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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) for Disaster Resilience

"Earth systems have now been observed continuously for more than 50 years, not only from space but also from airplanes, balloons and in-situ sensors. With the addition of commercial remote sensing providers, many more Internet-of-Things sensors and new NASA and international observatories being planned, these incredible amounts of data will soon be augmented by even larger amounts of diverse data and therefore will become more and more difficult to access, integrate, understand and utilize. At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts, in order to predict, manage, and mitigate the effects of extreme science events and disasters, the information produced by all of this data needs to be optimized, organized and analyzed in such a way that it can be utilized by traditional as well as many new non-traditional users. This calls for the development of observing systems that are agile, coordinated and responsive to events of interest, and for information systems to be dynamic, interactive and fast. With these objectives in mind, the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has been developing technologies that will allow for the development of Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) in a distributed, coordinated fashion (i.e., similar to an “Internet-of-Earth-Things”), as well as for the development of novel information systems or Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) that will build a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth systems, will derive forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and will also offer the capability to investigate many hypothetical evolution scenarios under varying impact assumptions. Both NOS and ESDT will be facilitated by the unprecedented advances of Artificial Intelligence technologies, especially Machine Learning (ML), for extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data, for fusing and assimilating diverse data together and for running complex models faster. Together NOS and ESDT will help build the capabilities needed to anticipate, predict and mitigate the effects of future disasters."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

NASA NTRS2005

AC/DC Power Systems with Applications for future Lunar/Mars base and Crew Exploration Vehicle

ABSTRACT The Power Systems branch at JSC faces a number of complex issues as it readies itself for the President's initiative on future space exploration beyond low earth orbit. Some of these preliminary issues - those dealing with electric power generation and distribution on board Mars-bound vehicle and that on Lunar and Martian surface may be summarized as follows: Type of prime mover - Because solar power may not be readily available on parts of the Lunar/Mars surface and also during the long duration flight to Mars, the primary source of power will most likely be nuclear power (Uranium fuel rods) with a secondary source of fuel cell (Hydrogen supply). The electric power generation source - With nuclear power being the main prime mover, the electric power generation source will most likely be an ac generator at a yet to be determined frequency. Thus, a critical issue is whether the generator should generate at constant or variable frequency. This will decide what type of generator to use - whether it is a synchronous machine, an asynchronous induction machine or a switched reluctance machine. The type of power distribution system - the distribution frequency, number of wires (3- wire, 4-wire or higher), and ac/dc hybridization. Building redundancy and fault tolerance in the generation and distribution sub-systems so that the system is safe; provides 100% availability to critical loads; continues to operate even with faulted sub-systems; and requires minimal maintenance. This report descril_es results of a summer faculty fellowship spent in the Power Systems Branch with the specific aim of investigating some of the lessons learned in electric power generation and usage from the terrestrial power systems industry, the aerospace industry as well as NASA's on-going missions so as to recommend novel surface and vehicle-based power systems architectures in support of future space exploration initiatives. A hybrid ac/dc architecture with source side and load side redundancies and including emergency generators on both ac and dc sides is proposed. The generation frequency is 400 Hz mostly because of the technology maturity at this frequency in the aerospace industry. Power will be distributed to several ac load distribution buses through solid state variable speed, constant frequency converters on the ac side. A segmented dc ring bus supplied from ac/dc converters and with the capability of connecting/disconnecting the segments will supply power to multiple de load distribution buses. The system will have the capability of reverse flow from dc to ac side in the case of an extreme emergency on the main ac generation side.

Chowdhury, Badrul H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Runway Configuration Management with Offline Reinforcement Learning

Runway configuration management (RCM) is a challenging task, and it affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and airport surface operations significantly. Each airport, depending on the geometry, capacity, local climate patterns, etc. has multiple configurations for the runway usage for arriving and departing flights. Many factors such as the incoming/outgoing traffic load, wind direction and speed, convective weather, cloud ceiling and other environmental factors might affect the choice of a runway configuration at any point in time. However, other factors such as safety measures and regulations, noise abatement, capacity of each configuration, and preference of the air traffic controllers (ATCs) can also play a significant role in selecting the configuration. A sub-optimal selection of the runway configuration, or delay in making configuration changes might result in significant increase in taxi times for aircraft on the surface of the airport, fuel and energy use of the aircraft, and maintenance costs. It can also lead to safety concerns, such as an aircraft performing one or more go-arounds before being able to land. All these factors make RCM an extremely important and challenging decision-making process for the ATCs. The current state of practice sets the runway configuration by the ATCs based on relevant information available at the time including weather, traffic, noise abatement, safety bounds, etc. This makes the decision-making process subjective based on the accuracy of the available information and the bias in human decision making. Unfortunately, this approach yields poor results (e.g., significant delays) if the predicted outcomes are uncertain and their relative impact is not well understood. This is especially evident when the uncertainty increases the size of possible predicted outcomes (combinatorial explosion in possible scenarios) that cannot be handled by human reasoning. On the other hand, an automated approach based on machine intelligence can make use of historical data and search through all (or significant amount of) possible scenarios under uncertainty and make well-informed decisions.

Milad Memarzadeh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global 3D Data Visualization and Analysis Platform with Advanced Machine Learning Capabilities in Support of Lunar Exploration

Introduction: The science goals for NASA’s Artemis program include: a) Understanding the character and origin of lunar polar volatiles, b) Conducting experimental science in the lunar environment and c) Investigating and mitigating exploration risks. The permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) on the Lunar south pole are expected to host large quantities of water-ice and volatiles that are important for sustainable Lunar exploration. There are several missions such as onboard Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO: Korean name Danuri) with onboard ShadowCam camera, Astrobotic Peregrine Mission One [4], and other efforts underway to obtain high resolution topographic, minerals, volatiles and other information on the moon. We envision a need in immediate future for platforms to integrate these data sets, provide rendering and visualization capabilities in the context of a 3D Lunar globe for easier information access and analysis. NASA's Celestial Mapping System (CMS) is developed to address the need for 3D tools for planetary science investigations, mission planning, in-situ operations, in a 3D-first design constructed around a unified view of a planetary globe. At present CMS provides many critical functionalities that include: 1) equipment planning and optimized placement on Lunar surface 2) line-of-sight (LOS) analysis 3) powerful measurement tools based on 3D terrain with realistic 3D models to represent rovers, astronauts and equipment 4) visualization of derived mapping products (e.g. resource maps), and 5) a data engine for hosting new observations that are not available in other contemporary lunar data tools. Planetary Data Ingestion: CMS can consume and analyze data from locally hosted and external third party sources. It is compatible with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) data and file standards and currently integrates datasets from the Astrogeology Science Center of USGS. This includes global and local data acquired from NASA (LRO, Clementine, Lunar Orbiter) and JAXA (SELENE/Kaguya), with capability of integrating more datasets. In addition, users can specify other WMS-hosted data endpoints, which CMS can then query and stream data from automatically. To set-up an automated process for ingestion and accurate rendering, visualization and analysis of external 3rd party planetary datasets within CMS, we initiated the process of ingesting unique dataset of super-enhanced images of the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) at the lunar poles which were produced by the Hyper-effective nOise Removal U-net Software (HORUS) tool. This tool was developed to enhance the extremely low-light images of the interior of PSRs and provide the ability to see within these regions at and discern surface features (i.e. boulders and craters) down to 3 meters in size. We focused on the Nobile region on the Lunar south pole, selected site for VIPER mission and stitched several images to create a high-resolution map within one of the PSR of Nobile crater. Figure 1 shows the dark PSR zone form the original NAC layer of LRO as the base layer (left image) and the illuminated areas within that crater (center) which was created by ingesting and merging several of HORUS generated images. At present we employ a semi-automated process to ensure spatial accuracy and merger of several overlapping zones. However, we are in the process of completely automating this process by employing AI based techniques that would rank, sort, and stack the images based on their information density. The georectification of the images would employ selected features. Analysis on Ingested Planetary Datasets: Once an external planetary data-set is successfully ingested, georectified and merged seamlessly as a data-layer; CMS’ numerous analysis tools can be used on this data. A Line of Sight (LOS) tool has been developed for CMS which analyzes terrain profiles and obstructions to determine visibility for remote observers. Figure 1 (right image) shows the viewshed analysis on the same PSR in the Nobile region. The yellow pin shows the observer location outside the PSR. The yellow area shows the visible part of PSR. The obstructed area with no visibility for the observer is shown in red. The Measurements tool allows the user to take area and distance measurements of features on the terrain using various shapes. Measurement type can be specified in a number of ways: Line, Path, Polygon, Circle, Ellipse, Square, Rectangle or Freehand. Once the shape is specified, elevation information can then be extracted along each of these shapes. Figure 2 (left) shows the measurements performed on a crater n illuminated PSR in Nobile region. The equipment placement tool allows the user to place a 3D equipment model at a desired location and analyze its coverage area. The equipment placement tool is coupled with LOS to determine the coverage. Figure 2 (right) shows an equipment placed on the Lunar terrain and it’s coverage area. The red rays are blocked sight lines and the green rays are non-obstructed sight lines with the cyan lines showing the point of intersection with the terrain. More details are provided in the video demonstrations in Reference 5. Overcoming Polar Distortions: 3D geospatial applications exhibit significant distortions in polar imagery due to several reasons: 1) distortions in the source imagery, 2) incompatible tessellation algorithms at the poles, and 3) map projections. We are leveraging new tessellation algorithms and reprojecting data using projections that are better suited for Lunar poles. The goal is to seamlessly switch to polar projections while maintaining 3D view and navigation.

Maps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global 3D Data Visualization and Analysis Platform With Advanced Machine Learning Capabilities in Support of Lunar Exploration

Introduction: The science goals for NASA’s Artemis program include: a) Understanding the character and origin of lunar polar volatiles, b) Conducting experimental science in the lunar environment and c) Investigating and mitigating exploration risks [1]. The permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) on the Lunar south pole are expected to host large quantities of water-ice and volatiles that are important for sustainable Lunar exploration [2]. There are several missions such as onboard Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO: Korean name Danuri) with onboard ShadowCam camera [3], Astrobotic Peregrine Mission One [4], and other efforts underway to obtain high resolution topographic, minerals, volatiles and other information on the moon. We envision a need in immediate future for platforms to integrate these data sets, provide rendering and visualization capabilities in the context of a 3D Lunar globe for easier information access and analysis. NASA's Celestial Mapping System (CMS) [5] is developed to address the need for 3D tools for planetary science investigations, mission planning, in-situ operations, in a 3D-first design constructed around a unified view of a planetary globe. At present CMS provides many critical functionalities that include: 1) equipment planning and optimized placement on Lunar surface 2) line-of-sight (LOS) analysis 3) powerful measurement tools based on 3D terrain with realistic 3D models to represent rovers, astronauts and equipment 4) visualization of derived mapping products (e.g. resource maps), and 5) a data engine for hosting new observations that are not available in other contemporary lunar data tools [5, 7]. Planetary Data Ingestion: CMS can consume and analyze data from locally hosted and external third party sources. It is compatible with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) data and file standards and currently integrates datasets from the Astrogeology Science Center of USGS. This includes global and local data acquired from NASA (LRO, Clementine, Lunar Orbiter) and JAXA (SELENE/Kaguya), with capability of integrating more datasets. In addition, users can specify other WMS-hosted data endpoints, which CMS can then query and stream data from automatically. To set-up an automated process for ingestion and accurate rendering, visualization and analysis of external 3rd party planetary datasets within CMS, we initiated the process of ingesting unique dataset of super-enhanced images of the permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) at the lunar poles which were produced by the Hyper-effective nOise Removal U-net Software (HORUS) tool [8]. This tool was developed to enhance the extremely low-light images of the interior of PSRs and provide the ability to see within these regions at and discern surface features (i.e. boulders and craters) down to 3 meters in size. We focused on the Nobile region on the Lunar south pole, selected site for VIPER mission and stitched several images to create a high-resolution map within one of the PSR of Nobile crater. Figure 1 shows the dark PSR zone form the original NAC layer of LRO as the base layer (left image) and the illuminated areas within that crater (center) which was created by ingesting and merging several of HORUS generated images. At present we employ a semi-automated process to ensure spatial accuracy and merger of several overlapping zones. However, we are in the process of completely automating this process by employing AI based techniques that would rank, sort, and stack the images based on their information density. The georectification of the images would employ selected features. Analysis on Ingested Planetary Datasets: Once an external planetary data-set is successfully ingested, georectified and merged seamlessly as a data-layer; CMS’ numerous analysis tools can be used on this data. A Line of Sight (LOS) tool has been developed for CMS which analyzes terrain profiles and obstructions to determine visibility for remote observers [5,6]. Figure 1 (right image) shows the viewshed analysis on the same PSR in the Nobile region. The yellow pin shows the observer location outside the PSR. The yellow area shows the visible part of PSR. The obstructed area with no visibility for the observer is shown in red. The Measurements tool allows the user to take area and distance measurements of features on the terrain using various shapes. Measurement type can be specified in a number of ways: Line, Path, Polygon, Circle, Ellipse, Square, Rectangle or Freehand. Once the shape is specified, elevation information can then be extracted along each of these shapes. Figure 2 (left) shows the measurements performed on a crater n illuminated PSR in Nobile region. The equipment placement tool allows the user to place a 3D equipment model at a desired location and analyze its coverage area. The equipment placement tool is coupled with LOS to determine the coverage. Figure 2 (right) shows an equipment placed on the Lunar terrain and it’s coverage area. The red rays are blocked sight lines and the green rays are non-obstructed sight lines with the cyan lines showing the point of intersection with the terrain. More details are provided in the video demonstrations in Reference 5. Overcoming Polar Distortions: 3D geospatial applications exhibit significant distortions in polar imagery due to several reasons: 1) distortions in the source imagery, 2) incompatible tessellation algorithms at the poles, and 3) map projections. We are leveraging new tessellation algorithms and reprojecting data using projections that are better suited for Lunar poles. The goal is to seamlessly switch to polar projections while maintaining 3D view and navigation.

Maps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Science-Focused Artificial Intelligence (AI) Responding in Real-Time to New Information: Capability Demonstration for Ocean World Missions

Introduction: Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been considered a potential mechanism to explore increasingly challenging environments, including those with extreme temperatures and pressures, limited communication capabilities, or those with demanding terrain. We posit that missions in extreme environments could deploy an onboard AI focused on science observations and goals in order to augment a traditional concept(s) of operations (ConOps). An onboard AI capability could perform functions such as data analysis in order to make high-level decisions, including prioritized data transmission for analysis by ground-based teams or autonomously-guided follow-on analyses that maximize science return. Such a capability would empower missions to respond to scientific data of interest in real-time; a mission could make observations and perform a preliminary analysis to alert ground-based scientists to an observation of interest, enabling an informed, rapid response from Earth-based teams. Enceladus Case Study for Onboard AI: We are developing an onboard AI capability for real-time telemetry response that formulates and carries-out informed decisions in service to established mission goals, enabling increased science return of a mission. We focus our AI development for use on a constellation of SmallSats orbiting Enceladus. Our Enceladus case study tests autonomous decision-making capabilities in scenarios with complex orbital dynamics, plume ejecta, extreme cold environments, power restrictions, and a requirement to maximize science return for a potential positive detection of life, while critically evaluating the potential for false positives. Telemetry includes simulated scientific data, spacecraft onboard operational data (e.g., position, velocity, and rotation), and engineering hardware performance data. Enceladus SmallSat Constellation. Our constellation includes eight SmallSat spacecraft in an 8:35 resonant orbit-based formation, leveraging Saturn’s gravitational forces to maintain stable orbits with global coverage around Enceladus. To our knowledge, we simulate the first stable configuration of multiple spacecraft in closed orbits around Enceladus, using a full ephemeris force model (Russell and Lara, 2009). Each spacecraft’s orbit will precess, causing an eastward ground track shift (from an orbiter’s perspective) of each spacecraft for each orbit. However, all spacecraft return to their original positions relative to Enceladus after eight Enceladus revolutions around Saturn. We model communication pathways between SmallSats to understand how information would need to be transmitted across the constellation to enable AI-driven decision-making and resource allocation across the fleet. Capability Demonstration. Our simulated capability demonstration inputs position, velocity, and rotation telemetry from our Enceladus-focused constellation simulations, and mass spectrometry data collected from abiotic and biotic laboratory-analog ocean world experiments (Theiling et al., 2018; Theiling, 2021; Da Poian et al., 2023). Data from these experiments are used to simulate MS measurements and different scenarios of science observations for onboard analysis performed on each of the eight spacecraft. For these demonstrations, we integrate 24 machine learning (ML) algorithms into an onboard intelligence as a ‘knowledge base’, including algorithms evaluating data quality and those predicting (with % confidence) gas composition, ocean aqueous chemistry, and whether the sample was influenced by microbial life. The onboard AI capability is designed to use the knowledge base to come to a consensus-based decision in the interpretation of the observed data in order to request additional action outside of a pre-defined ConOps. Requested actions could include e.g., prioritized downlink to Earth (for analysis by ground-based teams) or follow-on analyses performed across the constellation. The spacecraft’s intelligent onboard planner must then determine whether sufficient resources (e.g., time, power, etc.) are available and weigh the request with mission priorities. In our simulation, the constellation is able to identify potential biosignatures using onboard ML algorithms, evaluate the confidence of that prediction, and perform follow-on analyses across the fleet to confirm the detection, in order to best prepare a transmission of these data to Earth-based teams.

astrobiology↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Census of Severe Weather as Observed From Aqua: Visible/IR and Passive-Microwave Perspectives of Severe Convection

Severe weather phenomena represent the extreme upper end of the spectrum of convection and precipitation and tend to be highly localized and relatively rare compared to the rest of the distribution, but they can cause damage and loss disproportionate to their scale and frequency. Fortunately, severe convection exhibits distinct signatures in spaceborne remote-sensing datasets (e.g. overshooting cloud tops in visible/IR, or brightness temperature depressions in passive-microwave imagery). Leveraging these signatures individually has become a long-established practice to detect, analyze and establish climatologies of severe thunderstorms, especially in instances where traditional ground-based data may be unavailable. Spaceborne visible/IR and passive-microwave approaches are not without their pitfalls, however: passive-microwave channels have large footprints and exhibit non-uniform beam filling. Visible/IR instruments have fine horizontal resolution but are limited by their insensitivity to processes occurring below cloud top. To address this, we investigate the nearly simultaneous and colocated MODIS (visible/IR) and AMSR-E (passive-microwave) onboard the Aqua satellite to leverage both datasets together and assess the extent to which these datasets can be combined to improve severe thunderstorm detection. We pair AMSR-E and MODIS signatures of severe convection with ground-based weather radar, severe weather reports, and environmental parameters defined by the MERRA-2 reanalysis in six different geographical regimes throughout the Aqua domain. We present a census of potentially severe convective storms and their environments as seen by multiple instruments simultaneously, investigating how MODIS and AMSR-E signatures may be used together to diagnose storm properties and processes, and how the interrelationships between the signatures varies seasonally and geographically. Using statistical machine learning analysis, we aim to quantify the optimal MODIS and AMSR-E parameter sets for discriminating severe from non-severe storm cells and assess what improvement (if any) in detection results from combining the IR, visible, and microwave datasets.

Sarah Bang↗

NASA NTRS1996

Development of Collaborative Research Initiatives to Advance the Aerospace Sciences-via the Communications, Electronics, Information Systems Focus Group

The primary goal of the Adaptive Vision Laboratory Research project was to develop advanced computer vision systems for automatic target recognition. The approach used in this effort combined several machine learning paradigms including evolutionary learning algorithms, neural networks, and adaptive clustering techniques to develop the E-MOR.PH system. This system is capable of generating pattern recognition systems to solve a wide variety of complex recognition tasks. A series of simulation experiments were conducted using E-MORPH to solve problems in OCR, military target recognition, industrial inspection, and medical image analysis. The bulk of the funds provided through this grant were used to purchase computer hardware and software to support these computationally intensive simulations. The payoff from this effort is the reduced need for human involvement in the design and implementation of recognition systems. We have shown that the techniques used in E-MORPH are generic and readily transition to other problem domains. Specifically, E-MORPH is multi-phase evolutionary leaming system that evolves cooperative sets of features detectors and combines their response using an adaptive classifier to form a complete pattern recognition system. The system can operate on binary or grayscale images. In our most recent experiments, we used multi-resolution images that are formed by applying a Gabor wavelet transform to a set of grayscale input images. To begin the leaming process, candidate chips are extracted from the multi-resolution images to form a training set and a test set. A population of detector sets is randomly initialized to start the evolutionary process. Using a combination of evolutionary programming and genetic algorithms, the feature detectors are enhanced to solve a recognition problem. The design of E-MORPH and recognition results for a complex problem in medical image analysis are described at the end of this report. The specific task involves the identification of vertebrae in x-ray images of human spinal columns. This problem is extremely challenging because the individual vertebra exhibit variation in shape, scale, orientation, and contrast. E-MORPH generated several accurate recognition systems to solve this task. This dual use of this ATR technology clearly demonstrates the flexibility and power of our approach.

Knasel, T. Michael↗

NASA NTRS2020

Genetic Algorithm for Optimization of Neural Networks for Bayesian Inference of Model Uncertainty

The objective of this work was to develop a genetic optimization algorithm that can design a neural network capable of producing uncertainty estimates along with predictions. This algorithm is necessary because the inclusion of uncertainty modeling in a neural network greatly complicates the network’s design space, making the development of a converging model extremely difficult and time consuming. The genetic algorithm presented in this work uses a number of value ranges for various configurable neural network parameters to create a randomly generated population of network architectures. The initially generated population is then evolved over the course of several generations, with the best performing models breeding to produce novel network configurations. Mutations are randomly applied to the network designs to facilitate the development of adaptations beneficial to the task being performed. An experiment was conducted to validate the proposed algorithm, in which the genetic optimizer was tasked with producing a neural network capable of predicting the sound pressure level (SPL) resulting from jet-surface interaction (JSI) noise. The data used for this task was generated at the NASA Glenn Research Center in the Aero-Acoustic Propulsion Laboratory. Starting with an initial population size of 35 randomly generated networks, and evolved over the course of 10 generations, the genetic algorithm produced a design able to predict SPL as a result of JSI noise within 0.272 dB, on average.

Genetic algorithm↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel Machine Learning Method for Surface PM2.5 Estimations from Geostationary Satellites

Particulate matter (PM) with a diameter of less or equal to 2.5 μm, known as PM , affects human health as it penetrates the respiratory system. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures the atmospheric concentration of PM using air quality monitors stationed throughout the Continental United States (CONUS). Such measurements are points on a spatial domain and therefore, might not be representative of the air quality at nearby areas considering that the composition of the atmosphere is highly variable from place to place. Satellite based AOD permits a spatially uniform means of estimating PM and new geostationary satellites provide high temporal and spatial resolution estimation of AOD. However, the concentration of PM is non-linearly dependent on other atmospheric parameters that include relative humidity, temperature, and height of the planetary boundary layer. This information may be estimated at similar spatial and temporal resolutions as AOD from numerical modeling such as from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model which resolves near real-time atmospheric conditions over the CONUS. The estimation of PM concentration is a multi-parametric problem that considers the effect of temporal dependencies among the different parameters. Deep learning approaches are appropriate for such complex estimation problems as they intrinsically capture relations among multiple non-linear parameters. This study compares deep-learning methods to traditional regression analysis to demonstrate the capabilities of these methods in predicting PM2.5 concentrations. Additionally, a novel ensemble learning approach is employed to identify scientific processes that could further improve the estimation of PM concentration. Utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which are suitable for multivariate time series estimation problems as they are capable of learning long-term dependencies, individual models are created for each EPA station and trained on the aforementioned dataset collocated over each station. Individual station models are merged if the model's performance is improved by reducing the root mean squared error (RMSE) metric. This ensemble training method ultimately reduces the RMSE value. Evaluation of these results provide insights into physical processes and related observable parameters that may contribute to PM concentrations. Identified parameters evaluated to be statistically different between the merged and unmerged models are expected to improve overall performance. These new parameters are then utilized for reevaluation of the deep learning methods with an extreme gradient boosting model with an RMSE of 5.5 providing the best results.

George Priftis↗

NASA NTRS2023

Large-Scale Groundwater Monitoring in Brazil Assisted With Satellite-Based Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Here, we develop and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to monitor major Brazilian aquifers. The approach combines Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based hydrogeological measurements from Brazil’s Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network at hundreds of wells distributed in twelve aquifers across the country. We tested model ensembles based on three AI approaches: Extreme Gradient Boost, Light Gradient Boosting Model and CatBoost, followed by a Linear Regression (LR) step. The approach is further boosted with wavelet and seasonal decomposition processes applied to GRACE data. To determine the AI-based model’s sensitivity to data availability, we propose four experiments combining hydrogeological measurements from different aquifers. Groundwater storage estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used as benchmark. A sensitivity analysis shows that the LR-based model ensemble is the best suited and to reproduce groundwater storage change in all studied Brazilian aquifers. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms GLDAS in all experiments, with an RMSE value of 2.68cm for the experiment that covers all monitored wells in Brazil. GLDAS resulted in RMSE=6.76cm. Using our AI model outputs, we quantified the groundwater storage change of two major aquifers, Urucuia and Bauru-Caiuá, over the past two decades: -31km 3 and -6km 3 , respectively. Water loss is driven by a prolonged drought across most of the country and intensification of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This study demonstrates that combining satellite data and AI can be a cost-effective alternative to monitor poorly equipped aquifers at the continental scale, with possible global replicability.

GRACE↗

NASA NTRS2024

Artificial Intelligence Medical Support for Long-Duration Space Missions

We envision an artificial intelligence (AI) based system that will provide support and recommendations to the crew medical officer (CMO) and ground flight surgeon during long-duration space missions. Such a system would be pretrained on the knowledgebase of clinical knowledge on Earth, minimizing the amount of Earth data that needs to be transferred into space. Then during deployment, the system would be constantly refined through active learning from diverse streams of data from sensors in the spacecraft, data collected daily from individual astronauts, and human-in-the-loop feedback from the crew. The model could be interrogated for predictions and recommendations on personalized crew health based on the overall status of the spacecraft, medicinal stores, and status of other crew members. Adaptation techniques would be used to incorporate spaceflight data that have very different distributions from the training data due to the extreme environment. Edge computing and the most advanced neuromorphic processing would enable computation in scenarios with low power and bandwidth, while dimensionality reduction would be employed to ensure that the input data streams from spaceflight are as small as possible. In order to realize this long-term vision, several hardware and software aspects need to be developed and assembled. First, models pretrained on Earth biomedical data would need to be evaluated for predictive accuracy, and the best one selected. That model would need to be adapted to learn from diverse, sparse, and inconsistently measured data streams, as well as human-in-the-loop feedback. A data integration, standardization, and dimensionality reduction methodology would need to be developed to handle all data types and feed them into the model. Once the software and data infrastructure is developed, it would need to be integrated with small footprint compute processors and tested in high-radiation, high-vibration, unregulated temperature situations. As a short-term goal, we recommend to focus on the development of the data and model software structure. Several large language models (LLM) already exist that have been trained on Earth biomedical and clinical knowledgebases, including BioMedLLM, Med-PaLM, SPOKE LLM, and Foresight. These models need to be evaluated for accuracy and the best one chosen for a proof-of-concept structure, while maintaining awareness of the accelerating AI field and incorporating any newly improved model architectures as needed. Then, we recommend to develop a database of synthetic data types to mimic the diverse data streams that are expected in a long-duration space mission. This should include environmental and microbial data from the spacecraft, non-invasive data from wearables and point-of-care devices employed by astronauts, and more invasive molecular and physiological monitoring of clinical and biomarker data from astronauts. The data standardization methodology should be developed, and these data streams used to refine the clinical LLM. Several scenarios should be developed that could plausibly come up in a long-duration space mission, and changes or aberrations introduced to the data at specific times to mimic these scenarios. Then, question and answer tasks should be designed to interrogate the model for predictions and recommendations, with acceptable answers already identified.

Artificial Intelligence↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open-source Numerical Modeling of Solidification Cracking Susceptibility: Application to Refractory Alloy Systems

Introduction. Alloys such as aluminum, nickel-base, and austenitic stainless steels are susceptible to solidification cracking during welding and 3D printing. Compositional optimization is one method used to effectively mitigate solidification cracking of those alloy systems. With the surge in hypersonic and in-space propulsion activities, refractory metals (Nb, Mo, Ta, W, and Re) and their alloy derivatives are increasing in importance due to their extreme high melting point and retention of high-temperature strength; however, their chemistry was most typically optimized to promote ductility during mechanical operations such as drawing and forming. Welding of such alloys has been a challenge due to a number of issues including solidification cracking, atmospheric contamination (O, C, and N), as well as a shift in ductile-to-brittle transition to higher temperature following grain growth induced by welding. Compositional optimization of refractory alloys for solidification cracking resistance in particular is desirable as their usage increases with the advent of advanced manufacturing methods such as 3D printing. This work evaluates the effect of compositional variation in refractory metal systems on the solidification cracking susceptibility with the goals of optimizing existing alloys and joining process techniques, and formulating new alloys with increased solidification cracking resistance. Experimental Procedures. A python code was developed in a Jupyter notebook environment (Michael and Sowards, 2023) to facilitate the calculation of crack susceptibility index proposed by Kou (2015). Composition is entered as a single point, or as a 1-D or 2-D array. The notebook calls pycalphad (Otis and Liu, 2017 and Bocklund et al, 2020) to calculate the evolution of fraction solid as a function of temperature (under either Scheil or equilibrium assumptions) and then evaluates steepness of the fraction solid curve near the terminal stage of solidification to predict solidification cracking resistance. Open source thermodynamic databases available at online repositories are used (van de Walle). The process is setup in an automated fashion to generate plots that show variation in solidification cracking susceptibility according to composition on 1-D line plots or 2-D contour plots. The Jupyter notebook and crack susceptibility algorithm was also integrated with a widely used commercial CALPHAD code for validation and alloy exploration. Results and Discussion. The crack susceptibility model was first validated against a series of refractory alloy compositions evaluated in past work which utilized a specialized Varestraint test built inside a vacuum chamber environment (Lessman and Gold, 1971). The alloys tested in the Varestraint apparatus included T-111 (Ta-8W-2Hf), ASTAR-811C (Ta-8W-1Re-0.7Hf-0.025C), FS-85 (Nb-27Ta-10W-1Zr), T-222 (Ta-9.6W-2.4Hf-0.01C), Ta-10W, B-66 (Nb-5Mo-5V-1Zr), and SCb-291 (Nb-10W-10Ta). The initial test of the model showed a strong correlation with empirical Varestraint data, i.e., a Spearman rank correlation between model predictions and hot cracking measurements was observed to be greater than 0.8. Following the validation, a set of refractory metal binary mixtures was investigated to evaluate sensitivity of Nb, Mo, W, and Ta to C, N, and O content. A series of plots were produced that suggest ppmw ranges of C, N, and O where solidification cracking increases significantly and reaches a maximum. Also comparative ranking of each primary refractory metal to each interstitial was produced. For example C produces greater cracking response in Mo whereas O produces greater cracking response in Ta and Nb. Such compositional values have utility in setting limits on pickup of these interstitial elements during welding and printing rather than using a one-size-fits-all approach. Furthermore, the results have use in determining additive powder recycling requirements, which is especially pertinent for refractory metal powders due to their high cost compared to conventional alloys. Another application created thousands of hypothetical alloys within the nominal specified composition range of two widely used refractory alloys C103 (Nb-10Hf-1Ti) and TZM (Mo-0.5Ti-0.1Zr). The cracking index was calculated for the alloys and results were fed into machine learning regression techniques including Multiple Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, and Lasso Regression to determine relative potency each alloying element had on computed solidification cracking index. A series of linear equations were produced that relate composition of C103 and TZM to solidification cracking index. The crack susceptibility of C103 for example is described by an equation of the form: cracking index ~ O + 0.667*C + 0.635*N + 0.00037*Ta – 0.0008*Hf (in wt.%) From that equation, it is clear that O has strong propensity to induce solidification cracking. Interestingly, Hf is shown to reduce calculated cracking response. Finally, realizing the potential of this method to discover new refractory alloy formulations across the period table that have low solidification cracking sensitivity, the code was applied to new untested alloy systems including W-Zr-C, W-Ta-C, and others. Conclusions. In summary, an open source numerical method has been developed using Python code to calculate Kou’s crack susceptibility index. The method was applied to refractory metals which are inherently difficult to study from a weldability testing standpoint since inert shielding gas is not sufficient and welding is typically done in vacuum, especially in light of findings presented here where oxygen has profound influence on solidification cracking. This work revealed the effect of compositional variations on a series of refractory metals and showed the framework defined here will be useful in 1) the development of new alloys that have improved weldability and 3D printability, 2) placing compositional limits on existing alloys, and 3) ensuring adequate controls of manufacturing processes such as 3D printing where powder reuse is critical. Keywords. pycalphad; Python; refractory metals; solidification cracking. References. B. Bocklund et. al. (2020) http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3630657. S. Kou. (2015) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actamat.2015.01.034. G.G. Lessmann and R.E. Gold. Welding Journal, issue 1, pp. 1-s – 8-s (1971). F.N. Michael and J.W. Sowards. NASA/TM-20230002218 (2023). R. Otis and Z.-K. Liu. (2017) http://doi.org/10.5334/jors.140. A. Van de Wallle et. al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.calphad.2018.04.003.

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