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NASA NTRS2019

SO2 Emission Estimates Using OMI SO2 Retrievals for 2005-2017

SO2 column densities from OMI provide important information on emission trends and missing sources, but there are discrepancies between different retrieval products. We employ three OMI SO2 retrieval products (NASA standard (SP), NASA prototype, and BIRA) to study the magnitude and trend of SO2 emissions. SO2 column densities from these retrievals are most consistent when viewing angles and solar zenith angles are small, suggesting more robust emission estimates in summer and at low latitudes. We then apply a hybrid 4DVar/mass balance emission inversion to derive monthly SO2 emissions from the NASA SP and BIRA products. Compared to HTAPv2 emissions in 2010, both posterior emission estimates are lower in US, India and Southeast China, but show different changes of emissions in North China Plain. The discrepancies between monthly NASA and BIRA posterior emissions in 2010 are less than or equal to 17% in China and 34% in India. SO2 emissions increase from 2005 to 2016 by 35% (NASA) 48% (BIRA) in India, but decrease in China by 23% (NASA) 33% (BIRA) since 2008. Compared to insitu measurements, the posterior GEOSChem surface SO2 concentrations have reduced NMB in China, the US, and India but not in South Korea in 2010. BIRA posteriors have better consistency with the annual growth rate of surface SO2 measurement in China and spatial variability of SO2 concentration in China, South Korea and India, whereas NASA SP posteriors have better seasonality. These evaluations demonstrate the capability to recover SO2 emissions using OMI observations.

Data assimilation↗

NASA NTRS2019

A Tactical Scheduler for Surface Metering Under Minimum Departure Interval Restrictions

Minimum Departure Interval (MDI) and Miles-In-Trail (MIT) are common traffic management tools. They both require minimum separation between departures to meet specific traffic conditions. The MDI restriction is a time separation requirement between departures, usually on the same Standard Instrument Departure (SID), whereas the MIT restriction is a distance separation requirement between aircraft, including but not limited to departure flights, to meet specific criteria associated with flight path or destination. At Incheon International Airport (IATA code: ICN) in South Korea, MDIs are imposed on 92% of departure flights. They involve specific criteria including not only having identical SID, but also satisfying other conditions, imposed on the flight path and destination. To address complicated MDI constraints, Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) has been developing and improving a tactical scheduler for surface metering at ICN to provide appropriate target times for pushbacks and takeoffs for departure flights under MDIs. This paper describes the MDI requirements at ICN, the development of a heuristic scheduling algorithm to work with the MDI restrictions, and the performance evaluation of the algorithm through fast-time simulations. The performance evaluation results indicate that the proposed heuristic algorithm can provide the surface metering schedules that comply with the MDI restrictions without significant performance degradation.

DMAN (Departure Management)↗

NASA NTRS2019

Validation, Comparison, and Integration of GOCI, AHI, MODIS, MISR, and VIIRS Aerosol Optical Depth Over East Asia During the 2016 KORUS-AQ Campaign

Recently launched multichannel geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite sensors, such as the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) and the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), provide aerosol products over East Asia with high accuracy, which enables the monitoring of rapid diurnal variations and the transboundary transport of aerosols. Most aerosol studies to date have used low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite sensors, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), with a maximum of one or two overpass daylight times per day from midlatitudes to low latitudes. Thus, the demand for new GEO observations with high temporal resolution and improved accuracy has been significant. In this study the latest versions of aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from three LEO sensors – MODIS (Dark Target, Deep Blue, and MAIAC), MISR, and the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), along with two GEO sensors (GOCI and AHI), are validated, compared, and integrated for a period during the Korea–United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) field campaign from 1 May to 12 June 2016 over East Asia. The AOD products analyzed here generally have high accuracy with high R (0.84–0.93) and low RMSE (0.12–0.17), but their error characteristics differ according to the use of several different surface-reflectance estimation methods. High-accuracy near-real-time GOCI and AHI measurements facilitate the detection of rapid AOD changes, such as smoke aerosol transport from Russia to Japan on 18–21 May 2016, heavy pollution transport from China to the Korean Peninsula on 25 May 2016, and local emission transport from the Seoul Metropolitan Area to the Yellow Sea in South Korea on 5 June 2016. These high-temporal-resolution GEO measurements result in more representative daily AOD values and make a greater contribution to a combined daily AOD product assembled by median value selection with a 0.5∘×0.5∘ grid resolution. The combined AOD is spatially continuous and has a greater number of pixels with high accuracy (fraction within expected error range of 0.61) than individual products. This study characterizes aerosol measurements from LEO and GEO satellites currently in operation over East Asia, and the results presented here can be used to evaluate satellite measurement bias and air quality models.

Myungje Choi↗

NASA NTRS2020

Understanding and Improving Model Representation of Aerosol Optical Properties for a Chinese Haze Event Measured During KORUS-AQ

KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM2.5, often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m2 g−1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (f(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm−3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm−3) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.

Pablo E. Saide↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of NO2 Observations During DISCOVER-AQ and KORUS-AQ Field Campaigns

NASA’s Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ, conducted in 2011–2014) campaign in the United States and the joint NASA and National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) Korea–United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ, conducted in 2016) in South Korea were two field study programs that provided comprehensive, integrated data sets of airborne and surface observations of atmospheric constituents, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), with the goal of improving the interpretation of spaceborne remote sensing data. Various types of NO2 measurements were made, including in situ concentrations and column amounts of NO2 using ground- and aircraft-based instruments, while NO2 column amounts were being derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the Aura satellite. This study takes advantage of these unique datasets by first evaluating in situ data taken from two different instruments on the same aircraft platform, comparing coincidently sampled profile-integrated columns from aircraft spirals with remotely sensed column observations from ground-based Pandora spectrometers, intercomparing column observations from the ground (Pandora), aircraft (in situ vertical spirals), and space (OMI), and evaluating NO2 simulations from coarse Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) and high-resolution regional models. We then use these data to interpret observed discrepancies due to differences in sampling and deficiencies in the data reduction process. Finally, we assess satellite retrieval sensitivity to observed and modeled a priori NO2 profiles. Contemporaneous measurements from two aircraft instruments that likely sample similar air masses generally agree very well but are also found to differ in integrated columns by up to 31.9 %. These show even larger differences with Pandora, reaching up to 53.9 %, potentially due to a combination of strong gradients in NO2 fields that could be missed by aircraft spirals and errors in the Pandora retrievals. OMI NO2 values are about a actor of 2 lower in these highly polluted environments due in part to inaccurate retrieval assumptions (e.g., a priori pro-files) but mostly to OMI’s large footprint (>312 km2).

Nitrogen dioxide↗

NASA NTRS2022

Limitations in Representation of Physical Processes Prevents Successful Simulation of PM2.5 During KORUS-AQ

High levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in East Asia often exceed local air quality standards. Observations from the Korea United States-Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May and June 2016 showed that development of extreme pollution (haze) occurred through a combination of long-range transport and favorable meteorological conditions that enhanced local production of PM2.5. Atmospheric models often have difficulty simulating PM2.5 chemical composition during haze, which is of concern for the development of successful control measures. We use observations from KORUS-AQ to examine the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate PM2.5 composition throughout the campaign and identify the mechanisms driving the pollution event. At the surface, the model underestimates sulfate by -64% but overestimates nitrate by +36%. The largest underestimate in sulfate occurs during the pollution event, where models typically struggle to generate elevated sulfate concentrations due to missing heterogeneous chemistry in aerosol liquid water in the polluted boundary layer. Hourly surface observations show that the model nitrate bias is driven by an overestimation of the nighttime peak. In the model, nitrate formation is limited by the supply of nitric acid, which is biased by +100% against aircraft observations. We hypothesize that this is due to a large missing sink, which we implement here as a factor of five increase in dry deposition. We show that the resulting increased deposition velocity is consistent with observations of total nitrate as a function of photochemical age. The model does not account for factors such as the urban heat island effect or the heterogeneity of the built-up urban landscape resulting in insufficient model turbulence and surface area over the study area that likely results in insufficient dry deposition. Other species such as NH3 could be similarly affected but were not measured during the campaign. Nighttime production of nitrate is driven by NO2 hydrolysis in the model, while observations show that unexpectedly elevated nighttime ozone (not present in the model) should result in N2O5 hydrolysis as the primary pathway. The model is unable to represent nighttime ozone due to an overly rapid collapse of the afternoon mixed layer and excessive titration by NO. We attribute this to missing nighttime heating driving deeper nocturnal mixing that would be expected to occur in a city like Seoul. This urban heating is not considered in air quality models run at large enough scales to treat both local chemistry and long-range transport. Key model failures in simulating nitrate, mainly overestimated daytime nitric acid, incorrect representation of nighttime chemistry, and an overly shallow and insufficiently turbulent nighttime mixed layer, exacerbate the model’s inability to simulate the buildup of PM2.5 during haze pollution. To address the underestimate in sulfate most evident during the haze event, heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 is added to the model which previously only considered aqueous production of sulfate from SO2 in cloud water. Implementing a simple parameterization of this chemistry improves the model abundance of sulfate but degrades the SO2 simulation implying that emissions are underestimated. We find that improving model simulations of sulfate has direct relevance to determining local vs. transboundary contributions to PM2.5. During the haze pollution event, the inclusion of heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 decreases the fraction of PM2.5 attributable to long-range transport from 66% to 54%. Locally-produced sulfate increased from 1% to 25% of locally-produced PM2.5, implying that local emissions controls would have a larger effect than previously thought. However, this additional uptake of SO2 is coupled to the model nitrate prediction which affects the aerosol liquid water abundance and chemistry driving sulfate-nitrate-ammonium partitioning. An additional simulation of the haze pollution with heterogeneous uptake of SO2 to aerosol and simple improvements to the model nitrate simulation results in 30% less sulfate due to 40% less nitrate and aerosol water, and results in an underestimate of sulfate during the haze event. Future studies need to better consider the impact of model physical processes such as dry deposition and nighttime boundary layer mixing on the simulation of nitrate and the effect of improved nitrate simulations on the overall simulation of secondary inorganic aerosol (sulfate+nitrate+ammonium) in East Asia. Foreign emissions are rapidly changing, increasing the need to understand the impact of local emissions on PM2.5 in South Korea to ensure continued air quality improvements.

Katherine R. Travis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selection and Characterization of the Landing Site for NASA CLPS PRISM1 Lunar Lander Mission CP-11

The NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program delivery known as "CP-11" will carry multiple payloads to the lunar surface in 2024. The payloads include (a) Lunar Vertex, the first science suite sponsored by the NASA Science Mission Directorate's Payloads and Research Investigations on the Surface of the Moon (PRISM) program, (b) JPL's CADRE (Cooperative Autonomous Distributed Robotic Explorers), a project from the NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate's Game Changing Development Program, (c) the Lunar Space Environment Monitor (LUSEM), a high-energy particle detector from the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) and funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT of Korea (MSIT), and (d) MPAc (MoonLIGHT Pointing Actuator), a laser retro-reflector developed by the National Institute for Nuclear Physics (INFN-LNF) and funded by the European Space Agency.

David T. Blewett↗

NASA NTRS2023

Highly Resolved Mapping of NO 2 Vertical Column Densities From GeoTASO Measurements Over a Megacity and Industrial Area During the KORUS-AQ Campaign

The Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) campaign is a joint study between the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the South Korea National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) to monitor megacity and transboundary air pollution around the Korean Peninsula using airborne and ground-based measurements. Here, tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) slant column density (SCD) measurements were retrieved from Geostationary Trace and Aerosol Sensor Optimization (GeoTASO) L1B data during the KORUS-AQ campaign (2 May to 10 June 2016). The retrieved SCDs were converted to tropospheric vertical column densities using the air mass factor (AMF) obtained from a radiative transfer calculation with trace gas profiles and aerosol property inputs simulated with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and surface reflectance data obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the first time, we examine highly resolved (250 m × 250 m resolution) tropospheric NO 2 over the Seoul and Busan metropolitan regions and the industrial region of Anmyeon. We reveal that the maximum NO 2 vertical column densities (VCDs) were 4.94×10 16 and 1.46×10 17 molec. cm −2 at 09:00 and 15:00 LT over Seoul, respectively, 6.86×10 16 and 4.89×10 16 molec. cm −2 in the morning and afternoon over Busan, respectively, and 1.64×10 16 molec. cm −2 over Anmyeon. The VCDs retrieved from the GeoTASO airborne instrument were correlated with those obtained from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) (r=0.48), NASA's Pandora Spectrometer System (r=0.91), and NO 2 mixing ratios obtained from in situ measurements (r=0.07 in the morning, r=0.26 in the afternoon over the Seoul, and r>0.56 over Busan). Based on our results, GeoTASO is useful for identifying NO 2 hotspots and their spatial distribution in highly populated cities and industrial areas.

Gyo-Hwang Choo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biomass Burning and Fossil Fuel Apportionment via Greenhouse Gas Enhancement Ratios Over Southeast Asia as Measured During ASIA-AQ

As Southeast Asian economies continue to grow, so will their contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, driven primarily by increases in fossil fuel combustion. Left unchecked, these emissions will negatively impact air quality and climate, therefore it is imperative that emission sources are properly identified and accounted for in emission inventories. Enhancement ratios of GHGs have been used to characterize regional emissions as either dominated by fossil fuel combustion or biomass burning. In particular, airborne assessment of short-term continuous emission ratios has proven useful to quantify relative contributions of fossil fuel and biomass burning to GHG emissions. The 2024 Airborne and Satellite Investigation of Asian Air Quality (ASIA-AQ) campaign, flying over the Philippines, Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan, sampled a variety of emissions including significant biomass burning, local urban pollution, and transport events. This work will explore the impact of GHG emissions on the distinctive pollution of the sampled locations. As airborne GHG measurements over Southeast Asia are scarce if not nonexistent, this work provides a crucial link between established ground-based measurements and state-of-the-art satellite observations such as those from South Korea’s Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS). Analysis of GHG enhancement ratios in East Asia will lead to more accurate emission inventories which can be used to implement more effective GHG control measures leading to improved air quality and minimizing the effect on climate.

ASIA-AQ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Summary Report of the FY24 DOE Contributions to the GIF VHTR CMVB

The Generation-IV Forum (GIF) Very-High-Temperature Reactor-Computational Methods Validation and Benchmark (VHTR-CMVB) initiative, involving organizations from Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) (South Korea), Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University (INET) (China), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (U.S.), Joint Research Centre (JRC) (Europe), and Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) (Japan), is dedicated to the verification and validation of tools for High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) analysis, using data shared by Computational Methods Validation and Benchmark (CMVB) signatories. For FY24, the US DOE CMVB has committed to several critical activities. Under WP1, led by the US, the integration of the High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor - Pebble-Bed Module (HTR-PM) Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) into the comparative PIRT is progressing, with a new draft of the comparison tables issued earlier this year and currently being utilized by INET for their contribution. Neutronic validation efforts under WP3 include the preparation of the burnup analysis benchmark, preliminary calculations, and the development of reference models and results. In WP2, a validation exercise for hot gas mixing in the lower plenum of HTR-PM is in progress, using experimental data from INET (China) to validate modeling approaches. A model of the experimental facility has been developed using StarCCM+, with initial calculations slated for presentation at the GIF CMVB meeting this fall. Another WP2 activity focuses on validating numerical models for air-cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) with experimental data from the Wisconsin Madison RCCS facility. A high-fidelity model, developed using NEK-RS, is currently being validated with available data from a low power forced convection test. These efforts are aimed at enhancing and confirming the accuracy of HTGR analysis tools, ensuring their alignment with experimental data and regulatory requirements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discrete fracture network model benchmarks developed and applied in a DECOVALEX-2023 repository performance assessment study

This study presents newly developed benchmarks for modeling flow and transport within discrete fracture networks (DFNs) and useful methods for analyzing the results. The new benchmarks are designed to test modeling approaches for use in probabilistic performance assessment models of deep geologic repositories in fractured rock. The benchmarks simulate flow and transport through a 1 km 3 block of fractured rock. The first simulates migration of a short pulse of tracer through a simple network of four intersecting fractures. The second adds 1089 stochastically generated fractures. The third changes the pulse to a continuous point source. Evaluation of model performance relies on moment analysis and comparison of the results of different models. The expected nondimensional first moment of the conservative tracer for each benchmark is 1. The benchmarks were simulated by teams from Canada, Czechia, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and the United States as part of a DECOVALEX-2023 study (decovalex.org). The teams used various approaches, including explicit DFN modeling, DFN upscaling to an equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM), and a combination of both methods. Transport mechanisms are modeled using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Results demonstrate strong agreement among the models in breakthrough behavior up to the 75th percentile. Significant deviations in first moments and well-clustered outputs led to the identification of inaccuracies in several models. Such findings exemplify the benefit of exercising these benchmarks and using the presented methods to test DFN flow and transport models.

Benchmark↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scientific Directions for Cloud Chamber Research: Instrumentation, Modeling, New Chambers, and Emerging Chamber Concepts

The Workshop on Scientific Directions for Cloud Chamber Research was held 13-14 July 2024 at the National Institute for Meteorological Sciences, Jeju, South Korea. Here, over 75 scientists from 13 countries gathered to learn about and discuss the latest scientific research results from large laboratory cloud chamber facilities, as well as new developments in cloud chamber instrumentation and modeling efforts, and emerging cloud chamber designs that will open new scientific research directions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population

Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.

computer vision↗

DOE OSTI2025

PySolate : A Python‐Based Thresholding Tool to Denoise or Designal Seismic Waveforms Based on the Continuous Wavelet Transform

PySolate is a Python‐based toolset that implements the continuous wavelet transform and nonlinear thresholding operations to denoise or designal seismic data, following Langston and Mousavi (2019). This filtering approach can remove microseismic noise to isolate intermediate‐period seismic signals that are key to enabling full‐waveform modeling and analysis of smaller‐magnitude regional events. This approach is best for the application to signals with frequency or time separation of signal and noise, in contrast to Fourier analysis, which is effective when signal and noise are separated in frequency. We demonstrate the Python toolset using the six announced Democratic People’s Republic of Korea declared nuclear tests, showing the effectiveness of isolating the seismic signal compared to standard bandpass filtering. In conclusion, we also demonstrate the ease of using the toolset with any Python processing tools.

Asia↗

DOE OSTI2025

The HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic: merging regional and global monthly emissions (2000–2020) to support air quality modelling and policies

This study, performed under the umbrella of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP), responds to the need of the global and regional atmospheric modelling community of having a mosaic emission inventory of air pollutants that conforms to specific requirements: global coverage, long time series, spatially distributed emissions with high time resolution, and a high sectoral resolution. The mosaic approach of integrating official regional emission inventories based on locally reported data, with a global inventory based on a globally consistent methodology, allows modellers to perform simulations of a high scientific quality while also ensuring that the results remain relevant to policymakers. HTAP_v3.2, an ad-hoc global mosaic of anthropogenic inventories, is an update to the HTAP_v3 global mosaic inventory and has been developed by integrating official inventories over specific areas (North America, Europe, Asia including China, Japan and Korea) with the independent Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory for the remaining world regions. The results are spatially and temporally distributed emissions of SO 2 , NO x , CO, NMVOC, NH 3 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , Black Carbon (BC), and Organic Carbon (OC), with a spatial resolution of 0.1 × 0.1° and time intervals of months and years covering the period 2000–2020 (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17086684, Crippa, 2025, https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_htap_v32, last access: 27 October 2025). The emissions are further disaggregated to 16 anthropogenic emitting sectors. This paper describes the methodology applied to develop such an emission mosaic, reports on source allocation, differences among existing inventories, and best practices for the mosaic compilation. One of the key strengths of the HTAP_v3.2 emission mosaic is its temporal coverage, enabling the analysis of emission trends over the past two decades. The development of a global emission mosaic over such long time series represents a unique product for global air quality modelling and for better-informed policy making, reflecting the community effort expended by the TF-HTAP to disentangle the complexity of transboundary transport of air pollution.

Guizzardi, Diego [European Commission, Ispra (Ital↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tau Positron Emission Tomography for Predicting Dementia in Individuals With Mild Cognitive Impairment

An accurate prognosis is especially pertinent in mild cognitive impairment (MCI), when individuals experience considerable uncertainty about future progression. To evaluate the prognostic value of tau positron emission tomography (PET) to predict clinical progression from MCI to dementia. This was a multicenter cohort study with external validation and a mean (SD) follow-up of 2.0 (1.1) years. Data were collected from centers in South Korea, Sweden, the US, and Switzerland from June 2014 to January 2024. Participant data were retrospectively collected and inclusion criteria were a baseline clinical diagnosis of MCI; longitudinal clinical follow-up; a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score greater than 22; and available tau PET, amyloid-β (Aβ) PET, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan less than 1 year from diagnosis. A total of 448 eligible individuals with MCI were included (331 in the discovery cohort and 117 in the validation cohort). None of these participants were excluded over the course of the study. Exposures included Tau PET, Aβ PET, and MRI. Positive results on tau PET (temporal meta–region of interest), Aβ PET (global; expressed in the standardized metric Centiloids), and MRI (Alzheimer disease [AD] signature region) was assessed using quantitative thresholds and visual reads. Clinical progression from MCI to all-cause dementia (regardless of suspected etiology) or to AD dementia (AD as suspected etiology) served as the primary outcomes. The primary analyses were receiver operating characteristics. In the discovery cohort, the mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.5) years, 191 (58%) were male, the mean (SD) MMSE score was 27.1 (1.9), and 110 individuals with MCI (33%) converted to dementia (71 to AD dementia). Only the model with tau PET predicted all-cause dementia (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70-0.80) better than a base model including age, sex, education, and MMSE score (AUC, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77; P = .02), while the models assessing the other neuroimaging markers did not improve prediction. In the validation cohort, tau PET replicated in predicting all-cause dementia. Compared to the base model (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69-0.82), prediction of AD dementia in the discovery cohort was significantly improved by including tau PET (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89; P < .001), tau PET visual read (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .001), and Aβ PET Centiloids (AUC, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.88; P = .03). In the validation cohort, only the tau PET and the tau PET visual reads replicated in predicting AD dementia. In this study, tau-PET showed the best performance as a stand-alone marker to predict progression to dementia among individuals with MCI. This suggests that, for prognostic purposes in MCI, a tau PET scan may be the best currently available neuroimaging marker.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories based on three design factors - Decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer and double-layer concept

This study investigates the enhancement of disposal efficiency for deep geological repositories (DGRs) based on three design factors: decay heat optimization, increased thermal limit of the buffer, and double-layer concept using coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical simulations. Decay heat optimization is achieved by iteratively emplacing spent nuclear fuels having the maximum and minimum decay heat in a canister. Disposal areas can be reduced by 20 % to 40 % compared to the current reference disposal system in Korea (KRS+) in accordance with the combinations of the three design factors, alleviating challenges in site selection for the DGR. This study additionally identifies an optimal layer spacing of 500 m for the double-layer concept in the viewpoint of the buffer temperature, where thermal interaction between the upper and lower layers nearly disappears. However, determining the ultimate disposal and layer spacing requires engineering judgement, considering not only the thermal performance of the DGR but also various factors such as cost and difficulties of the construction and rock mass stability. DGRs designed with an increased thermal limit of the buffer poses a greater probability of rock mass failure around disposal tunnels and deposition holes due to elevated thermal stresses. Densely arranged heat sources for the DGRs with enhanced disposal efficiency lead to larger temperature increase even at the far-field scale, raising a possibility of thermally driven fracture shear activation with associated hydraulic, mechanical, and seismic changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗