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64 records · Page 4

Multi-Fidelity Heating Prediction of Adaptable, Deployable Entry Placement Technology Vehicles

The objective of this work was to investigate a multi-fidelity modeling approach to accurately and efficiently predict the laminar and turbulent convective heating on adaptable, deployable entry placement technology vehicles in Mars entry. A previously developed co-Kriging based multi-fidelity modeling approach was used to model the laminar and turbulent convective heat fluxes at several surface locations along the vehicle, including the rib sections. The laminar convective heat flux multi-fidelity model was found to have a mean convective heat rate error of approximately 3% when compared to high-fidelity CFD simulations. The turbulent convective heat flux multi-fidelity model was found to have a mean convective heat rate error of approximately 8% when compared to high-fidelity CFD simulations. Compared to a single fidelity model, the multi-fidelity model required approximately one-third the number of high-fidelity model evaluations to obtain the same accuracy level. The computational cost of evaluating the multi-fidelity model was approximately five orders of magnitude less than one high-fidelity model simulation.

Mario Santos

The INSTEP Monitoring Network: Merging High-and-Low Cost Measurements to Characterize California Wildfires

Despite challenges with data quality and scope, low-cost sensor networks have skyrocketed in popularity over the last 15 years, making air quality data available on refined spatial scales. More recently, studies have leveraged both high and low-quality instruments to create stronger “hybrid” models, with most studies focusing on particulate matter. Low-cost measurements typically represent ground-level emissions only, providing context for human health issues from climate change-driven events such as wildfires. Since low-cost sensors’ capabilities are localized, daily events and microclimates tend to dominate the data rather than larger regional or atmospheric trends. Likewise, their low cost explains their high uncertainty. In contrast, some regulatory-grade instruments produce column measurements as well, providing reliable information on a broader scope. To bridge this gap while expanding into gas-phase measurements, we deployed 12 air quality sensor packages in California, USA during the 2022 wildfire season. These INSTEP (Inexpensive Network Sensor Technology Exploring Pollution) monitors measure carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and several hydrocarbons including methane (CH4) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Half of the monitors were co-located with remote sensing spectrometers: NASA Pandora and Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). The overlap in pollutants includes NO2, O3, and HCHO between the INSTEP monitors and the Pandora column measurements. TCCON covers column CO, CO2, and CH4, rounding out our comparison. Most of the monitors were distributed throughout the San Francisco Bay area, and an additional three were located within 100 km of Los Angeles. The sites ranged in geographic and population characteristics, including desert, mountainous, coastal, and urban locations. Since varying environmental conditions such as temperature and pressure are known to challenge sensor performance, we will apply newer sensor “calibration” techniques meant to combat this. We will normalize our sensor signals by z-scoring them prior to applying a single calibration model in the form of multivariate linear regression or an artificial neural network. While this technique has been validated for the hydrocarbon and ozone sensor types (metal oxide), it has not yet been tested on electrochemical and non-dispersive infrared sensors, which are also used in the INSTEP monitors. This will serve as a test to see if this normalization technique – or another – is most effective in accounting for environmental differences among sensors. Related data analysis efforts have found success with a variety of geospatial analysis techniques, including weighted network models in which high-quality instruments are given higher weights than their low-cost counterparts. Our preliminary analysis will focus on kriging, which uses a Gaussian algorithm to assign weights, providing estimated pollution levels at locations between monitors. Smoke trajectory and evolution will also be considered using both measurement types. We also aim to baseline subtract our emission estimates from each region to determine which portion of emissions are regional and local, further characterizing burn differences in northern and southern California fires. Future directions include using INSTEP jointly with TEMPO satellite data, and mobile deployments on aircraft and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV).

Low-cost sensors

Sampling of Space-Based Observations of XCO2 Associated With Biomass Burning Events

- The OCO-2 Level 3 assimilation product fills in gaps where OCO-2 does not have observations. - Although the Level 3 clearly shows the increased CO2 over the Amazon associated with the September 2017 biomass burning event, the total amount of CO2 may be underestimated because of a sampling bias. - The TCCON observations match fairly well with the OCO-2 observations and can be used to estimate the accuracy of the OCO observations and the temporal sampling bias. However, since it is a remotely sensed product, it may suffer the same sampling biases associated with biomass burning events as OCO-2. - Although aircraft data show that there is a significant variation in xCO2 with altitude, they suggest the OCO-2 fused products created by kriging may be better than the assimilated product at detecting large deviations from the average state on daily and regional scales.

Thomas J. Hearty, III

Efficient Global Optimization with Gradient Finish for Design Under Uncertainty

The Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) algorithm is extended to include a gradient-descent-based finish upon reaching a threshold value of the expected improvement function. Emphasis is placed on efficient evaluation of local gradients using Kriging models during the gradient-based finish to enable application to design under uncertainty (DUU) problems. The modified algorithm is applied to both the well-known Rosenbrock function and a more challenging hypersonic inlet design under uncertainty problem. Results demonstrate improvement in locating the global optimum compared to the classical implementation of EGO, as well as a reduced number of true function evaluations compared to pure gradient-based algorithms. For the Rosenbrock function, a global optimum is returned using an average of 12% fewer function calls than a gradient-based optimizer with comparable tolerances. For the design under uncertainty problem, a global optimum is found using an average of 75% fewer function calls than a gradient-based optimizer. Global Pareto fronts of multiobjective DUU problems are obtained at little additional cost after a single optimization is complete.

Optimization

Sampling Biases of Space-Based Observations of XCO2 Associated With South American Biomass Burning Events During 2017-2020

- We examine time series of OCO-2 xCO 2 observations coincident with other remotely sensed and in-situ observations to better understand external sampling effects. - The OCO-2 Level 3 assimilation product fills in gaps where OCO-2 does not have observations. - Although the Level 3 clearly shows the increased CO 2 over the Amazon associated with the September 2017 biomass burning event, the total amount of CO 2 may be underestimated because of a sampling bias. - Since TCCON is also a remotely sensed product, it may suffer the same sampling biases associated with biomass burning events as OCO-2. - Aircraft data show that there is significant variation in xCO 2 with altitude. - The OCO-2 fused products created by kriging may be better than the assimilated product at detecting deviations from the average state.

OCO

PRODEM: An Annual Series of Summer DEMs (2019 through 2022) of the Marginal Areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving in response to changing weather, season, climate, and ice dynamics. However, current digital elevation models (DEMs) for the ice sheet are usually based on data from a multi-year period, thus obscuring these changes over time. Here we present four 500 m resolution summer DEMs (PRODEMs) of the Greenland Ice Sheet marginal zone for 2019 through 2022. The PRODEMs cover the marginal zone from the ice edge to 50 km inland, hence capturing all Greenland outlet glaciers. Each PRODEM is based on data fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry using regionally varying kriging of elevation anomalies relative to ArcticDEM. The PRODEMs are validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and PRODEM19 is further validated against an external data set, showcasing their ability to correctly represent surface elevations within the associated spatially varying prediction uncertainties. We observe a general lowering of surface elevations during the 4-year PRODEM period, but the spatial pattern of change is highly complex and with annual changes superimposed. The PRODEMs enable detailed studies of the marginal ice sheet elevation changes. With their high spatio-temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will be of value to a wide range of researchers and users studying ice sheet dynamics and monitoring how the ice sheet responds to changing environmental conditions. PRODEMs from summer 2019 through 2022 are available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/52WWHG (Winstrup, 2024), and we plan to annually update the product henceforth.

Digital Elevation Models

Characterization of Coal Refuse Sites in West Virginia: Stream Loss, Volume Estimation, and Land Cover Analysis for Restoration Feasibility

Coal refuse disposal across Appalachia has resulted in widespread environmental degradation, including stream burial, landscape destabilization, and long-term hydrologic impacts. This study provides a GIS-based spatial characterization of 623 coal refuse sites in West Virginia, evaluating their potential for ecological and economic restoration. Stream loss was quantified through digitization of historic topographic maps, revealing over 194,500 meters of historically present streams lost, with 105,000 meters directly buried beneath refuse piles. Volume estimation using empirical Bayesian kriging and modern LiDAR surfaces indicated approximately 1.96 billion cubic meters of deposited refuse. Land cover analysis based on NAIP-derived classification showed that 48% of the total site area was forested, while 15% remained barren. These results highlight not only the environmental footprint of legacy refuse deposits but also their potential for restoration through stream daylighting and beneficial reuse. Emerging opportunities, including rare earth element recovery and mitigation banking, may offer economic incentives to facilitate reclamation. This work establishes a spatial framework to prioritize refuse sites for restoration, balancing ecological uplift with feasible material management strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process

OpenMDAO: Framework for Flexible Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis and Optimization Methods

The OpenMDAO project is underway at NASA to develop a framework which simplifies the implementation of state-of-the-art tools and methods for multidisciplinary design, analysis and optimization. Foremost, OpenMDAO has been designed to handle variable problem formulations, encourage reconfigurability, and promote model reuse. This work demonstrates the concept of iteration hierarchies in OpenMDAO to achieve a flexible environment for supporting advanced optimization methods which include adaptive sampling and surrogate modeling techniques. In this effort, two efficient global optimization methods were applied to solve a constrained, single-objective and constrained, multiobjective version of a joint aircraft/engine sizing problem. The aircraft model, NASA's nextgeneration advanced single-aisle civil transport, is being studied as part of the Subsonic Fixed Wing project to help meet simultaneous program goals for reduced fuel burn, emissions, and noise. This analysis serves as a realistic test problem to demonstrate the flexibility and reconfigurability offered by OpenMDAO.

Kriging

Visualization and Quantification of Wind Induced Variability in Hydrogen Clouds Following Releases of Liquid Hydrogen: Preprint

Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.

HSR&D