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Results for “Interpretable machine learning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Deep learning model for fast, science-based forecasting of fluid migration along faults in geologic carbon storage scenarios

Effective long-term geologic storage depends on robust site selection and credible, science-based forecasting of subsurface behavior to ensure storage integrity. For this work, we develop a deep learning–based reduced-order model (ROM) to quantify potential carbon dioxide (CO₂) and brine migration through geological faults. The ROM combines a Transformer model for binary classification and a Stacked Ensemble for regression, trained on a comprehensive dataset generated from 1400 physics-based reservoir simulations. Key geologic and operational parameters—including fault geometry, reservoir structure, and injection conditions—were systematically varied to capture a wide range of fluid migration scenarios. The ROM accurately predicts the onset of migration, cumulative migration volumes of both CO₂ and brine, and associated migration rates, as compared to an independent set of validation simulations, while significantly reducing computational cost compared to traditional simulation methods. Model performance was evaluated across diverse fault configurations, revealing that shallow reservoir geometry and fault angle are among the most influential factors governing migration behavior. Sensitivity analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) provided interpretability, revealing distinct patterns in how geological and operational features drive transient versus cumulative migration outcomes. The ROM’s ability to rapidly simulate fault migration scenarios enables efficient sensitivity analyses, scenario evaluations, and decision support for site selection and monitoring design. This approach enhances the safety, scalability, and long-term operational performance of geologic carbon storage (GCS) systems by providing a robust, interpretable tool for predicting subsurface fluid migration and assessing fault-related migration potential.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing climate pathways using feature importance on echo state networks

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but the downstream effects of such actions on a complex climate system are not well understood. The development of algorithmic techniques for quantifying relationships between source and impact variables related to a climate event (i.e., a climate pathway) would help inform policy decisions. Data-driven deep learning models have become powerful tools for modeling highly nonlinear relationships and may provide a route to characterize climate variable relationships. In this paper, we explore the use of an echo state network (ESN) for characterizing climate pathways. ESNs are a computationally efficient neural network variation designed for temporal data, and recent work proposes ESNs as a useful tool for forecasting spatiotemporal climate data. However, ESNs are noninterpretable black-box models along with other neural networks. The lack of model transparency poses a hurdle for understanding variable relationships. We address this issue by developing feature importance methods for ESNs in the context of spatiotemporal data to quantify variable relationships captured by the model. We conduct a simulation study to assess and compare the feature importance techniques, and we demonstrate the approach on reanalysis climate data. In the climate application, we consider a time period that includes the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo. This event was a significant stratospheric aerosol injection, which acts as a proxy for an anthropogenic stratospheric aerosol injection. Furthermore, we are able to use the proposed approach to characterize relationships between pathway variables associated with this event that agree with relationships previously identified by climate scientists.

black-box models↗
DOE OSTI2026

Graph theory inspired anomaly detection at the LHC

Designing model-independent anomaly detection algorithms for analyzing LHC data remains a central challenge in the search for new physics, due to the high dimensionality of collider events. In this work, we develop a graph autoencoder as an unsupervised, model-agnostic tool for anomaly detection, using the LHC Olympics dataset as a benchmark. By representing jet constituents as a graph, we introduce a method to systematically control the information available to the model through sparse graph constructions that serve as physically motivated inductive biases. Specifically, (1) we construct graph autoencoders based on locally rigid Laman graphs and globally rigid unique graphs, and (2) we explore the clustering of jet constituents into subjets to interpolate between high- and low-level input representations. We obtain the best performance, measured in terms of the Significance Improvement Characteristic curve for an intermediate level of subjet clustering and certain sparse unique graph constructions. We further investigate the role of graph connectivity in jet classification tasks. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging graph-theoretic insights to refine and increase the interpretability of machine learning tools for collider experiments.

Automation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic feature design for cycle life prediction of lithium-ion batteries during formation

Optimization of the formation step in lithium-ion battery manufacturing is challenging due to limited physical understanding of solid-electrolyte interphase formation and the long testing time (∼100 days) for cells to reach the end of life. We propose a systematic feature-design framework that requires minimal domain knowledge for accurate cycle life prediction during formation. By only using two simple Q (V) features designed from our framework, extracted from formation data without any additional diagnostic cycles, we achieved an average of 9.87% error for cycle life prediction. Here, the physics-based investigation guided by the two designed features shows that the voltage ranges identified by our framework capture the effects of formation temperature and microscopic-particle resistance heterogeneity. By designing highly predictive, robust, and interpretable features, our approach can accelerate industrial battery formation research, leveraging the interplay between data-driven feature design and mechanistic understanding.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

SRBench++: Principled Benchmarking of Symbolic Regression With Domain-Expert Interpretation

Symbolic regression searches for analytic expressions that accurately describe studied phenomena. The main promise of this approach is that it may return an interpretable model that can be insightful to users, while maintaining high accuracy. The current standard for benchmarking these algorithms is SRBench, which evaluates methods on hundreds of datasets that are a mix of real-world and simulated processes spanning multiple domains. At present, the ability of SRBench to evaluate interpretability is limited to measuring the size of expressions on real-world data, and the exactness of model forms on synthetic data. In practice, model size is only one of many factors used by subject experts to determine how interpretable a model truly is. Furthermore, SRBench does not characterize algorithm performance on specific, challenging sub-tasks of regression such as feature selection and evasion of local minima. In this work, we propose and evaluate an approach to benchmarking SR algorithms that addresses these limitations of SRBench by 1) incorporating expert evaluations of interpretability on a domain-specific task, and 2) evaluating algorithms over distinct properties of data science tasks. We evaluate 12 modern symbolic regression algorithms on these benchmarks and present an in-depth analysis of the results, discuss current challenges of symbolic regression algorithms and highlight possible improvements for the benchmark itself.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPS Certification by Analysis: Model-Driven Characterization of Properties and Failure in Woven Thermal Protection Systems

Woven, ablative thermal protection system (TPS) materials provide a robust option for aggressive (re)entries and thus have been baselined for the upcoming Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission’s Earth Entry System (EES). The reliability requirements for MSR-EES necessitate understanding of material property variability, which could be significant given the complex structure and anisotropic nature of properties in TPS weaves, as well as the response to potential impact with micrometeoroids or orbital debris during the EES re-entry. The TPS Certification by Analysis effort within the Entry Systems Modeling project seeks to provide computational models and analyses that support the certification against such material-based risks. For the present talk, focus will be given to the characterization of baseline woven TPS material properties and mechanical failure limits, which entails (1) use of computational techniques (e.g., machine learning) to interpret computed tomography images of the weave to generate representative structural models and (2) application of multiscale material modeling approaches to characterize thermomechanical and failure properties.

Justin B. Haskins↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deciphering the Solvation Structure of Aqueous ZnCl 2 Solutions from X-ray Absorption Spectra Using the Interpretable Graph Neural Network

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful pathways for predicting spectroscopic observables from atomic structures, but its broader impact depends on making model predictions interpretable in terms of physical and chemical principles. Here, we introduce a physics-guided graph neural network (GNN) model that predicts Zn K-edge X-ray spectroscopy (XAS) spectra of aqueous ZnCl 2 solutions. Training data are generated from ab initio XAS calculations on molecular dynamics snapshots obtained using a machine learning interatomic potential. The GNN reproduces experimental spectra across concentrations from dilute (<0.1 m) to highly concentrated (30 m, “water-in-salt”) regimes and scales efficiently to large, disordered liquid systems beyond the reach of conventional ab initio approaches. Gradient-based attribution analysis reveals that the model learns physically meaningful structure-spectrum relationships. Ligand-specific attributions reflect orbital hybridization patterns and the origin of the excitations derived from the density functional theory. Bond-length attributions recover spectral shifts consistent with multiple-scattering theory. Finally, this work bridges data-driven prediction with electronic-structure theory, establishing a general paradigm for interpretable ML that links atomic structure, electronic structure, and spectroscopic observables.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automatic Loss Factor Modeling and Attribution on Unlabeled PV Energy Data

We present a novel approach for modeling the loss factors of photovoltaic power generation systems (PV systems). This method is a white-box machine learning model built on convex optimization that is fast, interpretable, and auditable. It takes as an input the measured daily energy produced by the system, over a multi-year period, and returns a multiplicative decomposition model of the daily energy signal and full attribution of the total energy loss to each feature. The methods section of this paper has two major components: (1) the description of the signal decomposition (SD) model, expressed in the SD framework, and (2) the attribution of total energy losses via Shapley values. We validate the method on synthetic and open-source data sets and compare to similar methods from the literature.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Supervised and Interpretable Anomaly Detection Using Network Transformers

Machine learning and deep neural networks (DNNs) have been proposed as a tool to identify anomalies in computer network communications. However, due the obfuscated nature of off-the-shelf machine learning models, their output often does not provide enough information to isolate the source of the anomaly to take corrective measures. In this article, we introduce the network transformer (NeT), a DNN model for anomaly detection that incorporates the graph structure of the communication network in order to improve interpretability. Further, the presented approach has the following advantages: first, enhanced interpretability by incorporating the graph structure of computer networks; second, provides a hierarchical set of features that enables analysis at different levels of granularity; second, self-supervised training that does not require labeled data. The NeT model was evaluated on a set of anomalous scenarios executed in a real industrial control system. The presented approach successfully identified the anomalies, the devices affected, and the specific connections causing the anomalies, providing a data-driven hierarchical approach to analyze the behavior of a cyber network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generation of random geological models using multi-randomization for machine learning

Generating high-fidelity geological models is essential for advancing machine learning (ML) methods in automated seismic interpretation. For instance, seismic images paired with corresponding fault labels are foundational for ML-based fault detection from seismic migration sections. While several open-access datasets of random geological models exist, open-source tools specifically designed to produce large volumes of such models for ML applications remain scarce. To address this gap, we present RGM (Random Geological Model), an open-source software package for efficiently generating 2D and 3D synthetic geological models tailored for ML workflows. RGM supports the creation of diverse model components, including medium property distributions (P-/S-wave velocities and density), seismic reflectivity images (i.e., synthetic migration sections), relative geological time, and discrete fault attributes such as probability, dip, strike, rake, and displacement. It also accommodates the creation of complex geological features such as salt bodies and unconformities. The model generation algorithm employs a multi-randomization strategy, yielding an effectively infinite-dimensional model space that encompasses a wide range of geological scenarios and associated seismic features. Furthermore, RGM incorporates a method to generate synthetic elastic migration images using analytical elastic reflection coefficients combined with frequency-dependent scaling. This functionality enables the creation of training datasets for ML models that leverage elastic seismic images. RGM is implemented in modern object-oriented Fortran, allowing users to flexibly control statistical parameters governing model variability. We demonstrate the capability, performance, and geological realism of the package through comprehensive 2D and 3D examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning inversion from small-angle scattering for charged polymers

We develop Monte Carlo simulations for uniformly charged polymers and a machine learning algorithm to interpret the intra-polymer structure factor of the charged polymer system, which can be obtained from small-angle scattering experiments. The polymer is modeled as a chain of fixed-length bonds, where the connected bonds are subject to bending energy, and there is also a screened Coulomb potential for charge interaction between all joints. The bending energy is determined by the intrinsic bending stiffness, and the charge interaction depends on the interaction strength and screening length. All three contribute to the stiffness of the polymer chain and lead to longer and larger polymer conformations. The screening length also introduces a second length scale for the polymer besides the bending persistence length. To obtain the inverse mapping from the structure factor to these polymer conformation and energy-related parameters, we generate a large data set of structure factors by running simulations for a wide range of polymer energy parameters. We use principal component analysis to investigate the intra-polymer structure factors and determine the feasibility of the inversion using the nearest neighbor distance. We employ Gaussian process regression to achieve the inverse mapping and extract the characteristic parameters of polymers from the structure factor with low relative error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1991

Application of machine learning and expert systems to Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart interpretation

Statistical Process Control (SPC) charts are one of several tools used in quality control. Other tools include flow charts, histograms, cause and effect diagrams, check sheets, Pareto diagrams, graphs, and scatter diagrams. A control chart is simply a graph which indicates process variation over time. The purpose of drawing a control chart is to detect any changes in the process signalled by abnormal points or patterns on the graph. The Artificial Intelligence Support Center (AISC) of the Acquisition Logistics Division has developed a hybrid machine learning expert system prototype which automates the process of constructing and interpreting control charts.

Shewhart, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: "Towards CONUS-Wide ML-Augmented Conceptually-Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics"

This data package was generated to support the manuscript “Towards CONUS-Wide Machine Learning-Augmented Conceptually Interpretable Modeling of Catchment-Scale Precipitation-Storage-Runoff Dynamics.” It provides input files, model outputs, plotting data, scripts, notebooks, and documentation used to develop, evaluate, and reproduce Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP)-based hydrologic modeling experiments across 513 selected Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies in the United States (CAMELS-US) basins. The files are organized by modeling component and analysis purpose, including rainfall–runoff experiments, snow module experiments, coupled hydrologic-snow experiments, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) benchmark results, model skill metrics, initialization and epoch records, cell-state normalization files, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)-based model comparison files, and data used to generate manuscript figures. Tabular files can be opened using standard spreadsheet software or Python/R data-analysis tools. Python scripts, Jupyter notebooks, and selected MATLAB scripts are included for model execution, postprocessing, plotting, and statistical analysis. Quality assurance and quality control were conducted through the source-data selection and modeling workflow. Meteorological forcing, streamflow, and static catchment attributes were derived from the CAMELS-US dataset, and snow water equivalent data were derived from the University of Arizona (UA) Snow Water Equivalent dataset. Selected basins and time periods were screened during the associated research workflow to avoid missing observations or poor-quality cases. Static geospatial features were processed primarily using Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) and Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL) workflows. Additional details are provided in the associated manuscript and documentation.

ESS-DIVE CSV File Formatting Guidelines Reporting ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi‐Scale Model‐Informed Deep Learning for Plasma‐Nanoparticle Interaction

The Overarching Goal of this proposed research is to understand and quantitively determine the interactions between non-thermal plasma (hot electrons, reactive radicals, vibrationally excited species) and surface reactions on influencing the activity and selectivity of the desired reactions via developing multi-scale model informed deep learning algorithm. Investigating non-thermal plasma-surface interaction is feasible due to the low bulk temperature in the discharge region. To investigate the role of plasma-nanoparticle interaction on enhancing the reaction kinetics, we will focus on ammonia cracking to generate clean hydrogen over earth-abundant, non-critical metallic nanoparticles, which is of great significance for decarbonization. We hypothesize that (1) reactive radicals interacting with surface reaction species via Eley–Rideal mechanism will significantly lower the energetics of the potential rate-limiting step of nitrogen formation; (2) the surface will be charged heterogeneously under non-thermal plasma conditions and the charged site will lower the energetics of ammonia cracking through Langmuir– Hinshelwood mechanism; (3) vibrationally excited ammonia will further promote the initial N-H bond cleavage. To access the hypothesis, we will (1) reveal the surface charge effects on tunning the reaction energetics via interpretable, physics-informed deep learning accelerated density functional theory (DFT) calculations; (2) determine the reactive radicals interacting with surface reaction species on tuning the reaction energetics via DFT; (3) reveal the surface charge effects on tunning the reaction energetics via DFT and deep learning models, (4) quantify how vibrationally excited species, reactive radicals, and surface charging effects on enhancing the catalysis via developing DFT-based microkinetic modeling (MKM) and active learning. Deep and active learning of plasma-nanoparticle interactions effects on enhancing ammonia cracking to generate hydrogen represents a new paradigm for designing high performance plasma materials. The fundamental science of how plasma-nanoparticle interactions will change the plasma kinetics and will improve the energy efficiency for decarbonization and sustainability. The interpretable and physics-informed machine learning model will accelerate low temperature plasma chemistry and material discovery with physics rules and model interpretation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Graph Identification of Proteins in Tomograms (GRIP-Tomo) 2.0: Topologically aware classification for proteins

Cryo-electron tomography (cryo-ET) enables structural characterization of biomolecules under near-native conditions. Existing approaches for interpreting the resulting three-dimensional volumes are computationally expensive and have difficulty interpreting density associated with small proteins/complexes. To explore alternate approaches for identifying proteins in cryo-ET data we pursued a Graph Network and topologically invariant approach. Here, we report on a fast algorithm that classifies particles by searching for nuances of evolutionarily conversed motifs and the geometrical characteristics of protein structure. GRIP-Tomo 2.0 is a machine-learning pipeline that extracts interpretable topological features of protein structures within noisy experimental backgrounds. Compared to version 1.0, the new pipeline includes three upgrades that significantly improve performance including synthetic tomogram generation simulating realistic noise, graph-based persistent feature extraction as protein fingerprints, and high-performance computing acceleration. GRIP-Tomo 2.0 achieves over 90% accuracy in classifying between proteins and noise using both real and synthetic datasets which represents a foundational step toward advancing cryo-ET workflows and empowering automated visual proteomics.

Li, Chengxuan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting Transformers for Jet Tagging

Machine learning (ML) algorithms, particularly attention-based transformer models, have become indispensable for analyzing the vast data generated by particle physics experiments like ATLAS and CMS at the CERN LHC. Particle Transformer (ParT), a state-of-the-art model, leverages particle-level attention to improve jet-tagging tasks, which are critical for identifying particles resulting from proton collisions. This study focuses on interpreting ParT by analyzing attention heat maps and particle-pair correlations on the $\eta$-$\phi$ plane, revealing a binary attention pattern where each particle attends to at most one other particle. At the same time, we observe that ParT shows varying focus on important particles and subjets depending on decay, indicating that the model learns traditional jet substructure observables. These insights enhance our understanding of the model's internal workings and learning process, offering potential avenues for improving the efficiency of transformer architectures in future high-energy physics applications.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling the structure of molten salts: a review of high-energy x-ray diffraction (HEXRD) studies

High energy x-ray diffraction (HEXRD) has emerged as a pivotal technique for examining the structural properties of molten salts, which play vital roles in various high-temperature applications, such as energy storage, nuclear reactors, and metallurgy. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of recent progress in HEXRD studies of various molten salt systems, including molten halide salts, their mixtures, and salts with molecular anions, focusing on the insights into their atomic-scale arrangements. Additionally, we discuss methodological advancements that have improved the resolution and accuracy of HEXRD measurements, as well as recent developments in computational simulations, such as machine learning interatomic potentials, for interpreting results. This review aims to serve as a valuable resource for researchers in this field, offering a detailed overview of the progress of HEXRD studies of molten salts and suggesting pathways for further exploration.

Blockmon, Avery L. [Argonne National Laboratory (A↗