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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: a systematic map

Abstract Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America’s ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America. Methods We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature. Review findings We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), elk ( Cervus canadensis ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat. Conclusions The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) and mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Malpeli, Katherine C. (ORCID:000000030780918X)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surface water geochemistry along St. Louis River Estuary (Duluth/Superior, MN/WI)

This dataset is aimed at understanding changes in surface water chemistry associated with urbanization in the Great Lakes region. Surface water chemistry including cations, anions, organic and inorganic carbon, and nitrogen were collected from six locations along St. Louis River – a freshwater estuary entering Lake Superior (Duluth/Superior, MN/WI). The Duluth/Superior, MN/WI metropolitan area is the largest port on the United States side of Lake Superior. Samples were collected near different land uses every two weeks from late July 2023 to the onset of ice cover in November 2023. Water samples were analyzed using In-Situ AquaTroll 500 Multiparameter Sonde with Ammonium Ion Selective Electrode and Chlorophyll-a sensor (unfiltered), METTLER TOLEDO FiveEasy Plus FP20 and METTLER TOLEDO LE407 probe (unfiltered); HACH DR300 Pocket Colorimeter Iron FerroVer (filtered 0.22 μm in field); Shimadzu TOC-L Total Organic Carbon Analyzer with TNM-L Total Nitrogen Unit (filtered 0.22 μm in field); Agilent 8900 triple quadrupole ICP-MS (ICP-QQQ) (filtered 0.22 μm in field); and Dionex ICS-6000 HPIC System (filtered 0.22 μm in field).The data package is comprised of 5 files. dd.csv contains the description of columns in Geochemistry_LSNERR_water.csv and Sampling_sites.csv. flmd.csv contains descriptions of each file in the dataset. README.txt contains description of the dataset structure and file content. Geochemistry_LSNERR_water.csv contains geochemistry data for six sampling locations along the St. Louis River. Sampling_sites.csv contains latitude and longitude coordinates for each of the six sampling site locations along the St. Louis River.This data has not been previously published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AmeriFlux CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site. Site Description - This agricultural flux tower site is located about 15 km southwest of Simcoe in southern Ontario, Canada. It was planted with corn (Zea mays) in 2020 and 2021, sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) in 2022 and tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in 2023. The site is part of Turkey Point Environmental Observatory (TPEO). The establishment of the agricultural site has allowed TPEO to become representative of the major biomes in the Great Lakes region, encompassing coniferous and deciduous forests, as well as agricultural crops. The soil at this agricultural site is well-drained fine sandy loam. The area has a humid continental climate and has one of the longest-growing seasons in Canada with at least 150–160 frost-free days in a year.

Arain, M. Altaf [McMaster University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This agricultural flux tower site is located about 15 km southwest of Simcoe in southern Ontario, Canada. It was planted with corn (Zea mays) in 2020 and 2021, sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) in 2022 and tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in 2023. The site is part of Turkey Point Environmental Observatory (TPEO). The establishment of the agricultural site has allowed TPEO to become representative of the major biomes in the Great Lakes region, encompassing coniferous and deciduous forests, as well as agricultural crops. The soil at this agricultural site is well-drained fine sandy loam. The area has a humid continental climate and has one of the longest-growing seasons in Canada with at least 150–160 frost-free days in a year.

Arain, M. Altaf [McMaster University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observing low-altitude features in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment via uncrewed aerial systems

Abstract. Ozone is a pollutant formed in the atmosphere by photochemical processes involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) when exposed to sunlight. Tropospheric boundary layer ozone is regularly measured at ground stations and sampled infrequently through balloon, lidar, and crewed aircraft platforms, which have demonstrated characteristic patterns with altitude. Here, to better resolve vertical profiles of ozone within the atmospheric boundary layer, we developed and evaluated an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) platform for measuring ozone and meteorological parameters of temperature, pressure, and humidity. To evaluate this approach, a UAS was flown with a portable ozone monitor and a meteorological temperature and humidity sensor to compare to tall tower measurements in northern Wisconsin. In June 2020, as a part of the WiscoDISCO20 campaign, a DJI M600 hexacopter UAS was flown with the same sensors to measure Lake Michigan shoreline ozone concentrations. This latter UAS experiment revealed a low-altitude structure in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment showing the highest ozone at altitudes from 20–100 m a.g.l. These first such measurements of low-altitude ozone via a UAS in the Great Lakes region revealed a very shallow layer of ozone-rich air lying above the surface.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗
NASA NTRS1982

Aircraft sampling of the sulfate layer near the tropopause following the eruption of Mount St. Helens

Twenty-three filter sampling flights of the NASA Lewis F-106 aircraft, were conducted in the Great Lakes region between June 4 and Dec. 23, 1980, following the major eruption of Mount St. Helens on May 18. The IPC-1478 filters were exposed over an altitude range spanning the local tropopause. A filter sample exposed above the tropopause on June 5 indicated a sulfate level 50 times the baseline measurements, which is consistent with the trajectory predictions of the leading edge of the cloud on its second transit around the earth. Subsequent measurements over a period of 7 months revealed the existence of a layer of sulfate above the tropopause that decayed to a level of about 4 times previously measured background levels by the beginning of August. Concentration of nitrate above the tropopause exhibited considerable variability and showed some enhancement compared with previously measured concentration levels. On the basis of the null results of X ray fluorescence measurements, there is no evidence of ash particle concentrations of greater than 3.4 microns/cu m persisting in the layer above the tropopause following the second transit of the cloud.

Lezberg, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Aircraft sampling of the sulfate layer near the tropopause following the eruption of Mount St. Helens

Twenty filter sampling flights of the NASA Lewis F-106 aircraft were conducted in the Great Lakes region between June 4 and August 8, 1980, following the major eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington on May 18. The IPC-1478 filters were exposed over an altitude range spanning the local tropopause. Quarter sections were analyzed for sulfate and nitrate by ion chromatography and selected samples were analyzed for chloride by selective ion electrode. Trace elements were searched by X-ray fluorescence analysis. A filter sample taken above the tropopause on June 5 indicated a sulfate level of 50 times the baseline measurements. Subsequent measurements over a period of 2 months showed an initial dropoff and formation of a persistent layer of sulfate above the tropopause with a concentration of 10 to 18 times previously measured background-levels. Concentrations of nitrate above the tropopause exhibited considerable variability and some enhancement compared with previously measured concentration levels. It is suggested that the source of the nitrate may also be volcanic as evidenced by its temporal relationship to the sulfate concentration changes. Based on the null results of X-ray fluorescence measurements, there is no evidence of ash particle concentrations greater than 3.4 microns g/cubic m persisting in the layer above the tropopause after the second transit of the cloud.

Lezberg, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Wind Erosion and Dune Formation on High Frozen Bluffs

Frost penetration increases upslope on barren, windswept bluffs in cold environments. Along the south shore of Lake Superior, near the brow of 100 m high bluffs it typically exceeds 5 m. Frost increases the shear strength of damp sand to a level comparable to that of concrete, making winter slopes highly stable despite undercutting by waves and ground-water sapping along the footslope. Sublimation of interparticle ice in the slope face increases with wind speed and lower vapor pressures. The cold and dry winter winds of Lake Superior ablate these slopes through loss of binding ice. Wind erosion rates, based on measurements of sand accumulation on the forest floor downwind of the brow, show most airborne sand falls out within several meters of the brow, forming a berm 1 to 3 m high after many years. The spatial pattern of sand deposition, however, varies considerably over distances of several hundred meters along the top bluffs in response to frost conditions and the build-up of gravel lag on the slope face, sand exposure from mass movements, and local aerodynamics of the crest slope. The formation of perched sand dunes in the Great Lakes region is clearly related to wind erosion of sand from high bluffs in winter. Broadly similar processes may operate on Mars.

Marsh, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

NASA/FAA/NCAR Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research: Summary of Winter 1996-1997 Flight Operations

During the winter of 1996-1997, a flight research program was conducted at the NASA-Lewis Research Center to study the characteristics of Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD) within the Great Lakes region. This flight program was a joint effort between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Based on weather forecasts and real-time in-flight guidance provided by NCAR, the NASA-Lewis Icing Research Aircraft was flown to locations where conditions were believed to be conducive to the formation of Supercooled Large Droplets aloft. Onboard instrumentation was then used to record meteorological, ice accretion, and aero-performance characteristics encountered during the flight. A total of 29 icing research flights were conducted, during which "conventional" small droplet icing, SLD, and mixed phase conditions were encountered aloft. This paper will describe how flight operations were conducted, provide an operational summary of the flights, present selected experimental results from one typical research flight, and conclude with practical "lessons learned" from this first year of operation.

Miller, Dean↗
NASA NTRS2000

Supercooled Large Droplet Icing Flight Research Program

During the past three winters, the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field conducted icing research flights throughout the Great Lakes region to measure the characteristics of a severe icing condition having Supercooled Large Droplets (SLD). SLD was implicated in the 1994 crash of the ATR-72 commuter aircraft. This accident focused attention on the safety hazard associated with SLD, and it led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to identify the need for a better understanding of the atmospheric characteristics of this icing condition. In response to this need, Glenn developed a cooperative icing flight research program with the FAA, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and the Atmospheric Environment Service of Canada. The primary objectives were to (1) characterize the SLD icing condition in terms of important icing-related parameters (such as cloud droplet size, cloud water content, and temperature), (2) develop and refine SLD icing weather forecast products, and (3) document and measure the effects of SLD ice accretions on aircraft performance.

Miller, Dean R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Overview

This paper is an overview of the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) project, giving some history on the project, various applications of the atmospheric data, and future ideas and plans. As part of NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program, the TAMDAR project developed a small low-cost sensor that collects useful meteorological data and makes them available in near real time to improve weather forecasts. This activity has been a joint effort with FAA, NOAA, universities, and industry. A tri-agency team collaborated by developing a concept of operations, determining the sensor specifications, and evaluating sensor performance as reported by Moosakhanian et. al. (2006). Under contract with Georgia Tech Research Institute, NASA worked with AirDat of Raleigh, NC to develop the sensor. The sensor is capable of measuring temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and icing. It can compute pressure altitude, indicated and true air speed, ice accretion rate, wind speed and direction, peak and average turbulence, and eddy dissipation rate. The overall development process, sensor capabilities, and performance based on ground and flight tests is reported by Daniels (2002), Daniels et. al. (2004) and by Tsoucalas et. al. (2006). An in-service evaluation of the sensor was performed called the Great Lakes Fleet Experiment (GLFE), first reported by Moninger et. al. (2004) and Mamrosh et. al. (2005). In this experiment, a Mesaba Airlines fleet was equipped to collect meteorological data over the Great Lakes region during normal revenue-producing flights.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Blended Global Snow Product using Visible, Passive Microwave and Scatterometer Satellite Data

A joint U.S. Air Force/NASA blended, global snow product that utilizes Earth Observation System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and QuikSCAT (Quick Scatterometer) (QSCAT) data has been developed. Existing snow products derived from these sensors have been blended into a single, global, daily, user-friendly product by employing a newly-developed Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Snow Algorithm (ANSA). This initial blended-snow product uses minimal modeling to expeditiously yield improved snow products, which include snow cover extent, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent (SWE), onset of snowmelt, and identification of actively melting snow cover. The blended snow products are currently 25-km resolution. These products are validated with data from the lower Great Lakes region of the U.S., from Colorado during the Cold Lands Processes Experiment (CLPX), and from Finland. The AMSR-E product is especially useful in detecting snow through clouds; however, passive microwave data miss snow in those regions where the snow cover is thin, along the margins of the continental snowline, and on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains, for instance. In these regions, the MODIS product can map shallow snow cover under cloud-free conditions. The confidence for mapping snow cover extent is greater with the MODIS product than with the microwave product when cloud-free MODIS observations are available. Therefore, the MODIS product is used as the default for detecting snow cover. The passive microwave product is used as the default only in those areas where MODIS data are not applicable due to the presence of clouds and darkness. The AMSR-E snow product is used in association with the difference between ascending and descending satellite passes or Diurnal Amplitude Variations (DAV) to detect the onset of melt, and a QSCAT product will be used to map areas of snow that are actively melting.

Foster, James L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Extreme Lake-Effect Snow from a GPM Microwave Imager Perspective: Observational Analysis and Precipitation Retrieval Evaluation

This study focuses on the ability of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave sensors to detect and provide quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for extreme lake-effect snowfall events over the United States lower Great Lakes region. GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) high frequency channels can clearly detect intense shallow convective snowfall events. However, GMI Goddard PROfiling (GPROF) QPE retrievals produce inconsistent results when compared against the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) ground-based radar reference dataset. While GPROF retrievals adequately capture intense snowfall rates and spatial patterns of one event, GPROF systematically underestimates intense snowfall rates in another event. Furthermore, GPROF produces abundant light snowfall rates that do not conform with MRMS observations. Ad-hoc precipitation rate thresholds are suggested to partially mitigate GPROF’s overproduction of light snowfall rates. The sensitivity and retrieval efficiency of GPROF to key parameters (2-meter temperature, total precipitable water, and background surface type) used to constrain the GPROF a-priori retrieval database are investigated. Results demonstrate that typical lake-effect snow environmental and surface conditions, especially coastal surfaces, are underpopulated in the database and adversely affect GPROF retrievals. For the two presented case studies, using snow cover a-priori database in the locations of originally deemed as coastline improves retrieval. This study suggests that it is particularly important to have more accurate GPROF surface classifications and better representativeness of the a-priori databases to improve intense lake-effect snow detection and retrieval performance.

Lisa Milani↗
NASA NTRS2020

Structure and Parameter Uncertainty in Centennial Projections of Forest Community Structure and Carbon Cycling

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi‐decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand‐replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub‐model–parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under‐predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant–soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED‐2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.

canopy radiative transfer↗
DOE OSTI2022

NECTURUS MACULOSUS (Common Mudpuppy). NESTING

Common Mudpuppies (Necturus maculosus maculosus) are the most widespread and wellstudied of the Proteidae, ranging from northern Georgia into eastern Canada and west to the Great Plains. Despite this extensive range, most of our knowledge of life history traits for mudpuppies is based on studies occurring in the northern half of its range, specifically the Great Lakes region. Little is known regarding life history traits in the southern portion of its range. In Tennessee, N. maculosus is thought to occur statewide in permanent streams, rivers, and likely in reservoirs and lakes. Literature suggests that parturition and nest-guarding in N. maculosus maculosus occurs in late winter through spring, but there are no published observations to verify this in Tennessee (Pasachnik and Niemiller 2011. In Niemiller and Reynolds [eds.], The Amphibians of Tennessee, pp. 231-233. University of Tennessee Press, Knoxville, Tennessee). Here, we report four observations of N. maculosus maculosus nests that were discovered while conducting snorkel surveys and lifting cover objects opportunistically for aquatic salamanders from 2011 to 2017, and approximate timing of laying in three river tributaries to the Tennessee River.

Nelson, Stephen K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lake-Effect Snowstorm Events and Associated Snowfall Totals Integrated from NOAA Storm Reports, ERA5, and HRRR for the Laurentian Great Lakes (1997–2024)

Lake-effect snowstorms are localized, impactful winter weather phenomena that can generate substantial snowfall totals and pose significant challenges for forecasting, transportation, and regional infrastructure. To support the analysis and modeling of these events, this dataset compiles observational reports of lake-effect snowstorms alongside corresponding snowfall estimates derived from gridded atmospheric datasets. The observational component of the data originates from the National Weather Service (NWS) winter storm report, subset to lake-effect snow event type, covering 1997–2024. For each lake-effect snow event, this data provides the impacted county, event start and end datetimes at an hourly resolution, as well as relevant storm narratives. The complementary reanalysis-derived data is sourced from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) gridded data. For both gridded datasets, the maximum total snowfall (in units mm) was extracted, constrained by the county and datetimes specified by the observational report. ERA5 data covers the entire observational period (1997–2024), whereas HRRR data is only available from November 2016 – December 2024. Three CSV files are provided here: (1) the observational lake-effect snow event report, (2) ERA5 maximum snowfall detections for each event, and (3) HRRR maximum snowfall detections for each event. Relevant data from the observational files, such as impacted state and county, event datetimes, and event IDs, were included for convenience. Users can inspect and visualize the data using tools such as Microsoft Excel and Python pandas/matplotlib packages. This dataset may support a variety of applications, including climatological analyses of lake-effect snowfall, evaluation of snowfall representation in atmospheric datasets and numerical weather prediction models, and the development of machine learning approaches for detecting or predicting lake-effect snowfall events.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION > SOLID↗
NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Koster, R.↗