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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal district energy systems coupled with seasonal underground thermal energy storage: a U.S. techno-economic screening by climate and geology

In the United States, cooling-dominated commercial building loads can cause geothermal heat pump-based district energy systems to accumulate a long-term subsurface thermal imbalance, motivating the incorporation of seasonal underground thermal energy storage. We developed a transferable workflow to evaluate geothermal district systems that pair ground heat exchangers with seasonal underground thermal energy storage. Using standardized hourly loads for seven commercial buildings and a uniform cost framework, we simulated ten U.S. cities with a physics-based ground heat exchanger model, subsurface storage simulations, and economic assessment to isolate the roles of climate and hydrogeology. In cooling-dominated cities, underground thermal energy storage supplied the majority of annual cooling, cutting electricity use and summer peaks substantially while achieving levelized costs comparable to or below conventional chiller-boiler plants. In cooler climates, the storage share shrunk, required borefield size and costs rose, and levelized cost of energy increased nearly linearly with declining underground thermal energy storage fraction, indicating storage fraction as the primary economic lever. Sensitivity analysis showed capital risk dominated by borefield drilling and surface heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning and piping, with underground thermal energy storage costs secondary. This workflow provides a transparent foundation for site-specific design and screening of next-generation geothermal district energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Simulations of Geological CO 2 Injection: Application to the SPE11 Benchmark

Geological carbon sequestration (GCS) will play a critical role in decarbonization and in facilitating the transition to clean energy systems. Because CO 2 is highly mobile, ensuring its safe and permanent injection into subsurface geological formations involves monitoring over larger spatial domains and longer time periods than is typical for hydrocarbon reservoirs. This can benefit from simulation tools capable of modeling key CO 2 trapping mechanisms, particularly those optimized for speed and scalability on high-performance computing systems. Using isothermal versions of the SPE11B and SPE11C benchmark cases, we conduct a mesh refinement study simulating CO 2 injection into kilometer-scale rock formations at centimeter resolution with the GEOS open-source simulation framework. We focus on how mesh refinement improves the accuracy of convective mixing in both 2D and 3D simulations. The computational costs associated with achieving a converged solution highlight the need for predictive upscaling techniques. A systematic performance scaling analysis—including both central processing unit (CPU) and graphics processing unit (GPU) architectures—complements the “Results” section.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Geologic History of Mars: An Astrobiology Perspective

Fourteen SNC meteorites contain information which must be incorporated with recent spaceflight data for developing Mars' geologic history. SNCs have crystallization ages of 4500 to 160 m.y. Tle oldest meteorite ALH84001 contains information on the Noachian period of Mars' history. There are no meteorites from the Hesperian period and the remaining 13 meteorites fall into two age groups within the Amazonian: The nakhlites around 1300 m.y. and the shergottites between 800-160 m.y. Oxygen isotopic analysis of Martian samples shows two distinct O2 reservoirs throughout Martian history indicating late additions of volatiles and a lack of plate tectonics prior to 3.9 Gy. Evidence for percolation of aqueous brines through impact-produced fractures in the rocky surface is contained in the 3.9 Gy-old ALH84001 carbonate deposits. These carbonates precipitated at approx. 100 C. At this time life had already evolved on Earth. Early Mars could have hosted life similar to the bacteria that inhabited early Earth. Potential microorganisms could have been transported into fractures by carbonate-bearing waters and their remains could have become incorporated into the precipitated carbonate. Since Mars had a weak magnetic field at this time, it can be hypothesized that some of the Martian microorganisms may have been similar to terrestrial magnetotactic bacteria. Over geologic time episodic cratering, and tectonic events have occurred on Mars along with the periodic release of subsurface waters which may have produced clays within SNC meteorites. The geochemical data contained within SNC meteorites complements previous observational data and the recent Mars Global Surveyor data to provide a geological and environmental history which spans almost the entire lifespan on Mars. One of the outstanding features of this model is the possible creation of an early (about 4 Gy) volatile reservoir distinct from the outgassed Mars volatiles, and the persistence of this reservoir throughout most, if not all of subsequent Mars' history. Within the framework of this history a potential scenario for a possible record of living organisms is provided by suggestive structures and organic signatures trapped within secondary mineral deposits and alteration features of some SNC meteorites. Tracing the differences in oxygen isotopic compositions within Martian components allows us to gain insight in the history of Mars.

Gibson, Everett K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model files to explore bedrock circulation depth and porosity in Copper Creek, Colorado

This data package contains integrated hydrological model input and output files for Copper Creek, Colorado (24 km2), a tributary of the East River located in the headwaters of the Upper Colorado River Basin. The model code is the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Groundwater and Surface Water Flow (GSFLOW) model. The model contains a 100-m grid resolution and a daily timestep. The land surface model is dynamically linked to a three-dimensional groundwater flow model that allows for streamflow gaining and losing conditions. The groundwater model contains 12 model layers and extends 400 m below land surface. The original Copper Creek model was modified to contain geologic layers representing saprolite, shallow bedrock, and deep bedrock. Endmember depth versus hydraulic conductivity relationships and porosity values for fractured crystalline rock are simulated. For the shallow case, median flow depths occur in the shallow saprolite at depths <8 m, while the deep case promotes a median groundwater flow depth of 100 m. With this modeling framework we compare streamflow response to a plausible worst-case drought lasting up to five years. Streamflow metrics of analysis include average streamflow, fraction of stream network that is dry, no-flow duration, average groundwater flow to streams and time to recovery following the drought. Results and implications are presented in a paper submitted to Geophysical Research Letters titled, "The role of bedrock circulation depth and porosity in mountain streamflow response to prolonged drought" by Rosemary WH. Carroll, Andrew H. Manning and Kenneth H Williams. A Readme.txt file provides instructions on how to download all model files and execute each model scenario. In addition to the GSFLOW output/prms/copper_drought.csv file containing daily basin water stores and fluxes (refer to GSFLOW manual) and the output/prms/copper_drought_statvar.dat file with output defined in the gsflow3.control file (refer to GSFLOW Manual), output files also include spatially distributed daily values of total evapotranspiration, canopy evaporation, precipitation, snowfall, infiltration, snow water equivalent, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, sublimation, soil moisture, contributing interflow, water table elevations, changes in groundwater storage, groundwater evapotranspiration, interbasin groundwater flow (limited to the alluvium below the stream outlet), and surface-groundwater exchanges within the river system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4)

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust and actionable insights for screening project finances.

CO2 storage↗

DOE OSTI2024

GDSA framework, a computational framework for complex modeling problems in radioactive waste management

This paper details a computational framework to produce automated, graphical workflows, and how this framework can be deployed to support complex modeling problems like those in nuclear engineering. Key benefits of the framework include: automating previously manual workflows; intuitive construction and communication of workflows through a graphical interface; and automated file transfer and handling for workflows deployed across heterogeneous computing resources. This paper demonstrates the framework's application to probabilistic post-closure performance assessment of systems for deep geologic disposal of nuclear waste. However, the framework is a general capability that can help users running a variety of computational studies.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Central Asia Hydrologic Monitoring Dataset for Food and Water Security Applications in Afghanistan

From the Hindu Kush mountains to the Registan Desert, Afghanistan is a diverse landscape where droughts, floods, conflict, and economic market accessibility pose challenges for agricultural livelihoods and food security. The ability to remotely monitor environmental conditions is critical to support decision making for humanitarian assistance. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams provide information on hydrologic states for routine integrated food security analysis. While developed for a specific project, these data are publicly available and useful for other applications that require hydrologic estimates of the water and energy balance. These two data streams are unique because of their suitability for routine monitoring, as well as for being a historical record for computing relative indicators of water availability. The global stream is available at ∼ 1-month latency, and monthly average outputs are on a 10 km grid from 1982–present. The second data stream, Central Asia (21–56°N, 30–100°E), at ∼ 1 d latency, provides daily average outputs on a 1 km grid from 2000–present. This paper describes the configuration of the two FLDAS data streams, background on the software modeling framework, selected meteorological inputs and parameters, and results from previous evaluation studies. We also provide additional analysis of precipitation and snow cover over Afghanistan. We conclude with an example of how these data are used in integrated food security analysis. For use in new and innovative studies that will improve understanding of this region, these data are hosted by U.S. Geological Survey data portals and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The Central Asia data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/VQ4CD3Y9YC0R (Jacob and Slinski, 2021), and the global data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/5NHC22T9375G (McNally, 2018).

Amy McNally↗

NASA NTRS2016

Lunar Phase Function at 1064 Nm from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter Passive and Active Radiometry

We present initial calibration and results of passive radiometry collected by the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter over the course of 12 months. After correcting for time- and temperature-dependent dark noise and detector responsivity variations, the LOLA passive radiometry measurements are brought onto the absolute radiance scale of the SELENE Spectral Profiler. The resulting photometric precision is estimated to be 5%. We leverage the unique ability of LOLA to measure normal albedo to explore the 1064 nm phase function's dependence on various geologic parameters. On a global scale, we find that iron abundance and optical maturity (quantified by FeO and OMAT) are the dominant controlling parameters. Titanium abundance (TiO2), surface roughness on decimeter to decameter scales, and soil thermo- physical properties have a smaller effect, but the latter two are correlated with OMAT, indicating that exposure age is the driving force behind their effects in a globally-averaged sense. The phase function also exhibits a dependence on surface slope at approximately 300 m baselines, possibly the result of mass wasting exposing immature material and/or less space weathering due to reduced sky visibility. Modeling the photometric function in the Hapke framework, we find that, relative to the highlands, the maria exhibit decreased backscattering, a smaller opposition effect (OE) width, and a smaller OE amplitude. Immature highlands regolith has a higher backscattering fraction and a larger OE width compared to mature highlands regolith. Within the maria, the backscattering fraction and OE width show little dependence on TiO2 and OMAT. Variations in the phase function shape at large phase angles are observed in and around the Copernican-aged Jackson crater, including its dark halo, a putative impact melt deposit. Finally, the phase function of the Reiner Gamma Formation behaves more optically immature than is typical for its composition and OMAT, suggesting the visible-to-near-infrared spectrum and phase function respond differently to the unusual regolith evolution and properties at this location. The phase difference map revealed additional geologically-influenced variations in the phase function's shape. In particular, variations were observed associated with the dark halo around Jackson crater, the impact ejecta of Copernicus and Giordano Bruno, and the Reiner Gamma Formation. For the latter, we 915 found that the phase function behaves more optically immature than the global phase function for its composition and OMAT, suggesting a difference in how the visible-to-near-IR spectrum and phase function respond to the unusual regolith evolution and properties at this location.

moon↗

NASA NTRS1974

Cratering on Mars. I - Cratering and obliteration history. II Implications for future cratering studies from Mariner 4 reanalysis

It is pointed out that Mars is especially well adapted to statistical studies of crater morphologies for deciphering its geological history. A framework for understanding planetary geomorphological histories from the diameter-frequency relations of different morphological classes of craters described by Chapmam et al. (1970) is extended in order to understand Martian cratering, erosional, and depositional history. The cratering-obliteration history derived is compared with global interpretations considered by Hartman (1973) and Soderblom et al. (1974). An idealized dust-filling model is employed.

Chapman, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

NE-COST plug-in: Expanding ACCERT's Capabilities for Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

The Algorithm for the Capital Cost Estimation of Reactor Technologies (ACCERT) is a structured methodology and software tool designed to simplify and standardize cost estimation for nuclear reactor technologies [1]. By utilizing a relational database structure and modular cost estimation algorithms, ACCERT delivers a robust, flexible, and scalable framework for evaluating costs across various reactor types and configurations [2]. The recent integration of the NE-COST plugin further expands ACCERT’s scope by introducing detailed life-cycle cost modeling and probabilistic analysis of uncertainties. This addition enables users to evaluate costs across front-end processes such as uranium enrichment and fabrication, as well as back-end activities including waste disposal and geologic storage. Through Monte Carlo statistical cost simulations, the plugin provides probabilistic insights into cost ranges, offering critical decision-making support for stakeholders including reactor developers, policymakers, and researchers.

Zhou, Jia↗

NASA NTRS1985

Similarities and contrasts in tectonic and volcanic style and history along the Colorado plateaus-to-basin and range transition zone in Western Arizona: Geologic framework for tertiary extensional tectonics

The overall temporal and spatial relations between middle Tertiary volcanism and tectonism from the Basin and Range province onto the edge of the Colorado Plateaus province suggest that a single magnetic-tectonic episode affected the entire region more or less simultaneously during this period. The episode followed a post-Laramide (late Eocene through Oligocene) period of 25 million years of relative stability. Middle Tertiary volcanism did not migrate gradually eastward in a simple fashion onto the Colorado Plateau. In fact, late Oligocene volcanism appears to be more voluminous near the Aquarius Mountains than throughout the adjacent Basin and Range province westward to the Colorado River. Any model proposed to explain the cause of extension and detachment faulting in the eastern part of the Basin and Range province must consider that the onset of volcanism appears to have been approximately synchronous from the Colorado River region of the Basin and Range across the transition zone and onto the edge of the Colorado Plateaus.

Young, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Scale Structural Features Database

The Basin-Scale Structural Features database provides spatial datasets of faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes compiled from public, authoritative sources (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey and State Geological Surveys) and aggregated into derivative forms to support subsurface assessments. Recognizing that characterizing basin-scale structural features requires interpreting data that are often ambiguous or lack key information, the source data were evaluated using a knowledge-data framework and geospatial fuzzy logic method (Justman et al., 2020) to represent both measured (observed) and predicted (inferred or potential) structural features as derivative datasets. This workflow employs conceptual models for known structural features and predicted structural features, incorporating geospatial data to estimate potential, even with limited data. The aim is to aid and support an understanding of basin-scale features and identify potential gaps in data and knowledge. As of 4/30/2025, the database includes resources for nine sedimentary basins: Appalachian, Denver, U.S. Gulf Coast, Illinois, Michigan, Permian, Sacramento, San Joquin and Williston. The database is organized by basin and then data category: 1) Faults, fractures, folds, 2) Earthquakes, 3) Topographic, 4) Structural contours and isopachs, 5) Geophysical, and 6) Structural feature density assessment maps.

basin scale↗

NASA NTRS1974

CARETS: An experimental regional information system using ERTS data

The U. S. Geological Survey CARETS (Central Atlantic Regional Ecological Test Site)/ERTS investigation is testing the applicability of ERTS data as input to an environmental information system for a multi-state mid-Atlantic region surrounding the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays. The information system framework encompasses a flow of information through several stages from sensor to user, and involving evaluation and feedback from several potential users. Basic assumptions of the CARETS project model are that there is a measurable environmental impact associated with land use and land use change as determined with remote sensor data, and that the ERTS derived land use data sets, when properly calibrated, may thus provide regional planners and administrators with a shortcut to an understanding of the environmental changes that are going on in their regions.

Alexander, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Discovery of nanopore filling by gypsum in wellbore cement exposed to 17 MPa CO 2 under geologic carbon storage conditions

Here, this study investigates the pore structure evolution of the reaction zones in wellbore cement samples exposed to a CO 2 -rich solution in equilibrium with 17 MPa supercritical CO 2 over 14 days. Through advanced characterization methods of field emission SEM, Quantitative Evaluation of Minerals by Scanning Electron Microscopy (QEMSCAN), and micro-CT, a new mechanism of CO 2 -cement reaction involving filling of nanopores in the interior of cement by gypsum was revealed. Gypsum was formed by the liberation of SO 4 2− from ettringite (AFt) and monosulfate (AFm) caused by a decrease in pH. Based on these experimental observations, a new CO 2 -cement reaction model that incorporates four distinct reaction zones is developed. This model provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of minerals in cement due to high pressure CO 2 —cement reactions. This study demonstrates that the major damage induced by high pressure CO 2 alteration occurs in the most exterior region of the cement. The interior region of the cement maintains its integrity due to nanopore filling by gypsum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗

NASA NTRS2018

Biocene 2018 - Welcome to the Period of New Life

Biocene is the period of new life. When our descendants look back at this period in time, they will see evidence, in the geologic and electronic record, of anthropic climate change, growing population, and scarcity of resources. But they will also see the rebirth of human ingenuity as we overcame the challenges that faced us through nature-inspired exploration. The Periodic Table of Life (PeTaL) is a proposed tool and open source framework that uses artificial intelligence to aid in the systematic inquiry of biology for its application to human systems. This presentation defines the PeTaL concept and workflow. Biomimicry, biophysics, biomimetics, bionics and numerous other terms refer to the use of biology and biological principles to inform practices in other disciplines. For the most part, the domain of inquiry in these fields have been confined to extant biological models with the proponents of biomimicry often citing the evolutionary success of extant organisms relative to extinct ones. The primary objective of this paper is to expand the domain of inquiry for human processes that seek to model those that are, were or could be found in nature with examples that relate to the field of aerospace and to spur development of tools that can work together to accelerate the use of artificial intelligence in problem solving. Specifically specialized fields such as paleomimesis, anthropomimesis and physioteleology are proposed in conjunction with artificial evolution. Blockchain technology may be vital in allowing open source design tools such as PeTaL to democratize design and yet protect intellectual property. The overarching philosophy outlined here can be thought of as physiomimetics, a holistic and systematic way of learning from natural history. The backbone of PeTaL integrates an unstructured database with an ontological model consisting of function, morphology, environment, state of matter and ecosystem. Tools include text classification, thesaurus, data visualization, and analysis. Applications of PeTaL include guiding human space exploration, understanding human and geological history, and discovering new or extinct life.

Biocene↗