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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Precursor Analysis Report: SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003

The SQL Slammer Worm Infection of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant 2003 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about Davis-Besse’s 2003 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 25 January 2003, the SQL Slammer worm infected more than 90% of vulnerable hosts and crashed the internet in 10 to 15 minutes, making it one of the fastest spreading worms in history. SQL Slammer is a fileless, memory-resident worm that remotely exploits a stack-based buffer overflow vulnerability on local hosts to intensively scan and rapidly self-propagate across the internet. The worm infected approximately 300,000 unpatched hosts running Microsoft Structured Query Language (SQL) Server 2000 or Microsoft Desktop Engine (MSDE) 2000 with SQL Server Resolution Service. The SQL Slammer worm indirectly infected FirstEnergy’s Davis-Besse nuclear power plant by first infecting a consultant’s company network server and then propagating through an external misconfigured connection into Davis-Besse’s site network. The infection caused major network congestion, slow performance, data overloads, and the inability of local hosts to communicate with each other, which eventually caused a loss of availability and a loss of view when the Safety Parameter Display System (SPDS) and Plant Process Computer (PPC) crashed. At the time of the infection, the plant was already offline, the digital monitoring systems had redundant analog backups, and the plant control and safety functions were not affected, so there were no concerns of a safety breach. However, this incident resulted in many lessons learned and spawned important discussions about cybersecurity’s role in nuclear safety and electric power reliability regulation, policy, and guidance. Researchers and analysts identified 10 unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 640 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Eight of the identified techniques used during Davis-Besse cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 596 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 428 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 331 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022

The Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Industroyer2 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. An adversary attempted to cause a blackout in Ukraine in April 2022 by using the Industroyer2 malware against a regional Ukrainian energy provider. The adversary targeted eight high-voltage electrical substations and utilized the malware in tandem with disk wipers for Windows, Linux, and Solaris operating systems in an attempt to make response and recovery efforts more difficult. The adversary reused a piece of the original Industroyer malware designed to open circuit breakers and de-energize target substations. The adversary gained initial access to the victim’s enterprise network through unknown means in February 2022 and was able to perform reconnaissance, pivot to the operations network, and reside in the system for at least 51 days. This gave the adversary a detailed understanding of the environment and allowed them to customize the Industroyer2 malware to the victim’s operations network. However, defenders detected and stopped the attack before the adversary could achieve their intended impact. Had the Industroyer2 attack been successful, it could have caused a blackout for more than two million people during the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 31 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 297 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-three of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer2 cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 224 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 122 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 51 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016

The Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the December 2016 cyber attack against the Ukrainian Ukrenergo electric transmission utility and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. Industroyer is a modular malware framework designed to deploy several Industrial Control System (ICS) protocol-specific attack payloads to disrupt electricity distribution. Adversaries deployed Industroyer within the target network on a Microsoft Windows endpoint capable of directly manipulating or communicating with ICS. Industroyer abuses the functionality of a targeted ICS’s legitimate control system to achieve its intended impact. Adversaries likely first gained access to Ukrenergo enterprise networks in early 2016 after a successful spearphishing campaign against organizations in the electric power sector. Adversaries then began capturing credentials beginning on 1 December 2016. This allowed access to the ICS environment at the Pivnichna electric transmission substation outside Kyiv through a device dual-homed on the Information Technology (IT) and ICS networks. Adversaries conducted discovery, targeting, and access to this device using information and previously captured credentials from compromised enterprise IT machines. Finally, the adversaries deployed and launched the Industroyer malware just before midnight on 17 December. By midnight, Ukrenergo had lost control of a targeted substation, resulting in electric power outages for over an hour in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Researchers and analysts identified 31 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 33 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 846 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-nine of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 548 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 353 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 300 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Zircon-to-reidite phase transition enhanced by minor radiation damage: Implications for hypervelocity impacts

Reidite, a high-pressure phase of zircon, is increasingly identified at terrestrial impact sites. Despite its growing recognition, the potential applications for estimating minimum impact pressure face impediments due to existing discrepancies in the condition of zircon-reidite transformation, controversial models governing the transformation mechanism, and unclear effects of pre-existing radiation damage on reidite formation. Here, we show enhanced reidite formation by synchrotron X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy analyses of zircon grains that have experienced different alpha-decay doses from U and Th impurities and subsequent pressurization in diamond anvil cells. Below ~1 × 10 18 α-decay events/g, the α-decay-induced isolated point defects in the still crystalline zircon facilitate the minor atomic readjustments required for reidite formation. However, above this dose, the loss of long-range periodicity in severely damaged or even metamict zircon inhibits the transformation. The enhanced reidite formation by minor radiation damage coincides with the more common occurrence of reidite at impact sites for which the precursor zircon has a relatively lower alphadecay- event dose before the impact event. In addition, the detailed atomic-scale structures of twinned reidite provide unambiguous evidence for a characteristic internal stress-induced martensitic transition. Furthermore, these findings have important implications for interpreting the formation conditions of natural reidite due to the convergence of pressure from the static, shockwave, and natural reidite samples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disruptive neoclassical tearing mode seeding in DIII-D with implications for ITER

New studies identify the critical parameters and physics governing disruptive neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) onset. An m/n = 2/1 mode in DIII-D that begins to grow robustly after a seeding event (edge localized mode ELM or sawtooth precursor and crash) causes the mode rotation to drop close to the plasma's Er = 0 rest frame; this condition opens the stabilizing ion-polarization current 'gate' and destabilizes an otherwise marginally stable NTM. Our new experimental and theoretical insights and novel toroidal theory-based modeling are benchmarked and scalable to ITER and other future experiments. Here, the nominal ITER rotation at q = 2 is found to be stabilizing ('gate closed') except for MHD-induced transients that could 'open the gate'. Extrapolating from the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario (IBS) discharges, MHD transients are much more likely to destabilize problematic robustly growing 2/1 NTMs in ITER; this makes predictions of seeding and control of both ELMs and sawteeth imperative for more than just minimizing divertor pulsed-heat loading.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive of Ireland 2021

The Conti Ransomware Attack on the Health Service Executive (HSE) of Ireland 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed by the adversary. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. The HSE provides public healthcare corporate services and operational services throughout Ireland, with critical functions including the acute national ambulance service, acute hospital service, and community healthcare service. On 14 May 2021, Conti ransomware encrypted 80 percent of the HSE’s Information Technology (IT) infrastructure across corporate, hospital, community, and electronic health record services. Conti is a ransomware-as-a-service operation that encrypts local files, uses double extortion against victims, and is facilitated by many intrusion tools. The attack forced the HSE to shut down its entire IT infrastructure to contain the ransomware, forcing employees to revert to pen and paper recordkeeping and leading to the cancellation of many appointments and procedures. The adversary also exfiltrated 700 GB of data, compromising the confidentiality of patients’ protected health information. Had the adversary targeted the COVID-19 cloud systems or operational technology assets, such as Internet of Medical Things medical devices or smart building management systems, the impact of the attack would almost certainly have been far more severe. Researchers and analysts identified 21 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 23 steps) likely utilized during the attack with a total of 1,185 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-one of the identified techniques used during the attack on the HSE were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 1,086 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 850 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 57 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated deep learning framework for unstable event identification and disruption prediction of tokamak plasmas

Abstract The ability to identify underlying disruption precursors is key to disruption avoidance. In this paper, we present an integrated deep learning (DL) based model that combines disruption prediction with the identification of several disruption precursors like rotating modes, locked modes, H-to-L back transitions and radiative collapses. The first part of our study demonstrates that the DL-based unstable event identifier trained on 160 manually labeled DIII-D shots can achieve, on average, 84% event identification rate of various frequent unstable events (like H-L back transition, locked mode, radiative collapse, rotating MHD mode, large sawtooth crash), and the trained identifier can be adapted to label unseen discharges, thus expanding the original manually labeled database. Based on these results, the integrated DL-based framework is developed using a combined database of manually labeled and automatically labeled DIII-D data, and it shows state-of-the-art (AUC = 0.940) disruption prediction and event identification abilities on DIII-D. Through cross-machine numerical disruption prediction studies using this new integrated model and leveraging the C-Mod, DIII-D, and EAST disruption warning databases, we demonstrate the improved cross-machine disruption prediction ability and extended warning time of the new model compared with a baseline predictor. In addition, the trained integrated model shows qualitatively good cross-machine event identification ability. Given a labeled dataset, the strategy presented in this paper, i.e. one that combines a disruption predictor with an event identifier module, can be applied to upgrade any neural network based disruption predictor. The results presented here inform possible development strategies of machine learning based disruption avoidance algorithms for future tokamaks and highlight the importance of building comprehensive databases with unstable event information on current machines.

plasma instabilities↗
NASA NTRS2022

Diagnostic classification of flash drought events reveals distinct classes of forcings and impacts

Recent years have seen growing appreciation that rapidly intensifying flash droughts are significant climate hazards with major economic and ecological impacts. This has motivated efforts to inventory, monitor, and forecast flash drought events. Here we consider the question of whether the term “flash drought” comprises multiple distinct classes of event, which would imply that understanding and forecasting flash droughts might require more than one framework. To do this, we first extend and evaluate a soil moisture volatility–based flash drought definition that we introduced in previous work and use it to inventory the onset dates and severity of flash droughts across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1979–2018. Using this inventory, we examine meteorological and land surface conditions associated with flash drought onset and recovery. These same meteorological and land surface conditions are then used to classify the flash droughts based on precursor conditions that may represent predictable drivers of the event. We find that distinct classes of flash drought can be diagnosed in the event inventory. Specifically, we describe three classes of flash drought: “dry and demanding” events for which antecedent evaporative demand is high and soil moisture is low, “evaporative” events with more modest antecedent evaporative demand and soil moisture anomalies, but positive antecedent evaporative anomalies, and “stealth” flash droughts, which are different from the other two classes in that precursor meteorological anomalies are modest relative to the other classes. The three classes exhibit somewhat different geographic and seasonal distributions. We conclude that soil moisture flash droughts are indeed a composite of distinct types of rapidly intensifying droughts, and that flash drought analyses and forecasts would benefit from approaches that recognize the existence of multiple phenomenological pathways.

Mahmoud Osman↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate accident precursors by evaluating anomaly occurrences for their system safety implications and, through both analytical and deliberative methods used to project to other circumstances, identifying those that portend more serious consequences to come if effective corrective action is not taken. APA builds upon existing safety analysis processes currently in practice within NASA, leveraging their results to provide an improved understanding of overall system risk. As such, APA represents an important dimension of safety evaluation; as operational experience is acquired, precursor information is generated such that it can be fed back into system safety analyses to risk-inform safety improvements. Importantly, APA utilizes anomaly data to predict risk whereas standard reliability and PRA approaches utilize failure data which often is limited and rare.

Groen, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2003

Crystal Size Distributions from Porphyritic Olivine Chondrules: Insights into Formation Conditions

Most chondrules preserve, in their texture, a record of their precursor material and the nature and intensity of the nebular events in which they were formed. We have used crystal size distributions (CSDs) together with crystallization experiments to explore the textures of natural chondrules and their relationships to natural formation conditions. Many careful experimental studies have demonstrated fundamental relationships between the texture of a chondrule and its precursor material, melting intensity, and cooling rate. However, until recently most studies have focused on distinctions between textural types (e.g., barred, radial, porphyritic). Previous work has shown that CSDs provide precise, reproducible characterizations of chondrule-scale textures, and can be used together with crystallization experiments to estimate chondrule formation conditions. Here, we expand this study to investigate the link between texture and formation conditions for a range of natural porphyritic olivine (PO) chondrules.

Zieg, M. J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Going Off Grid: A Comparative Study of the Lagrangian and Eulerian Perspectives of New Particle Formation Events

New particle formation and growth (NPF&G) is the process by which ultrafine particles are formed from gas-phase precursors. NPF&G is the dominant source of global aerosol number with important influences on climate. Most observations of NPF&G events are conducted at stationary sites; however, NPF&G observed from stationary sites is influenced by gradual or rapid changes in the air masses passing over the site, complicating NPF&G analysis. In this work, we use observations and a 3D aerosol model to compare aerosol size distributions at a stationary site (Southern Great Plains [SGP] observatory, Oklahoma, USA) and along Lagrangian trajectories crossing the site. The model simulates the NPF&G events reasonably well at SGP. Using the model to compare the Lagrangian and stationary perspectives, we can explain previously unanalyzable days with some evidence of NPF&G as either non-event or analyzable NPF&G days. We find most of the unanalyzable NPF&G days are due to isolated and inhomogeneous NPF&G occurring upwind of the stationary site, often in the outflow of urban regions. Finally, we compare formation rates of 3 nm particles, growth rates, and the survival probability of 3 nm particles growing to 25 nm between the stationary and Lagrangian perspectives. Because of the much larger number of analyzable days along the Lagrangian trajectories, this perspective potentially provides more robust statistics and better characterization of NPF&G event extremes. Our method for extracting chemical/physical properties along Lagrangian trajectories from 3D models can be applied to a wide range of science questions.

O’Donnell, Samuel E. [Colorado State Univ., Fort C↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spring Regional Sea Surface Temperatures as a Precursor of European Summer Heatwaves

Different spring and early summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) have been shown to precede recent European summer heatwaves (EuSHWs). So far, the limited number of observed events associated with several physical mechanisms has prevented a robust identification of SSTAs as precursors. Here, we extend beyond previous studies by combining 100 historical simulations (1850–2005) of the MPI Grand-Ensemble with an explainable neural-network method. We find that the spring tripolar North Atlantic pattern with positive SSTAs in the Subtropical Gyre is a precursor of EuSHWs. In addition, positive SSTAs west of the Iberian Peninsula, and in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean Sea relate to distinct early summer soil moisture anomaly patterns and are precursors of western and southeastern EuSHWs, respectively. While the phase of the tripolar North Atlantic pattern indicates whether a EuSHW might emerge, regional SSTAs indicate the spatial characteristics of EuSHWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino and La Nina: the Role of Altimetry in ENSO Studies and Prediction

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to be a quasi-periodic coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring roughly every 3-7 years. Its largest oceanic manifestations are found in the equatorial Pacific, but it is of global climatic significance. During the flight of the TOPEX]Poseidon altimeter, the equatorial Pacific was in the midst of an unusual period of prolonged ENSO warming in the mid-1990's. In 1997, the tropical Pacific witnessed the development of a major El Nino event, rivaling in strength the 1982-83 El Nino. The intensity of this El Nino, and its rapid intensification early in the calendar year, caught the scientific community by surprise. None of the forecast models, statistical or dynamical, captured these features of the 1997 El Nino, although those models that assimilated in situ ocean observations did better than most in predicting that the event would occur in 1997. The onset of the El Nino coincided with the occurrence of several westerly wind events in the western Pacific rather than to delayed oscillator physics. However, western Pacific sea levels were anomalously elevated a year and a half prior to the onset, which may have helped precondition the system to a particularly strong ENSO episode. The coming of La Nina was foreshadowed by large-scale drops in sea level in the western tropical Pacific and cyclonic wind stress curl anomalies far beyond the +\- 8 degrees latitude bounds of the TAO mooring array. In past El Nino events, the evolution of the coupled system could only be studied from the perspective of in situ observations. The 1997-1998 El Nino event will be the first time a major El Nino event will have been observed from start to finish via remotely-sensed measurements of sea surface topography, sea surface temperature, sea surface winds, ocean color, and precipitation. These observations have considerable potential for advancing coupled climate forecasts on time scales from seasons to decades. This presentation will address questions along the lines of: (1) What are the scientific problems in ENSO that can benefit most from altimetry data? (2) Are there any precursors in the global ocean-atmosphere system for the 1997-98 extreme event? (3) Is there a unique role of altimetry in detecting potential precursors?(4) Has Topex/Poseidon data been adequately used to improve ENSO forecasts? Is there any firm evidence? (6) What is the status of the transition of El Nino into a La Nina?

Busalacchi, Antonio J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Flood Monitoring and Crop Damage Assessment

In recent years, the occurrence and impact of inland and coastal flood events have become more frequent and damaging, especially within agricultural fields, due to the global climate change and consistent sea level rise. Monitoring and measuring the magnitude of flood events in a timely manner and assessing the subsequent crop damages accurately are precursors in minimizing detrimental consequences that could potentially lead to a global food security crisis. Traditional gauge-based measurements with sophisticated hydrological models are capable of monitoring flood events precisely but limited within the smaller spatial extent, time-consuming, and costly. In recent decades, advancement in airborne- and satellite-based remote sensing technologies offering products at a daily global spatial extent with various spectral resolution helps address the shortcomings of the traditional in situ approaches in flood monitoring. Furthermore, the methods such as classification and band ratioing using remote sensing products are simple and effective in assessing flood-induced agricultural damages. The combination of remote sensing products and geographic information systems along with the current development in web mapping, users now can get near real-time flood monitoring and crop damage assessments, albeit dependent upon the quality of available data. A case study to quantify the impact of the 2011 Missouri Mississippi River flooding on the surrounding cornfield was performed through a regression model. The model was trained using historical daily NDVI and corn yield across Nebraska and Missouri, and the overall accuracy in estimating corn yield was about 90%. The method implemented in this localized case study could be extended at a larger geographical scale.

Flood monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2008

Oxygen Isotope Systematics of Chondrules from the Least Equilibrated H Chondrite

Oxygen isotope compositions of bulk chondrules and their mineral separates in type 3 ordinary chondrites (UOC) show several % variability in the oxygen three isotope diagram with slope of approx.0.7 [1]. In contrast, ion microprobe analyses of olivine and pyroxene phenocrysts in ferromagnesian chondrules from LL 3.0-3.1 chondrites show mass dependent isotopic fractionation as large as 5% among type I (FeO-poor) chondrules, while type II (FeO-rich) chondrules show a narrow range (less than or equal to 1%) of compositions [2]. The .Delta(exp 17)O (=delta(exp 17)O-0.52xdelta(exp 18)O) values of olivine and pyroxene in these chondrules show a peak at approx.0.7% that are systematically lower than those of bulk chondrule analyses as well as the bulk LL chondrites [2]. Further analyses of glass in Semarkona chondrules show .17O values as high as +5% with highly fractionated d18O (max +18%), implying O-16-poor glass in chondrules were altered as a result of hydration in the parent body at low temperature [3]. Thus, chondrules in LL3.0-3.1 chondrites do not provide any direct evidence of oxygen isotope exchange between solid precursor and O-16-depleted gas during chondrule melting events. To compare the difference and/or similarity between chondrules from LL and H chondrites, we initiated systematic investigations of oxygen isotopes in chondrules from Yamato 793408 (H3.2), one of the least equilibrated H chondrite [4]. In our preliminary study of 4 chondrules, we reported distinct oxygen isotope ratios from dusty olivine and refractory forsterite (RF) grains compared to their host chondrules and confirmed their relict origins [5].

Kita, N. T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2008

CME-Producing Precursors to the 2006 December 13 X-Flare

We revisit one of the largest explosions observed during the Hinode era, the X4.3 class event of 2006 Dec 13. We gain insight into the main eruption through study of two sub-C-class precursor eruptions, occurring within 12 hours of and originating from the same (or nearby) neutral line as the X-flare. The precursors share some features in common with the main eruption, and their lower energy and consequent slower development renders interpretation of these features easier to decipher than in the rapidly explosive main eruption. In addition, because the weak precursors occurred in a magnetically strong region, magnetic connections indicated by soft X-ray loops are readily visible in these cases, while such connections can be much less apparent in weaker-region eruptions. Hinode/SOT magnetograms indicate that photospheric magnetic dynamic activity in the "magnetic core" is the likely ultimate source of the eruptions. All the eruptions, however, produce Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that have wider spatial extent than the localized source region; this is a long-observed but puzzling phenomena, which can address directly here using the high-quality Hinode data. For the precursor eruptions, Hinode/XRT images show that the initial eruptions occur inside larger-scale magnetic structures that encompass the core. The exploding core field blows out this larger-scale structure, resulting in the CME having angular extent far exceeding that of the source-region core alone; this is the arch-arch-blowout scenario for CMEs of Moore & Sterling (2007). Similar processes occur in the main eruption, except that the much larger energy release in that eruption compared to the precursors results in much faster and larger-scale phenomena.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Chondrule formation in the radiative accretional shock

The physical, mineralogical, and isotopic properties of chondrules strongly indicate that they were formed by the rapid melting and resolidification of preexisting solids composed of primitive material. The chondrule precursors were heated to temperatures of about 1800 K in short high-temperature events, followed by cooling with a rate of 10(exp 2)-10(exp 3) K/hr. A heat input of about 1500 J/g is required to heat chondrule precursors to such a temperature and melt them. Lightning discharges and flares in the solar nebula, and heating of the chondrule precursors by friction with gas decelerated in the accretional shock or in a shock (of unspecified origin) within the solar nebula, have been discussed as possible mechanisms for chondrule formation. One advantage of chondrule formation in large-scale shocks is that a lot of dust material can be processed. An accretional shock, which is produced by infalling gas of the presolar cloud when it collides with the solar nebula, belongs to this type of shock. In 1984 Wood considered the possibility of chondrule formation in the accretional shock by heating of chondrule precursors by gas drag. He concluded that the density in the accreting material is much lower than needed to melt silicates at the distance of the asteroid belt if the accreting matter had the cosmic ratio of dust to gas, and the mass of the solar nebula did not exceed 2 solar mass units. Melting of chondrule precursors is difficult because of their effective cooling by thermal radiation. Suppression of the radiative cooling of individual grains in dust swarms, which are opaque to thermal emission, was considered to be the only possible means of chondrule formation in solar nebula shocks. Previous models of solid grain melting in solar nebula shocks have neglected gas cooling behind the shock front, i.e., they considered adiabatic shocks. In this paper we show that large dust grains could be heated much stronger than was supposed by these authors, because of effects associated with the gas cooling.

Ruzmaikina, T. V.↗