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DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

DOE OSTI2016

Residential PV-Energy Storage Testing Collaboration with SunPower: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-14-569

Residential scale energy storage devices have shown great promise to add value and improve the ability to integrate distributed and variable generation into the distribution grid. Battery energy storage systems combined with PV and advanced inverters can provide many services. These include extended backup power in case of grid failure, reductions in feeder and system level peak load, system level net load ramp reduction, grid management services both locally (e.g., voltage management) and bulk system (e.g., reserves) level, and improved grid reliability through grid voltage and frequency support. Even though the cost of the energy storage systems are decreasing, one of the main challenges related to the widespread deployment of energy storage, as found by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is utility acceptance of storage technologies. Various interconnection challenges exist when connecting distributed PV-energy storage into the electrical distribution grid in terms of safety, reliability and stability of the electric power systems. Some of the urgent challenges, as seen by the manufacturers and installers are: safety of the battery cells and the packs, performance of the power conversion systems, effect of bidirectional power flow on existing utility equipment and qualification of solutions such as volt-ampere reactive (VAR) support and frequency regulation. Under this project, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) researchers will work with SunPower to address these challenges by research, testing and analysis at Energy System Integration Facility (ESIF) and energy storage testing laboratory at NREL. NREL's unique power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) capability will be utilized to evaluate system-level issues such as reverse power flow and VAR support (if available) for these PV-energy storage systems. Through the analysis of test results, the proposed project will demonstrate use of ESIF capabilities in a way that advances both the DOE and SunPower's goals of moving clean, renewable energy technologies onto the electrical grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Use of Embedded Electric Grid Storage for Resilience, Operational Flexibility, and Cyber-Security

In recent years, bulk energy storage has been applied to electric power systems as an auxiliary device for the support of grid reliability via grid services. This approach is useful but only extracts value from storage on a marginal basis because grid services involve only a tiny fraction of the power flowing in a grid. While storage is flexible enough to perform many services, assessing its value on a stacked-services basis obscures its real value: storage is a buffer for electric energy flows. All of its capabilities stem from this one fundamental property. Limiting storage to use as an ancillary services device leaves this primary value untapped. The real value of storage is as a means to provide a key characteristic missing from power grids: the ability to absorb stresses with little or no loss of performance – the essence of resilience. Storage applied systematically throughout the grid can provide the missing “shock absorber” springiness that the grid is missing. To provide this value, storage must be incorporated into the grid as core infrastructure and must be deeply integrated into grid operations. Doing so will provide far-reaching benefits to users of electricity at all levels, including vastly increased system resilience, expanded system operational flexibility, support for critical lifeline functions during critical events, and even improved cyber security.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2017

R&D 100 Winner 2017: Control System for Active Damping of Inter-Area Oscillations

Researchers at Sandia National Labs have developed a control system to improve damping of inter-area oscillations to improve power grid reliability. Current grids operate will below transmission capacity to avoid widespread outages due to inter-area oscillations. This control system is the first successful grid demonstration of feedback control making it a game changer for the smart grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operations (SUMMER-GO): Project Final Report

The Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operation (SUMMER-GO) project was recently completed through a collaboration among the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Maxar, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the University of Texas at Dallas, the University of California Berkeley, and the University of Colorado Boulder. The project made significant advances in probabilistic solar power forecasting, both through the development of Bayesian model averaging methods for ensemble forecasting and in bringing these and other advancements into practice with Maxar's delivery of operational forecasts to ERCOT. In addition to creating more reliable solar power forecasts, the project developed methods for their utilization in power system operations. These include the development of risk-aware unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithms and methods to reformulate probabilistic forecasts to be used in these power system operational models. Dynamic power system reserve methods were also developed, which have been shown in silico to create economic savings and reliability improvements on an ERCOT-like system as well as financial savings in the ERCOT system through more granular consideration of the uncertainty associated with solar power forecasts. Finally, a situational awareness tool to help grid operators better understand solar power forecast uncertainty in daily operations was developed and extensively vetted.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rolling Root Mean Square Based Multimodal Anomaly Detection for Real Time Monitoring of Smart Grid

Reliable real-time monitoring is valuable for maintaining the operational integrity of modern electrical smart grids. Deployment of heterogeneous sensing technologies in substations has enabled high-resolution, multichannel waveform monitoring, but also introduces challenges for anomaly detection due to noise, baseline drift, and modality-dependent signal characteristics. In this work, we present a computationally efficient unsupervised method for multimodal event detection based on Rolling Root Mean Square based Event Detection (RRMSED). The method is developed using in-house, field deployed sensors collecting data at a utility substation. The sensing system comprises voltage and current sensors, triaxial accelerometers, and magnetometers, collectively capturing electrical, vibrational, and magnetic waveform measurements at high temporal resolution. RRMSED operates by extracting rolling RMS energy features and their first-order temporal differences from consecutive waveform segments for each channel and then applying channel-specific statistical thresholds learned from historical data. A persistence-based exceedance logic is employed to robustly identify transient events while suppressing impulsive noise, and to provide precise temporal localization with high resolution. The framework is designed for continuous server-side operation and can be deployed in real time without requiring complex models. Experiments on simulated waveform data with known ground truth demonstrate low false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) rates. Application to real substation data shows RRMSED to identify events that are not captured by conventional monitoring indicators including fast transient detection algorithm currently deployed in the system. These results indicate that rolling RMS based features provide an effective and practical basis for real-time multimodal event detection in smart-grid substations.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

DOE OSTI2025

State Spotlight on Resilience: The Michigan Public Service Commission and Data Informed Accountability

Resilience activities are an emerging area within regulatory utility policy. As resilience frameworks develop, many Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) are looking to initiate resilience activities and have identified enhancing grid reliability as a practical starting point. Reliability describes the grid’s ability to deliver electricity steadily and without interruptions under normal or “blue sky” conditions. Reliability is measured using industry standard metrics such as outage frequency (SAIFI) and outage duration (SAIDI). Resilience is broader, reflecting the grid’s ability to both withstand and recover from disruptions, particularly those caused by extreme events such as severe storms. A reliable grid minimizes routine disruptions; a resilient grid ensures the system can recover quickly when disruptions occur, preventing them from escalating into widespread or prolonged crises.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Analysis of System and Interoperability Impact from Securing Communications for Distributed Energy Resources

As the power grid incorporates increasing amounts of distributed energy resources (DER) that provide new generation sources, new opportunities are created for improving operation of the grid while large challenges also arise for preserving grid reliability and security. To improve grid performance, DERs can be utilized to provide important support functionality, such as supporting frequency and voltage levels, especially if they are assisted by communication schemes as part of an advanced distribution management system (ADMS). Unfortunately, such connectivity and grid support functionality also creates additional cyber security risk with the potential for degradation of grid services, especially under conditions with high amounts of distributed generation. This paper will first discuss the communications needed by DERs to support system and interoperability objectives, as well as the security requirements and impact of securing these communications. Some common security mechanisms are discussed in relation to DERs, and a simulated 15-bus model of a distribution feeder is used to demonstrate aspects of the DER communications and impact to grid performance. These results help to advance understanding of the benefits, requirements, and mechanisms for securely implementing DER communications while ensuring that grid reliability is maintained.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Final Report to the National Energy Technology Laboratory on FY14- FY15 Cooperative Research with the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions

The Power System Engineering Research Center (PSERC) engages in technological, market, and policy research for an efficient, secure, resilient, adaptable, and economic U.S. electric power system. PSERC, as a founding partner of the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS), conducted a multi-year program of research for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) to develop new methods, tools, and technologies to protect and enhance the reliability and efficiency of the U.S. electric power system as competitive electricity market structures evolve, and as the grid moves toward wide-scale use of decentralized generation (such as renewable energy sources) and demand-response programs. Phase I of OE’s funding for PSERC, under cooperative agreement DE-FC26-09NT43321, started in fiscal year (FY) 2009 and ended in FY2013. It was administered by DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) through a cooperative agreement with Arizona State University (ASU). ASU provided sub-awards to the participating PSERC universities. This document is PSERC’s final report to NETL on the activities for OE, conducted through CERTS, from September 2015 through September 2017 utilizing FY 2014 to FY 2015 funding under cooperative agreement DE-OE0000670. PSERC is a thirteen-university consortium with over 30 industry members. Since 1996, PSERC has been engaged in research and education efforts with the mission of “empowering minds to engineer the future electric energy system.” Its work is focused on achieving: • An efficient, secure, resilient, adaptable, and economic electric power infrastructure serving society • A new generation of educated technical professionals in electric power • Knowledgeable decision-makers on critical energy policy issues • Sustained, quality university programs in electric power engineering. PSERC core research is funded by industry, with a budget supporting approximately 30 principal investigators and some 70 graduate students and other researchers. Its researchers are multi-disciplinary, conducting research in three principal areas: power systems, power markets and policy, and transmission and distribution technologies. The research is collaborative; each project involves researchers typically at two universities working with industry advisors who have expressed interest in the project. Examples of topics for recent PSERC research projects include grid integration of renewables and energy storage, new tools for taking advantage of increased penetration of real-time system measurements, advanced system protection methods to maintain grid reliability, and risk and reliability assessment of increasingly complex cyber-enabled power systems. A PSERC’s objective is to proactively address the technical and policy challenges of U.S. electric power systems. To achieve this objective, PSERC works with CERTS to conduct technical research on advanced applications and investigate the design of fair and transparent electricity markets; these research topics align with CERTS research areas 1 and 2: Real-time Grid Reliability Management (Area 1), and Reliability and Markets (Area 2). The CERTS research areas overlap with the PSERC research stems: Power Systems, Power Markets, and Transmission and Distribution Technologies, as described on the PSERC website (see http://www.pserc.org/research/research_program.aspx). The performers were with Arizona State University (ASU), Cornell University (CU), University of California at Berkeley (UCB), and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). PSERC research activities in the area of reliability and markets focused on electric market and power policy analyses. The resulting studies suggest ways to frame best practices using organized markets for managing U.S. grid assets reliably and to identify highest priority areas for improvement. PSERC research activities in the area of advanced applications focused on mid- to long-term software research and development, with anticipated outcomes that move innovative ideas toward real-world application. Under the CERTS research area of Real-time Grid Reliability Management, PSERC has been focused on Advanced Applications Research and Development (AARD), a subgroup of activities that works to develop advanced applications and tools to more effectively operate the electricity delivery system, by enabling advanced analysis, visualization, monitoring and alarming, and decision support capabilities for grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2013

Creating a Transactive Energy Framework: Improving Reliability and Efficiency

The use of demand response and other flexible distributed resources over the past decade for market efficiency and grid reliability has grown dramatically. Federal and state policy objectives point to an important role for customer loads, generation and storage in the management of an increasingly unpredictable power system. As we consider the need to substantially scale the use of flexible distributed energy resources, there has been growing attention to the need to address not only the economics, but also the control system implications to ensure grid reliability. This has led to a focus on an area of activity called “Transactive Energy.” Transactive Energy refers to the combination of economic and control techniques that improve grid reliability and efficiency. These techniques may also be used to optimize operations within a customer’s facility. The Department of Energy has supported the GridWise® Architecture Council (“the Council”) to develop a framework to provide opportunity for collaboration among the many stakeholders involved in the transformation of the power system.

GWAC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Methods for Measuring Grid Frequency in Low-Inertia Power Systems: Preprint

Accurate measurement of grid frequency is a critical component of reliable grid control. Traditionally, methods such as phase locked loops (PLLs) and discrete Fourier transforms (DFTs) have been used in inverters and phasor measurement units (PMUs) to measure frequency. However, as the percentage of inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar and wind has increased, these conventional frequency measurement methods are proving unable to guarantee reliable control in some cases. One challenge is measuring frequency during transient events, where there is a disruption in the steady state sinusoidal voltage. During these events, the underlying frequency of the grid may barely change, but measurement methods report a large spike in frequency due to the disrupted waveform. New methods must balance between suppressing spikes in frequency during faults, and providing fast, accurate, measurements in all other grid operation conditions, especially during events with high rate-of-change-of frequency (ROCOF), which are more prevalent in high-IBR power systems. This paper first surveys frequency measurement methods that have been proposed to reduce measurement errors during transient events. Then, both conventional and more novel frequency measurement methods are tested against an IEEE standard and industry recommendations, and their performance is evaluated for events simulated in PSCAD. Results quantify the trade-offs in performance during different grid conditions and lead to suggestions for the most appropriate frequency and ROCOF measurement methods for low inertia grids.

frequency↗

DOE OSTI2022

Protection and Restoration Solutions to Reliable and Resilient Integration of Grid-connected PV Installations and Distributed Energy Resources: Design, Testbed, Proof of Work and Impact Studies (Final Report)

To gain a better understanding of the complex transients in a utility grid with a large number of solar PV installations coupled by PWM inverters during the protection and restoration period of the power grid, in this project a kW-level experimental system with dominating inverter-based resources and a hardware-in-loop simulation system with transmission and distribution models, as well as several SEL protective relays have been built and used. The major research findings of the project are summarized below in two perspectives: Experimental research: A self-organized ultra-high frequency solitary waveform is discovered and demonstrated in the hardware experimental system. Despite the familiarities, such a solitary waveform is distinct from any harmonics, transient, or resonance waves in that, it is 1) non-dispersive over time and space, 2) not associated with any active source or the linear superposition of sources, 3) half-cycle asymmetric, 4) not responding to filters or change of system characteristic resonance frequency, 5) ubiquitous as it occurs simultaneously everywhere in the system from DC supply, power lines, and the utility grid, and 6) explosive through tripping the protection or damaging susceptible devices or circuits. Analytical study: The nature of such a new waveform and an analytical explanation of its formation are studied based on related physics and non-linear science principles, with the following highlights: 1) such a new waveform follows the solutions to the Non-linear Schrödinger equation, so the classic linear perturbation theory is unable to explain or predict such a unique waveform as confirmed with the research team of RTDS; 2) the critical condition of occurrence of such a waveform is derived, which indicates that the breakings of solitary wave is a system synchronous issue between the utility grid in the 60Hz phasor domain and duty-ratio modulation of DC sources in the inverter switching frequency domain; 3) such a waveform carries energy mass so it could be detrimental; 4) such a waveform is deceiving as it is not readily detectable in the energy propagation direction by the primary protection equipment, while it is detrimental in the perpendicular direction of energy propagation, i.e. voltage direction. Thus, it has more likely challenges to the second primary equipment and devices, particularly at the weakest link and point such as aging insulation and inappropriate setting of susceptible devices. Therefore, such a waveform can be easily ignored in the aftermath investigation. The intellectual merits: The experimental discovery reveals certain unfamiliar transient phenomena that could challenge the integration of large-scale grid-connected solar PV installation during the group ride-through period of solar PV installations, commissioning of large-solar farms, or dramatic change of solar radiation conditions. Particularly, the research findings suggest that the occurrence of the unfamiliar transient phenomena is uniquely associated with the inverter-based solar PV installation, which is less likely to happen for rotary energy systems. The physics and non-linear science-based research work laid down an analytical path to the challenging transient stability problems including those that have been observed currently and future calls. Both experimental and analytical research results explain the limitation of many current research effects including some DoE research undertakings as well as possible solutions. The broader impacts: The research outcome of the project advances the understanding of the possible transient problems for the integration of inverter-based solar PV installation. It also highlights the theoretical and technical barriers for applying the conventional theory and technology to design and implement countermeasures against their adverse impacts of the large-scale solar PV installation and operation on grid reliability and security. More broadly, the research outcomes have shed some light on the open, fundamental challenges in the integration of large-scale solar photovoltaic energy into current and next-generation power grids across the country, and worldwide. The advanced physics and non-linear science-based analysis open up a path to harmonization of the renewables for societal energy needs via building a resilient and sustainable electric power infrastructure.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Literature Review: Smart Grids Impacts on Nuclear Power Plants Task 4: Project Final Report

This report describes the results of a literature review performed to study the current state of electric power industry efforts and research work regarding Smart Grid technologies, renewable energy integration, grid reliability standards, and USNRC electric grid regulations and guidance. The information gathered in the literature review is intended to: (1) Develop a better understanding of the impacts that Smart Grid implementation and the integration of renewable energy sources can have on the availability and reliability of the electric grid as a source of offsite power, (2) Provide an understand of the present grid reliability standards and how they will address the challenges of Smart Grid implementation, (3) Identify electrical system vulnerabilities and failure modes that may result from the implementation of Smart Grid technologies and cybersecurity threats, (4) Provide an understand of the actions being taken by FERC, NERC and others to identify, understand and address potential impacts, (5) Provide an understand of existing NRC regulation and guidance addressing requirements of grid design, operation and reliability supporting NPP design requirements, and (6) Recommend any additional actions or studies that should be undertaken by the NRC to ensure compliance of NPPs to GDC 17 and any other applicable regulations and guidance as the electric grid evolves into the Smart Grid.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Physics-Informed Deep Neural Network Method for Limited Observability State Estimation

The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, due to for example cyber attacks, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2019

GridWise Transactive Energy Framework (V.1.1)

Over the past two decades, the use of demand response and other flexible distributed resources for electricity market efficiency and grid reliability has grown dramatically. Federal and state policy objectives point to an important role for customers’ loads, generation, and storage in the management of an increasingly unpredictable power system. As we consider the need to substantially scale the use of flexible distributed energy resources, growing attention has been devoted to the need to address not only the economics of the electricity grid, but also the control system implications, to address grid reliability. This has led to a focus on an area of activity called “Transactive Energy.” Transactive energy (TE) refers to the use of a combination of economic and control techniques to improve grid reliability and efficiency. These techniques may also be used to optimize operations within a customer’s facility. The U.S. Department of Energy has supported the GridWise ® Architecture Council (“the Council”) in developing a conceptual framework for developing architectures and designing solutions related to TE. The goal of this effort is to encourage and facilitate collaboration among the many stakeholders involved in the transformation of the power system and thereby advance the practical implementation of TE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2013

GridWise Transactive Energy Framework (DRAFT Version)

Over the past decade, the use of demand response and other flexible distributed resources for market efficiency and grid reliability has grown dramatically. Federal and state policy objectives point to an important role for customers’ loads, generation and storage in the management of an increasingly unpredictable power system. As we consider the need to substantially scale the use of flexible distributed energy resources, there has been growing attention to the need to address not only the economics, but also the control system implications to ensure grid reliability. This has led to a focus on an area of activity called “Transactive Energy.” Transactive Energy refers to the combination of economic and control techniques to improve grid reliability and efficiency. These techniques may also be used to optimize operations within a customer’s facility. The Department of Energy has supported the GridWise® Architecture Council (“the Council”) in developing a conceptual framework that can be used in developing architectures, and designing solutions related to transactive energy. The goal of this effort is to encourage and facilitate collaboration among the many stakeholders involved in the transformation of the power system and thereby advance the practical implementation of transactive energy.

GridWise↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Transmission Planning Study: Executive Summary

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office, in partnership with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study sought to develop new national grid-scale planning tools and methods that can be used by industry, especially when planning for interregional transmission capacity needs; identify potential transmission solutions that will provide broad-scale benefits to electric customers under a wide range of potential futures; inform planning processes for regional and interregional transmission; and identify interregional and national strategies to maintain grid reliability as the grid transitions, including to a reliance on low- and zero-carbon energy resources. The NTP Study is presented as a collection of six chapters.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

DOE OSTI2024

The National Transmission Planning Study: Chapter 1: Introduction

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗