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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Cool rooms for indoor heat resilience: Evaluating affordable cooling strategies in heat-stressed California homes

Extreme heat conditions pose significant indoor survivability challenges for resource-constrained communities, which often lack access to cooling, have poorly insulated homes, and face compounding socioeconomic vulnerabilities. Moreover, concurrent power outages worsen health risks and heat-related illnesses. It is therefore crucial to develop innovative and affordable cooling approaches to protect vulnerable populations. This study assesses the efficacy of “cool rooms”– a designated space within a home equipped with passive and low-power active cooling measures to maintain safe indoor temperatures during extreme heat events and power disruptions. Using a physics-based building energy modeling approach, we evaluate the efficacy of various retrofit packages in maintaining thermal safety within the cool room under recent extreme heat conditions. The results indicate that passive measures can reduce 64% of hours with unmet standard effective temperatures, while the combination of passive and low-power active measures with built-in batteries further cuts this to 86%. Nevertheless, these strategies remain insufficient to maintain indoor thermal safety during extended outages. In contrast, integrating a solar-powered mini-split heat pump, whose technical potential was evaluated in this study, reduces indoor air temperatures below the 28 °C overheating threshold and significantly improves indoor habitability. The localized cool room strategy also offers potential for grid resilience by reducing peak electricity demand by up to 70% compared to whole house cooling during heat waves. The findings can inform the development of actionable heat mitigation plans and retrofit policies for residential communities with relatively low adoption of air conditioning such as warm marine climates.

Cool room↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Conversion and Electron Acceleration and Transport in 3D Simulations of Solar Flares

Recent observations and simulations indicate that solar flares undergo extremely complex 3D evolution, making 3D particle transport models essential for understanding electron acceleration and interpreting flare emissions. In this study, we investigate this problem by solving Parker’s transport equation with 3D MHD simulations of solar flares. By examining energy conversion in the 3D system, we evaluate the roles of different acceleration mechanisms, including reconnection current sheet (CS), termination shock (TS), and supra-arcade downflows (SADs). We find that large-amplitude turbulent fluctuations are generated and sustained in the 3D system. The model results demonstrate that a significant number of electrons are accelerated to hundreds of keV and even a few MeV, forming power-law energy spectra. These energetic particles are widely distributed, with concentrations at the TS and in the flare looptop region, consistent with results derived from recent hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave (MW) observations. By selectively turning particle acceleration on or off in specific regions, we find that the CS and SADs effectively accelerate electrons to several hundred keV, while the TS enables further acceleration to MeV. However, no single mechanism can independently account for the significant number of energetic electrons observed. Instead, the mechanisms work synergistically to produce a large population of accelerated electrons. Our model provides spatially and temporally resolved electron distributions in the whole flare region and at the flare footpoints, enabling synthetic HXR and MW emission modeling for comparison with observations. These results offer important insights into electron acceleration and transport in 3D solar flare regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on precipitation extremes in Indonesia

The relationship between boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) and precipitation extremes over Indonesia is investigated using observational datasets from 30 years (1987–2016) of rain gauge measurements and the gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources from 1998 to 2015. The results indicate that the frequency of daily extreme precipitation events in Indonesia (defined as total precipitation above the 95th percentile) during extended boreal summer (May–August) is significantly modulated by BSISO, especially over the western and northern regions. Under the influences of BSISO1, the probability of the precipitation extremes over Sumatra and Borneo increases by 20–120% (relative to the seasonal probability) during phases 1–3 and approximately 50–80% over the eastern part of Borneo and Sulawesi during phase 4. Under BSISO2, the probability of the extremes increases up to 40% over Sumatra during phases 1 and 2 and up to 140% over Borneo and Sulawesi during phases 2 and 3. The increase in the probability of extreme summer precipitation is associated with enhanced large–scale moisture flux convergence and upward moisture transport induced by the active phases of BSISO. Finally, these results provide potential information for medium–to extended–range predictions of summer precipitation extremes in Indonesia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Services for Agriculture: Tools for Informing Decisions Relating to Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Wine Industry

Australia’s changing climate is already impacting the agriculture sector and will continue to do so in the future. To help respond to these impacts, the Climate Services for Agriculture (CSA) platform presents readily accessible climate data, including future climate projections, relevant to specific agricultural commodities. This wine industry example aims to demonstrate the functionality and utility of the CSA for national use across a broad range of commodities. Methods and Results. The platform includes commodity-relevant climate indices designed in consultation with experts to ensure that they are as salient to producers as possible; the wine-grape specific indices include measures of growing season temperature, rainfall, extreme heat, and frost. Here, we describe the research behind the wine-grape specific indices and present sample outputs from the CSA platform for a site within a selected winegrowing region. We note the CSA platform has been developed through an extensive and continuing user engagement initiative, ensuring it meets the needs of the agriculture community as they grapple with how to make decisions based on longer term climate projections. Conclusions. Provision of past, seasonal outlook, and future climate information for Australia and for a range of important agricultural commodities can help improve on-farm planning and decision-making to respond to climate risks. The wine industry provides a leading example of how to use these data for decision-making, noting ongoing adjustments will be needed. Significance of the Study. The CSA platform brings together historical climate data, seasonal climate outlooks, and future climate projections to assist agricultural producers to better manage climate variability and climate change. It aims to nationalise this information for all major agricultural commodities in Australia. We use wine production as a demonstration case here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hip Abductor Strength Asymmetry: Relationship to Upper Extremity Injury in Professional Baseball Players

Background: Hip strength is an important factor for control of the lumbo-pelvic-hip complex. Deficits in hip strength may affect throwing performance and contribute to upper extremity injuries. Hypothesis: Deficits in hip abduction isometric strength would be greater in those who sustained an upper extremity injury and hip strength would predict injury incidence. Study Design: Prospective cohort study. Level of Evidence: Level 3. Methods: Minor League baseball players (n = 188, age = 21.5 ± 2.2 years; n = 98 pitchers; n = 90 position players) volunteered. Hip abduction isometric strength was assessed bilaterally with a handheld dynamometer in side-lying position, expressed as torque using leg length (N·m). Hip abduction strength asymmetry was represented by [(trail leg/lead leg) × 100]. Overuse or nontraumatic throwing arm injuries were prospectively tracked. Poisson regression models were used to estimate relative risk ratios associated with hip asymmetry; confounders, including history of prior overuse injury in the past year, were included. Results: Hip abduction asymmetry ranged from 0.05% to 57.5%. During the first 2 months of the season, 18 players (n = 12 pitchers) sustained an upper extremity injury. In pitchers, for every 5% increase in hip abduction asymmetry, there was a 1.24 increased risk of sustaining a shoulder or elbow injury. No relationship between hip abduction strength and injury was observed for position players. Conclusion: Hip abduction asymmetry in pitchers was related to subsequent upper extremity injuries. The observed risk ratio indicates that hip abduction asymmetry may contribute a significant but small increased risk of injury. Clinical Relevance: Hip abduction muscle deficits may affect pitching mechanics and increase arm stress. Addressing hip asymmetry deficits that exceed 5% may be beneficial in reducing upper extremity injury rates in pitchers.

Sport Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulated effects of sample size and grain neighborhood on the modeling of extreme value fatigue response

Assessing the size of representative volume elements (RVEs) for fatigue-related applications is challenging. A RVE relevant to random microstructure requires a volume of material that is sufficiently large to capture the grain/phase heterogeneity that captures all statistical moments of the distribution of the driving force for fatigue crack formation at “hot spot” grains. Consequently, the large size of a microstructure RVE required to study fatigue phenomena is largely computationally intractable and difficult to explore. A more realistic objective in this work is to systematically study, as a function of the size of a statistical sample of microstructure, trends towards convergence of the simulated distribution of driving force for fatigue crack formation. Our present work accordingly leverages the recently developed open-source PRISMS-Fatigue framework to examine the trends in convergence of extreme value distributions (EVD) of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs) in progressively larger polycrystalline microstructure realizations of FCC Al alloy 7075-T6 using crystal plasticity finite element method simulations. The results are compared to the traditional method in which ensembles of statistical volume elements (SVEs) are simulated to build up statistics intended to approximate those associated with a larger volume of material. The convergence of EVDs with increase of size of a SVE of microstructure is closely related to the extent of grain nearest neighbor (NN) interactions. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the local micromechanical response at hot spot grains is quantitatively investigated by systematically varying the orientations of NN grains. Results indicate that SVEs with cubic crystallographic texture tend towards convergence of the EVD of FIPs with tens of thousands of grains while the random and rolled textures require larger volumes. Simple relationships based on microstructure parameters (e.g., Schmid Factor, grain size, NN misorientation) do not completely correlate to fatigue hot spot grains. Finally, the sensitivity of the extreme value fatigue response at hot spot grains extends to the 3rd NN when a single neighborhood grain orientation is altered.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models for generative alloy design

Inverse material design is an extremely challenging optimization task made difficult by, in part, the highly nonlinear relationship linking performance with composition. Quantitative approaches have improved significantly owing to advances in high throughput experimentation and computational thermodynamics. However, existing physics-based tools are mostly forward models; input a chemistry and obtain a prediction. More recently the materials community has leveraged advances in the machine learning community to establish novel inverse design frameworks. Very recently denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been shown to be extremely powerful generators producing synthetic data of various modalities e.g. images, text, audio, tables, etc.. In this work a novel framework for alloy design and optimization is proposed leveraging these class of models. Five key generative tasks are demonstrated (1) unconditional generation (2) composition conditioned generation (3) property conditioned generation (4) multi-feedstock conditioned generation and (5) generative optimization. These methods were tested on three case studies: high entropy alloy design, superalloy binder jet additive manufacturing, and in-situ dual-feedstock wire-arc additive manufacturing. Results indicate that the established models are extremely flexible, expressive, and robust. The architecture’s flexibility and training procedure empower the model to learn complex intra-compositional and composition-property relationships. Furthermore, the probabilistic nature of these models makes them well suited for addressing solution non-uniqueness and tackling uncertainty quantification tasks. While the fidelity and quantity of the underlying training data is paramount, we envision that future alloy design frameworks will make extensive use of these kinds of machine learning models as “search” tools bolstering the utility of experimental and computational approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past half-century

We demonstrate a tripling in the frequency of planetary wave resonance events over the past halfcentury, coinciding with the rise in persistent boreal summer weather extremes. This increase aligns with changes in the underlying climate conditions favoring these events, including amplified Arctic warming and land-sea thermal contrast. We also observe increased prevalence of resonant amplification events following the mature phase of strong El Niño events, suggesting that such events may precondition the mean state conditions in ways that favor large-scale quasi-stationary wave patterns and quasi-resonant wave amplification. Since the impact of anthropogenic warming on quasi-resonant amplification is not well captured by current-generation climate models, it is likely that models are underpredicting the potential increase, indicating even greater risk of persistent extreme summer weather events with ongoing warming.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2024

Why Do Oceanic Nonlinearities Contribute Only Weakly to Extreme El Niño Events?

Abstract Extreme El Niño events have outsized global impacts and control the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases asymmetries. Yet, a consensus regarding the relative contributions of atmospheric and oceanic nonlinearities to their genesis remains elusive. Here, we isolate the contribution of oceanic nonlinearities by conducting paired experiments forced with opposite wind stress anomalies in an oceanic general circulation model, which realistically simulates extreme El Niño events and oceanic nonlinearities thought to contribute to ENSO skewness (Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs), Nonlinear Dynamical Heating (NDH)). Our findings indicate a weak contribution of oceanic nonlinearities to extreme El Niño events in the eastern Pacific, owing to compensatory effects between lateral (NDH and TIWs) and vertical processes. These results hold across different vertical mixing schemes and modifications of the upper‐ocean heat budget mixed layer criterion. Our study reinforces previous research underscoring the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fine‐Tuning Alkyl Chains on Quinoxaline Nonfullerene Acceptors Enables High‐Efficiency Ternary Organic Solar Cells with Optimizing Molecular Stacking and Reducing Energy Loss

Abstract Material design of guest acceptor is always a big challenge for improving the efficiency of ternary organic solar cells (OSCs). Here, a pair of isomeric nonfullerene acceptors based on quinoxaline core, Qx–p‐C 7 H 8 O and Qx–m‐C 7 H 8 O, is designed and synthesized. By moving the alkoxy chain attached on side phenyl frommeta‐position topara‐position, both π–π stacking distance and crystallinity are enhanced simultaneously. They obtain the uplifted lowest unoccupied molecular orbital level. Compared to Qx–m‐C 7 H 8 O, Qx–p‐C 7 H 8 O exhibits wider absorption spectrum and higher extinction coefficient. Using D18‐Cl:N3 as host materials, the addition of guest acceptor Qx–p‐C 7 H 8 O significantly improves the power conversion efficiency (PCE) from 17.61% to 18.49% because of higher open‐circuit voltage (0.875 V) and short‐circuit current density (27.85 mA cm −2 ). This can be attributed to the faster exciton dissociation, more balanced carrier mobility, fine fiber morphology, and lower energy loss in the ternary devices. However, Qx–m‐C 7 H 8 O‐based ternary device achieves relatively low PCE of 17.17% because this device shows extremely low electron mobility. The results indicate that molecular stacking, film morphology, etc., can be effectively modulated by fine‐tuning the side chains of guest materials, which may be an effective design rule for further improving the PCE of OSCs.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low‐Temperature and High‐Rate Rechargeable Aluminum Batteries Enabled by Ternary Eutectic Electrolytes

Abstract Rechargeable aluminum batteries (RABs) have garnered extensive scientific attention as a promising alternative chemistry due to the inherent advantages associated with aluminum (Al) metal anodes, including their high theoretical capacities, cost‐effectiveness, environmental friendliness, and inherent non‐flammable properties. Nonetheless, the practical energy density of RABs is constrained by the electrolytes that support lower operational voltage windows. Herein, we report a ternary eutectic electrolyte composed of 1‐ethyl‐3‐methylimidazolium chloride ([C 2 C 1 im]Cl):1‐butyl‐3‐methylimidazolium chloride ([C 4 C 1 im]Cl):aluminum chloride (AlCl 3 ) for the application of RABs. The electrolyte exhibits a high operational potential window (~3 V vs. Al/Al 3+ on SS 316) and high ionic conductivity (~8.3 mS cm −1 ) while exhibiting only a low temperature glass transition at −65 °C suitable for all‐climate conditions. Al||graphene nanoplatelets cell delivers a high capacity of ~117 mAh/g, and ~43 mAh/g at a very high current densities of 1 A/g and 5 A/g, respectively. The cells render a reversible capacity of 20 mAh/g at −20 °C and 17 mAh/g at −40 °C, indicating their suitability for operation under extreme environmental conditions. We comprehensively evaluated the design and optimization of carbon paper‐based battery systems. The ternary eutectic electrolyte demonstrates exceptional electrochemical performance, thus signifying its substantial potential for utilization in high‐performance energy storage systems in all climates.

Vadthya, Raju↗
DOE OSTI2025

The short-term comprehensive impact of the phase-out of global coal combustion on air pollution and climate change

With the continuous intensification of global warming, the reduction and ultimate phase-out of coal combustion is an inevitable trend in the future global energy transformation. This study comprehensively analyzed the impact of phasing out coal combustion on global emissions and concentrations of air pollutants, radiative fluxes, meteorology and climate using Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The results indicate that after the global phase-out of coal combustion, there is a marked decrease in the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), with some regions experiencing a reduction of exceeding 50%. There is no significant change in global ozone (O 3 ) concentration. There are decreasing AOD and positive radiative fluxes globally in the short term, though the cloud contributes minor negative radiative fluxes. The global air temperature may increase by approximately (0.02 ± 0.15) °C on average with regional and seasonal variations, and the precipitation may potentially increase by approximately (2.7 ± 40.6) mm yr −1 globally and over 20% in equatorial regions in the short term. But combined with the decreasing trend of cloud water content in the Northern Hemisphere, it indicates a potential increase in the extremity of precipitation events. In conclusion, this study provides references for global control of air pollution, mitigation strategies of climate change, and transformation of energy structures under the objective of “carbon neutrality”, such as focusing on the negative climate impacts of exacerbating regional warming and increasing extreme precipitation resulting from the rapid reduction of aerosols in the short term.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosolvent-tuned interactions in ionic liquids: A vibrational and quantum-chemical study of ethylene glycol ratio effects

Ionic liquids (ILs) are attractive media for CO 2 capture but remain limited by viscosity and cost. Blending ILs with ethylene glycol (EG) is a practical route to mitigate these constraints, yet the molecular origins of cosolvent effects and their dependence on composition are not well resolved. We combine Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy with quantum-chemical (DFT) analysis to elucidate how the IL:EG molar ratio modulates intermolecular interactions and electronic structure. Computed vibrational frequencies enable mode assignment and deconvolution of overlapping bands, revealing systematic, ratio-dependent shifts and broadenings in (i) EG O–H stretching, (ii) cation and EG C–H stretchings (imidazolium C2–H, C4–H, C5–H, methyl and ethyl groups, -CH2 of EG), (iii) anion signature modes (e.g., CN motifs), and (iv) EG C–O and C–C stretchings, consistent with the redistribution of hydrogen-bonding networks. Molecular electrostatic potential (MESP) maps quantify attenuation of extreme potential regions with increasing EG, indicating progressive screening of cation–anion electrostatic interactions. Quantum Theory of Atoms in Molecules (QTAIM) identifies emergent bond critical points between EG and the IL ions, while Reduced Density Gradient–Noncovalent Interaction (RDG–NCI) analysis differentiates strong directional hydrogen bonds from dispersive contacts across compositions. Together, these results show that EG fraction controls a switch from predominantly ion–ion to mixed ion–EG coordination, altering local polarity and polarizability that underlie the observed FT-IR trends. The framework provides composition–structure–spectrum relationships that can guide rational selection of IL:EG ratios to balance favorable molecular interactions with practical performance targets in scalable CO 2 capture systems.

DAC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations and modeling reveal that heatwaves reduce photosynthesis, plant carbon reserves, and net carbon uptake

Heatwaves threaten ecosystem carbon balances, yet the mechanisms driving short-term carbon flux responses remain poorly understood. Here, integrating high-frequency eddy covariance (EC) data from 140 global flux tower sites (872 site-years) with detailed process-based modeling, we examine ecosystem responses during and immediately after heatwaves. We show that heatwaves caused a −40% (range [−29%, −128%]) reduction in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) compared to pre-heatwave values, with this reduction persisting over the following two weeks (−38% range [+3%, −154%]). We attributed NEP decreases to photosynthesis decreases more than to ecosystem respiration (RE) increases. Forest sites had greater NEP decreases during heatwaves than non-forest sites, but remained carbon sinks afterwards, indicating resilience. Our modeling analysis of extreme heatwaves at selected EC sites shows that decreased photosynthesis, increased maintenance respiration, and decreased plant non-structural carbon reserves during heatwaves drive carbon cycle changes that persist for weeks. Consistent with phenocam observations, we modeled a reduction in leaf area index caused by reduced non-structural carbon reserves, leading to early leaf senescence and longer-term impacts. Ongoing increases in heatwaves are therefore likely to reduce NEP across a range of ecosystems, exacerbating carbon cycle feedback.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: improved mitigation of spatially varying observational systematics with masking

As photometric surveys reach unprecedented statistical precision, systematic uncertainties increasingly dominate large-scale structure probes relying on galaxy number density. Defining the final survey footprint is critical, as it excludes regions affected by artefacts or suboptimal observing conditions. For galaxy clustering, spatially varying observational systematics, such as seeing, are a leading source of bias. Template maps of contaminants are used to derive spatially dependent corrections, but extreme values may fall outside the applicability range of mitigation methods, compromising correction reliability. The complexity and accuracy of systematics modelling depend on footprint conservativeness, with aggressive masking enabling simpler, robust mitigation. We present a unified approach to define the DES Year 6 joint footprint, integrating observational systematics templates and artefact indicators that degrade mitigation performance. This removes extreme values from an initial seed footprint, leading to the final joint footprint. By evaluating the DES Year 6 lens sample MagLim++ plus plus on this footprint, we enhance the Iterative Systematics Decontamination (ISD) method, detecting non-linear systematic contamination and improving correction accuracy. While the mask's impact on clustering is less significant than systematics decontamination, it remains non-negligible, comparable to statistical uncertainties in certain w(theta) scales and redshift bins. Supporting coherent analyses of galaxy clustering and cosmic shear, the final footprint spans 4031.04 deg2, setting the basis for DES Year 6 1x2pt, 2x2pt, and 3x2pt analyses. This work highlights how targeted masking strategies optimise the balance between statistical power and systematic control in Stage-III and -IV surveys.

Rodríguez-Monroy, M. [Madrid, IFT; IJCLab, Orsay]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska

The purpose of this report is to determine the effects that extreme cold temperatures have on electric vehicles (EVs) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). The adoption of EVs in extreme cold weather presents challenges that require careful analysis of efficiency and charging infrastructure. This report, "Electric Vehicle and Charging Infrastructure Assessment in Cold-Weather Climates: A Case Study of Fairbanks, Alaska," explores how EVs and EVSE perform in temperatures as low as -40 degrees C (-40 degrees F), focusing on real-world data from Teslas in Alaskan winter conditions. The findings indicate that EVs can successfully function in extreme cold, though efficiency is significantly affected. Vehicles stored in heated environments outperformed those stored outdoors, with efficiency dropping by up to 69% for outdoor storage. Despite these challenges, none of the vehicles experienced failures that prevented travel. Storing EVs indoors led to benefits such as faster preconditioning and improved efficiency, while charging in extreme cold, though slower, remained functional. Ultimately, the report concludes that with proper precautions and best practices, EVs are viable transportation solutions in cold climates. Investing in enclosed, heated storage is recommended to maximize efficiency and minimize battery strain. As advancements in battery chemistry and thermal management progress, EV adoption in extreme climates is expected to become even more feasible.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emergence of an island of extreme nuclear isomerism at high excitation near 208 Pb

Metastable states with $T_{1/2}$ = 8(2) ms in 205Bi and $T_{1/2}$ = 0.22(2) ms in 204 Pb, with ≈ 8 MeV excitation energy and angular momentum ≥ 22 $\hbar$, have been established. These represent, by up to two orders of magnitude, the longest-lived nuclear states above an excitation energy of 7 MeV, ever identified in the nuclear chart. Additionally, the half-life of the 10.17 MeV state in 206 Bi has been determined to be 0.027(2) ms, the next highest value in this highly excited regime. These observations indicate the emergence of an island of extreme nuclear isomerism arising from core-excited configurations at high excitation in the vicinity of the doubly closed-shell nucleus 208 Pb. These results are expected to provide discriminating tests of the effective interactions used in current large-scale shell-model calculations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme Wind and Waves in U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

The Outer Continental Shelf along the U.S. east coast exhibits abundant wind resources and is now a geographic focus for offshore wind deployments. This analysis derives and presents expected extreme wind and wave conditions for the sixteen lease areas that are currently being developed. Using the homogeneous ERA5 reanalysis dataset it is shown that the fifty-year return period wind speed (U50) at 100 m a.s.l. in the lease areas ranges from 29.2 to 39.7 ms -1 . After applying corrections to account for spectral smoothing and averaging period, the associated pseudo-point U50 estimates are 34 to 46 ms -1 . The derived uncertainty in U50 estimates due to different distributional fitting is smaller than the uncertainty associated with under-sampling of the interannual variability in annual maximum wind speeds. It is shown that, in the northern lease areas, annual maximum wind speeds are generally associated with intense extratropical cyclones rather than cyclones of tropical origin. Extreme wave statistics are also presented and indicate that the 50-year return period maximum wave height may substantially exceed 15 m. From this analysis, there is evidence that annual maximum wind speeds and waves frequently derive from the same cyclone source and often occur within a 6 h time interval.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗