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At least 73 records · Page 4

Biomimetic Models for An Ecological Approach to Massively-Deployed Sensor Networks

Promises of ubiquitous control of the physical environment by massively-deployed wireless sensor networks open avenues for new applications that will redefine the way we live and work. Due to small size and low cost of sensor devices, visionaries promise systems enabled by deployment of massive numbers of sensors ubiquitous throughout our environment working in concert. Recent research has concentrated on developing techniques for performing relatively simple tasks with minimal energy expense, assuming some form of centralized control. Unfortunately, centralized control is not conducive to parallel activities and does not scale to massive size networks. Execution of simple tasks in sparse networks will not lead to the sophisticated applications predicted. We propose a new way of looking at massively-deployed sensor networks, motivated by lessons learned from the way biological ecosystems are organized. We demonstrate that in such a model, fully distributed data aggregation can be performed in a scalable fashion in massively deployed sensor networks, where motes operate on local information, making local decisions that are aggregated across the network to achieve globally-meaningful effects. We show that such architectures may be used to facilitate communication and synchronization in a fault-tolerant manner, while balancing workload and required energy expenditure throughout the network.

Jones, Kennie H.

A model of Martian ecology

Hypothetical anaerobic ecological system for Mars environment, and suggested life detection experiments

LIFE DETECTOR

An approach to the mathematical modelling of a controlled ecological life support system

An approach to the design of a computer based model of a closed ecological life-support system suitable for use in extraterrestrial habitats is presented. The model is based on elemental mass balance and contains representations of the metabolic activities of biological components. The model can be used as a tool in evaluating preliminary designs for closed regenerative life support systems and as a method for predicting the behavior of such systems.

Averner, M. M.

Estimating the seasonal carbon source-sink geography of a natural, steady-state terrestrial biosphere

The estimation of the seasonal dynamics of biospheric-carbon sources and sinks to be used as an input to global atmospheric CO2 studies and models is discussed. An ecological biosphere model is given and the advantages of the model are examined. Monthly maps of estimated biospheric carbon source and sink regions and estimates of total carbon fluxes are presented for an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere. The results are compared with those from other models. It is suggested that, despite maximum variations of atmospheric CO2 in boreal latitudes, the enormous contributions of tropical wet-dry regions to global atmospheric CO2 seasonality can not be ignored.

Box, Elgene O.

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Soja, Amber J.

Stochastic models of cover class dynamics

Investigations related to satellite remote sensing of vegetation have been concerned with questions of signature identification and extension, cover inventory accuracy, and change detection and monitoring. Attention is given to models of ecological succession, present directions in successional modeling and analysis, nondynamic spatial models, issues in the analysis of spatial data, and aspects of spatial modeling. Issues in time-series analysis are considered along with dynamic spatial models, and problems of model specification and identification.

Barringer, T. H.

Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting Tech Paper: Modeling Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus) Habitat Suitability along the Southern Bhutan Border with NASA Earth Observations

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are a flagship species essential for the functioning of forest ecosystems, and they also have cultural significance in Bhutan. Elephants receive the highest legal protection as listed under Schedule I of the Bhutan Forests and Nature Conservation Act, 1995. Yet, they face threats of extinction due to poaching for ivory as well as the loss and fragmentation of their habitat. Due to the recent clearing of forests and the growing populations in these areas, there has been an increase in incidents of human-elephant conflict. These conflicts have been detrimental to farmer’s annual harvests and livelihoods and have led to retaliatory killing and injury of elephants in southern Bhutan. The DEVELOP Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting team partnered with the Bhutan Foundation and Bhutan Tiger Center to help address this problem. The team integrated NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to acquire information on land cover change and elephant habitat suitability along the southern border of Bhutan. The team utilized Esri ArcGIS Pro and Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) for data analysis, modeling, and visualization. The team used elephant occurrence data and environmental variables to model current habitat suitability for migrating elephant populations. This analysis provided partners with maps to inform decisions about the placement and conservation of elephant corridors and helped build their capacity to use satellite data for future studies and project planning.

Palchen Wangchuk

Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting Project Summary - Modeling Asian Elephant (Elephas Maximus) Habitat Suitability along the Southern Bhutan Border with NASA Earth Observations

Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are a flagship species essential for the functioning of forest ecosystems, and they also have cultural significance in Bhutan. Elephants receive the highest legal protection as listed under Schedule I of the Bhutan Forests and Nature Conservation Act, 1995. Yet, they face threats of extinction due to poaching for ivory as well as the loss and fragmentation of their habitat. Due to the recent clearing of forests and the growing populations in these areas, there has been an increase in incidents of human-elephant conflict. These conflicts have been detrimental to farmer’s annual harvests and livelihoods and have led to retaliatory killing and injury of elephants in southern Bhutan. The DEVELOP Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting team partnered with the Bhutan Foundation and Bhutan Tiger Center to help address this problem. The team integrated NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) to acquire information on land cover change and elephant habitat suitability along the southern border of Bhutan. The team utilized Esri ArcGIS Pro and Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) for data analysis, modeling, and visualization. The team used elephant occurrence data and environmental variables to model current habitat suitability for migrating elephant populations. This analysis provided partners with maps to inform decisions about the placement and conservation of elephant corridors and helped build their capacity to use satellite data for future studies and project planning.

DEVELOP Project Summary

An integrated remote sensing approach for identifying ecological range sites

A model approach for identifying ecological range sites was applied to high elevation sagebrush-dominated rangelands on Parker Mountain, in south-central Utah. The approach utilizes map information derived from both high altitude color infrared photography and LANDSAT digital data, integrated with soils, geological, and precipitation maps. Identification of the ecological range site for a given area requires an evaluation of all relevant environmental factors which combine to give that site the potential to produce characteristic types and amounts of vegetation. A table is presented which allows the user to determine ecological range site based upon an integrated use of the maps which were prepared. The advantages of identifying ecological range sites through an integrated photo interpretation/LANDSAT analysis are discussed.

Jaynes, R. A.

Requirements for psychological models to support design: Towards ecological task analysis

Cognitive engineering is largely concerned with creating environmental designs to support skillful and effective human activity. A set of necessary conditions are proposed for psychological models capable of supporting this enterprise. An analysis of the psychological nature of the design product is used to identify a set of constraints that models must meet if they can usefully guide design. It is concluded that cognitive engineering requires models with resources for describing the integrated human-environment system, and that these models must be capable of describing the activities underlying fluent and effective interaction. These features are required in order to be able to predict the cognitive activity that will be required given various design concepts, and to design systems that promote the acquisition of fluent, skilled behavior. These necessary conditions suggest that an ecological approach can provide valuable resources for psychological modeling to support design. Relying heavily on concepts from Brunswik's and Gibson's ecological theories, ecological task analysis is proposed as a framework in which to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior, and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The framework is described in terms, and illustrated with an example from the previous research on modeling skilled human-environment interaction.

Kirlik, Alex

Control and modeling of a CELSS (Controlled Ecological Life Support System)

Research topics that arise from the conceptualization of control for closed life support systems which are life support systems in which all or most of the mass is recycled are discussed. Modeling and control of uncertain and poorly defined systems, resource allocation in closed life support systems, and control structures or systems with delay and closure are emphasized.

Auslander, D. M.

Characterizing the vertical structure of forests in the Brazilian Amazon

Little is known about the structure of tropical forests despite its critical role in the provisioning of ecosystem services. Here we assess the vertical structure of forests in the Brazilian Amazon with a large-scale airborne LiDAR dataset. We show that fire has greater impact in the lowest forest strata, differently from selective logging and windthrow. We also find that secondary forests quickly recover or even exceed reference areas at the 1-10 m height stratum but that full recovery for the 20-30 m height stratum has not been achieved even after 35 years. Our modeling results suggest that proximity to roads, elevation, precipitation, soil pH, and proportion of sand in the soil are the most important predictors of forest structure. Finally, we identify 5 forest structural types (FSTs) and use them to visualize the spatial distribution of forest structure. This study provides important information for forest monitoring, management, and conservation.

Biogeography

Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: More Models are Better than One

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

wheat

Multimodel Ensembles of Wheat Growth: Many Models are Better than One

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop model scan give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 2438 for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.

model intercomparison

A simple, mass balance model of carbon flow in a controlled ecological life support system

Internal cycling of chemical elements is a fundamental aspect of a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS). Mathematical models are useful tools for evaluating fluxes and reservoirs of elements associated with potential CELSS configurations. A simple mass balance model of carbon flow in CELSS was developed based on data from the CELSS Breadboard project at Kennedy Space Center. All carbon reservoirs and fluxes were calculated based on steady state conditions and modelled using linear, donor-controlled transfer coefficients. The linear expression of photosynthetic flux was replaced with Michaelis-Menten kinetics based on dynamical analysis of the model which found that the latter produced more adequate model output. Sensitivity analysis of the model indicated that accurate determination of the maximum rate of gross primary production is critical to the development of an accurate model of carbon flow. Atmospheric carbon dioxide was particularly sensitive to changes in photosynthetic rate. The small reservoir of CO2 relative to large CO2 fluxes increases the potential for volatility in CO2 concentration. Feedback control mechanisms regulating CO2 concentration will probably be necessary in a CELSS to reduce this system instability.

Garland, Jay L.

Comparison of simulation modeling and satellite techniques for monitoring ecological processes

In 1985 improvements were made in the world climatic data base for modeling and predictive mapping; in individual process models and the overall carbon-balance models; and in the interface software for mapping the simulation results. Statistical analysis of the data base was begun. In 1986 mapping was shifted to NASA-Goddard. The initial approach involving pattern comparisons was modified to a more statistical approach. A major accomplishment was the expansion and improvement of a global data base of measurements of biomass and primary production, to complement the simulation data. The main accomplishments during 1987 included: production of a master tape with all environmental and satellite data and model results for the 1600 sites; development of a complete mapping system used for the initial color maps comparing annual and monthly patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), actual evapotranspiration, net primary productivity, gross primary productivity, and net ecosystem production; collection of more biosphere measurements for eventual improvement of the biological models; and development of some initial monthly models for primary productivity, based on satellite data.

Box, Elgene O.