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DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of the quality of nuclear data for stable oxygen isotopes for Intentional Forensics applications

The Intentional Forensics (IF) project seeks to design a suite of tagging materials that can be used to unobtrusively “barcode” nuclear fuel. The idea being that, if the fuel leaves institutional controls and is later recovered, the “barcode” can be used to determine the provenance of the fuel. The IF project is investigating several schemes for this “barcode” and taggants with tailored isotopic compositions are once leading concept. Recently 18 O was suggested as a potential taggant [IF2023]. This report assesses the quality of 16,17,18 O evaluations in the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library [ENDF8.0]. In a neutron-rich environment such as a nuclear reactor, we are interested in two main processes – neutron scattering and neutron absorption (or capture). For the typical neutron energies encountered in a reactor, absorption is determined exclusively by the neutron radiative capture cross section (in which a neutron is absorbed, and the residual nucleus emits one or more gamma rays). The capture cross sections are described by and can be completely determined from R-matrix parameters in the ENDF evaluations. Therefore, it is sufficient to consider the quality of the neutron resonance part of these evaluations. Neutron scattering is determined mainly by the elastic scattering cross section which is very similar for all oxygen isotopes and is essentially constant until around 100 keV. The cross section varies from 3-4 barns, depending on the isotope, and 16 O has the largest elastic cross section of all isotopes. Therefore, we expect that significant amounts of 17 O and 18 O could diminish the moderating role of oxygen in fuel. We note that, in traditional power reactor, the hydrogen in the coolant water provides the vast majority of the moderation in the reactor, so the impact of 17 O and 18 O in any taggant would be minimal. At higher energies, neutron resonances start to play a role and the R-matrix parameters determine the cross sections. Fig. 1 shows the mass region near stable oxygen isotopes. As nuclei capture neutrons, they transmute into a different isotope, one unit to the right. In particular, 16 O transmutes to 17 O, 17 O transmutes to 18 O and 18 O transmutes to 19 O. 19 O, being unstable, beta decays in 27 s to 19 F. So, even if the 18 O neutron capture data is good, the fact that it transmutes into 19 F may be problematic and needs investigation. Fig. 2 from [NuDat] shows the thermal neutron capture cross sections for all nuclei in the ENDF/B-VII.1 library [ENDF7.1]. Clearly oxygen thermal capture values are quite small compared to other nuclei. Note, there is no 18 O evaluation in the ENDF/B-VII.1 library. In any event, given that neutron capture events lower the reactor reactivity and potentially induce chemical changes in the fuel, we will focus our attention on the capture part of the neutron resonances.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Deep Impact Extended Mission Challenges for the Validation and Verification Test Program

The Deep Impact Spacecraft was launched on January 12, 2005 as part of NASA's Discovery Program as a radical mission to excavate the interior of a comet. The Spacecraft consisted of two separate entities known as the Flyby and the Impactor, which were commanded to separate prior to comet rendezvous with comet 9P/Tempel 1. The overall mission was deemed a success on July 4, 2005, as the 370-kg Impactor collided with the comet at 10.2 km/s. This event was captured using the camera and infrared spectrometer on the Flyby spacecraft, along with ground-based observatories. Since this event, the Flyby spacecraft has been in hibernation mode and has received only a small amount of maintenance. The Deep Impact Program was managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), led by Dr. Michael A'Hearn from the University of Maryland in College Park, and built by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. in Boulder, Colorado.

Test Bench↗

NASA NTRS1990

Integrating performance data collection, analysis, and visualization

An integrated data collection, analysis, and data visualization environment is described for a specific parallel system - the Intel iPSC/2 hypercube. The data collection components of the environment encompass software event tracing at the operating system with a program level and a hardware-based performance monitoring system used to capture software events. A visualization system based on the X-window environment permits dynamic display and reduction of performance data. A performance data collection, analysis, and visualization environment makes it possible to access the effects of architectural and system software variations.

Malony, Allen D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.

Connor Welch↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electron-Proton Scattering Event Generation using Structured Tokenization

Recent work such as Omnijet-$\alpha$ has demonstrated that effective tokenization combined with transformer-based architectures can produce effective foundation models for jet physics. While tokenization may help models capture generalizable event characteristics, it also introduces discretization errors that may compromise the precision required for downstream physics analyses. As the number and complexity of the particle features grow, these errors are likely to grow proportionally. In this study, we investigate new tokenization strategies to improve the application of generative transformer models to \textsc{Pythia8} simulations of electron-proton scattering at the Electron-Ion Collider. Specifically, we propose a feature-based structured tokenization approach that utilizes multiple tokens per particle, improving expressivity, while reducing the total number of unique tokens needed. We evaluate this method against grid-based binning, K-means clustering, and vector-quantized variational auto-encoders on the event simulations. Our results show that feature-based structured tokenization reduces discretization error, leading to more accurate generative modeling of particle-level events.

Goldenberg, Steven [Thomas Jefferson National Acce↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electron-Proton Scattering Event Generation using Structured Tokenization

Goldenberg, Steven [Thomas Jefferson National Acce↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Testing of a Multi-Stringer Post-Buckled Panel with Incremental Damage Detection

A multi-stringer panel was designed and tested to produce a failure mode of skin-stiffener delamination due to compression loading of a post-buckled skin to support the validation of high-fidelity progressive damage failure analysis modeling. The test procedure included multiple methods of data acquisition ranging from multiple strain gages, front and back digital image correlation, passive thermography, acoustic emission, and ultrasonic inspection to capture key events and damage progression prior to catastrophic failure. Detailed data showing the initial stiffness, onset of skin buckling, buckled mode shape, damage initiation load, damage propagation morphology, and peak load was captured. Two panel configurations were tested. The first had a Teflon insert placed in the interface between the skin and the stiffener flanges adjacent to the center skin bay. The second was subjected to impact damage to the skin-stiffener flange. In each case, continuously-loaded-to-failure tests were conducted first with passive thermography being used exclusively to determine key damage events. Then, incrementally loaded tests were completed where ultrasonic inspections were conducted between each increment. The amount of load applied between each increment was determined based on the in-situ damage detection provided by the passive thermography system. The results of the testing showed a complex delamination growth pattern which migrated between ply interfaces through matrix splits in the upper skin ply of the panel. The result of the testing produced very detailed data which will prove to be useful for validation of delamination growth and migration predictions from progressive damage failure analysis methods.

Jason Action↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Genesis Solar Wind – Capture, Return, Curate and Analyze: Looking Backward and Creating a Timeline

Introduction: In 1997 NASA’S Discovery Program selected the Genesis mission proposal to return solar wind samples to Earth for laboratory analyses. Principal Investigator Donald S. Burnett and the science team defined the purity of collector materials and ability to analyze solar wind composition to the precision required for planetary science. As a small mission, focused on a well-defined science goal, yet needing careful attention to engineering details, the communication among scientists and engineers, nurtured by Don Burnett, was exceptional. Genesis Mission and Curation Legacy: Genesis, as the first U. S. spacecraft to return astromaterial samples since Apollo, not only integrated the mission planning and flight teams, but also the science and sample curation teams during the mission development period. Since Genesis is a sample return mission, the Science Team was essential in certifying the collectors (sample containers for solar atoms). From inception, Genesis established mission funding for returned sample curation. JSC was lead in contamination control during mission preparation, including establishment of an ISO 4 cleanroom facility and use of ultrapure water (UPW) for cleaning flight hardware (and, as it turned out, for cleaning collectors after the mishap). Reliable, fast communication among scientists, engineers and curators at the hands-on level established deep respect among team members and efficient decision-making. JSC’s 50-years of astromaterial sample curation provided experienced sample processors onsite during recovery in Utah (a deep bench for emergency response). Post-recovery curation included iterative collaboration with science sample users to clean or verify cleanliness of samples. The science legacy from Genesis is addressed by Burnett and Jurewicz, this volume. In The Beginning: After Apollo sample return, Burnett and Marcia Neugebauer at JPL began discussing a solar wind sample return, with Neugebauer arguing that separate collection of solar wind regimes was essential science. By 1992 a solar wind sample return mission was presented at a workshop, and by 1994 a mission was proposed named Suess-Urey. The mission was re-proposed under a new name GENESIS and selected in 1997. Susan Niebur captured the Genesis mission history and stories, from high level management documents and from many interviews with participants [2]. Her account lets readers glimpse personality of participants in quotations from interviews. Need and Scope for Detailed Technical Timeline: A timeline constructed from lower level task documents has been initiated to document the resources and skills actually used, as well as task sequence or concurrency. Timelines for high level mission events are captured in two documents [1] [2] and for detailed re-entry events in [3]. A detailed technical timeline for Genesis mission and curation activities will provide data points for lower level tasks, such as ISO 4 curation facility construction time, preparation for nominal sample field recovery, mishap recovery, and UPW expansion. Changes in technology context 1990-2024: Semiconductor technologies were easily accessible in the U.S.A. (1990-1999), and the Genesis team used those resources for cleanroom design and UPW system expansion. Image documentation was changing from film to digital during cleanroom construction and payload cleaning (1997-2001). Engineering design was done using computer aided design proprietary software, making more difficult the archiving of payload configuration and materials. Email of documents, tracked delivery service and virtual meeting capability greatly improved communication efficiency. Information sources – Pre-launch mission preparation: Examples of mission science, engineering and contamination control are collector purity testing, payload design/fabrication and ISO 4 cleanroom construction. Information on timing of these activities comes from facility readiness reviews, management reviews, shipping documents, procurement documents, test reports, travel documents, laboratory logs, Quality Assurance documents, dates on images, participant notebooks and emails. Information sources – Sample return re-entry and field recovery activities: Information comes from event timelines produced by Mid-Air Recovery team, Lockheed team lead notes and from chase video, JPL Quality Assurance. Information also comes from images and logbooks from UTTR cleanroom operations and from curatorial documents. Information sources – Resulting science and sample cleaning processes: Agendas from the annual gatherings of the science team initially trace testing for collector purity/cleanliness, and after sample recovery, include collector cleaning and cleanliness assessment. Post-recovery documents include curatorial orders and procedures, sample allocation documents and LPSC abstracts. Timeline Objectives: A simple spreadsheet timeline with headers DATE, EVENT, PEOPLE, COMMENT, INFORMATION SOURCE has been initiated and currently has over 90 entries. While this is not definitive historical research, it is a quick look at the evolution of Genesis curation with pointers to documents or people with information. Engineers for future missions may find useful points of comparison for development of facilities. References:[1] Genesis Mission Reference Document, (2011) JPL D-62382.[2] Niebur S. M., edited by Brown D. W. (2023) NASA’s Discovery Program: The First 20 Years of Competitive Planetary Exploration, NASA-SP-2023-4238.[3] Genesis Mishap Investigation Board Report, Vol. 1 (July 2005).

solar wind↗

NASA NTRS2004

Autonomous Multi-Sensor Coordination: The Science Goal Monitor

Many dramatic earth phenomena are dynamic and coupled. In order to fully understand them, we need to obtain timely coordinated multi-sensor observations from widely dispersed instruments. Such a dynamic observing system must include the ability to Schedule flexibly and react autonomously to sciencehser driven events; Understand higher-level goals of a sciencehser defined campaign; Coordinate various space-based and ground-based resources/sensors effectively and efficiently to achieve goals. In order to capture transient events, such a 'sensor web' system must have an automated reactive capability built into its scientific operations. To do this, we must overcome a number of challenges inherent in infusing autonomy. The Science Goal Monitor (SGM) is a prototype software tool being developed to explore the nature of automation necessary to enable dynamic observing. The tools being developed in SGM improve our ability to autonomously monitor multiple independent sensors and coordinate reactions to better observe dynamic phenomena. The SGM system enables users to specify what to look for and how to react in descriptive rather than technical terms. The system monitors streams of data to identify occurrences of the key events previously specified by the scientisther. When an event occurs, the system autonomously coordinates the execution of the users' desired reactions between different sensors. The information can be used to rapidly respond to a variety of fast temporal events. Investigators will no longer have to rely on after-the-fact data analysis to determine what happened. Our paper describes a series of prototype demonstrations that we have developed using SGM and NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite and Earth Observing Systems' Aqua/Terra spacecrafts' MODIS instrument. Our demonstrations show the promise of coordinating data from different sources, analyzing the data for a relevant event, autonomously updating and rapidly obtaining a follow-on relevant image. SGM was used to investigate forest fires, floods and volcanic eruptions. We are now identifying new Earth science scenarios that will have more complex SGM reasoning. By developing and testing a prototype in an operational environment, we are also establishing and gathering metrics to gauge the success of automating science campaigns.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗

DOE OSTI2021

A slip-spring framework to study relaxation dynamics of entangled wormlike micelles with kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm

Hypothesis: Wormlike micelles (WLMs) formed due to the self-assembly of amphiphiles in aqueous solution have similar viscoelastic properties as polymers. Owing to this similarity, in this work, it is postulated that kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) sampling of slip-springs dynamics, which is able to model the rheology of polymers, can also be extended to capture the relaxation dynamics of WLMs. Theory: The proposed modeling framework considers the following relaxation mechanisms: reptation, union-scission, and constraint release. Specifically, each of these relaxation mechanisms is simulated as separate kMC events that capture the relaxation dynamics while considering the living nature of WLMs within the slip-spring framework. As a case study, the model is implemented to a system of sodium oleate and sodium chloride to predict the linear rheology and the characteristic relaxation times associated with the individual relaxation mechanisms at different pH and salt concentrations. Findings: Linear rheology predictions were found to be in good agreement with experimental data. Furthermore, the calculated relaxation times highlighted that reptation contributed to a continuous increase in viscosity while union-scission contributed to the decrease in viscosity of WLM solutions at a higher salinity and pH. Finally, this manifests the proposed model’s capability to provide insights into the key processes governing WLM’s rheology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Convolutional Neural Networks for Event Classification on PMU Measurements

Event classification is one of the central components of automated disturbance analysis based on PMU measurements. Obtaining high-quality event labels remains a challenge for supervised learning-based classification of local and system-wide events in power grids due to its labor-intensive requirement. We present a sensitivity study considering rapidly refined, partially and fully inspected event labels that leads to evidence that hierarchical convolutional neural networks (HCNNs) outperform traditional classification models regardless of the quality of the available event labels. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that performance similar to the one obtained using entirely domain-driven labeling can be achieved as long as the involved expert does not mislabel more than ~5% of the event data captured by PMU measurements.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanically induced thermal runaway severity analysis of Li-ion batteries and continuous energy release monitoring

The large-scale deployment of Li-ion batteries in stationary energy storage and electrical vehicle applications demands a strong focus on safety, particularly on the thermal runaway risk and severity evaluation. A standardized single-side mechanical indentation test protocol was developed to induce an internal short-circuit (ISC) and evaluate cells' thermal runaway severity at different state of charge (SOC). The observed hazard severity (OHS in five categories) and evaluated scores in this work have a comprehensive consideration of each cell's capacity, initial voltage, SOC, temperature and voltage change, allowing a better evaluation of the cells' thermal runaway potential. This method was applied to about 200 Li-ion batteries in order to build an extensive thermal runaway database covering various SOCs, capacities and chemistries. In this study, we monitored the transitions of stored electrochemical energy and applied mechanical energy into both thermal energy and acoustic emissions (AE). The surface temperature and mechanical failures were monitored by infrared imaging and AE to capture critical events within battery cells throughout the mechanical indentation tests. Furthermore, the initial temperature maps can predict two types of follow-up events: thermal runaway or gradual heat release via conduction. Analyzing each cell's severity, AEs, and leveraging the evolving database offer insights into predicting occurrences of thermal runaway. The test method, thermal runaway severity evaluation and prediction, and the corresponding database provide battery designers, manufacturers, and end-users a clear overview of Li-ion batteries' thermal runaway potential under mechanical abuse, advancing the safety design of Li-ion batteries.

Acoustic emission↗

DOE OSTI2021

PERSIANN-CCS-CDR, a 3-hourly 0.04° global precipitation climate data record for heavy precipitation studies

Accurate long-term global precipitation estimates, especially for heavy precipitation rates, at fine spatial and temporal resolutions is vital for a wide variety of climatological studies. Most of the available operational precipitation estimation datasets provide either high spatial resolution with short-term duration estimates or lower spatial resolution with long-term duration estimates. Furthermore, previous research has stressed that most of the available satellite-based precipitation products show poor performance for capturing extreme events at high temporal resolution. Therefore, there is a need for a precipitation product that reliably detects heavy precipitation rates with fine spatiotemporal resolution and a longer period of record. Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Cloud Classification System-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CCS-CDR) is designed to address these limitations. This dataset provides precipitation estimates at 0.04° spatial and 3-hourly temporal resolutions from 1983 to present over the global domain of 60°S to 60°N. Evaluations of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR and PERSIANN-CDR against gauge and radar observations show the better performance of PERSIANN-CCS-CDR in representing the spatiotemporal resolution, magnitude, and spatial distribution patterns of precipitation, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence statistical analysis of the L-H transition and RMPs in KSTAR

Here, we investigate the turbulence statistics associated with low-to-high confinement (L-H) transitions and externally applied resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) in KSTAR. Time-series fluctuations of electron density n e , electron temperature T e , and the time derivative of the poloidal magnetic field dB θ /dt (Mirnov coils) are analysed using information-geometric measures (information rate Γ and information length $\mathcal{L}$ = ∫ Γ dt), together with kurtosis κ and variance σ 2 . In low-density upper single-null plasmas (n e ~ 1.2 x 10 19 m -3 ), a ~80 kHz magnetic mode coupling n e , T e , dB θ /dt and emerges prior to the L-H transition and persists into the edge-localised modes H-mode. Edge-localised RMPs (ERMPs) suppress this coherent mode but enhance intermittency, producing frequent bursts that abruptly reshape the time-dependent probability density functions (PDFs) and generate large spikes in Γ (with smaller changes in κ), signalling ERMP-driven departures from quasi-stationarity. The impact of ERMPs on background fluctuation levels depends on density, radial location, and the fluctuating variable itself ($\tilde{n}$, $\tilde{T}$, $\dot{B}$ θ ), whereas $\mathcal{L}$ provides a robust, regime-agnostic measure of cumulative statistical reorganisation and spatial decorrelation. In particular, at low density we observe weaker coupling between $\tilde{n}$ and $\tilde{T}$, along with a tendency toward decreased radial correlation-most clearly for $\tilde{T}$-under ERMPs. Overall, information geometry cleanly captures intermittent events, quantifies non-equilibrium PDF evolution, and offers a compact, cross-diagnostic metric for assessing resonant magnetic perturbation effects on edge transport and correlation across densities, radial locations, and confinement states.

Kim, Eun-jin [Coventry Univ. (United Kingdom); Seo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wind farm response to mesoscale-driven coastal low level jets: a multiscale large eddy simulation study

Realistic atmospheric turbulence–wind farm interactions during coastal low-level jet (LLJ) events are captured using high-fidelity, mesoscale-driven large eddy simulations (LES) to understand wind turbine loads, wakes and overall performance. The simulation has been carried out using the ExaWind aeroelastic solver, AMR-Wind. The simulations have been compared against a baseline unstable case matching the wind speed, wind direction and TI at hub-height location. Results indicate that the LLJ has negative impacts on the turbine hub and tower loads, and opens up potential avenues for design load mitigation strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiplex Editing of the Nucleoredoxin1 Tandem Array in Poplar: From Small Indels to Translocations and Complex Inversions

The CRISPR-Cas9 system has been deployed for precision mutagenesis in an ever-growing number of species, including agricultural crops and forest trees. Its application to closely linked genes with extremely high sequence similarities has been less explored. In this study, we used CRISPR-Cas9 to mutagenize a tandem array of seven Nucleoredoxin1 (NRX1) genes spanning ~100 kb in Populus tremula × Populus alba. We demonstrated efficient multiplex editing with one single guide RNA in 42 transgenic lines. The mutation profiles ranged from small insertions and deletions and local deletions in individual genes to large genomic dropouts and rearrangements spanning tandem genes. We also detected complex rearrangements including translocations and inversions resulting from multiple cleavage and repair events. Target capture sequencing was instrumental for unbiased assessments of repair outcomes to reconstruct unusual mutant alleles. The work highlights the power of CRISPR-Cas9 for multiplex editing of tandemly duplicated genes to generate diverse mutants with structural and copy number variations to aid future functional characterization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of directional muon beams generated at the Berkeley Lab Laser Accelerator

We present the detection of directional muon beams produced using a PW laser facility at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The muon source is a multi-GeV electron beam generated in a laser-plasma accelerator interacting with a high- converter target. The GeV photons resulting from the interaction are converted into a high-flux, directional muon beam via pair production. By employing scintillators to capture delayed events, we were able to identify the produced muons and characterize the source. Using theoretical knowledge of the muon production process combined with simulations that are in excellent agreement with the experiments, we demonstrate that laser-plasma accelerators have the capability of generating electron beams with characteristics suitable to produce GeV-scale muons that offer unique advantages with respect to the cosmic background. Laser-plasma-accelerator-based muon sources can therefore enhance muon imaging applications thanks to their compactness, directionality, and high yields, which reduce the exposure time by orders of magnitude compared to cosmic ray muons. Using the eant4-based simulation code we developed to gain insight into the experimental results, we can design future experiments and applications based on LPA-generated muons.

Terzani, Davide↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗