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At least 73 records · Page 4

Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO 2 emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S.

The electric power sector in the United States faces many challenges related to climate change. On the demand side, climate change could shift demand patterns due to increased air temperatures. On the supply side, climate change could lead to deratings of thermal units due to changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability. Past studies have typically analyzed these risks separately. Here, we developed an integrated, multimodel framework to analyze how compounding risks of climate-change impacts on demand and supply affect long-term planning decisions in the power system. In the southeast U.S., we found that compounding climate-change impacts could result in a 35% increase in installed capacity by 2050 relative to the reference case. Participation of renewables, particularly solar, in the fleet increased, driven mostly by the expected increase in summertime peak demand. Such capacity requirements would increase investment costs by approximately 31 billion (USD 2015) over the next 30 years, compared to the reference case. These changes in investment decisions align with carbon emission mitigation strategies, highlighting how adaptation and mitigation strategies can converge.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Assessing Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Achieving Sustainability Goals by Projecting the Sustainable Agriculture Matrix Into the Future

The concept of sustainability inherently spans multiple spatial scales, sectors, variables, and time horizons. This study links a recently developed method of assessing present-day agricultural sustainability across environmental, economic, and social dimensions with a process-based integrated assessment model, in order to allow forward-looking analysis of sustainability by region and scenario. The sustainable agriculture matrix estimates present-day agricultural sustainability at the national level using 18 indicator variables, of which this study estimates nine to the year 2100, using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model. Scenarios include a reference scenario, and scenarios that apply the following measures, both individually and in combination, that are thought to improve sustainability: yield intensification, transition toward more plant-based (“flexitarian”) diets, and economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. The scenarios illustrate considerable complexity and tradeoffs inherent to efforts to improve agricultural sustainability in all regions globally. For example, yield intensification typically increases nitrogen pollution, flexitarian diets can reduce agricultural output, and greenhouse gas mitigation efforts may either increase deforestation or crowd out crop and livestock production due to consequent bioenergy demands. However, there is considerable inter-regional heterogeneity in the responses, and the importance of such secondary responses also differs by region. The analysis and post-processing methods developed in this study allow quantification and visualization of the absolute and relative magnitude of the tradeoffs between agricultural sustainability indicator variables across regions, time periods, and scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe 21st-century ocean acidification in Antarctic Marine Protected Areas

Antarctic coastal waters are home to several established or proposed Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) supporting exceptional biodiversity. Despite being threatened by anthropogenic climate change, uncertainties remain surrounding the future ocean acidification (OA) of these waters. Here we present 21st-century projections of OA in Antarctic MPAs under four emission scenarios using a high-resolution ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model with realistic ice-shelf geometry. By 2100, we project pH declines of up to 0.36 (total scale) for the top 200 m. Vigorous vertical mixing of anthropogenic carbon produces severe OA throughout the water column in coastal waters of proposed and existing MPAs. Consequently, end-of-century aragonite undersaturation is ubiquitous under the three highest emission scenarios. Given the cumulative threat to marine ecosystems by environmental change and activities such as fishing, our findings call for strong emission-mitigation efforts and further management strategies to reduce pressures on ecosystems, such as the continuation and expansion of Antarctic MPAs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Oxygen Solubility in Aqueous Amine Solvents with Common Additives Used for CO 2 Chemical Absorption

Major sources of anthropogenic CO 2 are power generation and transportation industries where researcher continue to explore CO 2 emission mitigation strategies as applied to these CO 2 sources through carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS). The most mature CO 2 capture technology is post-combustion carbon capture (PCCC) using aqueous amine solutions/solvents, however solvent degradation and regeneration costs are slowing the widespread adoption of PCCC. Solvent degradation of the aqueous amine solutions is mainly caused from the temperature gradient between the absorber and stripper columns and common flue gas components such as SOx, NOx, and oxygen (O 2 ). The two main classifications of solvent degradation are thermal degradation, occurring when the amine reacts with itself at elevated temperatures and anaerobic conditions and oxidative degradation. Oxidative degradation reactions can occur from oxygen mass transfer and free radical oxidation. Metals, such as iron from the corrosion of steel structures used in industrial applications such as PCCC, can help to catalyze these reactions. Various oxidative degradation studies have shown how O 2 concentrations in flue gas and, to a lesser extent, temperature influence the extent of oxidative degradation. Accurately measuring the O 2 solubility, commonly referred to as dissolved oxygen (DO), in a quick, continuous, and efficient manner in aqueous amine solvents should contribute to determine the effectiveness of mitigation strategies for oxidative degradation. Knowing that commercial PCCC amine solvents contain components beyond water, amine, carbonate species and CO 2 , this investigation was conducted to determine the oxygen solubility changes of common aqueous amines solutions with commonly used and published solvent additives. The impact of carbon loadings with and without the additives was also examined. A commercial dissolved oxygen probe was used to measure the DO concentrations and compared them against standard Winkler Method titration values. The results show that antifoam shows minimal change in [DO]. MBT yielded lower DO values, and NaVO 3 showed a higher DO concentration due to interferences. These results indicate that most common amine solvent additives should be expected to minimally impact oxygen solubility and amine oxidative degradation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Electrochemical Conversion of Carbon Dioxide to Alcohols

The vast quantities of fossil fuels used by our society have led to unprecedented atmospheric carbon dioxide levels with widespread climate impacts. Electrochemical conversion of carbon dioxide to valuable fuels and chemicals is a promising technology to utilize carbon dioxide emitted from coal-fired power plants. In this project, the team developed an integrated electrolyzer system that takes the flue gas from the power plant and produce C2/C3 alcohols (i.e., ethanol and n-propanol) through a two-stage electrolysis process. The pretreated carbon dioxide from the flue gas is converted into carbon monoxide by the first stage carbon dioxide electrolysis, followed by the second stage where the produced carbon monoxide is further converted into liquid C2/C3 alcohols with a high selectivity and energy efficiency. Impact and anticipated fate of flue gas contaminants, such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, on the proposed technology was also evaluated. Furthermore, a full analysis of economics and life-cycle of the carbon dioxide electrolysis technology for carbon dioxide emissions mitigation from coal-fired power plants was conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility and carbon dioxide mitigation potential of the proposed technology.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Automated, Unmanned Detection and Quantification of Fugitive Methane Emissions

Compressor stations used to move natural gas are one of the largest sources of fugitive methane emissions in the midstream sector, accounting for approximately 50% of all fugitive emissions (Zimmerle et al., 2015). This problem is most widespread at reciprocating compressors (Subramanian et al., 2015) where faulty seals are a key contributor to methane emissions (Johnson et al., 2015). As such, there is a significant need for a robust technology that could provide an early indication of an unexpected emission. Equally important, the technology needs to be able to account for biogenic versus anthropogenic sources of methane. One means of indirectly making this determination, is to leverage optical technologies that can autonomously pinpoint the source of such leaks. This presentation discusses recent work funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), focused on the development of an innovative remote sensing technology that can reliably and autonomously detect fugitive methane emissions in near real-time, using computer vision and deep learning. The technology called the Smart Methane Leak Detection (SLED/M) system was initially developed to monitor facilities such as compressor stations in a stationary, pan-tilt-zoom configuration. The system has recently been adapted to monitor facilities from an unmanned aerial system (UAS). The speed and maneuverability of UAS platforms are attractive to leak detection and repair program operators, but introduce several challenges. Many existing methane detection algorithms rely on mostly static backgrounds becoming unusable with motion. In addition, top-down views of fugitive methane emissions present differently in Optical Gas Imagers (OGI) compared to looking across the plume. Our work has focused on overcoming these challenges, enhancing the operators ability to detect methane emissions, and pinpoint their sources. Another recent adaptation to SLED/M is the ability to quantify methane emissions using passive sensors (OGI, thermal camera), environmental conditions, plume modeling, and deep learning. SLED/M advances the state-of-the-art for methane emission detection and quantification by focusing on three key critical criteria for effective methane emission mitigation: (1) autonomy (no need for a human to be in the loop), (2) high reliability (low false alarm rates), and (3) real-time performance. Results from this work will be presented.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Deploying a Publicly Available and Living National Oil and Gas Well Geodatabase: CO2-Locate: A Dynamic Database & Tool

Emission mitigation and safe geologic carbon storage require an understanding of local wellbore infrastructure, yet well data are siloed across many entities. Addressing this challenge, the National Energy Technology Laboratory published CO2-Locate, an integrated and dynamic national wellbore geodatabase. CO2-Locate offers up to date well data spanning more than 40 federal, state, and tribal entities, as well as spatially summarized insights designed to support commercial, regulatory, and research communities as they strive to curb climate change through a national energy transition.

Pfander, Isabelle↗

ClimGen: Learning the Forcing-Response Relationship in Climate System

Solar Radiation Management (SRM) is emerging as a potential geoengineering strategy to address the anthropogenic impact on climate, but its effective implementation requires an iterative and large ensemble of highly accurate and efficient climate projections. Traditional climate projections rely on executing computationally demanding and time-consuming numerical climate models. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) aim to enhance these approaches by emulating traditional methods. In this work, we propose a novel framework for directly learning the relationship between solar radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding surface temperature response. To evaluate the feasibility of this direct ML-based projection, we developed a dataset using an intermediate complexity model, incorporating a comprehensive suite of different forcing patterns and evaluation metrics to rigorously assess the ML model’s performance. We introduce a Conditional Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (cDDPM) for this task, which demonstrates encouraging skill in representing climate statistics under previously unseen forcing patterns. This approach provides a promising pathway for direct climate projections by accurately learning the forcing-response relationship, with a wide range of applications in impact mitigation, emissions policy design, and SRM strategies.

Chen, Tse-Chun [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)] (ORCID:↗

Mitigating life cycle GHG emissions of roads to be built through 2030: Case study of a Chinese province

We report the expansion of road networks in emerging economies such as China causes significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This development is conflicting with China's commitment to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus, there is a need to better understand life cycle emissions of road infrastructure and opportunities to mitigate these emissions. Existing impact studies of roads in developing countries do not address recycled materials, improved pavement maintenance, or pavement-vehicle interaction and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Combining firsthand information from Chinese road construction engineers with publicly available data, this paper estimates a comprehensive account of GHG emissions of the road pavement network to be constructed in the next ten years in the Shandong province in Northern China. Further, we estimate the potential of GHG emission reductions achievable under three scenario sets: maintenance optimization, alternative pavement material replacement, and EV adoption. Results show that the life cycle GHG emissions of highways and Class 1–4 roads to be constructed in the next 10 years amount to 147 Mt CO2-eq. Considering the use phase in our model reveals that it is the dominant stage in terms of emissions, largely due to pavement-vehicle interaction. Vehicle electrification can only moderately mitigate these emissions. Other stages, such as materials production and road maintenance and rehabilitation, contribute substantially to GHG emissions as well, highlighting the importance of optimizing the management of these stages. Surprisingly, longer, not shorter maintenance intervals, yield significant emission reductions. Another counter-intuitive finding is that thicker and more material-intensive pavement surfaces cause lower emissions overall. Taken together, optimal maintenance and rehabilitation schedules, alternative material use, and vehicle electrification provide GHG reduction potentials of 11%, 4%–16% and 2%–6%, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels

Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigation of Acute Ammonia Emissions With Biochar During Swine Manure Agitation Before Pump-Out: Proof-of-the-Concept

Ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from animal agriculture can cause eutrophication of water ecosystems and are precursors to secondary particulate matter (PM 2 .5 ). NH 3 emissions from stored swine manure represent nutrient loss affecting the fertilizing value of manure. The short-term emission bursts occur when farmers agitate manure before emptying storage and fertilizing fields. There is no proven technology to mitigate gaseous emissions during agitation, while the hazards of acute releases (e.g., H 2 S) are well-known. Biochar mitigates NH 3 emissions from manure over the long-term. The objective of this research was to evaluate the mitigation of acute NH 3 emissions during/after agitation. Two biochars, highly alkaline and porous (HAP from corn stover) and red oak (RO), were tested. The 6 and 12 mm-thick layers of biochar powder were surficial applied followed by 3 min agitation. NH 3 concentrations were measured before/during/after agitation. Mitigation was assessed by comparing: (i) the maximum (peak) flux, (ii) total emission (from agitation start till NH 3 concentration returned to the before-agitation), and (iii) the total emissions during agitation. The 12 mm HAP significantly ( p < 0.05) reduced (i–iii) by 63, 70, and 85%, respectively. The 6 mm HAP significantly reduced (i–iii) by 76, 75, and 78%, respectively. The 12 mm RO significantly reduced (i–iii) by 9, 53, and 57%, respectively. The 6 mm RO significantly reduced (i–iii) by 61, 86, and 63%, respectively. The NH 3 emission kinetics model confirmed that a 6 mm dose was just as effective as the larger dose. More research is needed to optimize and scale-up mitigating emissions and retention of nutrients in manure with biochar.

Chen, Baitong↗

Revisiting “Additional Carbon”: Tracking Atmosphere–Ecosystem Carbon Exchange to Establish Mitigation and Negative Emissions From Bio-Based Systems

Climate stabilization plans rely heavily on advanced bioenergy and bioproducts for substitution of fossil-based energy sources and materials, and increasingly, for negative emissions via the direct sequestration of biogenic carbon. Yet, there remain persistent, largely unresolved critiques of bioenergy assessment methodology, particularly in the areas of land use and biogenic carbon accounting. The concept of “additional carbon” calls for evaluating the climate performance of bio-based systems by whether feedstock production creates measurable new local agro-ecosystem uptake of carbon from the atmosphere. This concept is challenging to operationalize for first-generation biofuels, and has largely been advanced as a negative critique. However, carbon additionality is more straightforward to establish—and less critical to overall system mitigation performance—in advanced bioenergy systems. In this Perspective, I review the additional carbon critique, and why it is analytically challenging to address in first-generation biofuel systems based on conventional food crops with large existing markets. Next, I make a case that carbon additionality (1) is more readily achievable with cellulosic feedstocks, (2) is more directly observable for dedicated biomass crops, and (3) is not a strict requirement for achieving net mitigation in carbon-negative bio-based systems. I end by discussing how centering atmosphere–ecosystem carbon exchanges in bio-based system assessment could create new opportunities for enterprise-scale performance monitoring and verification, augmenting and diversifying the current reliance on model-based life-cycle assessment approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigations into Plasma-Mediated Decomposition of Organoiodide Species as a Pretreatment for Mitigation of Radioiodine Emissions

A plasma-mediated pretreatment step is proposed to decompose methyl iodide (CH 3 I) for facilitating the capture of the iodine radioisotopes present in off-gas streams from used nuclear fuel reprocessing operations. Simulated CH 3 I gas streams were exposed to dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma in a quartz glass continuous-flow reactor using copper electrodes. The kinetics of decomposition of CH 3 I in nitrogen was investigated by varying the applied voltage, inlet concentration, and residence time. The rate of decomposition was proportional to CH 3 I concentration and increased as the applied potential was increased. This effect was incorporated in the kinetics through the dependence of the rate constant on the applied electric field. Decomposition of CH 3 I was not affected by moisture, and the DBD pretreatment is likely to be similarly effective in an air environment as well; however, the results were confounded by a plasma-mediated reaction between nitrogen and oxygen.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A cost comparison of various hourly-reliable and net-zero hydrogen production pathways in the United States

Hydrogen (H 2 ) as an energy carrier may play a role in various hard-to-abate subsectors, but to maximize emission reductions, supplied hydrogen must be reliable, low-emission, and low-cost. Here, we build a model that enables direct comparison of the cost of producing net-zero, hourly-reliable hydrogen from various pathways. To reach net-zero targets, we assume upstream and residual facility emissions are mitigated using negative emission technologies. For the United States (California, Texas, and New York), model results indicate next-decade hybrid electricity-based solutions are lower cost ($2.02-$2.88/kg) than fossil-based pathways with natural gas leakage greater than 4% ($2.73-$5.94/kg). These results also apply to regions outside of the U.S. with a similar climate and electric grid. However, when omitting the net-zero emission constraint and considering the U.S. regulatory environment, electricity-based production only achieves cost-competitiveness with fossil-based pathways if embodied emissions of electricity inputs are not counted under U.S. Tax Code Section 45V guidance.

08 HYDROGEN↗