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At least 73 records · Page 4

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Can urbanization process and carbon emission abatement be harmonious? New evidence from China

Highlights: • We study the effect and its mechanism of urbanization process on carbon emissions. • We use threshold regression and mediating effect models at China's provincial-level. • Urbanization and carbon emission abatement in China can achieve a harmonious state. • Abatement effect of urbanization on carbon emissions weakens with a deepening urbanization. • The relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is mediated by some factors. - Abstract: As the largest carbon emitter and developing country in the world, China's rapid urbanization in recent decades plays a significant role in carbon emissions. However, there is still no consensus on whether urbanization process and carbon emission abatement in China can achieve a harmonious state. Based on the panel data of China's 30 provincial-level regions during 2001–2014, this paper uses the threshold regression model and the mediating effect model to investigate the effect and its mechanism of urbanization process on carbon emissions measured by three indicators: carbon emission scale, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon intensity. The results show that urbanization can contribute to declines in carbon emission scale, per capita carbon emissions, and carbon intensity. That is to say, urbanization can present an abatement effect on carbon emissions. However, such an abatement effect is diminishing with a deepening urbanization. Moreover, the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions is mediated by four mediating variables, i.e., technological progress, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and foreign direct investment. Therefore, a harmonious relationship between urbanization and carbon emission abatement can be achieved if policy-makers attempt to arouse the positive mediation roles of such factors when formulating relevant policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attach s, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Historically, these analog years are visually identified; however, the qualitative nature of this method sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. Thus, one goal of this study is to derive a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years, based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). A second goal is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data).

Teng, William↗

A reappraisal of transport aircraft needs 1985 - 2000: Perceptions of airline management in a changing economic, regulatory, and technological environment

Views of the executives of 24 major, national, regional, and commuter airlines concerning the effect of recent regulatory, economic, and technological changes on the roles they see for their airlines, and consequent changes in their plans for acquiring aircraft for the 1985 to 2000 period were surveyed. Differing perceptions on the economic justification for new-technology jets in the context of the carriers' present and projected financial conditions are outlined. After examining the cases for new or intermediate size jets, the study discusses turboprop powered transports, including the carriers' potential interest in an advanced technology, high-speed turboprop or prop-fan. Finally, the implications of foreign competition are examined in terms of each carrier's evaluation of the quality and financial offerings, as well as possible 'Buy American' policy predisposition.

Spencer, F. A.↗

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 26: The relationship between technology policy and scientific and technical information within the US and Japanese aerospace industries

Government technology policy has nurtured the growth of the aerospace industry which is vital to both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Japanese technology policy differs significantly from U.S. technology policy, however, particularly with respect to the production, transfer, and use of scientific and technical information (STI). In this paper, we discuss the unique position of the aerospace industry in the U.S. and Japan, U.S. and Japanese aerospace policy, and the role of STI in the process of aerospace innovation. The information-seeking behaviors of U.S. and Japanese aerospace engineers and scientists are compared. The authors advocate the development of innovation-adoption technology and STI policy goals for U.S. aerospace and the inclusion of an aerospace knowledge diffusion transfer system with an 'active' component for scanning and acquiring foreign aerospace technology and STI.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

NASA/DoD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. XXVI - The relationship between technology policy and scientific and technical information within the U.S. and Japanese aerospace industries

Government technology policy has nurtured the growth of the aerospace industry, which is vital to both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Japanese technology policy differs significantly from U.S. technology policy, however, particularly with respect to the production, transfer, and use of scientific and technical information (STI). In this paper, we discuss the unique position of the aerospace industry in the U.S. and Japan, U.S. and Japanese aerospace policy, and the role of STI in the process of aerospace innovation. The information-seeking behaviors of U.S. and Japanese aerospace engineers and scientists are compared. The authors advocate the development of innovation-adoption technology and STI policy goals for U.S. aerospace and the inclusion of an aerospace knowledge diffusion transfer system with an 'active' component for scanning and acquiring foreign aerospace technology and STI.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗

NASDA's earth observation satellite data archive policy for the earth observation data and information system (EOIS)

NASDA's new Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) is scheduled for launch in August, 1996. ADEOS carries 8 sensors to observe earth environmental phenomena and sends their data to NASDA, NASA, and other foreign ground stations around the world. The downlink data bit rate for ADEOS is 126 MB/s and the total volume of data is about 100 GB per day. To archive and manage such a large quantity of data with high reliability and easy accessibility it was necessary to develop a new mass storage system with a catalogue information database using advanced database management technology. The data will be archived and maintained in the Master Data Storage Subsystem (MDSS) which is one subsystem in NASDA's new Earth Observation data and Information System (EOIS). The MDSS is based on a SONY ID1 digital tape robotics system. This paper provides an overview of the EOIS system, with a focus on the Master Data Storage Subsystem and the NASDA Earth Observation Center (EOC) archive policy for earth observation satellite data.

Sobue, Shin-ichi↗

Assessment of Needs for Further Research to Understand the Role of Governments in Supporting Geothermal Exploration

This paper looks at financing barriers to geothermal resource exploration in the United States (U.S.) for electricity generation projects and analyzes why the market is not developing as quickly as foreign geothermal markets or as quickly as other renewable energy technologies in the U.S. Research opportunities and approaches to understanding these discrepancies are discussed, particularly whether government policies and programs are spurring development activities. Further analysis to understand policies, programmatic cost efficiencies, potential project revenues, and other economic impacts are recommended together with the preliminary conclusions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Hydrologic and Agricultural Earth Observations and Modeling for the Water-Food Nexus

In a globalizing and rapidly-developing world, reliable, sustainable access to water and food are inextricably linked to each other and basic human rights. Achieving security and sustainability in both requires recognition of these linkages, as well as continued innovations in both science and policy. We present case studies of how Earth observations are being used in applications at the nexus of water and food security: crop monitoring in support of G20 global market assessments, water stress early warning for USAID, soil moisture monitoring for USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service, and identifying food security vulnerabilities for climate change assessments for the UN and the UK international development agency. These case studies demonstrate that Earth observations are essential for providing the data and scalability to monitor relevant indicators across space and time, as well as understanding agriculture, the hydrological cycle, and the water-food nexus. The described projects follow the guidelines for co-developing useable knowledge for sustainable development policy. We show how working closely with stakeholders is essential for transforming NASA Earth observations into accurate, timely, and relevant information for water-food nexus decision support. We conclude with recommendations for continued efforts in using Earth observations for addressing the water-food nexus and the need to incorporate the role of energy for improved food and water security assessments

Food Security↗

An updated assessment of oil market disruption risks

The probability of the size and duration of another oil disruption is critical to estimating the value of any policies for reducing the economic damages from a sudden oil supply disruption. The Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University developed a risk assessment framework and evaluated the likelihood of one or more foreign oil disruptions over the next ten years. Leading geopolitical, military and oil-market experts provided their expertise on the probability of different events occurring, and their corresponding link to major disruptions in key oil market regions. The study evaluated 5 primary regions of production: Saudi Arabia, Other Persian Gulf, Africa, Latin America, and Russian / Caspian States. Disruptions are defined as being net of offsets (e.g., OPEC spare capacity), with the notable exception that the SPR is not included as a source of offsets. Furthermore, at least once during the 10-year time frame (2016–2025), there exists approximately an 80% probability of a net (of offsets) disruption of 2 MMBD (million barrels per day) or more lasting at least 1 month.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Manufacturing Valuable Coal-Derived Products in Southern Appalachia

This project’s objective is to develop and deploy new technologies for manufacturing rare earth elements (REE), critical minerals (CM), and valuable non-fuel, carbon-based products (CBP) from coal and/or coal waste in the SoApp Basin, thus revitalizing distressed SoApp coal communities and reducing reliance on foreign imports of REE and CM. Resource availability and technological advances alone will not ensure this objective is met. The right mix of business climate, market forces, and policy will also be needed. This report identifies the critical technologies, infrastructure, supply chains, human capital, and policy gaps that must be addressed to manufacture REE, CM, and CBP from coal resources and wastes in SoApp The primary goal of the project is to characterize the resource base in the SoApp Basin.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

The U.S. DOE-EM international program - 15026

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) conducts international collaboration activities in support of U.S. policies and objectives regarding the accelerated risk reduction and remediation of the environmental cleanup legacy resulting from the nations' nuclear weapons program and government sponsored nuclear energy research. The EM International Program, supported out of the EM Office of the Associate Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary pursues collaborations with foreign government organizations, educational institutions and private industry to assist in identifying technologies and promote international collaborations that leverage resources and link international experience and expertise. The primary objective of the International Program is to work closely with the various technical program offices within EM (e.g., tank waste and nuclear materials management, groundwater and soil remediation, deactivation and decommissioning) to identify collaborative opportunities related to innovative technologies, as well as best management practices, that support successful completion of the EM mission. This objective is directly aligned with the current DOE Strategic Plan 2014 - 2018, issued in April 2014. In mid-fiscal year (FY) 2014, the International Program awarded several collaborative projects for work scope spanning waste management, tank waste management, groundwater and soil remediation, deactivation and decommissioning (D and D), disposal operations, and nuclear materials disposition initiatives to nine foreign organizations. These projects include both technical and non-technical activities, with opportunities for continuation into FY 2015 and beyond. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

University-level Non-proliferation and Safeguards Education and Human Capital Development Activities at Brookhaven National Laboratory

BNL has offered Nuclear Nonproliferation, Safeguards and Security in the 21st Century,? referred to as NNSS, every year since 2009 for graduate students in technical and policy fields related to nuclear safeguards and nonproliferation. The course focuses on relevant policy issues, in addition to technical components, and is part of a larger NGSI short course initiative that includes separate courses that are delivered at three other national laboratories and NNSA headquarters. [SCHOLZ and ROSENTHAL] The course includes lectures from esteemed nonproliferation experts, tours of various BNL facilities and laboratories, and in-field and table-top exercises on both technical and policy subjects. Topics include the history of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and other relevant treaties, the history of and advances in international nuclear safeguards, current relevant political situations in countries such as Iran, Iraq, and the Democratic Peoples? Republic of Korea (DPRK), nuclear science and technology, instrumentation and techniques used for verification activities, and associated research and development. The students conduct a mock Design Information Verification (DIV) at BNL?s decommissioned Medical Research Reactor. The capstone of the course includes a series of student presentations in which students act as policy advisors and provide recommendations in response to scenarios involving a current nonproliferation related event that are prepared by the course organizers. ?The course is open to domestic and foreign students, and caters to students in, entering, or recently having completed graduate school. Interested students must complete an application and provide a resume and a statement describing their interest in the course. Eighteen to 22 students attend annually; 165 students have completed the course to date. A stipend helps to defray students? travel and subsistence expenses. In 2015, the course was shortened from three weeks to two weeks to streamline the material, standardize NGSI course length, and draw in a larger applicant pool. ?The international and interdisciplinary mix of students attending the course encourages discussions of the topics presented during the course. Information about the course is available at https://www.bnl.gov/nnsscourse/. While a complete analysis of course students has not been undertaken, BNL is aware of three individuals who worked at national laboratories after attending the NNSS course, one who worked at a national laboratory prior to attending NNSS, two who worked as federal employees after attending NNSS, three who were Nonproliferation Graduate Fellows before or after attending NNSS, and three who have participated in other NGSI activities.?Design Information Verification is an IAEA inspection activity that is implemented for the purpose of ensuring that the facility design is consistent with the declared use of a facility.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare

A recursive multisector dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model simulates the economic impacts of carbon tariffs, as proposed by the USA, ranging from $\$40/t to $\$60/t CO 2 . We examine a carbon tax and export subsidy as response policies to the U.S. carbon tariff, respectively. The dynamic model shows the possible impacts of these policies on China’s economic structure, carbon emissions, and social welfare from 2020 to 2030. Simulations show that a carbon tariff changes the structure of China’s exports and promotes trade diversion from the USA to other countries and regions. A domestic carbon tax and subsidy policy can dampen the adverse impacts of carbon tariffs on trade. A carbon tax shows an effective impact on increasing clean energy use, decreasing the carbon intensity of output, and reducing carbon emissions. A subsidy on exports to the USA reduces the adverse impact of a carbon tariff on China’s social welfare in the short term.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nuclear security policy in the context of counter-terrorism in Cambodia

The risk of nuclear or dirty bomb attack by terrorists is one of the most urgent and threatening danger. The Cambodian national strategy to combat weapons of mass destruction (WMD) depicts a layered system of preventive measures ranging from securing materials at foreign sources to interdicting weapons or nuclear or other radioactive materials at ports, border crossings, and within the Cambodian institutions dealing with the nuclear security to manage the preventive programs. The aim of this study is to formulate guidance, to identify scenario of threat and risk, and to pinpoint necessary legal frameworks on nuclear security in the context of counterterrorism based on the International Atomic Energy Agency nuclear security series. The analysis of this study is guided by theoretical review, the review of international laws and politics, by identifying and interpreting applicable rules and norms establishing the nuclear security regime and how well enforcement of the regime is carried out and, what is the likelihood of the future reform might be. This study will examine the existing national legal frameworks of Cambodia in the context of counterterrorism to prevent acts of nuclear terrorism and the threat of a terrorist nuclear attack within the Cambodia territory. It will shed light on departmental lanes of national nuclear security responsibility, and provide a holistic perspective on the needs of additional resources and emphasis regarding nuclear security policy in the context of counterterrorism in Cambodia.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Organizational Influence on Supply Chain for Digital Energy Infrastructure: Business Models, and Policy Landscape

Significant investment is driving the essential modernization and digitization of U.S. energy infrastructure, but the United States faces a key challenge in this grid transformation: our renewable and clean energy supply chains have limited capacity to source necessary digital assets through U.S. or allied sources. Batteries and their associated power electronic interfaces are key components to delivering clean and more resilient energy delivery, providing much-needed fast ramping, emergency discharge, generation, and operations support to the electric grid. These services have grown to be invaluable over the past 10 years and will soon be an irreplaceable component of energy delivery. While there have been significant strides to move supply chains for raw and critical materials to U.S. and allied nations, the control and power electronic industry has lagged, in part because of lower cost margins. For example, the United States now has growing capacity to manufacture solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, but 90% of the inverters—which are essential to the conversion of DC to AC for grid connection and controls—are made in or source parts from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While a global supply chain is beneficial for many economic and supply diversification reasons, presence of foreign entities of concern (FEOC) in a dominant role in this supply chain brings additional concerns for national security of infrastructure. The BESS relationship and new clean energy have features that warrant discussions and additional focus on impact for technology security, given their critical role. This review considers the impact and solutions for complex business and policy landscapes in clean energy supply chain, and the benefit trade-offs, focusing on the Battery Energy Storage System case study, and its complex organizational relationships across both the US, Allied countries and Foreign Entities of Concern. While many examples in this paper are presented on PRC focused manufacture, this could apply to any potentially adversarial relationship

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗

Non-US approaches to space commercialization

The approaches to the commercialization of space taken by the four foreign countries most active in the field - Canada, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan are described. National space program elements with commercial potential are examined in the context of national industrial and science policies, with special attention to objectives, timetables, and budgetary priority relative to other sectors. The role of the European Space Agency in attaining national and regional commercialization objectives is also examined.

Smith, P. G.↗

High energy from space

The following subject areas are covered: (1) important scientific problems for high energy astrophysics (stellar activity, the interstellar medium in galaxies, supernovae and endpoints of stellar evolution, nucleosynthesis, relativistic plasmas and matter under extreme conditions, nature of gamma-bursts, identification of black holes, active nuclei, accretion physics, large-scale structures, intracluster medium, nature of dark matter, and the X- and gamma-ray background); (2) the existing experimental programs (Advanced X-Ray Astrophysics Facility (AXAF), Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO), X-Ray Timing Explorer (XTE), High Energy Transient Experiment (HETE), U.S. participation in foreign missions, and attached Shuttle and Space Station Freedom payloads); (3) major missions for the 1990's; (4) a new program of moderate missions; (5) new opportunities for small missions; (6) technology development issues; and (7) policy issues.

Margon, Bruce↗