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DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” (v3)

This data package is associated with the publication “Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics within Water-Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Butler et al. 2025). This study developed the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework to tag input precipitation and estimate water transit times and hydrologic tracers. SPIT tags all precipitation events at regular intervals over an extended period (monthly tags over seven years) in a hydrologic model from 2016-2022. SPIT is applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites across the continental United States to calculate transit time distributions (TTD) and derive from these mean transit times (MTT), fractions of young water (Fyw), and hydrologic tracer concentrations in stream water (δ18O) within a water-tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast (WT-WRF-Hydro) model with national water model (NWM) configurations. We go on to validate WT-WRF-Hydro estimates against Butler et al. (2023), who analyzed the same NEON sites using stable water isotope data to estimate water transit times. This new tracking method provides a detailed picture of water movement and helps improve predictions about water availability in the future. This data package was originally published in January 2025. It was updated May 2025 (v2; new and modified files) and October 2025 (v3; new and modified files). File and folder names were not revised to indicate changes. See the change history section in the readme for more details. This data package contains the data and scripts used to develop the SPIT framework WT-WRF-Hydro (Water Tagging Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic) model and is associated with the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/zbutler33/SPIT-Framework. This data package contains five parent folders: (1) “Manipulated_outputs”, (2) “Metadata”, (3) “Observed”, (4) “Outputs”, and (5) “Scripts”. Each of these parent folders contains additional subfolders and files. Please see the FLMD (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_flmd.csv”) for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. See the data dictionary (“v*_Butler_2024_WT_WRF_Hydro_dd.csv”) for definitions and units of all of the tabular (files ending in “.csv” and ".tsv") column headers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Study of Enhanced Geothermal System Supply Curves Across CONUS from Two Temperature Models Using the Renewable Energy Potential Model (reV)

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) have had recent breakthroughs within the geothermal sector. These breakthroughs are reflected in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 2024 Annual Technology Baseline and will result in updated EGS supply curves (i.e., the available resource capacity relative to cost). Our research uses NREL's Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to compare EGS supply curves across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for two different temperature models: the Stanford temperature model (STM) and the Southern Methodist University temperature model (SMU). The reV model provides the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) at a consistent resolution across CONUS, taking into consideration transmission costs and constraints as well as technical exclusions pertaining to sensitive cultural, ecological, or infrastructure locations. In addition to a countrywide analysis of both models, we also conducted a regional analysis of Texas. We observed the STM had, on average, lower temperatures across different depths, resulting in slightly higher mean and median LCOEs as compared to the SMU temperature model at the same depths. In the regional analysis for Texas, however, when we compared only the common points between the two temperature models, the STM had lower median and mean LCOEs compared to SMU due to higher temperatures at depths greater than 5 km.

enhanced geothermal systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evidence for the existence and ecological relevance of fast-cycling mineral-associated organic matter

Longstanding theories and models classify mineral-associated organic matter as the large ( ~ 60%) but slow-cycling and persistent portion of soil organic matter. Strong physico-chemical interactions and diffusion limitations restrict the turnover of mineral-associated organic matter, allowing carbon and nitrogen bound therein to persist in soil for as long as centuries to millennia. However, mineral-associated organic matter is a chemically and functionally diverse pool with a substantial portion cycling at relatively fast (i.e., minutes to years) timescales. Despite a growing body of evidence for the heterogenous and multi-pool nature of mineral-associated organic matter, we lack consensus on how to conceptualize and directly quantify fast-cycling mineral-associated organic matter and its ecological significance. We demonstrate that the dynamic qualities of fast-cycling mineral-associated organic matter vary based on 1) the chemistry of the mineral particles and organic matter, 2) the complex set of interactions between organic matter and the mineral matrix, and 3) the presence and strength of destabilizing forces that lead to decomposition or loss of mineral-associated organic matter (i.e., plant-microbe interactions, agricultural intensification, and climate change). Finally, we discuss potential implications and research opportunities for how we measure, manage, and model the dynamic subfraction of this otherwise persistent pool of soil organic matter.

Biological and medical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structured interactions drive abrupt transitions in the spatial organization of microbial communities

Bacteria possess diverse mechanisms to regulate their motility in response to environmental and physiological signals, enabling them to navigate complex habitats and adapt their behavior. Some of these mechanisms are species specific and enable cells to modulate their movement based on the ecological identity of neighboring species. Here, we introduce a model in which bacteria interact via local signals that either enhance or suppress the motility of neighboring cells depending on species type. Through large-scale simulations and a coarse-grained stochastic model, we demonstrate the emergence of a sharp transition driven by nucleation processes: increasing the density of motility-suppressing interactions drives the system from a fully mixed, motile phase to a state characterized by large, stationary bacterial clusters. Remarkably, in systems with a large number of interacting species, this transition can be triggered solely by altering the structure of the motility-regulation interaction matrix while maintaining species and interaction densities constant. In particular, we find that heterogeneous and modular interactions promote the transition more readily than homogeneous random ones. These findings add a dimension to the theory of motility-induced phase separation and contribute to the ongoing effort to understand microbial interactions, suggesting that structured, nonrandom ones may be key to reproducing commonly observed spatial patterns in microbial communities.

bacterial communities↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) to Estimate Water Transit Times and Hydrologic Tracer Dynamics Within Water‐Tagging Enabled Hydrologic Models

Determining the age distribution of water exiting a catchment is important for understanding groundwater storage and mixing. New water-tagging capabilities within models track precipitation events as they move through simulated storages, yet forward modeling of individual events may not systematically capture the full transit time distribution (TTD). Here, we present a “sequential precipitation input tagging” (SPIT) framework to tag all input precipitation at regular intervals during extended model simulations. Monthly tags over 7 years were applied at six National Ecological Observatory Network sites to calculate TTDs and derive mean virtual tracer age, $\overline{T_{V}}$, fractions of young water, F yw , and hydrologic tracer concentrations (water isotopes δ 18 O and δ 2 H) within a tagging enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecast hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro). Throughout seven simulation years, the fraction of simulated discharge derived from tagged events, F tag , increased each year, with the final year's F tag ranging from 66% to 100% and highlights the need to apply SPIT over many years to understand TTDs. When the F tag was >75%, simulated $\overline{T_{V}}$ ranged 179–923 days and F yw 0.6%–23.9%, with daily values exhibiting a power-law relationship with precipitation, discharge, and groundwater. Through implementation of SPIT, we find this hydrologic model configuration performs poorly in estimation of $\overline{T_{V}}$ and F yw (root mean squared error of 469 days and 14.4% respectively), suggesting it misrepresents subsurface mixing. Thus, the SPIT framework provides a reproducible approach to calculate watershed transit times within tagging enabled models and thereby assess and improve representation of hydrologic processes.

fraction of young water↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reviews and syntheses: Opportunities for robust use of peak intensities from high-resolution mass spectrometry in organic matter studies

Abstract. Earth's biogeochemical cycles are intimately tied to the biotic and abiotic processing of organic matter (OM). Spatial and temporal variations in OM chemistry are often studied using direct infusion, high-resolution Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS). An increasingly common approach is to use ecological metrics (e.g., within-sample diversity) to summarize high-dimensional FTMS data, notably Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). However, problems can arise when FTMS peak-intensity data are used in a way that is analogous to abundances in ecological analyses (e.g., species abundance distributions). Using peak-intensity data in this way requires the assumption that intensities act as direct proxies for concentrations. Here, we show that comparisons of the same peak across samples (within-peak) may carry information regarding variations in relative concentration, but comparing different peaks (between-peak) within or between samples does not. We further developed a simulation model to study the quantitative implications of using peak intensities to compute ecological metrics (e.g., intensity-weighted mean properties and diversity) that rely on information about both within-peak and between-peak shifts in relative abundance. We found that, despite analytical limitations in linking concentration to intensity, ecological metrics often perform well in terms of providing robust qualitative inferences and sometimes quantitatively accurate estimates of diversity and mean molecular characteristics. We conclude with recommendations for the robust use of peak intensities for natural organic matter studies. A primary recommendation is the use and extension of the simulation model to provide objective guidance on the degree to which conceptual and quantitative inferences can be made for a given analysis of a given dataset. Broad use of this approach can help ensure rigorous scientific outcomes from the use of FTMS peak intensities in environmental applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

DVMDOSTEM v0.8.3: a terrestrial ecosystem model designed to represent arctic, boreal and permafrost ecosystem dynamics

The impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems are the result of complex physical and ecological processes operating and interacting at a variety of spatio-temporal scales, that can be represented in process-based ecosystem models. DVMDOSTEM is an advanced process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) designed to study ecosystem responses to climate changes and disturbances. It has a particular focus on permafrost regions (i.e. regions characterized by soils that stay partially frozen all year round for at least two consecutive years), encompassing boreal, arctic, and alpine landscapes. The model couples two previous versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) (McGuire et al., 1992): DVMTEM that includes a dynamic vegetation module (DVM) (E. S. Euskirchen et al., 2009), and DOSTEM that includes a dynamic organic soil module (DOS) (H. Genet et al., 2013; Yi et al., 2010). DVMDOSTEM simulates processes at yearly and monthly scales, with some physical processes operating at an even finer temporal resolution. Its versatility allows for site-specific to regional simulations, making it valuable for predicting shifts in permafrost, vegetation, and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. While DVMDOSTEM has been described in the methods sections of many manuscripts, this paper is the first stand alone description of DVMDOSTEM, independent of a particular scientific investigation.

Carman, Tobey B. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (↗

DOE OSTI2025

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic communities as a model for determining interactions between a biofertilizer chassis organism and native microbial consortia

Biofertilizers are critical for sustainable agriculture because they can replace ecologically disruptive chemical fertilizers while improving the trajectory of soil and plant health. However, for improving deployment, the persistence of biofertilizers within native soil consortia must be elucidated and enhanced. In this study we characterized a high-throughput, modular, and automation-friendly in vitro approach to screen for biofertilizer persistence within soil-derived consortia after co-cultivation with stable synthetic soil microbial communities (SynComs) obtained through a top-down cultivation process. Here, we profiled ~1200 SynComs isolated from various soil sources and cultivated in divergent media types, and we detected significant phylogenetic diversity (e.g. Shannon index >4) and richness (observed richness >400) across these communities. We observed high reproducibility in SynCom community structure from common soil and media types, which provided a testbed for assessing biofertilizer persistence within representative native consortia. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the screening method described herein can be coupled with microbial engineering to efficiently identify soil-derived SynComs in which an engineered biofertilizer organism (i.e. Bacillus subtilis) persists. Accordingly, we discovered that B. subtilis persisted in ~10% of SynComs that generally followed the diversity–invasion principle. Additionally, our approach enabled analysis of the ecological impact of B. subtilis inoculation on SynCom structure and profile alterations in community diversity and richness associated with the presence of a genetically modified model bacterium. Ultimately, this work has established a modular pipeline that could be integrated into a variety of microbiology/microbiome-relevant workflows or related applications that would benefit from assessment of the persistence of a specific organism of interest and its interaction with native consortia.

biofertilizers↗

DOE OSTI2024

Expansion of high-latitude deciduous forests driven by interactions between climate warming and fire: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic publication. More information in the related references. The dataset is a model (ecosys) output used in a study that examined the potential future shifts in high-latitude vegetation types (PFTs) driven by changes in 21st century climate and fire. The study highlights the importance of mechanistically representing differences in plant functional traits on current and possible 21st century trajectories of Alaskan PFTs. This dataset package includes 13 files in pdf, csv, and nc formats.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phylogeny, morphology, virulence, ecology, and host range of Ordospora pajunii (Ordosporidae), a microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia spp.

ABSTRACT The impacts of microsporidia on host individuals are frequently subtle and can be context dependent. A key example of the latter comes from a recently discovered microsporidian symbiont of Daphnia , the net impact of which was found to shift from negative to positive based on environmental context. Given this, we hypothesized low baseline virulence of the microsporidian; here, we investigated the impact of infection on hosts in controlled conditions and the absence of other stressors. We also investigated its phylogenetic position, ecology, and host range. The genetic data indicate that the symbiont is Ordospora pajunii , a newly described microsporidian parasite of Daphnia . We show that O. pajunii infection damages the gut, causing infected epithelial cells to lose microvilli and then rupture. The prevalence of this microsporidian could be high (up to 100% in the lab and 77% of adults in the field). Its overall virulence was low in most cases, but some genotypes suffered reduced survival and/or reproduction. Susceptibility and virulence were strongly host-genotype dependent. We found that North American O. pajunii were able to infect multiple Daphnia species, including the European species Daphnia longispina , as well as Ceriodaphnia spp. Given the low, often undetectable virulence of this microsporidian and potentially far-reaching consequences of infections for the host when interacting with other pathogens or food, this Daphnia–O. pajunii symbiosis emerges as a valuable system for studying the mechanisms of context-dependent shifts between mutualism and parasitism, as well as for understanding how symbionts might alter host interactions with resources. IMPORTANCE The net outcome of symbiosis depends on the costs and benefits to each partner. Those can be context dependent, driving the potential for an interaction to change between parasitism and mutualism. Understanding the baseline fitness impact in an interaction can help us understand those shifts; for an organism that is generally parasitic, it should be easier for it to become a mutualist if its baseline virulence is relatively low. Recently, a microsporidian was found to become beneficial to its Daphnia hosts in certain ecological contexts, but little was known about the symbiont (including its species identity). Here, we identify it as the microsporidium Ordospora pajunii . Despite the parasitic nature of microsporidia, we found O. pajunii to be, at most, mildly virulent; this helps explain why it can shift toward mutualism in certain ecological contexts and helps establish O. pajunii is a valuable model for investigating shifts along the mutualism-parasitism continuum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ecological connectivity and habitat loss shape patterns of genetic diversity in a threatened salamander

Context The maintenance of genetic diversity is essential for preserving adaptive potential in populations, yet it is increasingly threatened by landscape alteration. The field of landscape genetics offers a framework for assessing how patch-level landscape conditions, modeled at multiple scales, influence genetic diversity. Objectives We sought to assess how local environmental features and connectivity influence genetic diversity across 74 four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) breeding wetlands in the southeastern United States. Methods Using next-generation sequencing data and hierarchical Bayesian models, we examined genome-wide heterozygosity in relation to local landscape features and ecological connectivity. We also assessed the scale of effect of landscape features and tested for temporal lag effects. Results Genetic diversity was lower in wetlands with higher levels of historic deforestation and lower connectivity. An interaction between deforestation and connectivity indicated that deforestation had stronger negative effects in isolated wetlands but weaker effects in well-connected wetlands. Accounting for scale of effect and temporal lags was critical for detecting these relationships. Conclusions Our analyses highlight the importance of assessing the spatial scale (scale of effect) and temporal lag of landscape features to detect key drivers of genetic diversity. In line with population genetic theory, our results indicate that the genetic consequences of habitat loss do not affect populations uniformly and are most severe in isolated populations where gene flow cannot buffer against loss of diversity. Altogether, we highlight the importance of considering the interaction of habitat loss and connectivity in conservation genetic management.

Hemidactylium scutatum↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increasing aggregate size reduces single-cell organic carbon incorporation by hydrogel-embedded wetland microbes

Abstract Microbial degradation of organic carbon in sediments is impacted by the availability of oxygen and substrates for growth. To better understand how particle size and redox zonation impact microbial organic carbon incorporation, techniques that maintain spatial information are necessary to quantify elemental cycling at the microscale. In this study, we produced hydrogel microspheres of various diameters (100, 250, and 500 μm) and inoculated them with an aerobic heterotrophic bacterium isolated from a freshwater wetland (Flavobacterium sp.), and in a second experiment with a microbial community from an urban lacustrine wetland. The hydrogel-embedded microbial populations were incubated with 13C-labeled substrates to quantify organic carbon incorporation into biomass via nanoSIMS. Additionally, luminescent nanosensors enabled spatially explicit measurements of oxygen concentrations inside the microspheres. The experimental data were then incorporated into a reactive-transport model to project long-term steady-state conditions. Smaller (100 μm) particles exhibited the highest microbial cell-specific growth per volume, but also showed higher absolute activity near the surface compared to the larger particles (250 and 500 μm). The experimental results and computational models demonstrate that organic carbon availability was not high enough to allow steep oxygen gradients and as a result, all particle sizes remained well-oxygenated. Our study provides a foundational framework for future studies investigating spatially dependent microbial activity in aggregates using isotopically labeled substrates to quantify growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ecological Insights from Transferable Plant Biomass Mapping across the Arctic using High-resolution Structure-from-Motion and LiDAR Data

Warmer temperatures, permafrost thaw, and increased wildfire activity are driving rapid ecological change across the Arctic, significantly altering plant productivity and aboveground biomass (AGB). These rapid changes highlight the urgent need to improve monitoring of vegetation dynamics in the Earth’s northern ecosystems, where high spatiotemporal heterogeneity occurs at scales finer than those captured by traditional satellite observations. The growing use of Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UASs) presents an opportunity to overcome this limitation. Yet, the diversity of UAS platforms, sensors, and data collection and processing workflows presents challenges for developing standardized, generalizable approaches. To address this challenge, we compiled 672 AGB plots co-located with 183 UAS-based Structure-from-Motion (SfM) or Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys collected across the Arctic. Here, we: (1) evaluated the generalizability of UAS-derived canopy structure derived from high-resolution SfM and LiDAR for estimating AGB, (2) assessed scaling errors and their sources in two recent satellite-based AGB products derived from Landsat and MODIS, and (3) demonstrated the use of high-resolution AGB maps to quantify biomass variation across tundra plant functional types (PFTs) and to monitor post-fire recovery. Our results show that both SfM and LiDAR accurately captured AGB and its variability across tundra PFTs using a Random Forest (RF) model (overall RMSE: 0.336 kg/m2), with mapping performance varying slightly by region and data source. Using UAS-derived AGB maps as a benchmark, we identified systematic biases in satellite-derived AGB products, largely attributable to the magnitude of AGB and structural heterogeneity within coarse-resolution pixels. Applying our model to repeat UAS surveys following a tundra fire on Seward Peninsula, we observed rapid AGB recovery in non-shrub patches, with biomass recovering to pre-fire levels within 2 years. In contrast, shrub patches recovered more slowly, with AGB gains continuing over 2–4 years through both in-patch growth and lateral expansion (via dispersal) into remaining burned areas. Overall, these findings demonstrate the generalizability of UAS-based SfM and LiDAR data for estimating tundra AGB and highlight the potential of our approach to be broadly applied to generate high-quality AGB data for ecological monitoring and model benchmarking across the Arctic.

Yang, Daryl [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000317057823)↗

DOE OSTI2026

TES: Modelling Microbes to Predict Post-Fire Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest across Burn Severities (Exploratory Proposal)

Wildfires in boreal ecosystems represent a globally significant ecological process that is expected to be sensitive to changing climate as well as forest management strategies, but is currently insufficiently understood and represented in models. We sought to determine whether linking belowground microbial community composition, size, and activity to aboveground properties of burn severity and plant community composition (upland jack pine and upland spruce) would allow us to better model post-fire soil CO 2 fluxes using the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model. We used an integrated modelling experimental approach, with mechanistic laboratory experiments designed to inform models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗