Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Load forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

A Neural Optimizer With Decision-Focused Learning for Optimal Energy Storage Operation

Here, this article introduces a neural optimizer-based framework for optimizing battery energy storage system (BESS) control for grid services, including demand charge and energy cost reduction. By leveraging decision-focused learning (DFL), the proposed framework ensures seamless integration and adaptation, significantly enhancing control performance. A patch time-series transformer is employed for peak load forecasting, incorporating aleatoric uncertainty quantification to account for forecasting uncertainties within the decision-making process. The framework utilizes a solver-in-the-loop approach to generate optimal BESS actions, which are then used to train the neural optimizer-based agent. By co-optimizing both BESS operational modes and output power within the NN, the system achieves improved performance and robustness. After initial training, the forecasting and control models are jointly fine-tuned to account for forecasting errors, further improving decision precision and efficiency through DFL. Case studies are performed to validate the performance of the framework using multiple real-world datasets, demonstrating superior performance in monthly peak load forecasting compared to state-of-the-art models. In addition, the results are compared against existing decision-making approaches. The results demonstrate a reduction in monthly peak forecasting error by approximately 15% across various performance measures and achieve an optimization gap for BESS operation that is about three times smaller compared to existing methods.

Kim, Hyeonjin [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗

Heuristic Dispatch Based on Price Signals for Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems in the System Advisor Model

The economic potential of a behind-the-meter (BTM) PV-battery system depends greatly on how the battery is dispatched. Different utility rates, system sizes, generation and load profiles can all require different dispatch strategies. This paper presents price signals dispatch, a new algorithm for automated economic dispatch of BTM PV-battery systems, which utilizes 24-hour PV and load forecasts, degradation data, and utility rates. The algorithm is integrated with the System Advisor Model (SAM) tool and is tested with a nonlinear generic electrochemical battery model. Price signals dispatch outperforms SAM's existing algorithms in cases requiring a balance between demand charge management and energy arbitrage, and in cases where battery degradation imposes a significant cost.

batteries↗

pnnl/Forte

Interactive user-interface application for deep probabilistic day-ahead net-load forecasting. This application allows a utility operator and/or other end-user to access through an easy interface the powers of advanced deep AI/ML algorithms for generating day-ahead probabilistic forecast of net-load. Also known as "VRN3P"

Bhattacharjee, Kaustav↗

Forecasting of loading on the Deep Space Network for proposed future NASA mission sets

The paper describes a computer program, DSNLOAD, which provides the Deep Space Network (DSN) loading information given a proposed future NASA mission set. The DSNLOAD model includes required pre- and post-calibration periods, and station 'overhead' such as maintenance or 'down' time. The analysis is presented which transforms station view period data for the mission set into loading matrices used to assess loading requirement. Assessment of future loading on the DSN for a set of NASA missions by estimating the tracking situation and presenting the DSN loading data, and a flowchart for selecting a possible future mission, determining a heliocentric orbit for the mission, generating view period schedules, and converting these schedules into basic loading data for each mission for each station are given. The tracking schedule model which considers the tracking schedule to be represented by passes of maximum required length and centered within the view period of available tracking time for each mission is described, and, finally, an example of typical loading study is provided.

Webb, W. A.↗

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗

Forecasting EV Charging Demand on the Distribution System

The U.S. transportation and electricity sectors have historically operated independently, but the growth of electric vehicles (EVs) is driving their convergence. After decades of stagnant demand, utilities must prepare for rising load growth, driven in part by transportation electrification. Utilities must anticipate when and where these new loads will materialize to effectively manage EV growth and maintain grid reliability. This presentation outlines NREL's approach to developing high-resolution EV load datasets for distribution planning, with insights from the Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study on EV and load forecasting, infrastructure requirements, and managed charging strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Examples of State and Utility Actions on Proactive Planning and Investments

As states across the U.S. confront rising electricity demand, clean energy deployment, grid modernization imperatives, and the integration of large new loads, some regulators and utilities are shifting away from reactive, “just-in-time” investment approaches toward more proactive planning and investment frameworks. This report compiles examples of jurisdictional and utility actions that reshape planning processes, cost recovery mechanisms, and performance oversight to anticipate—rather than simply respond to—future grid needs. Several themes emerge from state actions examined in this report. First, legislatures and commissions are increasingly directing utilities to proactively upgrade their distribution and transmission systems, reflecting a shift toward a forward-looking system that aligns planning with state policy goals. Second, states are establishing long-term, iterative planning frameworks that often feature multi-year horizons, biannual or annual compliance reporting, structured opportunities for stakeholder engagement, and emphasis on collaboration among utilities, regulators, and stakeholders. Third, states are actively investigating innovative cost recovery mechanisms designed to support accelerated electrification and grid modernization, while balancing consumer advocates’ concerns regarding the ratepayer financial risks of premature investments. Fourth, performance metrics and reporting requirements are being developed to ensure transparency and accountability for proactive investments. Fifth, methodological improvements in planning—such as aligning load forecasting assumptions, incorporating sensitivities, and considering load management potential across building, vehicles, storage, and demand response—are recurring areas of stakeholder focus across jurisdictions. Overall, these developments signify a growing recognition among state regulators, utilities, and stakeholders that proactive planning—supported by clear definitions, consistent and transparent methodologies, robust performance metrics, and innovative cost recovery mechanisms—is a tool that can be used to address the scale and urgency of contemporary grid needs.

electricity market↗

Powered by dGen Webinar [Slides]

NLR's Powered By Webinar Series featuring NLR's dGen Modeling Tool. The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenTM) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The model enables analysis at multiple geographic levels (national, state, and utility, or below) and offers sophistication in representation of decision-making regarding economic and behavioral considerations. Analysts have used dGen to answer questions about load forecasting and integrated resource planning, policy analysis, locational value of distributed energy resources, and more. dGen is open source, and various energy organizations - including independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the California Energy Commission - use the model internally.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗

Black Swan Event Small-Sample Transfer Learning (BEST-L) and its Case Study on Electrical Power Prediction in COVID-19

The black swan event will usually cause a great impact on the normal operation of society. The scarcity of such events leads to a lack of relevant data and challenges in dealing with related problems. Different situations also make the traditional methods invalid. In this paper, a transfer learning framework and a convolutional neuron network are proposed to deal with the black swan small-sample events (BEST-L). Taking the COVID-19 as a typical black swan event, the BEST-L is utilized to achieve accurate mid-term load forecasting using the relationship between economy and electricity consumption. The experiment results show that the transfer learning model can effectively learn the basic knowledge about the relationship between the adopted input and output data and use a relatively small amount of data during the black swan event to improve the target areas' generalization. The approach and results can provide an effective approach to respond and react to sudden changes quickly and effectively in similar open problems.

black swan event↗

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗

2025 Large Load Literature Review

This literature review catalogs more than 90 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 12 categories, (listed below). The 2026 Large Load Literature Review and Data Sources summary reports are available here: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2026-large-load-literature-review -Load forecasting -Data sources -Reliability and resource adequacy -Large load interconnection -Demand flexibility -Generation -Co-location -Data center location/infrastructure -Large load tariffs -Policy options -Maps and tools -Design and operations

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Collaborative Resource Allocation

Collaborative Resource Allocation Networking Environment (CRANE) Version 0.5 is a prototype created to prove the newest concept of using a distributed environment to schedule Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna times in a collaborative fashion. This program is for all space-flight and terrestrial science project users and DSN schedulers to perform scheduling activities and conflict resolution, both synchronously and asynchronously. Project schedulers can, for the first time, participate directly in scheduling their tracking times into the official DSN schedule, and negotiate directly with other projects in an integrated scheduling system. A master schedule covers long-range, mid-range, near-real-time, and real-time scheduling time frames all in one, rather than the current method of separate functions that are supported by different processes and tools. CRANE also provides private workspaces (both dynamic and static), data sharing, scenario management, user control, rapid messaging (based on Java Message Service), data/time synchronization, workflow management, notification (including emails), conflict checking, and a linkage to a schedule generation engine. The data structure with corresponding database design combines object trees with multiple associated mortal instances and relational database to provide unprecedented traceability and simplify the existing DSN XML schedule representation. These technologies are used to provide traceability, schedule negotiation, conflict resolution, and load forecasting from real-time operations to long-range loading analysis up to 20 years in the future. CRANE includes a database, a stored procedure layer, an agent-based middle tier, a Web service wrapper, a Windows Integrated Analysis Environment (IAE), a Java application, and a Web page interface.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications in Modern Power Systems

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.

power system applications, machine learning (ML), ↗

Best Practices in Electricity Load Modeling and Forecasting for Long-Term Power System Planning

This document highlights the best practices on data acquisition and management, modeling and stakeholder engagement required for enhanced load modeling and forecasting. Each section is interspersed with case studies to highlight lessons from different country contexts to highlight both cross-cutting and location specific best practices needed to conduct robust load modeling and forecasting.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Open Source Evaluation Framework for Solar Forecasting

The Solar Forecast Arbiter is an open-source evaluation framework for solar forecasting. The framework enables evaluations of solar irradiance, solar power, and net-load forecasts that are impartial, repeatable and auditable. The Solar Forecast Arbiter addresses stakeholder-informed use cases including evaluation of forecast skill, comparisons to reference data sets, private forecast trials, and evaluation of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework includes a data validation toolkit, reference data sources, data privacy protocols, and benchmark forecast capabilities for intra-hour and day ahead forecast horizons. Reports and metrics communicate the relative merits of the test and benchmark forecasts. The reports are created from standardized templates and include graphics for qualitatively evaluating deterministic and probabilistic forecasts and standard metrics for quantitatively evaluating forecasts. The Solar Forecast Arbiter is designed to support all solar forecasting stakeholders, including Solar Forecasting 2 Topic Area 2 and Topic Area 3 teams.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗