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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Chemical and Kinematical Properties of Galactic Disks

We aim to quantify the chemical and kinematical properties of Galactic disks with a sample of 119,558 giant stars having abundances and 3D velocities taken or derived from the APOGEE DR17 and Gaia EDR3 catalogs. A Gaussian mixture model is employed to distinguish the high-α and low-α sequences along the metallicity by simultaneously using chemical and kinematical data. Four disk components are identified and quantified; they are named the hαmp, hαmr, lαmp, and lαmr disks and correspond to the high-α or low-α, and metal-poor or metal-rich properties. Combined with the spatial and stellar-age information, we confirm that they are well interpreted by the two-infall formation model. The first infall of turbulent gas quickly forms the hot and thick hαmp disk with consequent thinner hαmr and lαmr disks. Then the second gas accretion forms a thinner and outermost lαmp disk. We find that the inside-out and upside-down scenario does not only satisfy the overall Galactic disk formation of these two major episodes but is also presented in the formation sequence of the three inner disks. Importantly, we reveal the inverse age–[M/H] trend of the lαmr disk, which means its younger stars are more metal-poor, indicating that the rejuvenated gas from the second accretion gradually dominates later star formation. Meanwhile, the recently formed stars converge to [M/H] ~ –0.1 dex, demonstrating a sufficient mixture of gas from two infalls.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

New Measurements of the Lyα Forest Continuum and Effective Optical Depth with LyCAN and DESI Y1 Data

Abstract We present the Ly α Continuum Analysis Network (LyCAN), a convolutional neural network that predicts the unabsorbed quasar continuum within the rest-frame wavelength range of 1040–1600 Å based on the red side of the Ly α emission line (1216–1600 Å). We developed synthetic spectra based on a Gaussian mixture model representation of nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) coefficients. These coefficients were derived from high-resolution, low-redshift ( z < 0.2) Hubble Space Telescope/Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS) quasar spectra. We supplemented this COS-based synthetic sample with an equal number of DESI Year 5 mock spectra. LyCAN performs extremely well on testing sets, achieving a median error in the forest region of 1.5% on the DESI mock sample, 2.0% on the COS-based synthetic sample, and 4.1% on the original COS spectra. LyCAN outperforms principal component analysis (PCA) and NMF-based prediction methods using the same training set by 40% or more. We predict the intrinsic continua of 83,635 DESI Year 1 spectra in the redshift range of 2.1 ≤ z ≤ 4.2 and perform an absolute measurement of the evolution of the effective optical depth. This is the largest sample employed to measure the optical depth evolution to date. We fit a power law of the form τ ( z ) = τ 0 ( 1 + z ) γ to our measurements and find τ 0 = (2.46 ± 0.14) × 10 −3 and γ = 3.62 ± 0.04. Our results show particular agreement with high-resolution, ground-based observations around z = 2, indicating that LyCAN is able to predict the quasar continuum in the forest region with only spectral information outside the forest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Velocity Field of Our Milky Way Outer Stellar Halo Based on DESI DR2

Using 64,000 halo K giants from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument second Data Release (DR2), we decompose the Milky Way (MW) stellar halo between 3 and 160 kpc into metal-rich (MR) and metal-poor (MP) components via a Gaussian mixture model. The two populations are nearly equal in number but chemically and kinematically distinct: MR stars occupy highly radial orbits with velocity anisotropy of β ≈ 0.94 and metallicity dispersion σ [Fe/H] ≈ 0.17 dex, without obvious dependence on distance, and are mainly contributed by Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus (GSE) debris. The MR component dominates the inner 30 kpc and reemerges beyond 50 kpc, implying GSE debris can extend to ∼70–80 kpc. MP stars exhibit a weaker radial bias of β ≈ 0.46, decreasing to −0.5 beyond 80 kpc, and with a larger metallicity dispersion of σ [Fe/H] ≈ 0.46 dex, showing signatures of multiple minor mergers. Both components exhibit net prograde rotation at ∼10–30 kpc with a stronger azimuthal signal in the MP population. The nonequilibrium motions of the outer halo (>50 kpc) are quantified with a dipole-plus-contraction velocity field. We find that the outer halo is simultaneously contracting (μ compr = −19 km s −1 , distance-independent) and subject to reflex motions (μ dipole increases from −19 to −44 km s −1 with radius), reflecting the perturbation from the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We also confirm a linear dependence of mean polar velocity for the outer stellar halo on μ dipole , a direct consequence of the LMC and MW interaction. Our results provide a quantitative distance-resolved description of the MW’s last major accretion event and its ongoing response to the first infall of the LMC.

Li, Songting [Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Shang↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing the GD-1 Stream with DESI DR2 Data: Thin Stream and Hot Cocoon

GD-1 is among the longest, coldest stellar streams in the Milky Way, making it an ideal target for probing dark matter substructure through dynamical heating. We present a catalog of 608 spectroscopically confirmed GD-1 members from the first three years of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) observations. This constitutes the largest homogeneous spectroscopic sample of GD-1, doubling the number of members previously available only through heterogeneous compilations combining multiple surveys with different systematics. Using these data, we derive updated stream tracks in sky position, proper motion, and radial velocity that extend over $100^\circ$ of the stream. We apply a Gaussian mixture model to decompose the stream into a dynamically cold thin component ($σ_V = 2.49\pm 0.28$ km s$^{-1}$, width $= 0.23\pm0.01^\circ$) and a kinematically hot cocoon ($σ_V = 6.13\pm0.75$ km s$^{-1}$, width $= 2.18\pm0.17^\circ$). The cocoon contains $\sim30\%$ of members and its velocity dispersion is consistent with $\sim11$ Gyr of heating by cold dark matter subhalos. We also detect a large proper motion dispersion ($41.36\pm4.98$ km s$^{-1}$) along the stream direction in the cocoon component. This feature indicates a significant line-of-sight distance spread in the cocoon, and its origin will be further explored in a forthcoming paper. These measurements demonstrate the power of DESI spectroscopy for characterizing the multi-component phase-space structure of stellar streams and constraining small-scale dark matter substructure.

Jarvis, Emma [Toronto U.] (ORCID:0009000656127336)↗
DOE OSTI2025

BatteryPro: A Python Toolkit for Battery Data Analysis and Machine Learning Predictions

Analyzing battery test data for research & development can be time-consuming since battery tests often run on the order of months to years, generating large volumes of data. BatteryPro is a comprehensive Python package and software designed to facilitate advanced analysis and performance predictions for battery test data. Developed for battery researchers, it supports data types from widely used battery testing instruments, including MACCOR and Biologic cycling systems. The software provides a variety of tools for extracting and plotting key battery parameters such as time, voltage, capacity, current, and pressure. In addition to its extensive data analysis capabilities, BatteryPro features a dedicated machine learning module that employs a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to predict battery performance and degradation. Users can generate synthetic capacity fade data, calculate fade metrics, and leverage predictive models to forecast long-term battery behavior. The software's graphical user interface (GUI) enhances usability, allowing researchers to upload, merge, and analyze multiple data files with full customizability. The GUI also supports machine learning predictions, enabling users to fit models and make predictions based on selected data and parameters. BatteryPro is built using QtDesigner, scikit-learn, matplotlib, and pandas, ensuring a high level of customization, flexibility, and accuracy in battery data analysis. This tool aims to empower researchers with the ability to perform detailed battery analysis and make informed predictions, ultimately advancing the field of battery research.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust scalable initialization for Bayesian variational inference with multi-modal Laplace approximations

Predictive modeling typically relies on Bayesian model calibration to provide uncertainty quantification. Variational inference utilizing fully independent (“mean-field”) Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions. This simplification is attractive since the number of variational parameters grows only linearly with the number of unknown model parameters. However, the resulting diagonal covariance structure and unimodal behavior can be too restrictive to provide useful approximations of intractable Bayesian posteriors that exhibit highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors for these problems can be obtained by considering the family of Gaussian mixtures. Gaussian mixtures are capable of capturing multiple modes and approximating any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy, while maintaining some analytical tractability. Unfortunately, variational inference using Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. The existence of multiple local minima due to strong nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference present additional complications, These challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and computational scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with a global optimization stage in model parameter space. In this step, local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace approximation. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. The robustness and scalability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through application to an ensemble of synthetic tests using high-dimensional, multimodal probability density functions. Here, the practical aspects of the approach are demonstrated with inversion problems in structural dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Data Association for Orbital-Element Estimation Using Multistage Expectation–Maximization

Tracking space objects is important for managing space traffic and predicting collisions, but is difficult in part due to data association and orbit model uncertainty. Expectation–maximization (EM) is a commonly used tracking method that has not been widely considered for tracking space objects. The technique consists of iteratively computing data association probabilities with a set of current element estimates, and updating estimates of the elements by solving a nonlinear weighted least-squares regression problem where the weights are the data association probabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of EM for probabilistic data association and orbital-element estimation by applying the technique to simulated data from two angles-only tracking scenarios. In both scenarios, EM provides correct data associations and accurate maximum likelihood estimates of orbital elements. One scenario considers tracking a single object in clutter and quantifies the improvement of the orbital-element estimates and data associations as the detection probability increases. However, standard application of EM requires knowing the number of objects or may fail when a large number of objects are present. To address these issues, this paper employs a multistage version of EM that is applicable when there are a large and possibly unknown number of objects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

An unsupervised machine-learning checkpoint-restart algorithm using Gaussian mixtures for particle-in-cell simulations

We propose an unsupervised machine-learning checkpoint-restart (CR) algorithm for particle-in-cell (PIC) algorithms using Gaussian mixtures (GM). The algorithm compresses the particle population per spatial cell by constructing a velocity distribution function using GM. Particles are reconstructed at restart time by local resampling of the Gaussians. To guarantee fidelity of the CR process, we ensure the exact preservation of invariants such as charge, momentum, and energy for both compression and reconstruction stages, everywhere on the mesh. We also ensure the preservation of Gauss' law after particle reconstruction by exactly matching the density profile at restart time. As a result, the GM CR algorithm is shown to provide a clean, conservative restart capability while potentially affording orders of magnitude savings in input/output requirements. Here, we demonstrate the algorithm using a recently developed exactly energy- and charge-conserving PIC algorithm using both electrostatic and electromagnetic tests. The tests demonstrate not only a high-fidelity CR capability, but also its potential for enhancing the fidelity of the PIC solution for a given particle resolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning for Memory Reduction in the Implicit Monte Carlo Simulations of Thermal Radiative Transfer [Slides]

Project Goal: Use parametric Machine Learning methods in order to reduce memory requirements at checkpointing & restarting in the IMC simulations of Thermal Radiative Transfer using: Expectation Maximization and Weighted Gaussian Mixture Model-based approach for `particle-data compression', introduced in Plasma Physics to model Maxwellian particle distributions by Luis Chacon and Guangye Chen; Expectation Maximization with Weighted Hyper-Erlang Model in order to compress isotropic IMC particle data in the frequency domain; and Expectation Maximization and von Mises-Fisher Mixture Model for compression of anisotropic IMC particle data in the angular domain (work-in-progress).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effects of precise mass measurements of Ru and Pd isotopes on machine learning mass modeling

Atomic masses are a foundational quantity in our understanding of nuclear structure, astrophysics, and fundamental symmetries. The longstanding goal of creating a predictive global model for the binding energy of a nucleus remains a significant challenge, however, and prompts the need for precise measurements of atomic masses to serve as anchor points for model developments. We present precise mass measurements of neutron-rich Ru and Pd isotopes performed at the Californium Rare Isotope Breeder Upgrade facility at Argonne National Laboratory using the Canadian Penning Trap mass spectrometer. The masses of 108 Ru, 110 Ru, and 116 Pd were measured to a relative mass precision $\delta$⁢$m/m$ ≈ 10 -8 via the phase-imaging ion-cyclotron-resonance technique, and represent an improvement of approximately an order of magnitude over previous measurements. Further, these mass data were used in conjunction with the physically interpretable machine learning (PIML) model, which uses a mixture density neural network to model mass excesses via a mixture of Gaussian distributions. The effects of our new mass data on a Bayesian-updating of a PIML model are presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective shells in the interior of Cepheid variable stars: Overshooting models based on hydrodynamic simulations

Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonlinear models for coupling the effects of stimulated Raman scattering to inertial confinement fusion codes

Laser plasma instabilities (LPI) reduce driver-target coupling, alter implosion symmetry, and therefore can fundamentally limit fusion performance in inertial confinement fusion (ICF). Developing a predictive modeling capability for LPI effects can critically advance the success of the field. We perform vector particle-in-cell simulations of multi-speckled laser beams undergoing stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) at various densities and intensities relevant to mainly indirectly driven and a subset of parameter space for directly driven ICF systems, focusing on the regimes with intensities above the onset of electron trapping. Based on the wavenumber of the SRS daughter electron plasma wave, we identify several regions with underpinning SRS saturation physics: the electron-trapping dominated region with intermediate kλD values, the strong Landau damping region at larger kλD values, and the region where the Langmuir decay instability arises at lower kλD values. We develop a nonlinear SRS reflectivity model that features the base trapping-dominated scaling of (kλD)−4 and its modifications. Electron trapping deforms the initialized electron distribution functions, and we have developed a new δf-Gaussian-mixture algorithm for an accurate characterization of the trapped hot electron population. With this SRS hot electron description, we construct a nonlinear energy deposition model and a hot electron source model—based on a modified Manley–Rowe relation—suitable for including SRS effects as a sub-grid module in a high-fidelity ICF design code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unsupervised physics-informed disentanglement of multimodal data

Here, we introduce physics-informed multimodal autoencoders (PIMA) - a variational inference framework for discovering shared information in multimodal datasets. Individual modalities are embedded into a shared latent space and fused through a product-of-experts formulation, enabling a Gaussian mixture prior to identify shared features. Sampling from clusters allows cross-modal generative modeling, with a mixture-of-experts decoder that imposes inductive biases from prior scientific knowledge and thereby imparts structured disentanglement of the latent space. This approach enables cross-modal inference and the discovery of features in high-dimensional heterogeneous datasets. Consequently, this approach provides a means to discover fingerprints in multimodal scientific datasets and to avoid traditional bottlenecks related to high-fidelity measurement and characterization of scientific datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

IC Report for project “Developing nonlinear laser-plasma instability models for high-fidelity, multi-physics simulation capability for ICF/HED” [Slides]

We’ve achieved our technical goals: (1) Perform large-scale kinetic simulations of SRS and CBET a range of plasma and laser conditions; (2) Develop a new $\delta f$-Gaussian-mixture algorithm to represent non-Maxwellian distribution functions from particle trapping and time-dependent plasma response; (3) Develop physics-based preliminary nonlinear LPI models for coupling to LRT/ Mazinisin and AMP; and (4) Begin implementation of LPI sub-grid models into Mazinisin.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Activity coefficient acquisition with thermodynamics–informed active learning for phase diagram construction

This work explores the use of thermodynamics-informed Gaussian processes (GPs) and active learning (AL) to model activity coefficients and construct phase diagrams. Relying on synthetic data generated from an excess Gibbs energy model, GPs were found to accurately describe the activity coefficients of several binary mixtures across large composition and temperature ranges. Moreover, GPs could estimate their own uncertainty and identify composition/temperature regions where activity coefficient data provide the most information to the models. This was leveraged to build AL algorithms targeted at modeling phase equilibria. In many cases, a single active-learning-acquired data point was sufficient to describe the phase diagrams studied. Lastly, the ability of AL to greatly reduce the amount of data needed to obtain accurate models was further verified on experimental case studies, namely individual ion activity coefficients, the solid–liquid and vapor–liquid equilibrium of deep eutectic solvents, and phase equilibria in ternary mixtures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗