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At least 73 records · Page 4

How Have Hydrological Extremes Changed Over the Past 20 Years?

Severe floods and droughts, including their back-to-back occurrences (weather whiplash), have been increasing in frequency and severity around the world. Improved understanding of systematic changes in hydrological extremes is essential for preparation and adaptation. In this study, we identified and quantified extreme wet and dry events globally by applying a clustering algorithm to terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (FO). The most intense events, ranked using an intensity metric, often reflect impacts of large-scale oceanic oscillations such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and consequences of climate change. The severity of both wet and dry events, represented by standardized TWS anomalies, increased significantly in most cases, likely associated with intensification of wet and dry weather regimes in a warmer world, and consequently, exhibited strongest correlation with global temperature. In the Dry climate, the number of wet events decreased while the number of dry events increased significantly, suggesting a drying trend that may be attributed to climate variability and possible increases in irrigation and reliance on groundwater. In the Continental climate where temperature has risen faster than global average, dry events increased significantly. Characteristics of extreme events often showed strong correlations with global temperature, especially when averaged over all climates. These results suggest changes in hydrological extremes and underscore the importance of quantifying total water storage changes when studying hydrological extremes. Extending the GRACE/FO record, which spans 2002 to the present, is essential to continuously tracking changes in TWS and hydrological extremes.

Bailing Li↗

Extreme Temperature Electronics Using a Reconfigurable Analog Array

Temperature and radiation tolerant electronics, as well as long life survivability are key capabilities required for future NASA missions. Current approaches to electronics for extreme environments focus on component level robustness and hardening. Compensation techniques such as bias cancellation circuitry have also been employed. However, current technology can only ensure very limited lifetime in extreme environments. Previous work presented a novel approach, based on evolvable hardware technology, which allows adaptive in-situ circuit redesign/reconfiguration during operation in extreme environments. This technology would complement material/device advancements and increase the mission capability to survive harsh environments. This work describes a new reconfigurable analog chip developed by JPL and SPAWAR that is targeted for extreme temperature and evolutionary hardware experiments. Being based on Gm-C technology, this chip can have its functionality tuned and adapted to extreme temperatures through voltage bias adjustment. This tuning process will be controlled by Evolutionary Algorithms. This paper presents details of the reconfigurable analog chip as well as a system level overview. Some early experiments are also described.

evolvable hardware↗

Extreme Environment Simulation - Current and New Capabilities to Simulate Venus and Other Planetary Bodies

Science, technology, and planetary mission communities have a growing interest in components and systems that are capable of working in extreme (high) temperature and pressure conditions. Terrestrial applications range from scientific research, aerospace, defense, automotive systems, energy storage and power distribution, deep mining and others. As the target environments get increasingly extreme, capabilities to develop and test the sensors and systems designed to operate in such environments will be required. An application of particular importance to the planetary science community is the ability for a robotic lander to survive on the Venus surface where pressures are nearly 100 times that of Earth and temperatures approach 500C. The scientific importance and relevance of Venus missions are stated in the current Planetary Decadal Survey. Further, several missions to Venus were proposed in the most recent Discovery call. Despite this interest, the ability to accurately simulate Venus conditions at a scale that can test and validate instruments and spacecraft systems and accurately simulate the Venus atmosphere has been lacking. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities that are known to exist within and outside the United States to simulate the extreme environmental conditions found in terrestrial or planetary surfaces including the Venus atmosphere and surface. The paper then focuses on discussing the recent additional capability found in the NASA Glenn Extreme Environment Rig (GEER). The GEER, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio, is designed to simulate not only the temperature and pressure extremes described, but can also accurately reproduce the atmospheric compositions of bodies in the solar system including those with acidic and hazardous elements. GEER capabilities and characteristics are described along with operational considerations relevant to potential users. The paper presents initial operating results and concludes with a sampling of investigations or tests that have been requested or expected.

Extreme Environment↗

Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

Agricultural systems↗

Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development Status

The Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project is a NASA STMD and SMD co-funded effort. The goal is to develop and mission infuse a new ablative Thermal Protection System that can withstand extreme entry. It is targeted to support NASAs high priority missions, as defined in the latest decadal survey, to destinations such as Venus and Saturn in-situ robotic science missions. Entry into these planetary atmospheres results in extreme heating. The entry peak heat-flux and associated pressure are estimated to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher than those experienced by Mars Science Laboratory or Lunar return missions. In the recent New Frontiers community announcement NASA has indicated that it is considering providing an increase to the PI managed mission cost (PIMMC) for investigations utilizing the Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and in addition, NASA is considering limiting the risk assessment to only their accommodation on the spacecraft and the mission environment. The HEEET ablative TPS utilizes 3D weaving technology to manufacture a dual layer material architecture. The 3-D weaving allows for flat panels to be woven. The dual layer consists of a top layer designed to withstand the extreme external environment while the inner or insulating layer by design, is designed to achieve low thermal conductivity, and it keeps the heat from conducting towards the structure underneath. Both arc jet testing combined with material properties have been used to develop thermal response models that allows for comparison of performance with heritage carbon phenolic. A 50 mass efficiency is achieved by the dual layer construct compared to carbon phenolic for a broad range of missions both to Saturn and Venus. The 3-D woven flat preforms are molded to achieve the shape as they are compliant and then resin infusion with curing forms a rigid panels. These panels are then bonded on to the aeroshell structure. Gaps exist between the panels and these gaps have to be filled with seams. The seam material then has to be bonded on to adjacent panels and also to the structure. The heat-shield assembly is shown in Figure 1. One of the significant challenges we have overcome recently is the design, development and testing of the seam. HEEET material development and the seam concept development have utilized some of the unique test capabilities available in the US. The various test facilities utilized in thermal testing along with the entry environment for Saturn and Venus missions are shown in Figure 2. The HEEET project is currently in its 3rd year of a four-year development. Figure 3 illustrates the key accomplishments to date and the challenges yet to be overcome before the technology is ready for mission infusion. This proposed presentation will cover both progress that has been made in the HEEET project and also the challenges to be overcome that is highlighted in Figure 3. Objective of the HEEET project is to mature the system in time to support the next New Frontiers opportunity and we believe we are well along the way to mission infuse HEEET.

Thermal Protection System↗

A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

Heat events↗

Adaptation to environmental extremes structures functional traits in biological soil crust and hypolithic microbial communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread in drylands and deserts. At the microhabitat scale, they also host hypolithic communities that live under semi-translucent stones. Both environmental niches experience exposure to extreme conditions such as high UV radiation, desiccation, temperature fluctuations, and resource limitation. However, hypolithic communities are somewhat protected from extremes relative to biocrust communities. Conditions are otherwise similar, so comparing them can answer outstanding questions regarding adaptations to environmental extremes. Using metagenomic sequencing, we assessed the functional potential of dryland soil communities and identified the functional underpinnings of ecological niche differentiation in biocrusts versus hypoliths. We also determined the effect of the anchoring photoautotroph (moss or cyanobacteria). Genes and pathways differing in abundance between biocrusts and hypoliths indicate that biocrust communities adapt to the higher levels of UV radiation, desiccation, and temperature extremes through an increased ability to repair damaged DNA, sense and respond to environmental stimuli, and interact with other community members and the environment. Intracellular competition appears to be crucial to both communities, with biocrust communities waging war using the Type VI Secretion System (T6SS) and hypoliths favoring diversity of antibiotics. The dominant primary producer had a reduced effect on community functional potential compared with niche, but an abundance of genes related to monosaccharide, amino acid, and osmoprotectant uptake in moss-dominated communities indicates reliance on resources provided to heterotrophs by mosses. Our findings indicate that functional traits in dryland communities are driven by adaptations to extremes and we identify strategies that likely enable survival in dryland ecosystems.

Biological soil crusts↗

Vegetation Greening Mitigates the Impacts of Increasing Extreme Rainfall on Runoff Events

Future flood risk assessment has primarily focused on heavy rainfall as the main driver, with the assumption that projected increases in extreme rain events will lead to subsequent flooding. However, the presence of and changes in vegetation have long been known to influence the relationship between rainfall and runoff. Here, we extract historical (1850–1880) and projected (2070–2100) daily extreme rainfall events, the corresponding runoff, and antecedent conditions simulated in a prominent large Earth system model ensemble to examine the shifting extreme rainfall and runoff relationship. Even with widespread projected increases in the magnitude (78% of the land surface) and number (72%) of extreme rainfall events, we find projected declines in event-based runoff ratio (runoff/rainfall) for a majority (57%) of the Earth surface. Runoff ratio declines are linked with decreases in antecedent soil water driven by greater transpiration and canopy evaporation (both linked to vegetation greening) compared to areas with runoff ratio increases. Using a machine learning regression tree approach, we find that changes in canopy evaporation is the most important variable related to changes in antecedent soil water content in areas of decreased runoff ratios (with minimal changes in antecedent rainfall) while antecedent ground evaporation is the most important variable in areas of increased runoff ratios. Our results suggest that simulated interactions between vegetation greening, increasing evaporative demand, and antecedent soil drying are projected to diminish runoff associated with extreme rainfall events, with important implications for society.

soil moisture↗

Extreme Mean and Its Applications

Extreme value statistics obtained from normally distributed data are considered. An extreme mean is defined as the mean of p-th probability truncated normal distribution. An unbiased estimate of this extreme mean and its large sample distribution are derived. The distribution of this estimate even for very large samples is found to be nonnormal. Further, as the sample size increases, the variance of the unbiased estimate converges to the Cramer-Rao lower bound. The computer program used to obtain the density and distribution functions of the standardized unbiased estimate, and the confidence intervals of the extreme mean for any data are included for ready application. An example is included to demonstrate the usefulness of extreme mean application.

Swaroop, R.↗

Profiles of temperature and density based on extremes at 5, 10, 20, 30 and 40 km

Information on the vertical distribution of expected extremes of temperature and density are required for the design and operation of systems traversing the atmosphere. Such data are particularly important at altitudes from the surface to approximately 80 km for developing all types of airborne vehicles ranging from helicopters and airplanes to sophisticated aerospace systems. Vertical profiles of temperature and density have been developed based on 1- and 10-percent hot and cold temperatures and 1- and 10- percent high and low densities occurring during the most severe month at the worst locations for which reliable upper-air data are available. The model profiles, from the surface to 80 km, are based on extremes that occur at 5, 10, 20, 30, and 40 km. There are 20 profiles for extreme temperatures (5 levels by 4 percentiles) that include associated densities, and 20 analogous profiles for extreme densities including associated temperatures. Consequently, a set of realistic profiles (rather than envelopes) of temperature and density, associated with extremes at each of 5 specified levels in the troposphere and stratosphere, are now available for altitudes up to 80 km.

Kantor, A. J.↗

Bivariate extreme value distributions

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Elshamy, M.↗

The Extreme Universe Space Observatory

This talk will describe the Extreme Universe Space Observatory (EUSO) mission. EUSO is an ESA mission to explore the most powerful energy sources in the universe. The mission objectives of EUSO are to investigate EECRs, those with energies above 3x10(exp 19) eV, and very high-energy cosmic neutrinos. These objectives are directly related to extreme conditions in the physical world and possibly involve the early history of the big bang and the framework of GUTs. EUSO tackles the basic problem posed by the existence of these extreme-energy events. The solution could have a unique impact on fundamental physics, cosmology, and/or astrophysics. At these energies, magnetic deflection is thought to be so small that the EECR component would serve as the particle channel for astronomy. EUSO will make the first measurements of EAS from space by observing atmospheric fluorescence in the Earth's night sky. With measurements of the airshower track, EUSO will determine the energy and arrival direction of these extreme-energy events. EUSO will make high statistics observations of CRs beyond the predicted GZK cutoff energy and widen the channel for high-energy neutrino astronomy. The energy spectra, arrival directions, and shower profiles will be analyzed to distinguish the nature of these events and search for their sources. With EUSO data, we will have the possibility to discover a local EECR source, test Z-burst scenarios and other theories, and look for evidence of the breakdown of the relativity principle at extreme Lorentz factors.

Adams, Jim↗

Extreme Space Weather Events and Charging Hazard Assessments in Lunar Environments

The sunlit lunar surface charges to positive potentials with mean values of a few tens of volts where photoelectron currents dominate the charging process. In contrast, surfaces in darkness may charge to negative potentials on the order of a few hundred volts when the charging process is dominated by hot electron populations in the absence of solar photons. Recently, observations of electron beams measured by instruments on spacecraft in low lunar orbit have been interpreted as evidence for extreme lunar surface potentials exceeding a few kilovolts suggesting that lunar orbital and surface plasma environments may contain charging risks similar to geostationary orbit during extreme space weather conditions. Space system design for successful operation in a wide range of lunar environments will therefore require evaluation of charging hazards during extreme space weather conditions. We present results from a study of space weather environments conducted to obtained credible extreme charging environments for use in charging hazard assessments for lunar missions including extreme conditions encountered when the Moon is in the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the Earth's magnetotail.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Electronic Components for use in Extreme Temperature Aerospace Applications

Electrical power management and control systems designed for use in planetary exploration missions and deep space probes require electronics that are capable of efficient and reliable operation under extreme temperature conditions. Space-based infra-red satellites, all-electric ships, jet engines, electromagnetic launchers, magnetic levitation transport systems, and power facilities are also typical examples where the electronics are expected to be exposed to harsh temperatures and to operate under severe thermal swings. Most commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) devices are not designed to function under such extreme conditions and, therefore, new parts must be developed or the conventional devices need to be modified. For example, spacecraft operating in the cold environment of deep space carry a large number of radioisotope heating units in order to maintain the surrounding temperature of the on-board electronics at approximately 20 C. At the other end, built-in radiators and coolers render the operation of electronics possible under hot conditions. These thermal measures lead to design complexity, affect development costs, and increase size and weight. Electronics capable of operation at extreme temperatures, thus, will not only tolerate the hostile operational environment, but also make the overall system efficient, more reliable, and less expensive. The Extreme Temperature Electronics Program at the NASA Glenn Research Center focuses on research and development of electronics suitable for applications in the aerospace environment and deep space exploration missions. Research is being conducted on devices, including COTS parts, for potential use under extreme temperatures. These components include semiconductor switching devices, passive devices, DC/DC converters, operational amplifiers, and oscillators. An overview of the program will be presented along with some experimental findings.

Patterson, Richard L.↗

Characterization of Low Noise, Precision Voltage Reference REF5025-HT Under Extreme Temperatures

The performance of Texas Instruments precision voltage reference REF5025-HT was assessed under extreme temperatures. This low noise, 2.5 V output chip is suitable for use in high temperature down-hole drilling applications, but no data existed on its performance at cryogenic temperatures. The device was characterized in terms of output voltage and supply current at different input voltage levels as a function of temperature between +210 C and -190 C. Line and load regulation characteristics were also established at six load levels and at different temperatures. Restart capability at extreme temperatures and the effects of thermal cycling, covering the test temperature range, on its operation and stability were also investigated. Under no load condition, the voltage reference chip exhibited good stability in its output over the temperature range of -50 C to +200 C. Outside that temperature range, output voltage did change as temperature was changed. For example, at the extreme temperatures of +210 C and - 190 C, the output level dropped to 2.43 V and 2.32 V, respectively as compared to the nominal value of 2.5 V. At cryogenic test temperatures of -100 C and -150 C the output voltage dropped by about 20%. The quiescent supply current of the voltage reference varied slightly with temperature but remained close to its specified value. In terms of line regulation, the device exhibited excellent stability between -50 C and +150 C over the entire input voltage range and load levels. At the other test temperatures, however, while line regulation became poor at cryogenic temperatures of -100 C and below, it suffered slight degradation at the extreme high temperature but only at the high load level of 10 mA. The voltage reference also exhibited very good load regulation with temperature down to -100 C, but its output dropped sharply at +210 C only at the heavy load of 10 mA. The semiconductor chip was able restart at the extreme temperatures of -190 C and +210 C, and the limited thermal cycling did not influence its characteristics and had no impact on its packaging as no structural or physical damage was observed.

Patterson, Richard↗

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Variability↗

Impacts of Extreme Events on Human Health

Increased Exposure to Extreme Events Key Finding 1: Health impacts associated with climate-related changes in exposure to extreme events include death, injury, or illness; exacerbation of underlying medical conditions; and adverse effects on mental health[High Confidence]. Climate change will increase exposure risk in some regions of the United States due to projected increases in the frequency and/or intensity of drought, wildfires, and flooding related to extreme precipitation and hurricanes [Medium Confidence].Disruption of Essential Infrastructure Key Finding 2: Many types of extreme events related to climate change cause disruption of infrastructure, including power, water, transportation, and communication systems, that are essential to maintaining access to health care and emergency response services and safeguarding human health [High Confidence].Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding Key Finding 3: Coastal populations with greater vulnerability to health impacts from coastal flooding include persons with disabilities or other access and functional needs, certain populations of color, older adults, pregnant women and children, low-income populations, and some occupational groups [High Confidence].Climate change will increase exposure risk to coastal flooding due to increases in extreme precipitation and in hurricane intensity and rainfall rates, as well as sea level rise and the resulting increases in storm surge.

floods↗

Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development Status

The Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project is a NASA STMD and SMD co-funded effort. The goal is to develop and mission infuse a new ablative Thermal Protection System that can withstand extreme entry. It is targeted to support NASA's high priority missions, as defined in the latest decadal survey, to destinations such as Venus and Saturn in-situ robotic science missions. Entry into these planetary atmospheres results in extreme heating. The entry peak heat-flux and associated pressure are estimated to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher than those experienced by Mars Science Laboratory or Lunar return missions. In the recent New Frontiers community announcement NASA has indicated that it is considering providing an increase to the PI managed mission cost (PIMMC) for investigations utilizing the Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and in addition, NASA is considering limiting the risk assessment to only their accommodation on the spacecraft and the mission environment. The HEEET ablative TPS utilizes 3D weaving technology to manufacture a dual layer material architecture. The 3-D weaving allows for flat panels to be woven. The dual layer consists of a top layer designed to withstand the extreme external environment while the inner or insulating layer by design, is designed to achieve low thermal conductivity, and it keeps the heat from conducting towards the structure underneath. Both arc jet testing combined with material properties have been used to develop thermal response models that allows for comparison of performance with heritage carbon phenolic. A 50% mass efficiency is achieved by the dual layer construct compared to carbon phenolic for a broad range of missions both to Saturn and Venus. The 3-D woven flat preforms are molded to achieve the shape as they are compliant and then resin infusion with curing forms a rigid panels. These panels are then bonded on to the aeroshell structure. Gaps exist between the panels and these gaps have to be filled with seams. The seam material then has to be bonded on to adjacent panels and also to the structure. The heat-shield assembly is shown in Figure 1. One of the significant challenges we have overcome recently is the design, development and testing of the seam. HEEET material development and the seam concept development have utilized some of the unique test capabilities available in the US. The various test facilities utilized in thermal testing along with the entry environment for Saturn and Venus missions are shown in Figure 2. The HEEET project is currently in it's 3rd year of a four-year development. Figure 3 illustrates the key accomplishments to-date and the challenges yet to be overcome before the technology is ready for mission infusion. This proposed presentation will cover both progress that has been made in the HEEET project and also the challenges to be overcome that is highlighted in Figure 3. Objective of the HEEET project is to mature the system in time to support the next New Frontiers opportunity and we believe we are well along the way to mission infuse HEEET.

TPS↗