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68 records · Page 4

Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

Phimister, James R.↗

Klaus Mayer's Legacy and Leadership of Nuclear Forensics and the International Technical Working Group

The Nuclear Forensics International Technical Working Group (ITWG), in an evidentiary sense, has Dr. Klaus Mayer’s fingerprints all over it. His contributions to the working group and the broader international nuclear forensics community have been profound. As Klaus retires from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre in Karlsruhe, Germany (JRC-Karlsruhe), it is only fitting to reflect on his dedication and lasting impact on nuclear forensics—guiding its evolution from its early days to its establishment as a vital tool for competent authorities in preventing and responding to the serious threat of nuclear and other radioactive materials out of regulatory control.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Single-particle chemical analysis reveals organic-rich detonation soot products

The detonation of high explosives produces a wide variety of particulate matter (PM) with distinct properties, not all of which are traditionally studied for chemical composition, formation processes, and forensic applications. We report particle-resolved measurements of Composition B detonation soot using soot particle aerosol mass spectrometry (SP-AMS), identifying carbonaceous species and metals not previously characterized on a single-particle basis. Results are combined with scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) to enhance source-dependent signatures. Black carbon, including graphitic carbon and detonation nanodiamonds, contributed 50.5-71.4% of PM 2.5 mass, while 22.5-43.4% was non-refractory organic carbon, a previously overlooked component that exhibited a complex and varying composition. Detonations were performed with and without PMMA confinement and under steady and overdriven conditions. Distinct particles enriched with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were observed in experiments utilizing confinement, with quantities dependent on manufacturing method. SEM-EDS validated SP-AMS findings of metals internally mixed with carbonaceous species and extended the particle size range to 100 µm. This work makes detecting non-refractory organics using single-particle techniques more feasible for detonation forensics and understanding high-energy soot formation. While this analysis uses offline sample collection, SP-AMS could be deployed for in-situ measurements of detonation PM 2.5 transported in the atmosphere.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scanning transmission x-ray microscopy (STXM) of plutonium oxide

Scanning transmission x-ray microscopy was used to examine plutonium oxide particles formed by the corrosion of δ-phase plutonium alloy under high-humidity conditions. O K-edge spectra collected from eight distinct particles displayed significant spectral differences, revealing heterogeneity in oxidation states within a single sample batch. Here, this variation suggests complex chemical environments and formation histories, which are important considerations for nuclear forensic investigations. These findings highlight both the potential of synchrotron-based x-ray microscopy for nondestructive, high-resolution analysis of nuclear materials and the need for expanded reference datasets to improve the interpretation and forensic utility of such measurements.

organic↗

Addressing the dynamic nature of reference data: a new nucleotide database for robust metagenomic classification

Accurate metagenomic classification relies on comprehensive, up-to-date, and validated reference databases. While the NCBI BLAST Nucleotide (nt) database, encompassing a vast collection of sequences from all domains of life, represents an invaluable resource, its massive size—currently exceeding 10 12 nucleotides—and exponential growth pose significant challenges for researchers seeking to maintain current nt-based indices for metagenomic classification. Recognizing that no current nt-based indices exist for the widely used Centrifuge classifier, and the last public version currently available was released in 2018, we addressed this critical gap by leveraging advanced high-performance computing resources. We present new Centrifuge-compatible nt databases, meticulously constructed using a novel pipeline incorporating different quality control measures, including reference decontamination and filtering. These measures demonstrably reduce spurious classifications, as shown through our reanalysis of published metagenomic data where Plasmodium annotations were dramatically reduced using our decontaminated database, highlighting how database quality can significantly impact research conclusions. Through temporal comparisons, we also reveal how our approach minimizes inconsistencies in taxonomic assignments stemming from asynchronous updates between public sequence and taxonomy databases. These discrepancies are particularly evident in taxa such as Listeria monocytogenes and Naegleria fowleri, where classification accuracy varied significantly across database versions. These new databases, made available as pre-built Centrifuge indexes, respond to the need for an open, robust, nt-based pipeline for taxonomic classification in metagenomics. Applications such as environmental metagenomics, forensics, and clinical metagenomics, which require comprehensive taxonomic coverage, will benefit from this resource. Our work highlights the importance of treating reference databases as dynamic entities, subject to ongoing quality control and validation akin to software development best practices. This approach is crucial for ensuring accuracy and reliability of metagenomic analysis, especially as databases continue to expand in size and complexity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Metal alloy microparticle tagging of UO 2 fuel pellets for nuclear forensics

A tagging strategy for UO 2 fuel pellets will be discussed which involves the creation of alloyed metal microparticles that can be tuned to create a unique identification (“barcode”) indicating provenance of the pellets. These specialized markers would contain high temperature resistant materials, such as Ti, Mo, and Cr, in small quantities such that they do not interfere with the performance of the pellets but are recoverable by standard analytical techniques. The Amazemet rePowder ultrasonic atomization system was used to manufacture the microparticles, and sample pellets were fabricated and sintered containing these dopants. Various techniques, such as Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Electron Probe Microanalysis (EPMA), were used to evaluate these sample pellets to determine if particles (and their alloy compositions) were recoverable. Details on how the particles were manufactured and characterized will be detailed, as well as results from their incorporation into test pellets. Next steps will involve the scale of this technique using more conventional mass production methods, as well as the implementation of other alloys.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Diagnosis of PV Cell Antireflective Coating Degradation Resulting from Hot-Humid, High Voltage Potential Aging

Corrosion of the antireflective coating on a photovoltaic cell ("ARc corrosion") has previously been observed in studies using hot-humid test conditions with external high-voltage (HV) bias. This study primarily focuses on known vulnerable, legacy aluminum back surface field (Al-BSF) cells in mini-modules (MiMos) put through comparative stepped stress tests. Each cell type had MiMos at +1500 V, -1500 V, or unbiased ("Voc") potential, which were sequentially subjected to test conditions of 60deg C/60% relative humidity (RH) for 96 h, as in International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Technical Specification 62804-1; 70 deg C/70% RH for 200 h; and 85 deg C/85% RH for 200 h. Characterizations at each step included visual camera and electroluminescence (EL) imaging, colorimetry, and current-voltage (I-V) curve tracing. Final characterizations included: Suns-Voc; spatial mapping of external quantum efficiency (EQE); high-resolution photoluminescence (PL), EL, and dark lock-in thermography (DLIT) imaging. Forensics were performed on extracted cores, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and scanning Auger microscopy (SAM). Forensics were also conducted on MiMos from previous studies that underwent stepped HV aging and separate outdoor aged full-sized modules. ARc corrosion was specifically seen for the glass/encapsulant/cell side of the +1500V (HV+) stressed MiMos and modules. Appearance, color, and reflectance were the most distinguishing characteristics relative to glass corrosion, gridline-corrosion and -delamination as well as other concurrent degradation modes. SEM/EDS and SAM identified conversion of silicon nitride to hydrated silica, hydrous silica, or hydrated amorphous silica, which preferentially occurred at the edges and tips of the pyramidal textured cell surface.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Strontium isoscape of sub-Saharan Africa allows tracing origins of victims of the transatlantic slave trade

Abstract Strontium isotope ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) analysis with reference to strontium isotope landscapes (Sr isoscapes) allows reconstructing mobility and migration in archaeology, ecology, and forensics. However, despite the vast potential of research involving 87 Sr/ 86 Sr analysis particularly in Africa, Sr isoscapes remain unavailable for the largest parts of the continent. Here, we measure the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios in 778 environmental samples from 24 African countries and combine this data with published data to model a bioavailable Sr isoscape for sub-Saharan Africa using random forest regression. We demonstrate the efficacy of this Sr isoscape, in combination with other lines of evidence, to trace the African roots of individuals from historic slavery contexts, particularly those with highly radiogenic 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios uncommon in the African Diaspora. Our study provides an extensive African 87 Sr/ 86 Sr dataset which includes scientifically marginalized regions of Africa, with significant implications for the archaeology of the transatlantic slave trade, wildlife ecology, conservation, and forensics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Hyperspectral x-ray imaging mapping capabilities for nuclear forensics

Nuclear forensics relies on the integration of complementary signatures to constrain the origins and history of materials. Outcomes benefit from the timeliness and precision of the disparate methods that form typical analysis chains. Sample forms are often either minute in quantity or contain signatures like morphology or composition heterogeneity encoded on a microscale, so many analysis techniques focus on resolving signatures on ever-smaller length scales. The new hyperspectral x-ray imaging (HXI) instrument developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory seeks to improve the information available from scanning electron microscopy (SEM) x-ray spectrum analysis through superior spectral energy resolution vs. typical energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) systems in common use in nuclear forensics and other microanalysis fields. Based on arrays of transition-edge sensor (TES) microcalorimeter detectors, this instrument achieves a typical energy resolution of 7 eV full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) at 2 keV, opening new possibilities in trace element detection/analysis and chemical state determination through spectral shape shifts. We present here some of the first applications of the HXI instrument to actinide samples and discuss potential maturation of this nascent technology for future analysis pipelines.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Volatiles from the necrophagous fly Cochliomyia macellaria (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as indicators of Salmonella exposure

Blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are crucial in forensic investigations due to their association with both living and dead humans and other animals. Additionally, their interactions with various resources and potential as vectors of pathogens of humans and other animals, thus, make them potential tools for biosurveillance. This study investigated the potential of monitoring volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted by blow flies exposed to Salmonella as a method for pathogen surveillance. Adult blow flies ( Cochliomyia macellaria ) were exposed, or not, to Salmonella enterica . Following exposure, VOCs released by the blow flies were collected and analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Results indicate a treatment by time interaction (P < 0.01). Indicator species analysis identified a single compound significantly associated with S. enterica exposure (P = 0.02), Nonane, 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethyl, potentially indicating an immune system response. Given a compound indicating exposure was detected, future research should determine if more replicates could detect more differences after Salmonella ingestion. This research highlights the potential of blow flies as biosurveillance tools and the potential value of volatiles for assessing their exposure to pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical Reactivity of In-Situ Lunar Dust for Biotoxicity Assessment

Introduction: How does the chemical reactivity of in-situ lunar dust compare to Apollo samples currently stored in curation facilities here on Earth? Essential investigations of this question will help us to further mitigate exploration risks for future human explorers on the Moon and will also provide critical information for astrobiologists and space biologists using the Moon for scientific inquiry. Discussion: Apollo 14 dust biotoxicity studies, carried out by the NASA Lunar Airborne Dust Toxici-ty Assessment Group (LADTAG), included numerous physiochemical studies[1] and cellular and animal ex-periments. Intratracheal instillation [2] and inhalation studies [3] in rats both showed Apollo 14 dust to be intermediate in toxicity compared to low-tox titanium dusts and high-tox quartz dusts of similar particle siz-es. The collective results were used in models [4] to establish a safe exposure limit for astronauts [5]. Alt-hough LADTAG took extensive steps to preserve what chemical reactivity may still have existed in the sam-ples, it is simply unknown if they possessed true in-situ chemical reactivity or if that reactivity has de-cayed. Initial gas loss on collection and other altera-tions, and even intermittent exposure to Earth-normal conditions during subsequent decades of handling, obscure a forensic reconstruction of the initial state. Because a mineral dust’s chemical reactivity influ-ences its biotoxicity [6], researchers have developed methods to “activate” lunar dust and simulants [7][8]. Past studies that modeled impact processes and radia-tion [9] in the lunar environment suggest that in-situ lunar dust is likely to be more chemically reactive than Earth-exposed samples. Because of these results, in-situ measurements are warranted [10]. Other studies have examined the hydroxyl generating capability of iron bearing mineral phases [11][12] and further em-phasize the role iron plays in chemical reactivity of lunar material, as well as decay of chemical reactivity in mineral dusts [12]. Recent observations of the lunar surface reveal the presence of hematite [13], a finding that further supports the hypothesis that in-situ lunar dust is reactive. Since the lunar surface is heterogene-ous, dust biotoxicity is expected to vary from site to site [14] due to particle size, mineralogy, physical characteristics, degree of space weathering, and chemi-cal reactivity (Figure 1). This circumstance dictates dust assessments at a suite of lunar sites enabled by upcoming NASA and commercial lunar payload ser-vices (CLPS) opportunities. Dose, location, and dura-tion of particle exposure will also affect biological responses. In-situ chemical reactivity measurements can inform cross-cutting collaborative research cam-paigns such as astrobiology studies examining regolith interactions with organisms and its ability to preserve chemical and structural biomarkers, as well as space biology investigations that examine regolith-microbe interactions relating to life support systems, plant growth, biomining, and development of regolith bio-composites. Figure 1: Environment conditions on the lunar surface that may alter regolith reactivity. Summary A series of in-situ measurements of lu-nar dust free radical chemistry at future Artemis and CLPS landing sites, combined with LADTAG-like studies of freshly collected lunar dust specimens, will reveal the true chemical reactivity of in-situ lunar dust and generate scientific data that can be compared to the chemical reactivity and biotoxicity of samples from Apollo landing sites. Furthermore, results from in situ measurements and biotoxicity studies of freshly col-lected specimens can also be used to validate, or re-quire revision of, the current astronaut permissible exposure limit [15]. References: [1] McKay D et al (2015), Acta As-tronaut 107:163–176. [2] Rask J et al (2013), LPSC, p 3062. [3] Lam CW et al (2013), Inhal Toxicol 25:661–678. [4] James JT, et. al. (2013) , Inhal Toxicol 25:243–256. [5] Scully RR, et.al. (2013), Inhal Toxi-col 25:785–793. [6] Porter, D. W., et.al., (2002), Tox-icology 175, 63–71. [7] Wallace WT, et.al., (2009), Meteorit Planet Sci 44:961–970. [8] Wallace WT, et.al., (2010), Earth Planet Sci Lett 295:571–577. [9] Loftus D, Rask J, et.al., (2010), Earth Moon Planet 107:95–105. [10] Rask J, et.al., (2009) LEAG p 57. [11] Turci F, et.a., (2015), Astrobiology. 2015;15(5):371-380. [12] Hendrix DA, et.al., (2019), Geohealth. 2019;3(1):28-42. [13] Li, S., et.al., (2020), Science advances, 6(36), p.eaba1940. [14] Rask J. (2018), In: Cudnik B. (eds) Encyclopedia of Lunar Science. Springer, Cham. [15] Rask, J, (2020), LPI, Artemis III Sci. def. paper 2120.

chemical reactivity↗

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - September 2024 Meeting Notes

Information obtained from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi) is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. Commercial nuclear power plants. A collaborative U.S. and Japanese effort was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy to identify Daiichi examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. This document summarizes information presented at and findings, action items, and recommendations by U.S. and Japanese experts in reactor safety and plant operations during the September 2024 Forensics Effort meeting. Significant safety insights were obtained in several areas: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties and knowledge gaps in severe accident modeling progression, these insights continue to be used to assess whether additional updates are needed in guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Furthermore, Daiichi-related activities, such as code modeling improvements and analysis, testing, and new technology deployment efforts, have the potential to offer additional safety and economic benefits to the operating fleet and new light water reactor (LWR) and non-LWR designs.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗