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60 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Unified Model of Kilonovae and Gamma-Ray Bursts in Binary Mergers Establishes Neutron Stars as the Central Engines of Short GRBs

We expand the theoretical framework by O. Gottlieb et al., which connects binary merger populations with long and short binary gamma-ray bursts (lbGRBs and sbGRBs, respectively), incorporating kilonovae (KNe) as a key diagnostic tool. We show that lbGRBs, powered by massive accretion disks around black holes (BHs), should be accompanied by bright, red KNe. In contrast, sbGRBs—if also powered by BHs—would produce fainter, red KNe, potentially biasing against their detection. However, magnetized hypermassive neutron star (HMNS) remnants that precede BH formation can produce jets with power (P NS ≈ 10 51 erg s –1 ) and Lorentz factor (Γ > 10) likely compatible with sbGRB observations, and would result in distinctly bluer KNe, offering a pathway to identifying the sbGRB central engine. Recent modeling by J. C. Rastinejad et al. found luminous red KNe consistently accompany lbGRBs, supporting their origin in BH-massive disk systems, likely following a short-lived HMNS phase. The preferential association of sbGRBs with comparably luminous KNe argues against the BH engine hypothesis for sbGRBs, while the bluer hue of these KNe provides additional support for an HMNS-driven mechanism. Within this framework, BH–NS mergers likely contribute exclusively to the lbGRB population with red KNe. Our findings suggest that GW170817 may, in fact, have been an lbGRB to on-axis observers. Finally, we discuss major challenges faced by alternative lbGRB progenitor models, such as white dwarf–NS or white dwarf–BH mergers and accretion-induced collapse forming magnetars, which fail to align with observed GRB timescales, energies, and KN properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Photon induced $K\Lambda $ production on the proton at $E_{\gamma} < 3$ GeV

The associated photoproduction of $K\Lambda$ from the proton for $E_{\gamma} < 3$ GeV is studied using an isobar model in which the non-resonant contributions corresponding to $s$, $t$, $u$ channel diagrams are obtained from a non-linear sigma model with chiral SU(3) symmetry. The model also predicts a contact term and its coupling strength in a natural way to preserve gauge symmetry. The parameters used are the pion decay constant $f_{\pi}$, vector and axial vector current couplings of the baryon octet in terms of the symmetric and antisymmetric couplings $D$ and $F$. In the non-resonant sector, the model is almost parameter free except a common cut-off parameter $\Lambda_{B}$, to describe the hadronic form factors at the strong kaon-nucleon-hyperon($KN\Lambda$) vertices. In the resonance sector, contribution from the various nucleon resonances($R$) in the $s$ channel, hyperon resonances($Y^{*}$) in the $u$ channel, and the kaon resonances($K^{*}$ and $K_{1}$) in the $t$ channel, which are present in the PDG having spin $\le \frac{3}{2}$ and mass $<2$ GeV with significant branching ratio in $K\Lambda$ decay mode have been considered. In the case of the nucleon resonances($R$), the couplings $\gamma NR$ at the electromagnetic vertices are determined in terms of the helicity amplitudes and the $RK\Lambda$ couplings at the strong vertices are determined by the partial decay width of the resonances($R$) decaying to $K\Lambda$. The strong and the electromagnetic couplings of $u$ and $t$ channel resonances are fitted to reproduce the experimental data of CLAS and SAPHIR. The numerical results are presented for the total and differential scattering cross sections and are compared with the available experimental data from CLAS and SAPHIR as well as with some of the recent theoretical models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Process Robustness of Friction Stir Dovetailing of AA7099 to Steel with In Situ AA6061 Interlayer Linking

Rolled homogeneous armor (RHA) steel was joined to aluminum alloy AA7099-T7451 with an interlayer of AA6061-T651 by single-pass friction stir dovetailing (FSD). The evolution of the AA7099/AA6061 and AA6061/steel interfacial microstructures and mechanical properties of the joints were examined. The AA6061 interlayer prevented Zn migration from the AA7099 to the steel during FSD and inhibited formation of brittle, Zn-rich, Fe-Al intermetallic compounds within the joint. The flow of the dissimilar aluminum alloys at the interface was controlled with a partially threaded friction stir welding pin and a dovetail geometric configuration optimized in previous work. The process robustness was explored to establish parameter windows by elucidating parametric effects on the relationship between process conditions and the joint’s microstructure and mechanical properties. Ranges of process forge force (50–70 kN) and interface temperature (475°C–515°C) consistently yielded joints with adequate performance. The load-carrying capacity in lap shear tensile tests was 2025 ? 100 N/mm.

Friction Stir Dovetailing, FSW, AA7099, AA6061, Ro↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Mechanical Test Frame for Property Evaluations at Cryogenic Temperature

On-board storage of hydrogen fuel has been designated as a limiting factor in the advancement of fuel cell technologies in the automotive industry. The use of cryo-compressed Type III pressure vessels presents one option to overcome this barrier. These multi-material vessels will be expected to perform at high pressure and extreme low temperatures, which creates a complex engineering design challenge. Many materials exhibit highly temperature-dependent properties, which must be considered for the efficient design of cryo-compressed pressure vessels. Complicating this issue, mechanical property data at cryogenic temperatures is sparse. This technical paper provides a description of a test apparatus commissioned specifically to help address this shortcoming. A mechanical test frame was retrofitted with a continuous flow cryostat capable to evaluate various mechanical properties throughout a broad temperature range of 25 °C to -269 °C with a load limit of 10 kN. An investigation of the thermomechanical properties of an epoxy resin was carried out as a demonstration.

Mechanical characterization, cryogenic pressure ve↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross-Section Measurements of Lambda(1405) Photoproduction from CLAS G12 Data

The nature of the Λ(1405) state remains an unsolved puzzle despite being predicted in 1959 and experimentally confirmed soon thereafter in 1961. It has an unusual line shape that deviates from a Breit-Wigner form, typically associated with resonances. Theoretical explanations of this first, excited Λ hyperon range from it being a three-quark state (uds) to being a dynamically generated, quasi-bound KN¯ molecule to consisting of a two-pole (two resonances) structure. None of these descriptions of Λ(1405) are universally accepted. Thus, there is a need for additional data on this notoriously cryptic state to help guide theoretical models. Measurements such as cross sections can assist to elucidate our understanding of resonances and how they’re produced. In this analysis, data from the CLAS g12 experiment were studied and differential cross-section measurements for Λ(1405) photoproduction were extracted. The results contained within this work are in relatively good agreement with prior photoproduction measurements (CLAS g11). Moreover, the energy range over which the existing measurements extend is expanded to higher values with these new results. These higher energy cross-section measurements should prove to be beneficial for subsequent analyses of Λ(1405).

Reed, Trevor↗