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At least 73 records · Page 4

Adaptive workflow for simulation of RF heaters

Accurate RF (Radio Frequency) simulations of fusion systems like ITER require the definition of high-fidelity analysis geometries that include detailed antenna, reactor wall, and physics regions. Here, this paper will describe a workflow for the execution of adaptive high-performance simulations of RF fusion systems. In this workflow, the simulation input consists of a CAD model attributed with the needed analysis attributes. The analysis mesh is automatically generated and the analysis steps are executed using the time-harmonic Maxwell's equations solved using high-order Nédélec finite elements. A patch recovery-based error estimator is used to drive a conforming mesh adaptation procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

tLaSDI: Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

Here we propose a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying UAS Observation Error Variance Used in Data Assimilation Systems and Its Impact on Predictive Skill

Observation error determines the weights of the observations and background state used in data assimilation to generate analyses. Quantifying observation error is critical for the optimal assimilation of observational data sets. Uncrewed Aircraft System (UAS) observations have shown potential benefits in filling observational gaps in the lower atmosphere; however, characterization of their error characteristics has been limited. To optimize the use of UAS observations in numerical weather prediction, UAS observation error is estimated based on the 3‐cornered hat diagnostic approach which uses three independent estimates of the atmospheric state. This approach is applied to data from the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation‐a Remotely‐piloted Aircraft Team Experiment field campaign using collocated UAS and rawinsonde observations along with output from a set of convection‐permitting model simulations. The estimated observation error values for UAS temperature, wind, and relative humidity measurements were found to be only weakly dependent on height AGL with mean values equal to 0.5°C, 0.8 m s −1 , and 3%, respectively. Only the newly estimated observation error for temperature differed from that previously used to assimilate commercial aircraft observations into global models (1.0°C). However, using this reduced temperature observation error produced more accurate mesoscale analyses and forecasts of both terrain‐driven flows and convection initiation generated by colliding outflow boundaries within the San Luis Valley of Colorado.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial resolution of different discretizations over long-time for the Dirac equation with small potentials

In this report we compare the long-time error bounds and spatial resolution of finite difference methods with different spatial discretizations for the Dirac equation with small electromagnetic potentials characterized by $\varepsilon \in (0, 1]$ a dimensionless parameter. We begin with the simple and widely used finite difference time domain (FDTD) methods, and establish rigorous error bounds of them, which are valid up to the time at $O(1/\varepsilon)$. In the error estimates, we pay particular attention to how the errors depend explicitly on the mesh size $h$ and time step $\tau$ as well as the small parameter $\varepsilon$. Based on the results, in order to obtain "correct" numerical solutions up to the time at $O(1/\varepsilon)$, the $\varepsilon$-scalability (or meshing strategy requirement) of the FDTD methods should be taken as $h = O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$ and $\tau = O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$. To improve the spatial resolution capacity, we apply the Fourier spectral method to discretize the Dirac equation in space. Error bounds of the resulting finite difference Fourier pseudospectral (FDFP) methods show that they exhibit uniform spatial errors in the long-time regime, which are optimal in space as suggested by the Shannon's sampling theorem. Extensive numerical results are reported to confirm the error bounds and demonstrate that they are sharp.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optimal Power Flow With State Estimation in the Loop for Distribution Networks

Here in this article, we propose a framework for running optimal control-estimation synthesis in distribution networks. Our approach combines a primal-dual gradient-based optimal power flow solver with a state estimation feedback loop based on a limited set of sensors for system monitoring, instead of assuming exact knowledge of all states. The estimation algorithm reduces uncertainty on unmeasured grid states based on certain online state measurements and noisy "pseudomeasurements." We analyze the convergence of the proposed algorithm and quantify the statistical estimation errors based on a weighted least-squares estimator. The numerical results on a 4521-node network demonstrate that this approach can scale to extremely large networks and provide robustness to both large pseudomeasurement variability and inherent sensor measurement noise.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Computationally efficient CFD prediction of bubbly flow using physics-guided deep learning

To realize efficient computational fluid dynamics (CFD) prediction of two-phase flow, a multi-scale framework was proposed in this paper by applying a physics-guided data-driven approach. Instrumental to this framework, Feature Similarity Measurement (FSM) technique was developed for error estimation in two-phase flow simulation using coarse-mesh CFD, to achieve a comparable accuracy as fine-mesh simulations with fast-running feature. In this work, by defining physics-guided parameters and variable gradients as physical features, FSM has the capability to capture the underlying local patterns in the coarse-mesh CFD simulation. Massive low-fidelity data and respective high-fidelity data are used to explore the underlying information relevant to the main simulation errors and the effects of phenomenological scaling. By learning from previous simulation data, a surrogate model using deep feedforward neural network (DFNN) can be developed and trained to estimate the simulation error of coarse-mesh CFD. In a demonstration case of two-phase bubbly flow, the DFNN model well captured and corrected the unphysical “peaks” in the velocity and void fraction profiles near the wall in the coarse-mesh configuration, even for extrapolative predictions. The research documented supports the feasibility of the physics-guided deep learning methods for coarse mesh CFD simulations which has a potential for the efficient industrial design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Sensitivity of back‐projection algorithm (BPA) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image formation to initial position, velocity, and attitude navigation errors

Abstract The Back‐Projection Algorithm (BPA) is a time‐domain‐matched filtering technique to form synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. To produce high‐quality BPA images, precise navigation data for the radar platform must be known. Errors in position, velocity, or attitude result in improperly formed images that are corrupted by shifting and blurring. The contribution of this paper is the development of analytical expressions that characterise the relationship between navigation errors and image formation errors from an inertial navigation point of view, where trajectory estimation errors in position, velocity, and attitude propagate through time and cause compounding errors in the vehicle state vector. These analytical expressions are verified via simulated image formation and real‐data image formation.

Lindstrom, Colton↗

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Algebra of Machine Learners with Applications

Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly being applied to solve complex, data-driven problems in diverse areas, by exploiting the physical laws derived from first principles such as thermal hydraulics and the abstract laws developed recently for data and computing infrastructures. These physical and abstract laws encapsulate, typically in compact algebraic forms, the critical knowledge that complements data-driven ML models. We present a unified perspective of these laws and ML methods using an abstract algebra (A;⊕,Ⓧ), wherein the performance estimation and classification tasks are characterized by the additive ⊕ operations, and the diagnosis, reconstruction, and optimization tasks are characterized by the difference Ⓧ operations. This abstraction provides ML codes and their performance characterizations that are transferable across different areas. We describe practical applications of these abstract operations using examples of throughput profile estimation tasks in data transport infrastructures, and power-level and sensor error estimation tasks in nuclear reactor systems.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Eco-PiNN: A Physics-informed Neural Network for Eco-toll Estimation

The eco-toll estimation problem quantifies the expected environmental cost (e.g., energy consumption, exhaust emissions) for a vehicle to travel along a path. This problem is important for societal applications such as eco-routing, which aims to find paths with the lowest exhaust emissions or energy need. The challenges of this problem are threefold: (1) the dependence of a vehicle's eco-toll on its physical parameters; (2) the lack of access to data with eco-toll information; and (3) the influence of contextual information (i.e. the connections of adjacent segments in the path) on the eco-toll of road segments. Prior work on eco-toll estimation has mostly relied on pure data-driven approaches and has high estimation errors given the limited training data. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Eco-toll estimation Physics-informed Neural Network framework (Eco-PiNN) using three novel ideas, namely, (1) a physics-informed decoder that integrates the physical laws governing vehicle dynamics into the network, (2) an attention-based contextual information encoder, and (3) a physics-informed regularization to reduce overfitting. Experiments on real-world heavy-duty truck data show that the proposed method can greatly improve the accuracy of eco-toll estimation compared with state-of-the-art methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impacts of spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in a regionally refined global aerosol–climate model

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosol and their precursors are often prescribed in global aerosol models. Most of these emissions are spatially heterogeneous at model grid scales. When remapped from low-resolution data, the spatial heterogeneity in emissions can be lost, leading to large errors in the simulation. It can also cause the conservation problem if non-conservative remapping is used. The default anthropogenic emission treatment in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is subject to both problems. In this study, we introduce a revised emission treatment for the E3SM Atmosphere Model (EAM) that ensures conservation of mass fluxes and preserves the original emission heterogeneity at the model-resolved grid scale. We assess the error estimates associated with the default emission treatment and the impact of improved heterogeneity and mass conservation in both globally uniform standard-resolution (∼ 165 km) and regionally refined high-resolution (∼ 42 km) simulations. The default treatment incurs significant errors near the surface, particularly over sharp emission gradient zones. Much larger errors are observed in high-resolution simulations. It substantially underestimates the aerosol burden, surface concentration, and aerosol sources over highly polluted regions, while it overestimates these quantities over less-polluted adjacent areas. Large errors can persist at higher elevation for daily mean estimates, which can affect aerosol extinction profiles and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We find that the revised treatment significantly improves the accuracy of the aerosol emissions from surface and elevated sources near sharp spatial gradient regions, with significant improvement in the spatial heterogeneity and variability of simulated surface concentration in high-resolution simulations. In the next-generation E3SM running at convection-permitting scales where the resolved spatial heterogeneity is significantly increased, the revised emission treatment is expected to better represent the aerosol emissions as well as their lifecycle and impacts on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of the IRI-2016 model with Indian NavIC data for future navigation applications

The position accuracy of Navigation with Indian Constellation (NavIC) system is affected by several sources of errors. Among them, the Ionospheric Time Delay (ITD) error is the most predominant one which depends upon the total electron content (TEC) present in the ionosphere. The ITD variations are more intense over low latitude regions due to the equatorial anomaly effects. Hence, modelling of ITD error is necessary. The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2016 model is one of the standard global ionospheric models to estimate the Vertical TEC (VTEC). This paper discusses about the VTEC deviations due to the IRI-2016 model over low latitude Hyderabad station, Indian region using NavIC, Global Positioning System and Global Navigation Satellite System signals at corresponding Ionospheric Pierce Point latitude and longitudes for all months and various Kp indices during the low solar activity year 2017. In this work, cross correlation coefficient, the metric norm (L2N), Symmetric Kullbacke Leibler Distance metrics are used to evaluate the performance of IRI-2016 model TEC with NavIC, GPS and GLONASS data. From the results, it is found that TEC predicted by the IRI-2016 model produced smaller estimation errors with NavIC data over Indian region. The obtained results will be helpful for future updates of IRI model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Automated label flows for excited states of correlation functions in lattice gauge theory

Extracting excited states from lattice gauge theory correlation functions can be achieved through $χ^2$ minimization fits or algebraic approaches such as the variational method and Prony's method. Performing any kind of error analysis often leads to overlapping confidence regions of model parameters, even when the spectrum is not particularly dense. To correctly estimate errors, one must beware of mislabeling the states. In this work, we provide an algorithm that we call automated label flows which consistently and systematically identifies a deterministic labeling of states. This is a black-box approach in the sense that it gives a sensible set of labels without user guidance. Further, as an example, we pair one black box method with another, analyzing a lattice correlation function from real data using automated label flows in the context of Prony's method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Resilient State Recovery Using Prior Measurement Support Information

Resilient state recovery of cyber-physical systems has attracted much research attention due to the unique challenges posed by the tight coupling between communication, computation, and the underlying physics of such systems. By modeling attacks as additive adversary signals to a sparse subset of measurements, this resilient recovery problem can be formulated as an error correction problem. To achieve exact state recovery, most existing results require less than 50% of the measurement nodes to be compromised, which limits the resiliency of the estimators. In this paper, we show that observer resiliency can be further improved by incorporating data-driven prior information. Here, we provide an analytical bridge between the precision of prior information and the resiliency of the estimator. By quantifying the relationship between the estimation error of the weighted ℓ 1 observer and the precision of the support prior, this quantified relationship provides guidance for the estimator’s weight design to achieve optimal resiliency. Several numerical simulations and an application case study are presented to validate the theoretical claims.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Covariance operator estimation: Sparsity, lengthscale, and ensemble Kalman filters

This paper investigates covariance operator estimation via thresholding. For Gaussian random fields with approximately sparse covariance operators, we establish non-asymptotic bounds on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of the field. We prove that thresholded estimators enjoy an exponential improvement in sample complexity compared with the standard sample covariance estimator if the field has a small correlation lengthscale. As an application of the theory, we study thresholded estimation of covariance operators within ensemble Kalman filters.

Covariance operator estimation↗

Fe Kα XANES, Fe Kβ HERFD XANES and EPMA flank method determinations of the oxidation state of Fe in garnet

The ferric to total iron ratios (Fe 3+ /ΣFe) of garnets can be paired with thermodynamic mineral activity models to quantify the oxygen fugacity of garnet-bearing rocks. However, techniques with a high analytical and spatial resolution are necessary to distinguish differences in garnet Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios at the percent level and to accurately measure garnets that are zoned or contain inclusions. We acquired conventional Fe Kα and high-resolution energy fluorescence detection (HERFD) Fe Kβ X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra and electron microprobe flank method analyses on a suite of 27 peridotitic and eclogitic garnets with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios previously determined by Mössbauer spectroscopy to evaluate the precision of each technique. We examined variations in the energy and intensity of three XANES spectral features as a function of Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios: 1) the intensity ratio of two-post edge features (I-ratio; Fe Kα only); 2) the energy of the Fe edge at 90% normalized intensity (E 0.9 ; Fe Kα only) and 3) the pre-edge centroid energy (Fe Kα and HERFD Fe Kβ). In accordance with previous work, we find the energies of garnet pre-edge centroids are relatively insensitive to Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios. The I-ratios of peridotitic and eclogitic garnets are offset from each other at low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (≤0.13); I-ratio garnet XANES calibrations are composition-specific. The E 0.9 feature is independent of garnet major element composition in spectra that have been corrected for the effects of self-absorption. We produce two Fe Kα garnet XANES calibrations based on variations in the E0.9 feature; one calibration with all garnet reference materials included (Fe 3+ /ΣFe up to 1.0; “all garnet calibration”) and another calibration specific to garnets with low Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios (“low ferric calibration”). Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios calculated from the mean of up to 25 flank method measurements on eight garnet reference materials fall within 4% absolute of a one-to-one correlation with Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios measured by Mössbauer. The standard error of the mean Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio calculated from flank method approaches the Mössbauer-determined Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratio within estimated error (3%) after three analyses. Flank method precision is enhanced at higher beam current; however, the precision of the flank method does not approach the precision of XANES under any microprobe analytical condition tested here. Garnet reference materials detailed here are available by request to the Smithsonian Institution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimation of sensor measurement errors in reactor coolant systems using multi-sensor fusion

A nuclear power plant is typically instrumented with a variety of sensors to continually monitor its variables, and their sensor’s measurements may be used to assess the plant state and initiate safety actions, if needed. Errors in sensor measurements, due to factors such as calibration drifts, critically affect such state assessments. Here, we address a problem of estimating sensor errors using physics-informed machine learning methods that use measurements collected under known plant conditions. For a given sensor, we propose an information fusion method that uses measurements from other sensors to estimate its output assuming it is error-free and provides its difference from an actual measurement as an error estimate. We present the ensemble of trees and support vector machine fusers, and evaluate their performance using measurements collected over an emulated test loop of a pressurized water reactor. The plant variables are related to each other through the underlying physical laws under inertial constraints that place bounds on their derivatives, which analytically justify the applicability of machine learning methods for computing these fusers. Under twenty scenarios, we assess their sensor error estimates for pressure sensors of the heat exchanger of a reactor’s primary coolant system. Multiple types of errors are captured by both fusers under externally induced calibration drifts, blockages, minor leaks and air gaps in sensing lines, and electromagnetic interference; the root mean square error of the estimation of error is under 2.2% percent of the maximum measurement. We present generalization equations, in the framework of statistical learning theory, for these methods that characterize the confidence probability that the estimation error is bounded by a specified parameter in future test scenarios.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Red–green–blue Boolean image analysis of particulate debris laced with luminescent tracers

Abstract Particulate mass estimation from 3-pixel images is desirable in many fields. Red–green–blue (RGB) analysis and Boolean logic were shown to estimate the mass of luminescent tracers in microscopic images. With a controlled background intensity, an estimation error of 1.8 to 3.5% was achieved; in uncontrolled backgrounds, an error of about 18% was achieved. RGB analysis is a valuable tool for spatial location of particulates. This work shows it is possible to estimate the particulate mass in an image and gives RGB an extension into mass quantification that has far-reaching impacts in fields involving the fate and transport of particulate matter. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗