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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Panel Session 69: Ensuring Strong Return on Investment for DOE EM Technology Development: Global Views

This panel focused on DOE and Non-US Technology Development Projects discussing how they approach tech development to maximize return on investment (ROI). Successful examples were discussed. After the individual panelist's presentations, the three panelists were joined by Kurt Gerdes in discussing the genesis of this panel and why it is important. Panelists with presentations: Ensuring a Strong Return on Investment for DOE EM Technology Development (Anthony Banford) DOE Technology Development Projects that Provided a Strong Return on Investment (ROI (Mark Lesinski) Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (Gerry Triani) Decommissioning Situation of Nuclear Power Plant in Japan (Teruyuki Hirai)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluating Economic Impact: An Investment Tool for Large Language Model Integration in Workweek Management

This paper explores the development and application of an investment tool designed to quantify the costs and potential savings associated with integrating large language models (LLMs) into work week management optimization (WMO) within the nuclear industry. LLMs, with their advanced natural language processing capabilities, can significantly enhance various aspects of work management, such as problem identification, prioritization, planning, scheduling, information retrieval, and information summary. Our investment tool focuses on evaluating the return on investment (ROI) for LLM applications in WMO by considering four pivotal decision factors: model selection, application, user training, and hosting options. This paper details the development and implementation of the ROI model and illustrates its application through multiple case studies, analyzing the impact of different variables, such as work time saved, number of requests, and model performance, on the computed ROI over two years. The computed ROI is also compared over different hosting solutions. Our findings indicate that ROI increases with enhanced work time savings and optimal request load but can decline with high request volumes or increased model costs. This model aids decision-makers in the nuclear industry by providing a structured approach to assessing the economic viability and potential savings from integrating LLMs into WMO processes.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Optimizing investments in coupled offshore wind-electrolytic hydrogen storage systems in Denmark

In response to electricity markets with growing levels of wind energy production and varying electricity prices, this research examines incentives for investments in integrated renewable energy power systems. A strategy for using optimization methods for a power system consisting of wind turbines, electrolyzers, and hydrogen fuel cells is explored. This research reveals the investment potential of coupling offshore wind farms with different hydrogen systems. The benefits in terms of a return on investment are demonstrated with data from the Danish electricity markets. This research also investigates the tradeoffs between selling the hydrogen directly to customers or using it as a storage medium to re-generate electricity at a time when it is more valuable. Finally, this research finds that the most beneficial configuration is to produce hydrogen at a time that complements the wind farm and sell the hydrogen directly to end users.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Proactive Operations and Investment Planning via Stochastic Optimization to Enhance Power Systems’ Extreme Weather Resilience

We present scalable stochastic optimization approaches for improving power systems’ resilience to extreme weather events. We consider both proactive redispatch and transmission line hardening as alternatives for mitigating expected load shed due to extreme weather, resulting in large-scale stochastic linear programs (LPs) and mixed-integer linear programs (MILPs). We solve these stochastic optimization problems with progressive hedging (PH), a parallel, scenario-based decomposition algorithm. Our computational experiments indicate that our proposed method for enhancing power system resilience can provide high-quality solutions efficiently. With up to 128 scenarios on a 2,000-bus network, the operations (redispatch) and investment (hardening) resilience problems can be solved in approximately 6 min and 2 h of wall-clock time, respectively. Additionally, we solve the investment problems with up to 512 scenarios, demonstrating that the approach scales very well with the number of scenarios. Moreover, the method produces high quality solutions that result in statistically significant reductions in expected load shed. Our proposed approach can be augmented to incorporate a variety of other operational and investment resilience strategies, or a combination of such strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Communities and regularities in the behavior of investment fund managers

We analyze a large microlevel dataset on the full daily portfolio holdings and exposures of 22 complex investment funds to shed light on the behavior of professional investment fund managers. We introduce a set of quantitative attributes that capture essential distinctive features of manager allocation strategies and behaviors. These characteristics include turnover, attitude toward hedging, portfolio concentration, and reaction to external events, such as changes in market conditions and flows of funds. We find the existence and stability of three main investment attitude profiles: conservative, reactive, and proactive. The conservative profile shows low turnover and resilience against external shocks; the reactive one is more prone to respond to market condition changes; and members of the proactive profile frequently adjust their portfolio allocations, but their behavior is less affected by market conditions. We find that exogenous shocks temporarily alter this configuration, but communities return to their original state once these external shocks have been absorbed and their effects vanish.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

From Idea to Innovation: The Role of LDRD Investments in Sandia's Recent Successful B61 Experiments.

The Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program, authorized by U.S. Congress in 1991, enables Department of Energy (DOE) laboratories to devote a small portion of their research funding to high-risk and potentially high-payoff research. Because it is high-risk, LDRD-supported research may not lead to immediate mission impacts; however, many successes at DOE labs can be traced back to investments in LDRD. LDRD investments have a history of enabling significant payoffs for long-running DOE and NNSA missions and for providing anticipatory new technologies that ultimately become critical to future missions. Many of Sandia National Laboratories’ successes can be traced back to investments in LDRD. Capabilities from three LDRDs were critical to recent tests of the B61-12 gravity bomb—tests that would previously have only been performed experimentally.

Arrowsmith, Marie Danielle↗

Strategies for Optimizing WIP Investment in State Energy Offices

This report outlines strategies for Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIP) investment aimed at improving state energy office programs. The project was funded by WIP within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). WIP aims "to enable strategic investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies through the use of innovative practices across the United States in partnership with a wide range of stakeholders, including state and local organizations and community-based nonprofits." Across its programs, WIP has created thousands of jobs, maintains an investment ratio of 4.1 to 1, and increases U.S. economic output by 1.2 billion a year. This project was funded in the FY21 budget cycle and originally focused on improving WIP energy efficiency funding and programs. The project gathered information from various state energy offices to understand how WIP funding and processes can be optimized to improve state-level energy efficiency programs. We propose that the conclusions are also broadly applicable to weatherization and renewable energy deployment programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Research Reactors Division Infrastructure Investment Plan for the High Flux Isotope Reactor

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a unique national asset. Operational for nearly 60 years, continued investment into the aging infrastructure is necessary to ensure operation for another 6 decades. Additionally, growing missions require HFIR as well as important upgrades. Consequently, carefully integrated planning is required to ensure that infrastructure investments are timely executed to ensure long-term, reliable operation of HFIR. Concerns about challenges to the operational reliability of HFIR resulted in a recommendation from the 2023 Operations Review by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Basic Energy Sciences that a HFIR management strategy be developed to address the infrastructure needs. This report defines the investment needs, which are evolving as new upgrade efforts are better defined. HFIR is part of the three-source strategy within the Neutron Sciences Directorate (NScD) and contributes to the five strategic science areas outlined in the NScD 10 Year Strategic Science Plan: quantum materials, soft matter, materials and engineering, chemistry, and biosciences. Fundamental to this strategy are three core values: operational excellence, responsible stewardship, and servant leadership. These values guide our mission of safe and reliable operation of the reactor and require a strong and just nuclear safety culture, a solemn respect for responsible care of the facility, good workforce development, robust procedures and processes, an effective communication strategy, world-class asset management, a determined customer focus, and a commitment to protecting the environment, the safety and health of the public and our people, and the quality of work performed within our facility. These principles are all essential to operate HFIR at a world-class level. The Research Reactors Division (RRD) will lead a new era of neutron science and isotope production at HFIR through responsible and purposeful leadership and unwavering support of the science community. The approach outlined in this plan highlights the direction leadership is taking to ensure that HFIR is ready to support the science challenges and national needs of the future and that the United States maintains world leadership in neutron sciences. The plan is in alignment with the DOE’s desire to continue operating HFIR and with the NScD strategic science goals for the future. HFIR is an aging facility with numerous infrastructure challenges and needs. It has an aging workforce in relation to the general population of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), with many expected retirements over the next 5–10 years. With an increase in work scope caused by changing national priorities and science goals, several critical hires have been identified. To manage HFIR’s infrastructure needs, a prioritized list of equipment upgrades has been identified along with an analysis of future staffing requirements. A desire to operate HFIR at eight cycles per year will necessarily require some significant changes to procedures and processes currently in place as well as targeted staffing additions. Many of the equipment upgrades identified in this plan will significantly increase the reliability of the plant, thus contributing to the effort to reach the goal of safely operating eight cycles per year. A plan to attain eight-cycle operation is being prepared in parallel with the activities identified in this plan, although the actions identified to satisfy both plans will overlap. This plan identifies new infrastructure needs—for both plant equipment and staffing—thus necessitating formulation of future budget requests to fund the increased work scope and improvement activities. Some activities are currently being scheduled with the expectation that funding will be received. Any delays to funding or reductions of funding from the identified cost estimations will directly and negatively affect the plan’s implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Strategies for Flood Resilience and Grid Investment Among Iowa's Electric Distribution Utilities

Flooding poses a growing threat to Iowa's electric distribution system, yet utilities face significant data and modeling challenges in planning effective resilience investments. This report provides a foundational assessment of how distribution utilities in Iowa, investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative, approach resilience planning, with a focus on flood risk. It combines hazard characterization, review of state and utility practices, and application of NLR's Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Systems (ERAD) and Capacity Expansion Decision Support for Distribution Networks (CADET) tools. Using FEMA floodplains, Iowa Flood Center depth grids, and utility infrastructure data, the analysis quantifies asset exposure, simulates outage risks, and evaluates resilience strategies such as pole hardening, undergrounding, and substation protection. Results indicate that while feeder-level upgrades provide incremental benefits, the most significant reductions in outage risk are achieved through targeted substation interventions. The report highlights key data gaps, such as limited elevation data and fragility functions, and underscores the need for probability-weighted investment frameworks to address both frequent and catastrophic flood events. These insights aim to support utilities, state agencies, and federal partners in prioritizing resilience investments that safeguard Iowa's electric grid against future flooding.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The economics of project analysis: Optimal investment criteria and methods of study

Insight is provided toward the development of an optimal program for investment analysis of project proposals offering commercial potential and its components. This involves a critique of economic investment criteria viewed in relation to requirements of engineering economy analysis. An outline for a systems approach to project analysis is given Application of the Leontief input-output methodology to analysis of projects involving multiple processes and products is investigated. Effective application of elements of neoclassical economic theory to investment analysis of project components is demonstrated. Patterns of both static and dynamic activity levels are incorporated.

Scriven, M. C.↗

Process improvement as an investment: Measuring its worth

This paper discusses return on investment (ROI) generated from software process improvement programs. It details the steps needed to compute ROI and compares these steps from the perspective of two process improvement approaches: the widely known Software Engineering Institute's capability maturity model and the approach employed by NASA's Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL). The paper then describes the specific investments made in the SEL over the past 18 years and discusses the improvements gained from this investment by the production organization in the SEL.

Mcgarry, Frank↗

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options evaluation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

Wenning, B. D.↗

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Second Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based mode with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that are envisioned for ASAC. We describe a second-generation Air Carrier Investment Model that meets these requirements. The enhanced model incorporates econometric results from the supply and demand curves faced by U.S.-scheduled passenger air carriers. It uses detailed information about their fleets in 1995 to make predictions about future aircraft purchases. It enables analysts with the ability to project revenue passenger-miles flown, airline industry employment, airline operating profit margins, numbers and types of aircraft in the fleet, and changes in aircraft manufacturing employment under various user-defined scenarios.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗

NASA's Spaceliner Investment Area Technology Activities

NASA's has established long term goals for access-to-space. The third generation launch systems are to be fully reusable and operational around 2025. The goals for the third generation launch system are to significantly reduce cost and improve safety over current conditions. The Advanced Space Transportation Program Office (ASTP) at the NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL has the agency lead to develop space transportation technologies. Within ASTP, under the Spaceliner Investment Area, third generation technologies are being pursued in the areas of propulsion, airframes, integrated vehicle health management (IVHM), avionics, power, operations, and range. The ASTP program will mature these technologies through both ground and flight system testing. The Spaceliner Investment Area plans to mature vehicle technologies to reduce the implementation risks for future commercially developed reusable launch vehicles (RLV). The plan is to substantially increase the design and operating margins of the third generation RLV (the Space Shuttle is the first generation) by incorporating advanced technologies in propulsion, materials, structures, thermal protection systems, avionics, and power. Advancements in design tools and better characterization of the operational environment will allow improvements in design margins. Improvements in operational efficiencies will be provided through use of advanced integrated health management, operations, and range technologies. The increase in margins will allow components to operate well below their design points resulting in improved component operating life, reliability, and safety which in turn reduces both maintenance and refurbishment costs. These technologies have the potential of enabling horizontal takeoff by reducing the takeoff weight and achieving the goal of airline-like operation. These factors in conjunction with increased flight rates from an expanding market will result in significant improvements in safety and reductions in operational costs of future vehicles. The paper describes current status, future plans and technologies that are being matured by the Spaceliner Investment Area under the Advanced Space Transportation Program Office.

Hueter, Uwe↗

Analysis of System-Wide Investment in the National Airspace System: A Portfolio Analytical Framework and an Example

In this paper, the authors review the FAA s current program investments and lay out a preliminary analytical framework to undertake projects that may address some of the noted deficiencies. By drawing upon the well developed theories from corporate finance, an analytical framework is offered that can be used for choosing FAA s investments taking into account risk, expected returns and inherent dependencies across NAS programs. The framework can be expanded into taking multiple assets and realistic values for parameters in drawing an efficient risk-return frontier for the entire FAA investment programs.

Bhadra, Dipasis↗

Investment and Return in International Space Life Sciences Research Cooperation

Today, a worldwide community of life scientists interested in space research is attempting to improve the understanding of general biological processes, aid the development of procedures to reduce the biomedically-related risks of space flight, and/or directly support the health care of people who fly in space. Unfortunately, limited resource and subject availability and the technical challenges of performing space experiments have all hampered the full growth and development of space life sciences research. For many years, international cooperation in this field has been considered an attractive approach towards overcoming some of these difficulties, since pooling resources and sharing results would enhance the knowledge of all cooperating partners. International cooperative activities, however, require an investment by each partner and, just as in many other endeavors, the research gain can be directly related to the investment made. In this paper, the authors will discuss three possible levels of cooperation: sharing of data from independent investigations, harmonious integration of pre-designed independent investigations, and de novo design of an integrated suite of investigations using a joint investigator team. The degree of investment and potential return for each level of cooperation will be described.

McPhee, Jancy C.↗