to 3 hours in advance, with an overall accuracy ≥ 92%, a number of irregularity events can still be missed. Hence, further development is needed to reduce the number of missed events. In this paper, the models, data processing, model performance, prediction results, and potential applications are presented.

Pi, Xiaoqing↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Does Flow Alteration Propagate Across a Large, Highly Regulated Basin? Dam Attributes, Network Context, and Implications for Biodiversity

Abstract Large dams are a leading cause of river ecosystem degradation. Although dams have cumulative effects as water flows downstream in a river network, most flow alteration research has focused on local impacts of single dams. Here we examined the highly regulated Colorado River Basin (CRB) to understand how flow alteration propagates in river networks, as influenced by the location and characteristics of dams as well as the structure of the river network—including the presence of tributaries. We used a spatial Markov network model informed by 117 upstream‐downstream pairs of monthly flow series (2003–2017) to estimate flow alteration from 84 intermediate‐to‐large dams representing >83% of the total storage in the CRB. Using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression, we then investigated how flow alteration was influenced by local dam properties (e.g., purpose, storage capacity) and network‐level attributes (e.g., position, upstream cumulative storage). Flow alteration was highly variable across the network, but tended to accumulate downstream and remained high in the main stem. Dam impacts were explained by network‐level attributes (63%) more than by local dam properties (37%), underscoring the need to consider network context when assessing dam impacts. High‐impact dams were often located in sub‐watersheds with high levels of native fish biodiversity, fish imperilment, or species requiring seasonal flows that are no longer present. These three biodiversity dimensions, as well as the amount of dam‐free downstream habitat, indicate potential to restore river ecosystems via controlled flow releases. Our methods are transferrable and could guide screening for dam reoperation in other highly regulated basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distance-dependent dielectric constant at the calcite/electrolyte interface: Implication for surface complexation modeling

Hypothesis: The electrical double layer formed at the mineral/electrolyte interface is often modeled using mean-field approaches based on a continuum description of the solvent whose dielectric constant is assumed to decrease monotonically with decreasing distance to the surface. In contrast, molecular simulations show that the solvent polarizability oscillates near the surface similar to the water density profile - as shown previously, for example, by Bonthuis et al. (D.J. Bonthuis, S. Gekle, R.R. Netz, Dielectric Profile of Interfacial Water and its Effect on Double-Layer Capacitance, Phys Rev Lett 107(16) (2011) 166102). Here, we showed that molecular and mesoscale pictures agree by spatially averaging the dielectric constant obtained from molecular dynamics simulations over the distances relevant to the mean-field representation. In addition, the values of capacitances used to describe the electrical double layer in Surface Complexation Models (SCMs) of the mineral/electrolyte interface can be estimated using molecularly informed spatially averaged dielectric constants and positions of hydration layers. Experiments: First, we used molecular dynamics simulations to model the calcite 101¯4/electrolyte interface. Next, by using atomistic trajectories, we calculated the distance-dependent static dielectric constant and water density in the direction normal to the. Finally, we applied spatial compartmentalization consistent with the model of parallel-plate capacitors connected in series to estimate SCM capacitances. Findings: Computationally expensive simulations are required to determine the dielectric constant profile of interfacial water near the mineral surface. On the other hand, water density profiles are readily assessable from much shorter simulation trajectories. Our simulations confirmed that dielectric and water density oscillations at the interface are correlated. Here, we parametrized linear regression models to estimate the dielectric constant directly from the local water density. This is a significant computational shortcut compared to slowly converging calculations relying on total dipole moment fluctuations. The amplitude of the interfacial dielectric constant oscillation can exceed the dielectric constant of the bulk water, suggesting an ice-like frozen state, but only if there are no electrolyte ions. The interfacial accumulation of electrolyte ions causes a decrease in the dielectric constant due to the reduction of water density and re-orientation of water dipoles in ion hydration shells. Finally, we show how to use the computed dielectric properties to estimate SCM's capacitances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpretable, extensible linear and symbolic regression models for charge density prediction using a hierarchy of many-body correlation descriptors

Here, density functional theory (DFT) is routinely used to make electronic structure predictions for high-throughput screening of materials and molecules for technologically relevant areas, like the identification of better catalysts, electronic materials, and drug discovery. However, the DFT formalism is limited by (a) its poor (quadratic-to-quartic) scaling, and (b) the need to perform repeated eigenvalue computations of the electronic Hamiltonian as part of its self-consistent field (SCF) iteration procedure to obtain the converged ground state electron density, ρ (r). Approaches that directly predict ρ (r) of a structure with high accuracy can accelerate conventional SCF calculations and can also be used in linearly scaling methods such as orbital-free DFT. To this end, we present a procedure to predict the ground state electron density of molecular and periodic three-dimensional systems directly from the atomic structure with a particular emphasis on physical interpretability. In our framework, ρ (r) is modeled using many-body correlation descriptors that accurately capture the effects of local atomic arrangements in the neighborhood of a grid point. Our use of a linear regression scheme to fit to charge density data enables transparent analysis of the relative contributions of various types of local atomic correlations. By systematically including increasingly complex correlations, our model is shown to accurately predict ρ (r) for a variety of chemically and electronically diverse systems — amorphous Ge, Al(001) slab, crystalline Ga 2 O 3 , molecular benzene, and polyethylene. We then demonstrate a symbolic regression-based protocol to construct easily computable, interpretable features from lower-order correlations that significantly improves our electron density predictions with effectively no increase in the computational cost.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Classification of Molten Salt Heat Exchanger Channel Plugging using Synthetic Data

This report addresses the requirements of Milestone M3.4 AI capability to identify and predict maintenance events. Development of digital twins (DT) for molten salt reactor (MSR) components is crucial for reducing operating and maintenance costs (O&M) and ensuring commercial viability of these reactors. Our focus is on development of DT for MSR primary system heat exchanger (HX), a critical component, the fault in which can reduce operating efficiency and force reactor shutdown. We are investigating the feasibility of a conceptual DT of HX consisting of internal distributed temperature sensing with fiber optics and machine learning (ML) algorithms to detect and localize faults. To determine the optimal approach to detection and localization of channel plugging, we benchmark seven different ML models: Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVM), Decision Tree Classifier, Random Forest Tree Classifier, and Feed-Forward Neural Network. ML algorithms are benchmarked using synthetic HX plugging data generated with computational fluid dynamics COMSOL software, with added brown noise to represent experimental noise. We show that the best performance is obtained with the Decision Tree classifier.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗