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DOE OSTI2020

Local Truncation Error-Informed Code Verification

The method of manufactured solutions (MMS) has become increasingly popular in conducting code verification studies on predictive codes, such as nuclear power system codes and computational fluid dynamic codes. The reason for the popularity of this approach is that it can be used when an analytical solution is not available. Using MMS, code developers are able to verify that their code is free of coding errors that impact the observed order of accuracy. While MMS is still an excellent tool for code verification, it does not identify coding errors that are of the same order as the numerical method. This paper presents a method that combines MMS with modified equation analysis (MEA), which calculates the local truncation error (LTE) to identify coding error up to and including the order of the numerical method. This method is referred to as modified equation analysis methd of manufactured solutions (MEAMMS). MEAMMS is then applied to a custom-built code, which solves the shallow water equations, to test the performance of the code verification method. MEAMMS is able to detect all coding errors that impact the implementation of the numerical scheme. To show how MEAMMS is different than MMS, they are both applied to the same first-order numerical method test problem with a first-order coding error. When there are first-order coding errors, only MEAMMS is able to identify them. Finally, this shows that MEAMMS is able to identify a larger set of coding errors while still being able to identify the coding errors MMS is able to identify.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using an Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Characterize Earth System Model Errors: Application of SHAP Analysis to Modeling Lightning Flash Occurrence

Abstract Computational models of the Earth System are critical tools for modern scientific inquiry. Efforts toward evaluating and improving errors in representations of physical and chemical processes in these large computational systems are commonly stymied by highly nonlinear and complex error behavior. Recent work has shown that these errors can be effectively predicted using modern Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) techniques. In this work, we go beyond these previous studies to apply an explainable A.I. technique to not only predict model errors but also move toward understanding the underlying reasons for successful error prediction. We use XGBoost classification trees and SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis to explore the errors in the prediction of lightning occurrence in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, a widely used Earth System Model. This explainable error prediction system can effectively predict the model error and indicates that the errors are strongly related to convective processes and the characteristics of the land surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Variational Method for Analyzing Vortex Flows in Radar-Scanned Tornadic Mesocyclones. Part III: Sensitivities to Vortex Center Location Errors

Abstract When the vortex center location is estimated from a radar-scanned tornadic mesocyclone, the estimated location is not error-free. This raises an important issue concerning the sensitivities of analyzed vortex flow (VF) fields by the VF-Var (formulated in Part I of this paper series and tested in Part II) to vortex center location errors, denoted by Δ x c . Numerical experiments are performed to address this issue with the following findings: The increase of |Δ x c | from zero to a half of vortex core radius causes large analysis error increases in the vortex core but the increased analysis errors decrease rapidly away from the vortex core especially for dual-Doppler analyses. The increased horizontal-velocity errors in the vortex core are mainly in the Δ x c -normal component, because this component varies much more rapidly than the other component along the Δ x c direction in the vortex core. The vertical variations of Δ x c distort the vertical correlation structure of Δ x c -dislocated VF-dependent background error covariance, which can increase the analysis errors in the vortex core. The dual-Doppler analyses have adequate accuracies outside the vortex core even when |Δ x c | increases to a half of vortex core radius, while single-Doppler analyses can also have adequate accuracies outside the vortex core mainly for the single-Doppler-observed velocity component. The sensitivities to Δ x c are largely unaffected by the vortex slanting. The above findings are important and useful for assessing the accuracies of analyzed VFs for real radar-observed tornadic mesocyclones. Significance Statement When the vortex center location is estimated from a radar-scanned tornadic mesocyclone, the estimated location is not error-free. This raises an issue concerning the sensitivity of analyzed vortex flow (VF) by the VF-Var (formulated in Part I of this paper series and tested with simulated radar observations in Part II) to vortex center location error. This issue and its required investigations are very important for the VF-Var to be applied to real radar-observed tornadic mesocyclones, especially in an operational setting with the WSR-88Ds. Numerical experiments are performed to address this issue. The findings from these experiments are important and useful for assessing the accuracies of VF-Var analyzed VF fields for real radar-observed tornadic mesocyclones.

Xu, Qin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rare events and Griffiths phases in topological quantum error correction

The performance of quantum error correcting (QEC) codes is often studied under the assumption of spatiotemporally uniform error rates. On the other hand, experimental implementations almost always produce heterogeneous error rates, in either space or time, as a result of effects such as imperfect fabrication and/or cosmic rays. It is therefore important to understand if and how their presence can affect the performance of QEC in qualitative ways. Here, in this work, we study the effects of nonuniform error rates in the representative examples of the 1D repetition code and the 2D toric code, focusing on when they have extended spatiotemporal correlations; these may arise, for instance, from rare events (such as cosmic rays) that temporarily elevate error rates over the entire code patch. These effects can be described in the corresponding statistical mechanics models for decoding, where long-range correlations in the error rates lead to extended rare regions of weaker coupling. For the 1D repetition code where the rare regions are linear, we find two distinct decodable phases: a conventional ordered phase in which logical failure rates decay exponentially with the code distance, and a rare-region dominated Griffiths phase in which failure rates are parametrically larger and decay as a stretched exponential. In particular, the latter phase is present when the error rates in the rare regions are above the bulk threshold. For the 2D toric code where the rare regions are planar, we find no decodable Griffiths phase: rare events which boost error rates above the bulk threshold lead to an asymptotic loss of threshold and failure to decode. Unpacking the failure mechanism implies that techniques for suppressing extended sequences of repeated rare events (which, without intervention, will be statistically present with high probability) will be crucial for QEC with the toric code.

classical statistical mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Error-correcting Bacon-Shor code with continuous measurement of noncommuting operators

We analyze the continuous operation of the nine-qubit error correcting Bacon-Shor code with all noncommuting gauge operators measured at the same time. The error syndromes are continuously monitored using cross-correlations of sets of three measurement signals. We calculate the logical error rates due to $X$, $Y$ and $Z$ errors in the physical qubits and compare the continuous implementation with the discrete operation of the code. We find that both modes of operation exhibit similar performances when the measurement strength from continuous measurements is sufficiently strong. Here, we also estimate the value of the crossover error rate of the physical qubits, below which continuous error correction gives smaller logical error rates. Continuous operation has the advantage of passive monitoring of errors and avoids the need for additional circuits involving ancilla qubits.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Interplay between Hardware Errors and User Job Characteristics on the Titan Supercomputer

Designing dependable supercomputers begins with an understanding of errors in real-world, large-scale systems. The Titan supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory provides a unique opportunity to investigate errors when an actual system is actively used by multiple concurrent users and workloads from diverse domains at varying scales. This study presents a thorough analysis of 6, 908, 497 hardware errors from 18, 688 compute nodes of Titan for 312, 215 user jobs over a 3-year time period. Through careful joining of two system logs – the Machine Check Architecture (MCA) log and the job scheduler log – we show the correlated pattern of hardware errors for each job and user, in addition to individual descriptive statistics of errors, jobs, and users. Since the majority of hardware errors are memory errors, this study also shows the importance of error correcting in memory systems.

Lim, Seung-Hwan↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Impedance Fault Detection Through Quasi-Static State Estimation: A Parameter Error Modeling Approach

This paper presents a model for detecting high impedance faults using parameter error modeling and a two step per-phase weighted-least squares state estimation process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of Phasor Measurement Units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through ?2 Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error. Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the state estimation process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to high-impedance fault identification. Further, this error spread across measurement functions related to the fault will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the IEEE 33-Bus Distribution System along with the proposed model in Simulink.

Cooper, Austin↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Optimization for Relative-Error-Bounded Lossy Compression on Scientific Data

Scientific simulations in high-performance computing (HPC) environments generate vast volume of data, which may cause a severe I/O bottleneck at runtime and a huge burden on storage space for postanalysis. Unlike traditional data reduction schemes such as deduplication or lossless compression, not only can error-controlled lossy compression significantly reduce the data size but it also holds the promise to satisfy user demand on error control. Pointwise relative error bounds (i.e., compression errors depends on the data values) are widely used by many scientific applications with lossy compression since error control can adapt to the error bound in the dataset automatically. Pointwise relative-error-bounded compression is complicated and time consuming. In this article, we develop efficient precomputation-based mechanisms based on the SZ lossy compression framework. Our mechanisms can avoid costly logarithmic transformation and identify quantization factor values via a fast table lookup, greatly accelerating the relative-error-bounded compression with excellent compression ratios. In addition, we reduce traversing operations for Huffman decoding, significantly accelerating the decompression process in SZ. Experiments with eight well-known real-world scientific simulation datasets show that our solution can improve the compression and decompression rates (i.e., the speed) by about 40 and 80 p, respectively, in most of cases, making our designed lossy compression strategy the best-in-class solution in most cases.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Straightness Error Measurement Based on Optical Fiber Fabry–Pérot Interferometer Monitoring Technique

Abstract In this research, we propose an Error Separation Technique (EST) based on optical fiber sensors for on-machine straightness error measurement. Two fiber optic Fabry–Pérot interferometers have been developed serving as two displacement sensors. The displacement distance is computed according to the reflected spectrum from interferometers, which can achieve a sub-micrometer resolution. The two-point method has been employed to separate the straightness error of the slides and the profile error of a fine-polished standard block. The spacing distance between two interferometers is determined by the diameter of optical fibers so that the EST's resolution has the potential to reach the sub-millimeter scale. In the experiment, the straightness error has been measured on a commercially available computer numerical control machine tool, and the measurement has been conducted on its x-axis. The spacing distance between two optical fiber sensors is 1.5 mm which equals the EST's resolution along the machine tool's x-axis. The separated profile error of the measured standard block is around 30 µm which has been verified by a high precision Coordinate Measurement Machine (CMM). The magnitude of the separated straightness error is around 40 µm. This technique is flexible and simple to be conducted, which can contribute to the micro-machine tool calibration and other straightness error applications.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gleipnir: toward practical error analysis for Quantum programs

Practical error analysis is essential for the design, optimization, and evaluation of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum(NISQ) computing. However, bounding errors in quantum programs is a grand challenge, because the effects of quantum errors depend on exponentially large quantum states. In this work, we present Gleipnir, a novel methodology toward practically computing verified error bounds in quantum programs. Gleipnir introduces the (ρ,δ)-diamond norm, an error metric constrained by a quantum predicate consisting of the approximate state ρ and its distance δ to the ideal state ρ. This predicate (ρ,δ) can be computed adaptively using tensor networks based on the Matrix Product States. Gleipnir features a lightweight logic for reasoning about error bounds in noisy quantum programs, based on the (ρ,δ)-diamond norm metric. Furthermore, our experimental results show that Gleipnir is able to efficiently generate tight error bounds for real-world quantum programs with 10 to 100 qubits, and can be used to evaluate the error mitigation performance of quantum compiler transformations.

Tao, Runzhou↗

DOE OSTI2020

High Order Implicit Residual-Based Spatial Discretization Error Estimation for S N Neutron Transport

This work demonstrates our novel residual source spatial discretization error estimator (LeR/TEAD) for a DGFEM-1 discretization and assesses it along with two contemporary estimators, Ragusa and Wang's h -refinement estimator (RW) and Duo, Azmy, and Zikatanov's explicit residual-based estimator (DAZ), on a suite of Method of Manufactured Solutions (MMS) 2D problems and three realistic problem geometries. LeR/TE-AD is attractive because it directly estimates the local error in the angular flux, as opposed to a mere indicator of the error's behavior, on the same mesh and method order as the original numerical solution, thus typically being less computationally intensive than a refinement-based method. On the MMS suite, LeR/TE-AD consistently displayed a reduced performance versus its DGFEM-0 results in terms of accuracy and precision metrics, though it was not typically grossly inaccurate. This is attributed to the irregularities in the true solution across singular characteristics limiting the local accuracy of the numerical flux solution, leading to poor derivative approximations used in the residual approximations. The error transport problem then spreads the error in the residual to nearby cells, causing a greater degree of imprecision that did not afflict DAZ or RW. In testing the estimators on realistic problem geometries, however, LeR/TE-AD fared better. In practice, the true error is much larger in non-idealized geometries like in MMS, and a superlinear true solution means that RW and DAZ are not beneficially biased for DGFEM-1 error estimation. LeR/TE-AD was typically first or second in accuracy, primarily competing with RW, but the latter usually consumed 2-4 times the computational time as LeR/TE-AD, and requires a solution with four times as many unknowns. Furthermore, RW and LeR/TE-AD can be used to compute direct estimates of the error in any quantity of interest that is based on the angular ux solution, such as the fission rate density in a fuel pin, whereas DAZ requires a heuristic extension due to its norm-based nature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Numerical coupling of aerosol emissions, dry removal, and turbulent mixing in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1) – Part 2: A semi-discrete error analysis framework for assessing coupling schemes

Abstract. Part 1 (Wan et al., 2024) of this study discusses the motivation and empirical evaluation of a revision to the aerosol-related numerical process coupling in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (EAMv1) to address the previously reported issue of strong sensitivity of the simulated dust aerosol lifetime and dry removal rate to the model's vertical resolution. This paper complements that empirical justification of the revised scheme with a mathematical justification leveraging a semi-discrete analysis framework for assessing the splitting error of process coupling methods. The framework distinguishes the error due to numerical splitting from the error due to the time integration method(s) used for each individual process. Such a distinction results in a framework that provides an intuitive understanding of the causes of the splitting error. The application of this framework to the dust life cycle in EAMv1 confirms (i) that the original EAMv1 scheme artificially strengthens the effect of dry removal processes and (ii) that the revised splitting reduces that artificial strengthening. While the error analysis framework is presented in the context of the dust life cycle in EAMv1, the framework can be broadly leveraged to evaluate process coupling schemes, both in other physical problems and for any number of processes. This framework will be particularly powerful when the various process implementations support a variety of time integration approaches. Whereas traditional local truncation error approaches require separate consideration of each combination of time integration methods, this framework enables evaluation of coupling schemes independent of particular time integration approaches for each process while still allowing for the incorporation of these specific time integration errors if so desired. The framework also explains how the splitting error terms result from (i) the integration of individual processes in isolation from other processes and (ii) the choices of input state and time step size for the isolated integration of processes. Such a perspective has the potential for the rapid development of alternative coupling approaches that utilize knowledge both about the desired accuracy and about the computational costs of individual processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

TQEA: Temporal Quantum Error Analysis

For the last few years quantum computers have captured researchers’ interest in solving complicated problems in finance, chemistry, machine learning, and many other NP problems. Quantum computing benefits from parallel computation, entanglement, and calculation speedup compared to classical computing. Even though the operations and number of qubits in quantum computers are limited, previous research showed that using quantum computers can be beneficial. These benefits gained researchers’ interest to work on the improvement of quantum computers and overcome the limitations by building more advanced quantum computers with fault tolerance capability, more physical qubits, and better operational gates. In practice, Quantum applications would be translated into Quantum Circuits and each circuit can contain one or many entanglements (s), single qubits operations, and readouts. The importance of running Quantum applications with controlled errors or without errors is critical to the desired result from Quantum readout. In this paper, we study the characteristics of superconducting quantum machines along with the previously proposed methods of Quantum error detection/correction and in order to build a better error model we propose a temporal method for analyzing the the behavior of qubits errors (T1 and T2), frequency of operation, entanglement errors, and readout errors. In order to detect and predict the behavior of each machine, we use simple exponential smoothing analysis on heuristic calibration data. Finally, based on observation, we show that based on frequency, qubits, readout and single operation errors we can build a temporal based model to study and predict the outcome of runs on each Quantum machine.

Baheri, Betis↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time-series machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. Freno and Carlberg (2019) to dynamical systems. The proposed Time-Series Machine-Learning Error Modeling (T-MLEM) method constructs a regression model that maps features – which comprise error indicators that are derived from standard a posteriori error-quantification techniques – to a random variable for the approximate-solution error at each time instance. The proposed framework considers a wide range of candidate features, regression methods, and additive noise models. We consider primarily recursive regression techniques developed for time-series modeling, including both classical time-series models (e.g., autoregressive models) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), but also analyze standard non-recursive regression techniques (e.g., feed-forward neural networks) for comparative purposes. Finally, numerical experiments conducted on multiple benchmark problems illustrate that the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is a type of RNN, outperforms other methods and yields substantial improvements in error predictions over traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Residual-based error correction for neural operator accelerated infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

We explore using neural operators, or neural network representations of nonlinear maps between function spaces, to accelerate infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) with models governed by nonlinear parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Neural operators have gained significant attention in recent years for their ability to approximate the parameter-to-solution maps defined by PDEs using as training data solutions of PDEs at a limited number of parameter samples. The computational cost of BIPs can be drastically reduced if the large number of PDE solves required for posterior characterization are replaced with evaluations of trained neural operators. However, reducing error in the resulting BIP solutions via reducing the approximation error of the neural operators in training can be challenging and unreliable. We provide an a priori error bound result that implies certain BIPs can be ill-conditioned to the approximation error of neural operators, thus leading to inaccessible accuracy requirements in training. To reliably deploy neural operators in BIPs, we consider a strategy for enhancing the performance of neural operators: correcting the prediction of a trained neural operator by solving a linear variational problem based on the PDE residual. We show that a trained neural operator with error correction can achieve a quadratic reduction of its approximation error, all while retaining substantial computational speedups of posterior sampling when models are governed by highly nonlinear PDEs. The strategy is applied to two numerical examples of BIPs based on a nonlinear reaction–diffusion problem and deformation of hyperelastic materials. We demonstrate that posterior representations of the two BIPs produced using trained neural operators are greatly and consistently enhanced by error correction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Error-Bounded Approximate Computing, with an Application to Dot Products

Approximate computing techniques, which trade off the computation accuracy of an algorithm for better performance and energy efficiency, have been successful in reducing computation and power costs in several domains. However, error sensitive applications in high-performance computing are unable to benefit from existing approximate computing strategies that are not developed with guaranteed error bounds. While approximate computing techniques can be developed for individual high-performance computing applications by domain specialists, this often requires additional theoretical analysis and potentially extensive software modification. Hence, the development of low-level error-bounded approximate computing strategies that can be introduced into any high-performance computing application without requiring additional analysis or significant software alterations is desirable. In this paper, we provide a contribution in this direction by proposing a general framework for designing error-bounded approximate computing strategies and apply it to the dot product kernel to develop \bf qdot---an error-bounded approximate dot product kernel. Following the introduction of qdot, here we perform a theoretical analysis that yields a deterministic bound on the relative approximation error introduced by qdot. Empirical tests are performed to illustrate the tightness of the derived error bound and to demonstrate the effectiveness of qdot on a synthetic dataset, as well as two scientific benchmarks---the conjugate gradient (CG) and power methods. In some instances, using qdot for the dot products in CG can result in many components being quantized to half precision without increasing the iteration count required for convergence to the same solution as CG using a double precision dot product.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Better Than Worst-Case Decoding for Quantum Error Correction

The overheads of classical decoding for quantum error correction in cryogenic quantum systems grow rapidly with the number of logical qubits and their correction code distance. Decoding at room temperature is bottlenecked by refrigerator I/O bandwidth while cryogenic on-chip decoding is limited by area/power/thermal budget. To overcome these overheads, we are motivated by the observation that in the common case (over 90% of the time), error correction 'syndromes' are fairly trivial with high redundancy / sparsity, since the error correction codes are over-provisioned to be able to correct for uncommon worst-case complex scenarios (to ensure substantially low logical error rates). If suitably exploited, these trivial scenarios can be handled with insignificant overhead, thereby alleviating any bottlenecks towards handling the worst-case scenarios by state-of-the-art means. Here, we propose Better Than Worst-Case Decoding for Quantum Error Correction, targeting cryogenic quantum systems and Surface Code, consisting of: On-chip Clique Decoder: An extremely lightweight decoder for correcting trivial common-case errors, designed for the cryogenic domain. The decoder is implemented and evaluated for SFQ logic. Statistical Off-chip Bandwidth Allocation: A statistical confidence-based technique for allocation of off-chip decoding bandwidth, to efficiently handle the rare complex decodes that are not covered by the Clique Decoder. Decode-Overflow Execution Stalling: A method to stall circuit execution, for the worst-case scenarios in which the provisioned off-chip bandwidth is insufficient to complete all requested off-chip decodes. In all, BTWC decoding achieves 70-99+% off-chip bandwidth elimination across a range of logical and physical error rates, without significantly sacrificing the accuracy of a state-of-the-art off-chip decoder. Further, it achieves 10-1000x bandwidth reduction over prior bandwidth reduction techniques, as well as 15-37x resource overhead reduction compared to prior on-chip decoding.

cryogenic optimization↗