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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth

The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1999

Radiation Effects: Core Project

The risks to personnel in space from the naturally occurring radiations are generally considered to be one of the most serious limitations to human space missions, as noted in two recent reports of the National Research Council/National Academy of Sciences. The Core Project of the Radiation Effects Team for the National Space Biomedical Research Institute is the consequences of radiations in space in order to develop countermeasure, both physical and pharmaceutical, to reduce the risks of cancer and other diseases associated with such exposures. During interplanetary missions, personnel in space will be exposed to galactic cosmic rays, including high-energy protons and energetic ions with atomic masses of iron or higher. In addition, solar events will produce radiation fields of high intensity for short but irregular durations. The level of intensity of these radiations is considerably higher than that on Earth's surface, and the biological risks to astronauts is consequently increased, including increased risks of carcinogenesis and other diseases. This group is examining the risk of cancers resulting from low-dose, low-dose rate exposures of model systems to photons, protons, and iron by using ground-based accelerators which are capable of producing beams of protons, iron, and other heavy ions at energies comparable to those encountered in space. They have begun the first series of experiments using a 1-GeV iron beam at the Brookhaven National Laboratory and 250-MeV protons at Loma Linda University Medical Center's proton synchrotron facility. As part of these studies, this group will be investigating the potential for the pharmaceutical, Tamoxifen, to reduce the risk of breast cancer in astronauts exposed to the level of doses and particle types expected in space. Theoretical studies are being carried out in a collaboration between scientists at NASA's Johnson Space Center and Johns Hopkins University in parallel with the experimental program have provided methods and predictions which are being used to assess the levels of risks to be encountered and to evaluate appropriate strategies for countermeasures. Although the work in this project is primarily directed toward problems associated with space travel, the problem of protracted exposures to low-levels of radiation is one of national interest in our energy and defense programs, and the results may suggest new paradigms for addressing such risks.

Dicello, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Secure Route: Roadway Risk Mapping for Transportation Planners

The secure transport of sensitive materials across U.S. road networks pose unique challenges for local, state, and federal agencies. Threats range from random events (e.g., accidents, medical emergencies, mechanical failures) to opportunistic or organized tactical assaults. Although the probability of such attacks is very low, the consequences of material loss to foreign states or terrorists can be catastrophic, qualifying these scenarios as “grey swan” events—low-probability, high-impact occurrences that are predictable but difficult to quantify. Traditional risk assessments struggle in these contexts, necessitating a shift toward subjective risk perception to inform planning. Risk perception in transport planning is shaped by various factors, including knowledge of adversarial capabilities, vehicle defenses, manifest details, and geographic features along the route. Geographic features such as bridges, tunnels, roadside elevation, and gaps in cellular coverage introduce vulnerabilities, while mitigative features include safe havens, police stations, and medical services. Temporal variables such as congestion, accidents, and weather further complicate route planning. Despite their importance, existing routing tools like Google Maps and commercial software do not explicitly account for geographic risk features, requiring planners to rely on personal familiarity with routes—a time-intensive, non-scalable approach. This work addresses these gaps by: (1) developing datasets that catalog geographic risk features along U.S. roadways, (2) eliciting risk perceptions from experienced transportation security experts, and (3) linking these perceptions to roadway conditions and geographic data. We implement these capabilities within Secure Route a novel mapping tool for classifying route segment risks associated with roadway conditions. This system provides transportation planners with an intuitive interface to assess and contextualize risk along potential routes, improving decision-making for secure transport. We present current progress in this effort and identify next steps.

Stewart, Robert [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000281867559)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating field observations and process-based modeling to predict watershed water quality under environmental perturbations

Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across water-shed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nations water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2010

Suited Occupant Injury Potential During Dynamic Spacecraft Flight Phases

In support of the Constellation Space Suit Element [CSSE], a new space-suit architecture will be created for support of Launch, Entry, Abort, Microgravity Extra- Vehicular Activity [EVA], and post-landing crew operations, safety and, under emergency conditions, survival. The space suit is unique in comparison to previous launch, entry, and abort [LEA] suit architectures in that it utilizes rigid mobility elements in the scye (i.e., shoulder) and the upper arm regions. The suit architecture also utilizes rigid thigh disconnect elements to create a quick disconnect approximately located above the knee. This feature allows commonality of the lower portion of the suit (from the thigh disconnect down), making the lower legs common across two suit configurations. This suit must interface with the Orion vehicle seat subsystem, which includes seat components, lateral supports, and restraints. Due to the unique configuration of spacesuit mobility elements, combined with the need to provide occupant protection during dynamic vehicle events, risks have been identified with potential injury due to the suit characteristics described above. To address the risk concerns, a test series has been developed in coordination with the Injury Biomechanics Research Laboratory [IBRL] to evaluate the likelihood and consequences of these potential issues. Testing includes use of Anthropomorphic Test Devices [ATDs; vernacularly referred to as "crash test dummies"], Post Mortem Human Subjects [PMHS], and representative seat/suit hardware in combination with high linear acceleration events. The ensuing treatment focuses on test purpose and objectives; test hardware, facility, and setup; and preliminary results.

Dub, Mark O.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Behavioral health in Antarctica: implications for long-duration space missions

Ideally, evidence from long-duration spaceflight should be used to predict likely occurrences of behavioral health events and for planning management strategies for such events. With small numbers of space travelers, and limited long-duration missions of a year or more, Earth analogues and simulations must be used as the evidence base, despite such analogues lacking microgravity, radiation, rapidly altering photoperiodicity, and fidelity to space. Antarctic health data are reviewed and an assessment made of the likely frequency of behavioral health events. Based on the Antarctic evidence, the likelihood of behavioral health problems in space is low. However, such cases may be serious and of high consequence, placing considerable demands on the mission crew and ground support to achieve a successful outcome, given the availability of pharmaceuticals and resources.

Review↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber100 Compass: Quantification of Cybersecurity Risks for Systems Transitioning to High Levels of Renewables (Final Report)

The shift to high levels of renewable deployment will entail a significant re-engineering of the grid. As investors, utilities, customers, and others prepare for clean energy transitions, there is need to understand how restructuring the grid to accommodate renewables will change the attack surface of the grid and accompanying cyber risk. However, today the cyber-physical risks associated with electric grids incorporating high levels of renewable deployment remain largely unknown. The Cyber100 Compass proof-of-concept application attempts to quantify future cyber-physical security risks by combining risk data gathered from subject matter experts (SMEs) with input from system planners about conditions they expect to be true about their electric systems in the future. Users provide data about their organization’s tolerance for risk; the value they place on avoiding the consequences of different cyber events; and conditions that they expect to be true on their systems at some point in the future. The SMEs provide baseline probabilities for different cyber events; the probability that an event will be low-, moderate-, or high-impact; and the amount by which user-identified conditions on their systems will change the likelihood of the cyber events. The application takes both the user and SME input and performs a series of Monte Carlo simulations to arrive at a quantification of risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2011

Differential Processing of Low and High LET Radiation Induced DNA Damage: Investigation of Switch from ATM to ATR Signaling

The members of the phosphatidylinositol kinase-like kinase family of proteins namely ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) and ATM- and Rad3-related (ATR) are directly responsible for the maintenance of genomic integrity by mounting DDR through signaling and facilitating the recruitment of repair factors at the sites of DNA damage along with coordinating the deployment of cell cycle checkpoints to permit repair by phosphorylating Checkpoint kinase Chk1, Chk2 and p53. High LET radiation from GCR (Galactic Cosmic Rays) consisting mainly of protons and high energy and charged (HZE) particles from SPE (Solar Particle Event) pose a major health risk for astronauts on their space flight missions. The determination of these risks and the design of potential safeguards require sound knowledge of the biological consequences of lesion induction and the capability of the cells to counter them. We here strive to determine the coordination of ATM and ATR kinases at the break sites directly affecting checkpoint signaling and DNA repair and whether differential processing of breaks induced by low and high LET radiation leads to possible augmentation of swap of these damage sensors at the sites of DNA damage. Exposure of cells to IR triggers rapid autophosphorylation of serine-1981 that causes dimer dissociation and initiates monomer formation of ATM. ATM kinase activity depends on the disruption of the dimer, which allows access and phosphorylation of downstream ATM substrates like Chk2. Evidence suggests that ATM is activated by the alterations in higher-order chromatin structure although direct binding of ATM to DSB ends may be a crucial step in its activation. On the other hand, in case of ATR, RPA (replication protein A)-coated ssDNA (single-stranded DNA) generated as a result of stalled DNA replication or during processing of chromosomal lesions is crucial for the localization of ATR to sites of DNA damage in association with ATR-interacting protein (ATRIP). Although the majority of RPA-coated ssDNA is generally present only during DNA replication, ATR activation in G1 and G2-phase might still require formation of RPA-coated ssDNA, probably initiated by the MRN-CtIP complex and then extended by the Exo1- or BLM-dependent mechanisms at the sites of DSBs. Evidence accumulates that activation of ATM and ATR are oppositely regulated by the length of single stranded overhangs generated at the break sites by processes mentioned above and these stretches of single stranded overhangs hold the clue for ATM to ATR switch at broken DNA ends. We irradiated 82-6hTERT human fibroblast cells with low LET gamma-rays and high LET Fe and Si particles. Preliminary results with cells exposed to 1Gy gamma-rays show that the kinetics of pChk2-pT68 foci formation is comparable to that of gamma-H2AX although they appear to recede quicker. The number and intensity of observed foci reaches a maximum at 30 min and 60 min post IR for Chk2-pT68 and gamma-H2AX foci respectively and all Chk2-pT68 foci colocalize with gamma-H2AX foci. The kinetics of Chk1-pS345 and ATRIP are being determined. Results of Chk2-pT68 foci kinetics was also corroborated by western blot experiments, although phosphorylation was detected as early as 10 min and started receding 30 min post IR with 2Gy of gamma-rays. On the other hand, level of ATR-pS428 reached its maximum between 60 and 120 min and was maintained until the last measured time point of 4 hours post IR as determined by western blotting. Experiments performed with high LET Fe and Si particles will be reported.

Saha, Janapriya↗
NASA NTRS2015

Space Biophysics: Accomplishments, Trends, Challenges

Physics and biology are inextricably linked. All the chemical and biological processes of life are dutifully bound to follow the rules and laws of physics. In space, these physical laws seem to turn on their head and biological systems, from microbes to humans, adapt and evolve in myriad ways to cope with the changed physical influences of the space environment. Gravity is the most prominent change in space that influences biology. In microgravity, the physical processes of sedimentation, density-driven convective flow, influence of surface tension and fluid pressure profoundly influence biology at the molecular and cellular level as well as at the whole-body level. Gravity sensing mechanisms are altered, structural and functional components of biology (such as bone and muscle) are reduced and changes in the way fluids and gasses behave also drive the way microbial systems and biofilms grow as well as the way plants and animals adapt. The radiation environment also effects life in space. Solar particle events and high energy cosmic radiation can cause serious damage to DNA and other biomolecules. The results can cause mutation, cellular damage or death, leading to health consequences of acute radiation damage or long-term health consequences such as increased cancer risk. Space Biophysics is the study and utilization of physical changes in space that cause changes in biological systems. The unique physical environment in space has been used successfully to grow high-quality protein crystals and 3D tissue cultures that could not be grown in the presence of unidirectional gravitational acceleration here on Earth. All biological processes that change in space have their root in a biophysical alteration due to microgravity and/or the radiation environment of space. In order to fully-understand the risks to human health in space and to fully-understand how humans, plants, animals and microbes can safely and effectively travel and eventually live for long periods beyond the protective environment of Earth, the biophysical properties underlying these changes must be studied, characterized and understood. This lecture reviews the current state of NASA biophysics research accomplishments and identifies future trends and challenges for biophysics research on the International Space Station and beyond.

Space Biophysics: Accomplishments↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Enhanced SPRA-based Margins Assessment

Recently there has been development in the field of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage detailed risk assessments and performance-based metrics to allow flexibility and innovation. These RIPB approaches include the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. However, there are certain challenges that have been identified to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, primarily due to uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The NRC is currently developing 10 CFR Part 53 that would establish a technology-inclusive regulatory framework for use by applicants for new commercial advanced nuclear reactors. By examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance, potential challenges were identified in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants. This paper summarizes key findings, establishes a series of high-level goals, and reviews a newly developed approach to address the major challenges associated with assessing compliance with QHOs, with avenues to demonstrate compliance based on either the estimated consequence or the available margin to event occurrence, while also building on existing experience of seismic margins assessments. The paper also provides examples to demonstrate the application of the approach, as well as recommendations and potential future work.

external hazards↗
NASA NTRS1993

An Arctic source for the Great Salinity Anomaly - A simulation of the Arctic ice-ocean system for 1955-1975

The paper employs a fully prognostic Arctic ice-ocean model to study the interannual variability of sea ice during the period 1955-1975 and to explain the large variability of the ice extent in the Greenland and Iceland seas during the late 1960s. The model is used to test the contention of Aagaard and Carmack (1989) that the Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA) was a consequence of the anomalously large ice export in 1968. The high-latitude ice-ocean circulation changes due to wind field changes are explored. The ice export event of 1968 was the largest in the simulation, being about twice as large as the average and corresponding to 1600 cu km of excess fresh water. The simulations suggest that, besides the above average ice export to the Greenland Sea, there was also fresh water export to support the larger than average ice cover. The model results show the origin of the GSA to be in the Arctic, and support the view that the Arctic may play an active role in climate change.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

McPherron, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Asteroids and Archaean crustal evolution: Tests of possible genetic links between major mantle/crust melting events and clustered extraterrestrial bombardments

Since the oldest intact terrestrial rocks of ca. 4.0 Ga and oldest zircon xenocrysts of ca. 4.3 Ga measured to date overlap with the lunar late heavy bombardment, the early Precambrian record requires close reexamination vis a vis the effects of megaimpacts. The identification of microtektite-bearing horizons containing spinals of chondritic chemistry and Ir anomalies in 3.5-3.4-Ga greenstone belts provides the first direct evidence for large-scale Archaean impacts. The Archaean crustal record contains evidence for several major greenstone-granite-forming episodes where deep upwelling and adiabatic fusion of the mantle was accompanied by contemporaneous crustal anatexis. Isotopic age studies suggest evidence for principal age clusters about 3.5, 3.0, and 2.7 (+/- 0.8) Ga, relics of a ca. 3.8-Ga event, and several less well defined episodes. These peak events were accompanied and followed by protracted thermal fluctuations in intracrustal high-grade metamorphic zones. Interpretations of these events in terms of internal dynamics of the Earth are difficult to reconcile with the thermal behavior of silicate rheologies in a continuously convecting mantle regime. A triggering of these episodes by mantle rebound response to intermittent extraterrestrial asteroid impacts is supported by (1) identification of major Archaean impacts from microtektite and distal ejecta horizons marked by Ir anomalies; (2) geochemical and experimental evidence for mantle upwelling, possibly from levels as deep as the transition zone; and (3) catastrophic adiabatic melting required to generate peridotitic komatites. Episodic differentiation/accretion growth of sial consequent on these events is capable of resolving the volume problem that arises from comparisons between modern continental crust and the estimated sial produced by continuous two-stage mantle melting processes. The volume problem is exacerbated by projected high accretion rates under Archaean geotherms. It is suggested that impact shock effects have been largely obscured by (1) outpouring of voluminous basic/ultrabasic lavas, inundating shock-deformed crust and extending beyond the perimeters of impact excavated basins; (2) gravity subsidence and downfaulting of terrestrial maria, accounting for the burial and anatexis of subgreenstone basement; and (3) extensive shearing and recrystallization at elevated temperatures of impact structure, breccias, and mineral deformation features beneath impact-excavated basins, relics of which may be retained in structural windows in high-grade metamorphic terranes.

Glikson, A. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Origin and characteristics of excess Fe metal in lunar glass welded aggregates

We show that the characteristic features of lunar glass welded aggregates including their irregular shapes, vesicularity, and content of submicron Fe metal in the welding glass can be explained by a model in which they are predominantly formed by micrometeorite impacts into the solar wind saturated topmost surface of the regolith. The Fe metal is reduced from silicates by the solar wind gases. Other possible mechanisms of Fe metal formation are discussed and shown to play at most minor roles. It is shown that surface tension forces control vesicularity and that the low gravity and high vacuum conditions prevailing on the moon are unimportant. Consequences of this surface tension control to possible lunar eruptive volcanism and to the Ar-40/Ar-39 dating of impact events are discussed.

Housley, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Nonvolatile GaAs Random-Access Memory

Proposed random-access integrated-circuit electronic memory offers nonvolatile magnetic storage. Bits stored magnetically and read out with Hall-effect sensors. Advantages include short reading and writing times and high degree of immunity to both single-event upsets and permanent damage by ionizing radiation. Use of same basic material for both transistors and sensors simplifies fabrication process, with consequent benefits in increased yield and reduced cost.

Katti, Romney R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Upstream Structures and Their Effects on the Magnetosphere

Kinetic processes within the Earth's foreshock generate a profusion of plasma and magnetic field structures with sizes and durations ranging from the microscale (e.g. SLAMs, solitons, and density holes) to the mesoscale (e.g. foreshock cavities or boundaries, hot flow anomalies, and bubbles). Swept into the bow shock by the solar wind flow, the perturbations associated with these features batter the magnetosphere, driving a wide variety of magnetospheric effects, including large amplitude magnetopause motion, bursty reconnection and the generation of flux transfer events, enhanced pulsation activity within the magnetosphere, diffusion and energization of radiation belt particles, enhanced particle precipitation resulting in dayside aurora and riometer absorption, and the generation of field-aligned currents and magnetic impulse events in high-latitude ground magnetometers. This talk reviews the ever growing menagery of structures observed upstream from the bow shock, examines their possible interrelationships, and considers their magnetospheric consequences.

Sibeck, D. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Extremes and Compound Impacts: Applications of Machine Learning and Interpretable Neural Networks

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal area III by exploring data fusion, learning and explainable AI methods in characterizing hydrological extremes and interconnections. It also addresses Focal area II by using probabilistic AI and ensemble ML for predicting extremes and compound extremes. Science Challenge: A key question associated with the integrated water (or hydrological) cycle grand challenge in the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) strategic plan, is how the frequency and intensity of hydrological events will change. Prediction of the tail behavior (extremes) of the hydrological cycle is especially challenging, because of their stochasticity and low probability. These extreme events and their compound impacts have significant societal and economic consequences. It is anticipated for the next-generation Earth System models (ESMs), that model predictability of the water cycle will improve with increased resolution (e.g., regionally refined E3SM), advanced software and computational architectures, and improved model physics based on the data from ARM measurements and high-fidelity models. However, the challenges for predictability of low-probability high-impact extreme events will unlikely be alleviated with conventional modeling and data-driven approaches, as ESMs are calibrated largely for capturing the high-frequency mean climate states. Recent AI and ML applications have shown great potential in quantifying well-defined climate extremes (e.g., supervised learning of tropical cyclones/atmospheric rivers by ClimateNet1) but few efforts are dedicated to compound events, extreme drivers and uncertainty estimation. We envision the opportunity to develop and apply ML and interpretable AI methods extended on the existing efforts, specifically, for: (1) identification of compound extremes, (2) diagnosing drivers of extremes, (3) bias correction in extreme predictions and (4) probabilistic modeling of extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗